Value, I have enjoyed the discourse with you and have learned a few things. I decided to research further today. The case before the Supreme Court IS for copyright. If the court rules, historically they won't take up a similar case again. This is it one way or the other IMVHO. Here is an interesting excerpt from a news article yesterday:
"The country’s highest court agreed to hear the appeal in January, and now they’ve set a date. In an argument schedule released on Tuesday, the court said it will hear the case on April 22nd.
The schedule is also notable because Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from the case, according to ScotusBlog.
Such recusals typically arise because a judge has a financial or other type of conflict of interest. This means that the decision could end in a 4-4 tie – in which case, the lower court decision siding with Aereo will be upheld."
This is from the same article:
"Aereo’s future depends on a controversial interpretation of copyright law that received a green light from a New York appeals court, but that the broadcasters want the Supreme Court to declare illegal."
In the brief Aereo just filed they point out that this is really an attack on the Cablevision decision which the court has already ruled on. I have read several other articles today. I now give the Aereo case a 75% chance of winning and taking all. The broadcasters have to win 5 to 3 as a tie is the same as a win for Aereo.
You and I will have to agree to disagree but I see this as a real negative for this sector. The smart money apparently agrees with me.
The broadcasters need to be concerned. This would not be taken to the Supreme Court if it wasn't important. Barry Diller wants a decision because he has mega investors lined up to take this national if Aereo is ruled legal. Sure, nothing will happen overnight, but once it begins.........DaninFW
Value, I will say it again. You could be and probably are 100% right. I was only painting possible landscapes and other scenarios. I want the broadcasters to win. I don't think anyone should be allowed to steal content. But don't forget about that 13%. Less than that can decide elections........which is why new laws are passed. I will also predict this will be the first noticeable year that political ramps up for digital and mobile......which is why SBGI iis being so conservative. The world is changing and if the trend even shows a modest decline for broadcasters they will load their future models with further anticipated declines. DaninFW
As I said LIAR.....I never said that. Post the date and board where I said that. You can't because you are lying again. You really should quit taking stupid pills. DaninFW
Value, you are wearing me out. It will not be a cable company offering an Aereo type service if it comes to that. It will be a separate, non-cable company that will be owned 100% by a holding company owned by the cable company. 100% legal.....very similar to the side car's used by broadcasters now. I even agree with you that a cable company can't own an Aereo service under current law. My proposals circumvent the law, by pass the law, take advantage of loopholes, whatever, but it would be legal. I would add that the law can change. When the broadcasters don't participate in the spectrum auction which I predict they won't until they receive more incentives, there will be many in Congress and the Senate not happy. The cable companies, dish and telcos already want Congress to intervene in retrans. It won't take much to get a few laws changed. In case you forget I once was also a lobbyist. I helped defeat the Gore Bill in 1984 which was going to regulate the cable industry. This isn't my first rodeo amigo. I personally hope nothing changes and Aereo gets defeated. But, we have a current Supreme Court stacked with gays, atheists and womanizers. The GOP thought they had Obamacare defeated also........Never bet the farm on the Supreme Court or Congress. Many wish they hadn't.....DaninFW
If court rules in favor of Aereo it changes everything.....law or no law. That's the point. Yes, broadcasters are content providers......local news and weather. So, if ABC, NBC, CBS, CW, etc. go cable the broadcasters will have about 2 hours a day of original programming and about 22 hours of re-runs. Let me try this one more time. Let's say I own Comcast and the Aereo issue becomes legal. I now set up another Aereo type company just to provide my cable subscribers with access to local broadcasters which I charge them rent for the antenna service. I then remove the local broadcasters from my cable service. I no longer pay retrans fees. I am smart enough to figure this out and there are a lot of people smarter than me out there. In this scenario it is not a cable company providing the service. It is a separate company all together. I dare anyone to say that can't happen. DaninFW
Boy, am I getting tired of explaining this. The cable companies and dish companies pay by subscriber. If they buy Aereo or start a similar service and move customers from a cable based service to an Aereo based service they don't have to pay retrans as it's no longer a subscriber. The technology exists. They would receive two different signals at their head ends, combine the signals and retransmit as one. I'm keeping this simple. CBS probably will still get $2 billion by 2020 as they are a content provider and would simply start a for fee service, Their agreements with current broadcasters will be up in 3-4 years. This will be an evolutionary change not necessarily revolutionary. Again, I am not saying it will happen.....only that it could. I repeat could, could, could, could..........the market doesn't like uncertainty. It is evident in current sector crashing. At some point there will be a bottom. Hopefully soon for those of you still in sector. Gabelli upgraded their rating on LIN and SBGI because they own millions of shares of two stocks that are well below what they paid. They need to get the price up so they can get out. DaninFW
You are an idiot and a liar. I again have never said the cable model would be broken. They would be the main beneficiaries of an Aereo win as they would set up their own similar service. Who do you think pays retrains? Cable companies and dish companies. You need to go to school. The 1st grade bell just rang for you. DaninFW
I don't really like wasting my time with you. I am about to put you on ignore. You know nothing about Comcast. They also own NBC. They make money more ways from sundown. It's called hedging your bets. NBC could very easily become a cable channel in the near future. I have never said they would destroy the cable industry.....it could destroy current broadcast model. You apparently don't understand this sector at all and continue to show your ignorance. If Aereo wins and they convert NBC the content provider to cable......they then get subscriber fees instead of retrans. It's a wash. They win either way.......unlike broadcasters.
You really need to keep up. Time Warner was the first to be rumored to buy Aereo and then Comcast and a few others said they would either buy Aereo or start their own similar type services if Aereo wins....DaninFW
I don't like Gabelli either. If you look at Barron's each week.......there has only been one week in the last 7-8 weeks where Gabelli wasn't buying and selling the same stock at the same time. There is a section each week an SEC filings. Look at PBY and the action there. PBY drops to low 11's and Gabelli announces another buy. It goes above $12 and then falls to low 11's and Gabelli announces another buy. Great way to make money on PBY but this has gone on for years at PBY. Still dead money there too. If not mistaken Gabelli was one of the ones trying to force another offer for BLC and it didn't work either. They bought a bunch above price paid. Be careful. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
That is a concern. Gabelli (GAMCO) is notorious for saying one thing and doing another. They also filed today that they sold 88,050 GTN shares last quarter. They also said today they sold 37,744 shares of LIN.........as I have said.......DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Who upgraded LIN today? Could not find it. I saw where The Street downgraded yesterday from buy to hold. The Supreme Court case is similar to a serial killer being charged for killing 27 people. Usually the first trial is for a small part of that because of double jeopardy. If he wins he can still be charged for the other murders. Street did not like SBGI's report or conference call today. SBGI is basically saying that even if we lose we can still sue for copyright which leaves the uncertainty still hanging over their heads. This tells me they have concerns reading between the lines. My concern is that other investors have concerns. As for Wells Fargo they have one of the poorest reputations on the street IMVHO. Marci Ryvicker is a joke. I have said this for years. She is always a day late and a dollar short. We almost saw the 9's today on GTN. If it breaks and holds below $9.80 there is no real support till $8.90's........JMVHO. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Management runs this as their own personal ATM machine. The three new hires and their salaries, benefits, options, etc. won't show up till Q1 2014. I do expect to see a major hit for compensation with the $4 million+/- hit they must take for option expense sometime in next year. If it is Q4 watch out. The retired guy that dumps 50,000-80,000 shares every 2 weeks or so will continue for at least the next 10 months. Last Friday he dumped about 60,000 shares and filed after market closed. The stock was up good for the day. Imagine if it didn't have the big dump? Management talks in circles. They are constantly talking 40% digital growth on a very small base. SBGI reported digital growth of almost 150% today on millions.......retrains has also been very flat last year or so and should get a bump in about 6-12 months. These guys also do not present their case well in front of investors. DaninFW
I saw it but I am not a big proponent and fan of Value Line. When I first started investing almost 50 years ago it was one of the bibles I used and it was more often wrong than right. DaninFW
Boy, entire sector still crashing especially with bad report from SBGI today. I said a few days ago that EVC was in a narrow trading channel and yesterday It looked like it broke support. Too early to tell but it looks like the big seller yesterday was reason. Today so far no selling pressure. Starting to look interesting here. Of the 15 largest holders of EVC stock, only six have filed Schedule 13's. The other 9 have to file by Monday. But, so far all six that filed added to their positions in 4th quarter. EVC did hit $5.53 and I said $5.50 was target low. I think we now have a lot of support at low $5.50's. Sector is still out of favor but IMVHO it looks like many are betting that EVC is a takeover target. Worth accumulating in the $5.50-$5.70 range. Only stock in sector worth gambling on right now. DaninFW
When you get out of kinder garden and get in the first grade you will learn about gravity and reverse gravity. DaninFW
SBGI missed by a nickel on EPS but beat on revenues. Very disappointing and I think the street will agree. This won't help the sector today either. Synergies from M&A not apparent. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
EVC showed support and was up at the open unlike almost the entire sector. Big seller started dumping. The support is now gone. I said $5.50 before $7.00 and we are almost there today. If we break below $5.50 and stay below $5.50.....we may see $5 next. DaninFW