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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

daninfw04 234 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Big Market Drop Today

    by daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 9:27 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    I think EVC will just be the laggard of the pack until we see a catalyst. Still has the weakest management in the sector. For a merger, the class b shares have to approve and Univision has to approve. I believe we will see some sort of merger of equals with SBSA a likely combination. The synergies would be great. The new CEO of the much smaller SBSA just got a 4+ year contract for $1.75 million. The preferred stockholders because they didn't get paid off got to elect two to the BOD's. I believe something will happen with SBSA whether it is EVC or not. I see 20-30%+ upside for GTN and EVC my favorites. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Big Market Drop Today

    by daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 9:27 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    I believe everything is relative. Right now equities are better than bonds. Rates are already starting to move up over last 2 days. If rates go up a few percent than mortgage rates jump, etc. Housing starts to fall. Market looks ahead 6 months, etc. etc. It's always a cycle. Whether it starts now or later nobody knows. Many experts believe the next 10 years will only return 1.8% per annum. I have seen a few predict 4%. It's almost impossible to have double digit gains when market is selling for multiples of 25+........just common sense and basic math. It's just a bubble IMVHO. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Big Market Drop Today

    by daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 9:27 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    I would add that I wouldn't be surprised if the overall market turned positive before the close. It makes for great trading. I am trading SD and HOV today. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Big Market Drop Today

    by daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 9:27 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Again, I have been 80-85% cash for almost 2 years now. Sounds strange but I have probably made more money being 80-85% cash than if I had been fully invested. The 15-20% I do invest I tend to take more chances and because market has continued to go up my returns have been phenomenal.....about double or triple what I would have done if I had diversified. As I have posted for years now......the broadcast sector tends to go up or down double or triple the overall market. If market is up 1% they tend to be up 2-3% and if market is down 1% they tend to be down 2-3%. The overall market multiples are at about 25. The only time they have been that high has been 1929, 2000 and 2007. You know what happened those years. In 2007-2009 you would have lost everything you had made in the market since 1995. The market will correct or crash again. Whether it is now or in the near future......I am not that smart.......but it will happen. I have no problem holding EVC. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jul 10, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Today may well be the start of what I have been expecting for over a year........the start of a massive 15-20% market correction. However, it could well be a big buying opportunity. The FED minutes yesterday and concern for Q2 market earnings is creating a big downward spike. Europe and especially Portugal are big concerns again. Today will well be a big buying opportunity......or you may wish you had waited. Will be very interesting. I am holding for now. DaninFW

  • We should all be really glad that truth.monger is back. Rarely do you find someone that if you do the opposite of what they say you can get rich. He is such a person. He was still saying EVC was going to be $1 in a few months when EVC hit a low of $4.27.....and then it went to $6.55 less than a month later.......after saying that the Aereo decision was priced in. What a jewel of a call. One for posterity. EVC went up 53.4% after he said to dump. So, if you want to make a fortune simply do the opposite of what he says. BTW, I was still saying strong buy at $4.27.......DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jul 8, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    Over the next 5 weeks we will see all the schedule 13 filings for Q2. Just 8 minutes ago, Hoplite Capital Management that manages just under $4 Billion in assets disclosed it took a new position in Q2 of 6.1 Million shares of SBGI or 8.5% of all shares. They are now the 3rd largest holder of record. With the earnings beat of AA after the close today and this news of SBGI we should be up tomorrow. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I see Dan has been a pumpin!

    by truth.monger Jul 8, 2014 12:52 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 8, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    truth.monger----not that you are pumpin again.....are we going to see your other two aliases as well......golf.messiah and outpissed? It must get confusing to post under three aliases. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    I see Dan has been a pumpin!

    by truth.monger Jul 8, 2014 12:52 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 8, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    I was going to post this morning that you would be back today but knew if I did you might not post. Your masters in the boiler room are paying you to talk trash about EVC again. How funny. Also, stock has moved up almost 20 cents since you posted. Entire sector was down 5-8% this morning. Coming back now that they have shook out the weak hands. Was a steal at $5.85 to $5.90 this morning. Your ignorance never fails to amaze me. EVC is still up 20%+ after Aereo decision and was up over 30% as was entire sector. Boy, you called that one wrong. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    More Upside

    by daninfw04 Jul 4, 2014 9:59 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 7, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    If you currently own EVC unless your cost is higher I would hold for $7.50+. If not currently in I would buy at $6.20+/-. The real buy was at $5+/-........I have an order in for 10,000 USCXW at $3.61 as we speak. I actually got just 7 shares one day, 100 the next and 756 the next. I buy whatever I can cheap on USCXW and am holding for $12+.....DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Gamco had a breakdown of the recently reported increase in PBY shares of 311,625 shares......which included selling almost 60,000 shares. GAMCO bought PBY shares up to $11.21 but sold shares as high as $11.36. They even sold a few at $9.72 but bought as low as $9.80. They are manipulating this stock whenever they can. A great trading stock but you don't want to be holding when they decide it's time to get out. Every week Barron's reports big increases and decreases in holdings and PBY's is in there every week with one company or another. Last week they reported buying more Hillshire shares at prices even more than the final buyout price. They were trying to increase the buyout price and it didn't work out for them. Be very careful if you are trying to invest based on GAMCO. This has been true of them for well over a decade. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    More Upside

    by daninfw04 Jul 4, 2014 9:59 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 4, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    I have been tempted to sell as well but held when it dropped almost $1 from my average cost. Now I hate to sell it when it could make me another $120,000-$200,000......the more I look at this the more I am convinced there is a lot of room to run.....even with the worst management in the sector. The 2015 spectrum auctions is going to put a lot of eyeballs on this sector again. Big investors will be watching how much cash they get from monetizing unused assets. IMVHO after that we will see funds and buyout groups looking to buy cheap assets, to sell the spectrum and assets in pieces. In the next 4 years+/- EVC will double it's current retrans revenue. I have looked at Pulpo very closely. They will be prone to recommend tv and radio advertising on EVC properties. Besides adding to mobile and digital they will add synergies as well. Only a major market selloff could disrupt EVC from hitting $8 a share.......
    I too am watching SD. Will start accumulation at $6.80-$6.90.........also looks like our USCR warrants are about to explode. At $25.95, USCR is 5 cents above the $25.90 top band of resistance. There is no more resistance until we get to lower band at $27.31....if we can hold above $25.90 we could easily pop $1.50-$2.00 in a few days. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    More Upside

    by daninfw04 Jul 4, 2014 9:59 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 4, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    I would add that I am now planning to hold for at least $7.50-$8.00..........I also believe when more details of the Pulpo deal are made public we could see a bump as well. Q2 EVC report due out in next 4-5 weeks and I expect them to blow away guidance and expect. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jul 4, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    I have been doing more research and now am putting EVC back on strong buy rec. Q2 earnings for all companies are expected to see double digit growth after a weak Q1. They are expected to blow away EPS expect which bodes well for overall market. I read yesterday a blog on "cable and broadcast" if you google from William Armstrong which is the news edition for the sector BTW......and it blew me away. He is suing the FCC as I did know but his points make it a slam dunk IMVHO. He points out that the FCC just approved the Gannett/BLC merger and another large merger just in January and then a couple months later says they have to unwind their JSA's.......while cable, telephone and dish companies have the same thing as JSA's.....called "interconnects" where they share expenses as well. He also points out that the quadrennial review is not even over yet.
    He also states that the FCC said they would review expeditiously any deals that required immediate attention. He points out that the FCC did not do that for him....a black man....and that the opportunity for black minority business owners to double the amount of broadcast stations they owned did not happen because the request had a timeline as he was buying from SBGI and it had to be approved or the Albritton deal was dead. SBGI had to do something else instead. A great article which confirms my opinion that the new rules tying the hands of broadcasters merging together will soon be overturned by the courts or Congress or the FCC if they are smart. I would add that Armstrong points out that the FCC said they implemented the new rules to foster minority growth.....but exactly the opposite is happening. The new FCC Chairman is an ex-cable guy with a mission. You can bet he is already planning to leave for some high paying jobs and director seats for the interests that he is backing. It's a shame how our political system works sometime. Clinton has already made over $100 million for speaking in public. A disgrace. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jul 3, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    I just pushed the numbers put out by Wells Fargo and if you believe them we have more room to run. I think a $7.00 to $7.40 target is appropriate. The real money has already been made by those that bought in low 5's........WF yesterday projected the following share price increases. These are based on TODAY's closing prices. MEG alone was up almost 5%. This is what we can expect starting next week if she is right:
    MEG up another 24.6%
    GTN up another 16.4%
    NXST up another 11.3%
    SBGI up another 14.2%
    If these 4 stocks which were also raised to outperform reach these numbers we should easily expect EVC to go up another 15%....that would be $7.38 per share. At $7.38 EVC would only beat previous 52 week high by 2 cents. The other 4 are expected to exceed their 52 week highs by 4-16%+/-. On this basis we could see $8 a share. I have said for a year or so now that I think EVC is worth $7-8 and no more. Perhaps more if they ever start controlling payroll and expenses and quit using EVC as their personal ATM machine. Just food for thought. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jul 3, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    Wells Fargo upgraded whole sector yesterday evening after the close:
    "Media & Cable price targets raised at Wells Fargo
    Wells Fargo raised its price targets for stocks in the Media & Cable space to reflect the Aereo Supreme Court decision and greater comfort with the regulatory environment now that some pending deals have closed. Wells raised its price target range for Gray Television (GTN) to $14-$16 from $13-$15, for Media General (MEG) to $26-$28 from $23-$25, for Nexstar (NXST) to $56-$58 from $50-$52 and for Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to $39-$41 from $32-$34. Wells reiterates Outperform ratings on all four stocks."

    I'm still holding my 120,000 shares and looking to exit now at $6.75-$7.00 but will evaluate again when we hit that area and may hold longer. If the inept management at EVC were to do a press release giving upward guidance on revenues we would pop above $7 almost immediately. They may be waiting till after the World Cup games are over around 6-10-14. Now that many of the deals are getting closed like WF said....they should be starting to look at other companies to buy. Any announcement of M&A would also spike sector again. If the rules get overturned in court or Congress we would rocket also. I see at least 3-4 major positive catalysts and no downside at present......unless overall market correction. And to think truth.monger said we would be $1 in just a few more months........DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Dan OT-SD

    by wow1smallworld Jul 1, 2014 11:12 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 3, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Wow---I am looking at SD this morning. Have said many times I would get in again below $7......I think $6.80-$6.90 is a good entry point for me. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jul 1, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    I think this sector has room to still move up but probably not as quick as the past week. I think EVC is going to be in a range of $6.25 to $6.75 till they release earnings. Will probably move to $7 a day or so report is due out. However, if we could get a report from EVC about increased guidance we could pop to $7.25-$7.50. The fact that the U.S. just moved up to the quarterfinals today means that viewership will be over the top. That means top dollar ad rates and more people watching EVC channels and listening to EVC radio channels. LT this stock should be $7.50-$8.00 next 60-120 days. Again, if the FCC overturns it's new rules, the courts overturn or Congress steps in......this could be a new ballgame with mergers and acquisitions. For the record, still holding 120,000 EVC...........at $6.50+ I may look to trade. JMVHO. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Dan OT-SD

    by wow1smallworld Jul 1, 2014 11:12 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 1, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    I have a cousin that is known as the Father of the Russian Oil Industry. He discovered and mapped out most of the existing oil deposits using satellite technology. He was the only American ever named as an Honorary Russian General. He was buried in Mississippi in full Russian General's Uniform with an AK47 rifle. True Story. He even mapped out most of the caves in Afghanistan before they even heard of Al Queda. When his father died he was exploring Antarctica and it took them 2 weeks to find him to tell him his Father died. There is Mt. Minshew named after him in Antarctica.

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jul 1, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    EVC is getting into that range where I may soon start to trade again. At $6.50 anyone buying last month or so has a 20-30% gain. At $7 a 40% gain. I am taking off strong buy rec after good move this morning. Looks like market maker took out big seller at the close yesterday and we have strong buying today. A block of almost 80,000 shares traded at $6.43 about 30 minutes ago. We then hit $6.47 before backing off. We were within 3 cents of my call. I still think we will break $6.50 today. Good luck to all. DaninFW

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