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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

daninfw04 367 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2014 4:39 PM Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 8:42 AM Flag

    Well, I took my little sabbatical for 19 days. Posted a couple of times from London but it is almost impossible to keep up in the rest of Europe and Russia. Every time I tried to sign on to Yahoo and Facebook as well as many others as I was hitting a different country every few days......it would lock my account. Visited England, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Estonia, Belgium and Russia. Got very frustrating. Just a few random thoughts now.
    1) I had placed Outpissed on ignore months ago and took off when researching all the scam artists, pump and dumpers and aliases of lying.monger. I placed on ignore again a few weeks ago. He really just posts to taunt others and posts nothing but lies to support his other aliases.
    2) I left contra_guy off ignore as I now find it interesting that he is congratulating those he called mindless and never once told anyone to buy EVC at the recent lows.
    3) I left lying.monger off ignore as well as I find his rantings interesting as well and a good contrarian indicator. We need someone to balance the arguments to keep them from being one sided. He sometimes but rarely does post new thoughts.
    4) Insider buying needs to see some more players. The $10 million repurchase is a joke IMVHO. IT's barely over 2% of current outstanding shares. It shows current management doesn't have a clue. However, the plan gives EVC the right to do private transactions which begs a few questions.
    5) There is a great news article where Entravision filed a protest with the FCC against the Comcast/TWC merger that is well worth the read. It again could be a negative for EVC if Telemundo which is controlled by Comcast gets too much power. Lying.monger is always talking about contract renewals with Univision. This proves that Univision needs EVC more than anything. Telemundo is growing it's audience at the expense of Univision in markets where EVC doesn't operate. EVC is growing because they have #1 and #2 news in all markets. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Random Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 8:42 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    continued
    6) Analysts based on last call are giving EVC zero expectations for any revenue contributed by Pulpo Media this quarter but a $3 million hit on operating expenses. If EVC doesn't get close to $3 million revenue gain from Pulpo this quarter then they did indeed overpay for Pulpo. But, a $3 million plus to revenues could make this stock rock next quarter.
    7) Analysts expect EVC to show little revenue gain from $6+/- million in political revenue this quarter since they lost 2/3 of their World Cup Revenue gains. If they can actually show a substantial gain without tradeoffs we could rock.
    8) I could go on and on but my points are simple........Wall Street has lowered expectations so low a sixth grader could beat them. Sector is in shambles because with LIN and GTN renewing their agreements after LIN losing a top station has the smart money wondering what they gave up. A real concern. However, EVC is currently protected for years to come under their old agreements. They should not be thrown in the same
    basket. The recent contract renewals also shows that the content providers, ABC, CBS, NBC, CW, FOX, etc. are not anywhere close to being ready to go cable only and yank their content from local broadcasters. The formula works when they tie in with local broadcasters when they have the #1 and #2 news. I expect some sector upgrades soon. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Here is an article from CX news where CX is expecting pricing in the U.S. to be be up almost 30% in 2015:
    "After meeting with Cemex USA CEO, Credit Suisse concludes its forecast for U.S. operations may be a little conservative.

    Analysts Vanessa Quiroga, Maria Madrazo and Nicole Hirakawa write that Mexican cement producer Cemex (CX) must invest to revamp imports and comply with new environmental regulations, but also should see price volume and price increases that should compensate:

    ” … for the U.S. operation, CX sees rising demand for its products in the markets where it is present, which provides support to its value-before-volume strategy. We now see upside risk in our forecasts for CX U.S. operation, mainly from better pricing. Our current assumption is 1% sequential price increase in the second half of 2014 and 3% in 2015, compared to Cemex’s planned price increases of 4-8% for the second half of 2014 and 23-27% for 2015. … At the pace at which Cemex sees its volumes growing in the next 18-24 months, it will likely have to accelerate imports to meet its customers’ needs. Looking at historical cement-industry data, there are two recent periods (’93-’99 and ’03-’06) where current levels of domestic production at ~80mn tons have clearly been the starting point of an increase in imports, followed by a ~US$20/ton jump in cement prices. The Great Recession caused imports to plummet by 81%. To be able to increase imports from these levels we believe cement players will need to invest in revamping import infrastructure, purchasing equipment and enhancing distribution

    We measured the potential upside in our ’15 Ebitda numbers under different pricing scenarios. Assuming that by end-2015 cement prices are 20% higher vs. June ’14 levels, and using a conservative Ebitda mg of 19% for FY15, we estimate 28% higher Ebitda for Cemex USA compared to our current forecast. Our current model sees CX trading at 9.0x EV/Ebitda ’15.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CX Forecast

    by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 9:05 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    If pricing is up 25%+/- in 2015 which is just 4-5 months away, we could easily see 30-35% revenue gains per quarter in 2015. Can you imagine what USCR stock would do? Much less than the warrants. I will be buying more warrants on any weakness. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CX Forecast

    by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 9:05 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    I have to add that CX is an international company with interests worldwide. They will only be getting this pricing in the U.S. Just imagine if 100% of their revenues like USCR were in the U.S. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    Hodges Capital just filed a schedule 13 a few days ago where they went over 5% of USCR. When they filed a couple of weeks ago they had 658,660 shares but in last few weeks added almost 100,000 shares to 757,350 or 5.41% of total shares. Interesting. Also, I posted a CX article and based on same metrics of 9X EV/EBITDA, USCR should be $3.50-$4.00 more per share right now. I think in a buyout it would bring 10X which is another $4-5 per share. Gets us pretty close to my $36 projection next 6-12 months. However, if we see price increases of 20%+ in 2015 it's a totally new game. We could easily see $40-50 in that scenario. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Random Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 8:42 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 2, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    You really need to learn how to read. I never said I put you on ignore. I may soon do so if you have nothing to contribute. Nobody recognizes you were right except your aliases. You were selling at $7 while telling everyone else to buy and that it was going to $16......what a scam artist. I have accumulated EVC from an adjusted $6.065 after dividend to as low as $4.47. Average cost is around $5.50 now give or take a few pennies. The stock is a steal at these prices. I have made hundreds of thousands on EVC alone. Will do so again soon. I have been underwater several times before and always sold at a nice gain. Us old guys find you punk kids a real joke. Can you let us know some of your other aliases you use on other boards so we can do the opposite and make money like you do scamming people? DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Random Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 8:42 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 3, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Matt----just 30 days ago, the analysts expected EVC to earn 13 cents this quarter. It has been lowered to 10 cents. Revenues were also bumped down. The 5 analysts that follow EVC range in their estimates from 7 to 14 cents. Quite a range. They were lowered because they have lost confidence in management. EPS should be close to 14 cents if they were a competent management team. I have posted a bunch on this weeks ago. The conference call scared the hell out of the analysts. Yes, we need a catalyst. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Sep 3, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    Your last post deserved a better response. When you said you were right and I was wrong I got to thinking. Months ago I repeatedly advised readers of this message board that EVC was going to $14-16. I believe you even once said it could hit $20. Every single time I said it was worth only $7-8. I think once I remarked when asked by Joe that it might hit $10 in 2-3 years. All of these posts are still available for all to read. You sold your stock at $7 because you realized that I was right. I posted detailed analysis about 6+ months ago that fair value for EVC at the time was $5.50-$6.00. You do realize that stocks go up and down? Yes, I bought too high at just barely over $6 and got a steal at $4.47. You should buy some too. Quit distorting the truth. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Random Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Sep 1, 2014 8:42 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 3, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    I share your sentiments. I have always said EVC has the worst management in the sector and continue to add new high paid positions. The smart money is concerned if the $6+/- million in political in September will also disappear due to incompetency. The only saving grace IMVHO is that these same incompetent managers own millions of shares of EVC and have lost millions in last 30 days or so because they didn't execute last quarter. Money is the #1 motivator. I expected upside last quarter and management didn't deliver. EVC does have a history of surprising to the upside. I don't see myself wrong this quarter. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lying.Monger

    by daninfw04 Sep 3, 2014 9:08 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 4, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    You sold because I convinced you it was only worth $7-8.......still is. Your other response to my other posting was also nothing but distortions. Several broadcasters spewed the same garbage to the Supreme Court. And now 2 of them have signed long term contracts. It's called political posturing which I explained to you before. I was right again. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Sep 6, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    Here's a great article paste from Broadcast and Cable which shows that eyeballs watching tv are actually up and not down like lying.monger keeps telling us. Once again proof that he is wrong:
    "Wieser accepts that the national TV upfront market for 2014-15 was weak but chalks that up mostly to the normal ebb and flow between the upfront market and scatter. He notes that total national TV advertising was $42 billion last year and total spending online video was about $3 billion. Some of that online video spending came from marketers that are not national TV advertising and some spending from large brands probably came from digital dollars previously spent on banner ads or rich media, he says. That leaves about $1 billion that advertisers spent on online video that in the past would have been spent on traditional TV.

    In the worst case scenario imagined by investors, Weiser says online spending would jump by $2 billion this year, or 10% of TV.

    "Such spending levels seem unlikely—or potentially wasteful—if we consider that total online video content consumption equates to maybe 5% of total TV consumption and half of the online video consumption figure is accounted for by user-generated content that most advertisers might stay away from," he says.

    Wieser also notes that TV ratings are declining but they don't reflect total TV viewing. He says that Nielsen's cross platform data shows that viewing hours per person is up.

    "Regardless of the ups and downs of viewing, what's more important is that television's scale continues to dwarf all other media. Advertisers make decisions based on relative-best alternatives available to achieve goals, and television would have a lot of decline to do (or other media would have much more gaining to do) before television's status changes," he says.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Article

    by daninfw04 Sep 6, 2014 9:42 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 6, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    You wonder why I changed your name? EVC is getting paid almost $30 million a year in retrans....not from people with rabbit ears. You totally distorted the truth again. Univision needs EVC and even petitioned the FCC to grant them an exception to negotiate for EVC. The actual contract with Univision for representation expires in December of this year. If they were ditching EVC they would not have done a petition. Read between the lines. You are wrong again amigo. I love how you twist everything positive to a negative. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Article

    by daninfw04 Sep 6, 2014 9:42 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 7, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Not worth my time to respond as I have posted responses before showing how wrong you are. Only exception is management are idiots. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reality check

    by infotraxx Sep 7, 2014 7:39 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 7, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Glad to have some real discussion. Two clouds now are hanging over the sector. The Aereo issue is still alive and well and odds it will fail again but they are still trying to now be called a cable company and if they win will only have to pay copyright which is a small amount compared to re-trans. Next hearing is 10-15-14 I believe. It's still not gone away. The danger is if they win, the cable companies, dish and phone companies could follow. The political climate has changed dramatically with Rockefeller and Thune now proposing that broadcasters be allowed to be purchased as ala-carte which is stupid since we would still have to buy all the other cable channels in a package. The proposed legislation also would not allow broadcasters to blackout games during negotiation. Lots more to it but currently has little chance of passing but it's now out of committee. Market doesn't like uncertainty. As I have said before, the results being reported by SBGI, MEG, NXST and GTN aren't showing all the synergies and earnings gains everyone expected from the M&A's recently. Investors are disappointed IMVHO. I think when these two clouds are removed we will move north again. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reality check

    by infotraxx Sep 7, 2014 7:39 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 7, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    I would add that the spectrum issue is currently a negative as well. The broadcasters just sued the FCC last week over the spectrum issue claiming the current proposals will cost the industry $500 million in repacking and it will force smaller broadcasters to sell spectrum just to raise capital for repacking. The auction may not happen in 2015. It's all political posturing which long term will give broadcasters even more for their spectrum. We also still have all the lawsuits against the FCC over recent changes that could be overturned as well. Any wins in appeals court could set sector on fire as well. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just offering my opinion

    by value_invstr Sep 8, 2014 1:05 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 8, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    I too think Aereo is dead but still not 100%. Copyright said they would render final decision after all court decisions and not before........still a cloud. Barry Diller also did not write off 100% of his investment and still has tens of millions on the books. He wrote his investment down by about 75%. The law has little or no chance of passing for sure, but........the issue is that the political climate is shifting against broadcasters. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just offering my opinion

    by value_invstr Sep 8, 2014 1:05 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 8, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    The cable companies are winning right now. The FCC's new regs reduce their leverage in negotiating re-trans. The new legislation which isn't going to pass IMVHO still shows the increasing influence of cable. What we need to settle down concerns about re-trans is some investor presentations with updated slides about projected re-trans for LIN, SBGI, GTN, etc. If they show similar patterns to past presentations it will instill confidence in the LT nature of the sector. I agree with you. The content providers aren't going to destroy or cripple their local broadcast partners. That would be lunacy. It needs to be a partnership. What I think will happen is that the broadcasters are getting tired of the FCC and cable companies jacking with them. The gauntlet has been cast. Re-trans in future negotiations will go up even higher than original projections to allow the local broadcasters to maintain or increase current revenue projections. It has to do so in order to pay for all the loans for recent M&A. You said it. 40% of the viewers and only 7% of the revenues. It's time to get real here. Sector will soon explode again. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    danninFW04: you called it

    by shorthighcoverlower Sep 8, 2014 5:26 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 8, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    This is at least 5 quarters in a row where they didn't meet expect. Heads need to roll. O'Dell is a joke. I would buy only south of $10 for a trade only. Sooner or later the big investors like a few years ago will bail and this puppy will hit $8-9.......that would be a buy for sure. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    will Mario Gabelli Buy more?

    by shorthighcoverlower Sep 8, 2014 5:41 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Sep 8, 2014 8:23 PM Flag

    That is the only thing supporting PBY right now. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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