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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

daninfw04 245 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Nov 10, 2015 8:29 AM Flag

    Tricadia just filed schedule 13 yesterday and announced new position they acquired in Q3 of 2,643,101 HOV shares. So far, all top holders have added shares in Q3. Just a few days left to see all filings. New holder just invested over $5 million in HOV........with DHI and BZH news today it appears sector has a very bright 2016......the bashers claim victory for a few days but this is a marathon not a race. I would add that bond holders care nothing about shareholders. Moody's is right in that regard and bond holders will have less assets to divide in a bankruptcy while shareholders now have another billion dollars for land deals to protect our investment. I and others have been proven right not wrong. Nobody seems to want to read the presentation where HOV management freely admits they are kicking the can down the road. It's the plan. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DR Horton up 9%

    by homeseek Nov 10, 2015 2:29 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 10, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    There you go again. BZH beat expect this morning and down also. Will BZH file bankruptcy first? Perhaps PHM will be next since they can't afford to pay for higher labor. You are a genius. Pat yourself on the back for being so smart. Again, why do you post here? You have never claimed a position short or long and post one thing one day and something completely different the next. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DR Horton up 9%

    by homeseek Nov 10, 2015 2:29 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 10, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    First off, I don't believe you. Why waste your time here. I have no problem with shorts or longs. A lot can be made by trading the wide channels on HOV. I used to do it. I suspect you are really bashing and buying and then pumping and dumping thinking you have some control over stock momentum. Nothing else makes sense the way you post. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Starboard Warning

    by johnodod Nov 10, 2015 2:07 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 10, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    I believe something is going on behind the scenes. Things have been too quiet. They aren't just sitting around twiddling thumbs. If anything, posturing is taking place. The MDP deal is dead. No question. If MEG was to turn around and say the MDP deal was back on the table, MEG stock would drop $2+/- almost immediately and make a NXST deal even more possible. Or they could do the deal and MEG stock would drop enough in 6-12 months that NXST could come back and probably buy the company for $12+/- a share instead of current offer worth about $15.50 now. I think the MDP management wants MEG. I suspect they are all waiting for NXST to say to hell with the BOD's of MEG and just make a direct offer to shareholders for around $17. Then, I think we will see a bidding war for MEG with MDP countering as the acquiring entity. The only thing that might prohibit MDP from doing so was if NXST offered say $19-20 to scare MDP off. Keep in mind, about half the purchase price could be in stock of either company and the cash portion would be about 50%+/- returned after the spectrum auction. Something has to be announced very soon or we will be in the window where the parties cannot negotiate because of the spectrum auction. That is within 2-4 weeks. I really expect the ball to get rolling by end of this week and worst case announcement Monday morning. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Starboard Warning

    by johnodod Nov 10, 2015 2:07 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 10, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    Salsam, do you have any skin in the game with MEG? I know you have EVC and a large dollar takeout proposal could set sector on fire again. If MEG pops above $16 next few days we might see an $18+ offer. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Nov 11, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    I started a new thread as I can't stand how Yahoo does these boards now. You can't find anything. MEG has a 52 week high of $18 and NXST already offered $17 but took advantage of sector crash to low ball. It did get the ball moving. However, EVC, SBGI and others have hit 52 week highs. GTN is close to a 52 week high also. This should push up the evaluation formulas. Most times you need to offer 5-10% above the 52 week high to bag the company. The $17 offer was just to get the BOD's negotiating. That was the least they would pay. NXST has already hit $58.17 today which makes current deal on table worth $15.72. I think at least $17 is a given but again that was the original first offer. Nobody takes the first offer. BOD's already rejected it. I suspect now we will see $18 minimum and to cinch the deal $18.90-$19.80.....perhaps just flat $20. Going to be fun. I think we can rule out MDP making a counter bid but never say never. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Next Move

    by daninfw04 Nov 11, 2015 12:37 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 11, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Just hoping EVC gets back in the 7's and I'll do it again.
    As for buying more MEG I too am thinking about it. I have it as a strong buy because I see limited downside unless entire market and sector tanks. My 40,000 MEG are bought at just under $14.49 each. MEG is range bound right now. If all deals are canceled in worst case, MEG would move up without redoing the MDP deal. If MEG dips into low 15's today or tomorrow I might buy more as I think $15 is the floor and $20 is possible. I think $17-18 for sure. I expect final word early or late next week. That's 2-3% possible loss versus almost certain 10%+ and possible 30%+. Those are about 10 to 1 odds. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Next Move

    by daninfw04 Nov 11, 2015 12:37 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 11, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    Took my own advice and just bought another 30,000 MEG at $15.42-$15.43 at the close. Now have 70,000 MEG. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    daninfw

    by thedethlefs Nov 12, 2015 2:37 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 12, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    I am just holding. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Nov 12, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    The selloff in HOV has been brutal to say the least. My opinion has not changed. HOV could be $1.50 or $2.50 next week. However, we need to get an announcement of another land deal soon IMVHO to stabilize the stock. Bond investors have always been known to be smarter than equity investors. Here is something to think about. The shorts are trying to convince everyone that HOV is going bankrupt. HOV bondholders are not concerned. Here are the current bonds that have to be paid off in next few years. After these issues nothing for about 4-5 years:
    The 1-15-16's are selling for $997.50 last trade even after Moody downgrade and have $172,778,000 out.
    The 5-15-16's are selling for $985.00 and have $86,500,000 outstanding.
    The 1-15-17's are still going for $960.90 and $121,059,000 outstanding. The 12-01-17's which are over 2 years out are going for $848.80 mainly because they pay just 6% and have $100,000,000 outstanding.
    I am as much of a bond trader as a stock trader. I have owned as many as 85 different bond issues at one time. I know bonds. These guys holding almost a half BILLION in unsecured bonds are holding pat. Most companies that are fixing to file bankruptcy are selling for less than 50 cents on the dollar. Also, why would HOV waste cash and payoff the 10-15-15 bonds if they didn't plan to stay out of bankruptcy? This may be a bumpy ride but I am holding. It's more fun when it's going up than down. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Logic and Bonds

    by daninfw04 Nov 12, 2015 5:28 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 12, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    Read earlier posts. Next bonds 1-15-16 and current land deal takes 60 days. Dan in fw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MEG Agrees to Negotiate with NXST

    by mediatrader Nov 16, 2015 12:56 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 16, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    MEG will go for $18+ now that MDP has declared they have the right to offer superior amount. Watch and learn. Investors don't know how to read. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Nov 16, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    The bidding war has begun. MDP has made it clear they have the right to make a superior offer. It will be days and perhaps weeks before we know how much. NXST will make the first offer. If not a strong offer, MDP will offer more. NXST could offer a lot to scare MDP off. But, both stocks are going up and will be used as currency. If NXST makes an offer they will give MDP 24-48 hours to counter. We may never know how many bids till BOD's accept final offer. I expect $18-20 depending on how bad MDP wants MEG. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bidding War

    by daninfw04 Nov 16, 2015 2:01 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 16, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    What part of MDP's statement do investors not understand? They basically told NXST that they want MEG and they aren't stealing it from them. That means bidding war. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bidding War

    by daninfw04 Nov 16, 2015 2:01 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 16, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    Investors reading headlines and not the content. Two friends sent me e-mails this morning thinking NXST had made a $15.71 offer. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 16, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Thanks Dan but his post actually makes me feel even stronger about a large premium here. The poster has never posted under this id before. He created it just for this instance. A good example of a basher being paid to bash to keep the price down or he himself is bashing and buying and creating a new id each time he bashes and buys or pump and dumps. As Salsam says a good reason many legit posters don't post anymore. This guy is the scam artist. Looking for $18+.....DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Nov 17, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    NXST's current offer, even though rejected is now valuing MEG at over $15.93 with NXST just hitting $60.36. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Nov 17, 2015 8:14 PM Flag

    If you google news for media general there is a great article just out two hours ago about great move on MEG's part hiring Goldman and how MEG should fetch $17 at a minimum. One morning we will awaken and find ourselves $2-3+ per share richer. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Nov 18, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    One other thing I thought of is interesting. NXST has to get serious and offer a really over the top offer. let's say they offer just $17 a share.......MDP has made it clear they aren't jut going to walk away. Their merger agreement makes it clear they can offer a higher price. If NXST offers $17 they could easily say we offer $17 too and our deal is better because you don't have to pay us $65 million penalty fee. Actually, they could offer just $16.50 and it would be considered a superior offer considering they don't get $65 million penalty. MDP is going to keep NXST honest. They have to make an offer at least 50 cents higher than what MDP might offer. We may actually see numerous bidding rounds unless NXST gets serious and just offers $19-20 and even then MDP might not walk away. Remember, NXST and MDP stocks are moving higher. The merger could be paid for with cash and stock or even all stock for that matter. This is why MEG is staying about 4-5%+/- less than current offer on the table. A $5 movement in NXST price effects the deal 45 cents. This is one o those deals that might easily top all expectations. Going to be interesting. I just don't see MDP letting NXST stal the company on the cheap. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bidding

    by daninfw04 Nov 18, 2015 10:05 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Nov 18, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    I would add that NXST was prepared to offer $17 without review the books. They have had almost a month already to review the books. MEG BOD's have a price they want and NXST already knows what they are willing to pay. Investors may get antsy if the deal takes several weeks but actually the longer it takes means more bidding. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy