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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

daninfw04 221 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 4, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    Here's an article from LA Times yesterday about Univison cutting dozens of positions and struggling with advertising. EVC is adding high pay execs with no additional revenue. EVC is the personal; ATM for the CEO:
    "
    By Meg James
    April 3, 2014, 4:43 p.m.



    Univision Communications is restructuring its radio division, eliminating dozens of workers at stations around the country as the company centralizes its programming functions.

    Univision confirmed Thursday that there had been layoffs, but it declined to say how many people had lost their jobs as part of this week's realignment.

    The nation's largest Spanish-language media company, which owns 68 radio stations, this week began trimming programming staff and some on-air hosts, including in Chicago, in an effort to cut costs.

    ON LOCATION: Where the cameras roll

    Rather than rely on staff at the various stations, the company instead is creating three programming centers -- in Los Angeles, San Antonio and Miami -- to produce entertainment for the station chain.

    “The content teams ... will provide customized and localized content across all of our markets, digital, and beyond,” Jose Valle, president of Univision Radio, said this week in an open letter distributed by Univision.

    Stations will continue to employ local staff members to work with advertisers.

    “Local promotions and activation teams, as well as local DJs, will continue serving clients and local audiences in each and every market,” Valle wrote.

    The privately held Univision has been reviewing its operations in advance of a planned public offering of its stock, which could come this year or early next year.

    Some of the company's owners have been looking for an exit, according to knowledgeable people who declined to be identified discussing internal matters.

    PHOTOS: Behind the scenes of movies and TV

    Los Angeles billionaire Haim Saban and four private equity firms acquired Univision in 2007 in a leveraged buyout that left the company laden with $10 billion in debt.

    Soon after their purchase, the Great Recession hit and the advertising market collapsed.

    In addition, during the last few years, there have been dramatic shifts in consumer behavior as more people turn to the Internet and their phones to watch videos and listen to music.

    Univision plans to steer some of the cost savings into its recently launched digital music service called Uforia.

    Univision has been grappling with changes just like its counterparts in English-language media. However, despite a partial economic recovery, advertisers have not significantly expanded their budgets to buy more commercial time on Spanish-language radio -- despite the immense popularity of the medium among Latinos.

    Last year, Univision Radio generated nearly $330 million in revenue, a 2% decline from the previous year. However, the division produced $110 million in operating income in 2013, an increase of 8% over 2012.

    FACES TO WATCH 2014: Digital media

    Overall, Univision generated $2.6 billion in revenue last year, an increase of 8%. More than three-quarters of the company's revenue comes from its television operations.

    Last fall, Univision began testing its new centralized model after the high-profile departure of its formerly top-rated morning show host Eddie “Piolin” Sotelo from the company’s Los Angeles station, KSCA-FM (101.9).

    http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-univision-radio-centralized-layoffs-20140403,0,6979293.story#ixzz2xxVjV22o

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 3, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    This company put a price target of $7.15 on EVC this morning when it was $6.60........not a lot of upside . Sector weak again today. I don't know how many of you read the press release on latest acquisition but it had actually been shut down and put on a back shelf for a long time. It was already a failed business model. IMVHO you will see EVC at $5.50-$6.00 very soon. DaninFW
    "Macquarie Starts Entravision Communications (EVC) at Neutral

    Street Insider - 9:05 AM ET

    Macquarie initiated coverage on Entravision Communications with a Neutral rating and a price target of $7.15"

  • Reply to

    Dan, EVC Vs. GTN

    by truth.monger Mar 31, 2014 1:12 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 1, 2014 8:42 AM Flag

    I didn't listen or watch hearing. I am out of sector completely at present. The one thing that passed that I honestly missed somehow.......was the FCC voted 5-0 to stop the broadcasters from negotiating retrans with two or more top 4 stations in one market. I won't type complete details but this will definitely slow down retrans growth. Great article in Variety published yesterday. I love trading the sector. Today may be different but in hindsight it looks like the FCC decision was already priced into sector. If you read the Variety article it seems like a no brainer that the FCC won't allow Univision to negotiate for EVC. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Dan, EVC Vs. GTN

    by truth.monger Mar 31, 2014 1:12 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 31, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    IMVHO GTN is worth fair value of about $12-13 in TODAY's MARKET. EVC is worth $5.50-$6.50....however, that could change depending on outcome of meeting of FCC today. There's an article out under SBGI where one analyst thinks small stations will get hurt more than big stations if FCC moves as expected today. They will lose a lot of bargaining clout with retrans. The Univision exception requested for EVC to the FCC will be a big event as well when decided. JMVHO dan inFW

  • Reply to

    Big News Yesterday

    by daninfw04 Mar 27, 2014 8:51 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 27, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    I think you nailed it. Go back several years and look at what FCC did to Univision,,,,making them give up control of EVC. Univision still has right to say no in a takeover of EVC. I don't think we will ever see Univision take over EVC. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 27, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    My radar barely picked this news up that came out an hour and 21 minutes before market close yesterday. Gives you an idea of what the new proposed FCC changes would do......even to EVC:
    "By Doug Halonen

    TVNewsCheck, March 26, 2014 2:39 PM EDT

    Univision Communications is asking the FCC to allow the company to continue negotiating retransmission consent deals for all Entravision Communications TV stations — even though most broadcasters could soon be barred from negotiating retrans agreements for multiple stations in the same market.

    Univision is seeking special relief from the FCC because the agency is expected to adopt a new regulation on March 31 that would generally bar broadcasters from joint TV station retransmission consent negotiations.
    Under the proposal, the FCC would prohibit two or more separately owned Top 4 broadcast stations in the same market from jointly negotiating retrans deals.

    The FCC order, assuming it’s approved, also will include a “rebuttable presumption that the costs of joint negotiation by non-Top-4 station combinations in the same market outweigh the benefits, and that joint negotiation among these combinations constitutes a failure to negotiate in good faith,” the FCC said in a recent background paper.

    The proposed regulations could throw a monkey wrench into Univision and Entravision’s existing negotiations, because Univision currently negotiates retrans deals for Entravision and each of the companies currently owns non-top 4 ranked stations in six of the same markets, Univision said in a lobbying disclosure letter filed at the FCC." continued

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 26, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    I may be wrong but I believe just about every deal talks about or states that the deal is X times CF for a 2-year period. SBGI and LIN always said for example "8.3 times 2013-2014 CF with synergies". So, any acquirer now would be looking at combined CF for 2014-2015. Next year they would be talking 2015-2016 which would include a presidential election and probably kick the price up even more. JMVHO. Not an easy answer. Retrans again is ramping up the valuations. The broadcasters overpaid prior to 2008 and then could not refi debt. That's what crashed the sector big time. Cheap money will be gone in a few years. All the deals currently are based on synergies, retrans ramping up even more as well as digital/mobile kicking in more and more. The FCC vote on 3-31-14 is the only thing that will stall this sector. Given time they will work around it. For instance, you may have 2-3 broadcasters team up to buy one group of stations and then divide them between themselves based on locations and duopolies. M&A will be slowed down but not stopped. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 26, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    This sector for years always had one big year one bad year pretty much. When I first started investing over 40 years ago, the saying was "The Market always looks 6 months ahead"...........that almost tells the whole story in itself. However, for this sector the change after the last political election, we actually saw sector increasing where it almost always declined. I and others attributed it to the dramatic and anticipated further increases in retrans. A miracle drug had finally been discovered for non-political years. Then, we saw the synergies from consolidation.......which gave us the next boost.
    Now, two separate events are challenging the sector......Aereo and their retrans revenue stream.....and the FCC in regard to M&A. EVC has already said they won't be a consolidator........supposedly not enough Hispanic stations available. If the FCC takes a super strong stance on M&A on 3-31-14, that alone will drive sector down IMVHO. If one of the Democrats sides with the two Republicans......it's a new ball game.
    Also, in regard to your first statement, an overlay might honestly be trend indicative......except for the major catalysts that weren't in existence then. 2010 and 2011 were simple basic non-event years compared to now. If new FCC Chairman gets shot down this sector could roar again. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Only down 1%, maybe decline over..?

    by truth.monger Mar 25, 2014 6:47 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 26, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    I agree. I think they are looking to make a big digital acquisition. That's why I don't understand hiring all these execs. If they buy the right company they need to keep that talent and not run them off IMVHO. Just doesn't make sense. The whole sector is still in shambles. I honestly am surprised that EVC hasn't gone lower. If you look at the digital acquisitions of other comanies in sector they are keeping and putting that talent in charge. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Only down 1%, maybe decline over..?

    by truth.monger Mar 25, 2014 6:47 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 26, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Everyone is probably tired of me saying this, but they just hired another VP. This is about 4 they have hired now for their digital/mobile area. Big pay and options. The stock price almost always goes up when a company hires a high powered executive that can bring something to a company. This hasn't been the case with any of the new hires. Several other questions should be asked. They have added 4 new executives. What have or will they add to the business? What will they cost the business? If they have been bragging on every press release and presentation about their 40% gains in this area.......who has been responsible? If that person has been doing such a great job.......why weren't they promoted? I could go on and on but I think you get the point. I suspect it's because the old guard doesn't understand the new business. If that's the case they should be replacing existing executives who don't understand the future of this sector. Instead, they are keeping the old timers and hiring new ones while building unnecessary layers of expense. Call it what you will. But, no question this is about a million dollars+ in expenses. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Maybe 2015 concern is starting to mount?

    by truth.monger Mar 24, 2014 6:25 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 24, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    Again, when I first started playing this sector 5+ years ago everything was a bargain selling at PE's of 2-4. It was a no-brainer. Then the momentum players came in. Then nothing but retrans, retrans, retrans........and political 2014. Perhaps got those backwards with momentum last. And then as I said for months we just needed a catalyst to bring the sector down. Well, instead of one we got 2 or 3. However, then we got the MEG/LIN merger news and actually near the close today Morgan Stanley came out with a list of 44 companies that will probably get bought out in 2014.......and SBGI was on it. May be a positive for SBGI tomorrow. The point is money is to be made on volatility. Normally, there would be upside this time of year with political starting to kick in next few months. But, we now have the FCC soon to be resolved issue that may actually be a big positive or negative, the Aereo arguments before Supreme Court starting next month, etc. that will take away much of the normal thunder. The Apple deal today is very little different than the same deal Netflix cut a short time back.......but today the market just perceived it as bad for sector. just a few thoughts. It's going to be hard for this sector to stay up till after FCC and Aereo issue resolved. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Maybe 2015 concern is starting to mount?

    by truth.monger Mar 24, 2014 6:25 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 24, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    I'll try to be civil if you will. This sector is getting hit with constant negatives. Hopefully, the FCC meeting on 3-31-14 won't get the support that the new FCC chairman wants and we will get a positive for a change. The news today that set the tone in sector was Apple contacting Comcast about being a preferred vendor. This sector has never been about PE's just always Cash Flow multiples. I remember when almost all of them were selling at PE's of 2-4 but the cash flow multiples were 6-10. All of this sector is suffering from margin erosion. Retrans is going up but this is the year that reverse comp starts hitting big also. I will close with 3-31-14 being a critical date.

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo downgrade of GTN (and LIN)

    by touchpauseengage Mar 21, 2014 11:11 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 21, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    It's a shame your EVC is doing virtually nothing. Way overvalued. I guess "soon" means one day by your standards? You said EVC would be $12 SOON on 12-04-14. Are there different standards for you and regular people? I think my call on GTN was right on. Most would agree. It appears my PT is looking correct. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo downgrade of GTN (and LIN)

    by touchpauseengage Mar 21, 2014 11:11 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 21, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    As I said before, Ryvicker at WF upgraded sector before it went down and then downgraded at the bottom. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    GTN-Time to Buy Soon

    by daninfw04 Mar 19, 2014 5:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 20, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    Lying.monger You do realize that everyone knows you're lying again? The people on this message board are much smarter than you. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 19, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    I have been bearish on this sector for about 2 months. I now believe that GTN presents a good buying opportunity at $9.00-$9.25. Those more risk averse may want to buy at current levels. I will wait for low 9's. At current levels if bought at $9 I see downside of $8 and upside of $12. That's a risk/reward ratio of 3 to 1. It appears that GTN has gotten hit harder than SBGI or LIN and has the least to actually lose in the current FCC issue. There also appears a growing support for the FCC to back off or not be as aggressive. The vote is 3-31-14. The Aereo issue still looms but the FCC issue is more short term and long term issue. GTN has top notch management. Again, they have little to lose even if the FCC moves aggressively. The one Democratic FCC member is starting to push hard against many of her concerns and the two Republicans are both against the measures. This could be a win for the sector if she and the 2 Republicans vote no. Sector will explode if the new FCC chairman is voted down. The vote in favor is already factored in. Could be a big surprise. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Grow up Dan. You got it very very wrong.

    by truth.monger Mar 19, 2014 4:18 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 19, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    I would add that I also made this post just days after the one you keep posting incorrectly. I was humble by the way:
    :

    Apology
    .

    I sincerely apologize to anyone taking me wrong that has lost any money on GTN or EVC. I have called this sector right about 95%+ of the time for about 6 years now. I feel obligated to let people know that I am no longer high on any stock in this sector. This sector has been a pure momentum play for months now and way overpriced. I made a ton investing for years and trading for past 6 months or so. I think I have communicated that many times. Each of you still invested in this stock have to make some tough decisions. I have no skin in the game at present and will make a ton of money again here. But, here is the question you should be asking yourself 2 questions. How much do I want to risk when it could drop 50%+/- even from these levels? If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Aereo and I think the odds are 40-60% that they will.......these stocks will plummet. A lot of that drop will probably happen way before July and maybe only 10-20% by the time decision is made. The second question is how much do you want to stay invested in a sector that has very little if any upside till July? The only thing worse than making a bad decision is living with that bad decision. GLTA DaninFW"
    I also believe I called it pretty much 100%.

  • Reply to

    Grow up Dan. You got it very very wrong.

    by truth.monger Mar 19, 2014 4:18 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 19, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    I would add that I don't think they will get hurt LT. That's generally 12-18 months. GTN is far superior to the management at EVC that robs shareholders. How are you related to the CEO's family.....are you son, daughter, niece, nephew???? Only a family member would tell the world EVC was going to $12 soon while you were selling and shorting. Care to keep playing this game where you lie and I keep proving you wrong? Only a chile would keep poting the same sentence when I have posted the entire posting that shows you to be an idiot. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Grow up Dan. You got it very very wrong.

    by truth.monger Mar 19, 2014 4:18 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 19, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    BTW, when are you going to post the entire posting and not one sentence out of context. You know nothing. The person I was responding to also bought GTN when I recommended it below $4 a share. They are doing quite well now in their golden years. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 19, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Here is just one post of many on 1-18-14 where I called it 100% on GTN:
    "I posted a few thoughts on the EVC message board as I have been out of the country for over a week down in South and Central America. The Aereo news broke last Friday as I was leaving. I could not believe that it didn't show up as news until Wednesday on stocks in the sector. I was 99% cash when the news broke. Only USCR warrants holding at this time. I would have dumped everything in this sector Monday had I been invested. I said this sector was overbought and due for sector rotation and just needed a catalyst. This was indeed the catalyst. I posted my opinion on Aereo a few months ago and met with wide criticism. Sector stocks have already dropped 15-20% in a week or so. IMVHO we may see a dead cat bounce but I think we are due another 10-15% drop but may be slower in coming and take 2-4 weeks. I see GTN down to $10.00-$10.50 in next few weeks. At that point I will have to determine whether to buy or wait for further decline. I said months ago that the Aereo threat could be real. In the smaller courts, Aereo wins one and the broadcasters win one. I said before that the broadcasters needed to be careful of what they asked for......because they might just get it.......and I was talking about the request for Supreme Court to rule on the matter. I am not going to respond to the several individual opinions because many of you are much smarter than me. However, I do have much experience in this area. Continued......DaninFW"

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