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Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 402 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • This actually came out a day or so ago but the Koch brothers plan to spend $900 MILLION in the 2016 election. They spent $400 million in 2012 and came up empty handed. Now, they plan to spend an extra half billion. You can bet the billionaire Democrats will up the ante as well. 2016 political is going to be incredible:
    "It was interesting while it lasted, but the 2016 election is now officially “bought.”

    The purchasers are the Koch brothers, and the price, a cool $889 million.

    The news that the network organized by David and Charles Koch plans to spend roughly $900 million in the 2016 cycle has freaked out Democrats, outraged so-called campaign-finance reformers and inspired hand-wringing about the future of Planet Earth.

    The despair is misplaced. One sign it’s still a free country is that a band of like-minded people, devoted to principles they consider essential to the country’s thriving, can get together and try to effect them in public policy.

    My only quibble with the Kochs’ announcement is that they didn’t nail a nice, round $1 billion, as the most eloquent possible rejoinder to erstwhile Majority Leader Harry Reid’s campaign of vilification last year.

    For all that campaign reformers hate the Kochs, the brothers’ network is, in part, their creation.

    “This is the natural consequence,” campaign-finance reformer Lawrence Lessig griped about the $889 million, “of a regime with essentially no contribution limits.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NAB Now Supports Auction

    by daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 8:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 23 hours ago Flag

    I think the smart money already heard. I don't think SBGI will back off 100%. They do have real issues with transponders, repeaters, etc. that could cause loss of audience. SBGI also wants to lease the spectrum to carriers and give 5% to the government. However, we now have the juggernaut CBS wanting to sell spectrum that has an enterprise value 6 times that of SBGI. I predict the FCC is going to get their #$%$ together and work with NAB on these technical issues. The FCC now has more money to throw at the broadcasters with the success of this auction. I also believe they will address issues of LPTV's to keep them from filing a lawsuit. If NAB is on the side of broadcasters that want to sell it removes a major hurdle. They also represent the LPTV's. The FCC wants this to happen. I also believe their is a lot of incentive to do it before the elections. JMVHO but the political talk is softening which signals parties want to negotiate.Also, keep in mind for the billions on the table now the broadcasters have a big incentive to get onboard. After the auction many will be forced to move even if they don't participate. The FCC will have the right to move them after the auction to clear the band. You either get paid or you don't. This isn't rocket science. I also believe the shorts have zeroed in on EVC to drive it down so they can cover cheaply. The problem is there's no volume. When they do start to cover it will pop. There is enough buying to keep it from crashing. Even if sector keeps coming out with bad earnings/revenues it's gotten to be old news. I also believe that SBGI, GTN, EVC, NXST, MEG are going to have some positive surprises. The ones reporting to date are mainly content providers and cost of content is going up. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CMO Gone

    by daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 9:37 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 23 hours ago Flag

    I can't type this morning. I meant to say "read my posts from 2009". DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CMO Gone

    by daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 9:37 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 9:40 AM Flag

    I said in 2009 when they hired this idiot that had experience from Bass Pro and ConAgra that it was a mistake. Read my pots from 2209. I was right again. Interesting that this happened 5 days ago and yet PBY's has yet to make an announcement. The good news is it appears their is housecleaning in order. I am gambling that this is a start. Wait till I post the next article. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    Mark HardenNews Director-
    Denver Business Journal
    Email | Twitter | LinkedIn | Google+
    Ron Stoupa, a marketing executive with Pep Boys since 2009, has been named executive vice president and chief marketing officer at Sports Authority -- the latest of several marketing leaders at the Englewood-based company in recent years.

    "Ron has more than 20 years of experience leading marketing strategies across a variety of retail industries," said Michael Foss, the national sporting-goods retailer's CEO. "This extensive professional experience allows for a unique analytical and creative marketing perspective. We are thrilled to have Ron on board to lead our marketing efforts and help build the Sports Authority brand with new and existing customers."

    Stoupa joined automotive-parts retailer Pep Boys in 2009 as vice president of marketing and was named its CMO in September 2012.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NAB Now Supports Auction

    by daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 8:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    Yahoo deleted the last two posts. Google and get entire article. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NAB Now Supports Auction

    by daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 8:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 31, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    "Jessell at Large

    NAB Board: Go For Auction; Split On ATSC 3.0

    The trade group says it’s looking out for the interests of broadcasters who now are interested in selling some of their spectrum back to the government, as well as those who don’t. But it should commission more research on spectrum value. More problematic is its divided stance on the next-gen TV transmission standard. While most affiliates want to go full bore on developing and implementing the new standard, the networks want to slam on the brakes. That's too bad. If ATSC 3.0 is to have a chance of saving broadcasting, it's going to need all the help it can get.

    By Harry A. Jessell

    TVNewsCheck, January 30, 2015 3:41 PM EST

    Members of the NAB TV board left their winter meeting this week in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., unified on how to proceed on the FCC incentive auction. Going forward, the NAB will represent broadcasters who are interested in selling spectrum as well as those who are not.

    From the moment in 2009 when the FCC first floated the idea of buying back TV spectrum and then selling it to wireless carriers, the NAB has been fully engaged in making sure the initiative did not adversely affect broadcasters who had no intention of selling.

    It saw to it that the authorizing legislation for the auction included safeguards for the non-participating broadcasters. In repacking the TV band after the auction, the FCC would have to make "all reasonable efforts" to preserve their pre-auction

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There was an article that came out 19 minutes before market closed yesterday that said NAB is now supporting the auction. They just finished a meeting in Fort Lauderdale. It appears that all the billions of dollars in free money has gotten many members to say back off. They want the auction to happen. I will now post the article. It may be more than one. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 30, 2015 8:40 PM Flag

    There were articles on day they filed. Nothing new.

  • Reply to

    To evercore / Wedbush morons

    by wilib914 Jan 30, 2015 7:43 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 30, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    Just FYI but I posted this before but the Wedbush idiot used lower and wrong eps and fcc numbers as well. He said spectrum at $400 million but then said he was only using $200 million in his model. That alone was $2 a share. He would have come up with $10 otherwise. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 30, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    I want to state one last thing today before I forget. My recommendation today to buy EVC has nothing to do with metrics. If the market crashed 15-20% and EVC drops to $4 it's a gift. EVC is about spectrum now. Buy it for spectrum alone. The metrics of FCF, EPS, etc. will always support EVC worth $5-7. Your downside is maybe 10-20% while your upside is hundreds of percent. It's a no-brainer. If you think about it, the worst the sector gets or EVC's performance gets or if overnight the current broadcast model disappears.......it only means they have to sell the spectrum, want to sell the spectrum, whatever.........EVC is about spectrum now for the LT smart investors. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 30, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    I was just thinking back to 2007-2008 when many of us just got attracted to this sector. SBGI was barely over a dollar and EVC, GTN and several others were selling for pocket change under a dollar. BLC, LIN and others were a buck or two as well. Many of us made a fortune because we saw what would happen over the next few years. Martel, valueinvestor and others gave us inside numbers on what they were getting in retrans and how it was going to grow over the years. Nobody at the time saw retrans being in the billions. Nor did they see the revenues coming from digital and mobile. The smart money wrote this sector off as dead. We made 5, 10, 20 and even 30 times our money. We were the dummies, right? The losers. Well, I think it's our turn again. Nobody smart has yet figured out what's it's going to be worth soon in this sector. Martel said it on the SBGI message board. He said all those billions in debt for SBGI were going to disappear after the auction. I would add that if you take just the lowest number of $1 billion that's more than 2 and a half times EVC's current debt. At $4 billion it's ten+ times EVC's debt. Why can't the smart money see this. Maybe they have and is why they are manipulating the stock and buying it cheap. This is simple math. At $1 billion divided by 90 million shares you get $11+ per share, at $2 billion $22 per share, at $3 billion $33 per share, at $4 billion $44 per share. Watch and learn. Sit on the sidelines or settle for nickels and dimes. I intend to make a few million on this and not settle for a measly few thousand dollars. That's for beginners. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 30, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    Been busy today. Bought 40,000 PBY's at $8.42 today. Another one I have never lost money on in 20 years.
    Bargains abound. I have said for months if not years that EVC is most volatile stock in sector. I said a week or so ago I was looking to trade again soon. EVC tops at $7+/-, pulls back and starts again. Nothing New. Sometimes we miss it a dime or two. I have said someone may try and steal the company cheap. It may yet happen but Univision and super voting shares stand in the way. Hedge funds look for stocks that are going up 20-30%. That's their mentality. They don't think about making 1,000% on their money. EVC is and will be a spectrum play. I think the base support will continue to move up as the smarter investors buy and put it away. I still believe a catalyst is coming. I don't have a crystal ball as to when. Weak hands need to take their profits and move on. We are still up almost 61% from the low just a few months ago. Nobody can call us losers. Will we hit $5? Perhaps. Will we hit $8? Perhaps. My wife has about convinced me to hold on to my 220,000 shares till after the auction. EVC is the only play where you can buy spectrum for 10-20 cents on the dollar. I would also point out that for the last few months, the official statement is that the auction was scheduled for early 2016. The FCC Chairman yesterday said it was scheduled for the "BEGINNING" of 2016 and he thought on schedule. He also laid out why it would be more successful than current auction. He called it "oceanfront" spectrum and pointed out that the 2008 auction happened only one year after the introduction of the I-Phone. The number of people using smartphones and the amount of time they spend on them is only increasing. You can all believe what you want. The spectrum will happen. I don't believe there is anywhere on this green earth you can make as much return on your money as EVC. We will either make 500%+/ on our money in one year or 250%+/- on our money for two years. Beat that. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 30, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    You must be a mind reader. I bought 40,000 PBY today at $8.42 in the last few minutes of trading. Can't see it going much lower even if market crashes. Probably 50 cents downside and $2 upside. 4 to 1 odds. Almost any news could spark a bounce. Just in it for the trade. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 30, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    An analyst who published figures showing big increases in commercial loads at Fox Broadcasting and several cable programmers now says the data he used was incorrect, resulting in a “massive error.”

    In a letter to people who receive his reports, Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson Research, said he used data from TiVo, but that “unfortunately, as it turns out, TiVo’s data set incorrectly calculated the number [of] commercial minutes.”

    Nathanson now says he believes that Fox’s commercial load was flat to slightly down in the fourth quarter, and not up by 12%. He said the ad load for Viacom’s networks was up mid-to-high single digital, not the 8% he’d originally reported. And the ad load at Discovery was down low-single digits, not up 5%.

    Nathanson said he corroborated the new estimates by checking against Nielsen’s Monitor Plus service.

    “Given the ratings declines in the quarter, there was no doubt a shift to running shorter length commercials, which shows up a higher unit count data,” he said. “However, a better metric for increased unit ad loads is average commercial minutes per hour. Going forward, we will look to use this . . . and will check future data sets against Nielsen Monitor Plus.”

    Nathanson also apologized to his readers and to the companies involved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 29, 2015 10:38 PM Flag

    Yesterday an analyst reported that several networks had increased ad spots to make up for weak market. This really spooked the sector. After market closed today he apologized and said his report was wrong because of data. He now says ad spots were much lower and actually negative for some networks. There was real concern that networks were inserting more ads to make up for lost revenues. Most of these analysts are idiots. Might be positive for tomorrow. Definitely good news for sector. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EVC vs GTN

    by daninfw04 Jan 29, 2015 6:18 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 29, 2015 7:38 PM Flag

    I posted after last presentation that CFO said everyone now wanted spectrum value to sell their stations. May put a damper on it other than merger of equals. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 29, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    As some of you know I have been buying GTN last few days as well. I just wanted to share a comparison. It was quick math and I probably missed a thing or two but I wanted to compare the closing enterprise value today for GTN and EVC with estimates of spectrum value from the Greenhill report. It just goes to show how undervalued EVC is going to be in the near future:
    GTN EV today at $1.79 BILLION while spectrum value is $842,000
    EVC EV today was $872 MILLION while spectrum value is $2,269,000 BILLION
    This translates to GTN selling for twice EV while EVC is selling for one third of enterprise value. That's a difference of 600%+/-.............makes one think. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Article copy/paste

    by wilib914 Jan 29, 2015 6:00 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 29, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    This was actually a recap of yesterday. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Auction on Schedule

    by daninfw04 Jan 29, 2015 2:11 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 29, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    I have to add that AT&T which has bid $20-22 billion in this auction has already committed to at least $9 billion in the next auction.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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