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Gray Television Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 402 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 27, 2014 11:35 AM Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Big Day

    by daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 4:17 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 27, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Lee, just keep in mind I am happy with a 10-15% return on the 60,000 I bought at an average of $6.55. When you can make 10-15% once a month or so that's like doubling or tripling your money on an annual basis. My average cost on the original investment is now around $5.51 on remaining 97,035 remaining shares from original 220,000. I plan to try and hold a large block at all times in the event of a bigger move. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Big Day

    by daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 4:17 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 27, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Joe, I think we agree overall. It would be very difficult for a friendly buy out of EVC because of Univision 10% right to approve any buy out and super voting stock of the other three insiders. However, I do believe the float is starting to dry up and what is getting bought is being held not traded by most buyers. The newer holders are betting for a big payoff down the road 1-2 years. The older holders have already held for years in most cases and now see their reward just ahead. Any weakness in the stock will just cause these holders to buy more when it dips. At these prices EVC is just a spectrum play. Just worth $7 based on metrics and $8 in a buy out. But, if someone has become convinced or becomes convinced in the future that the spectrum is worth many times current value................then everything you and I know about the market is out the window. My gut like you tells me no. But, these guys have BILLIONS to put aside and wait for years. The average hedge fund that buys out a company to sell assets, restructure, etc. and then bring public again has a normal window of 3-5 years. Look at Univision. Those guys have already waited over 5 years. 12-15 months is fast for these guys. I think over the next few months we will see a large holder emerge that rattles the cage for a shakeup and selloff of assets. They will seek BOD representation, etc. We could also see a price of $12+/- offered if it becomes apparent that spectrum is worth $2-4 billion. They would be stealing the company but that's the way it works. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Day

    by daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 4:17 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 27, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    I still think $9-10 is the number unless a bidding war because of specrtum. The changes they made recently and filed with the SEC has to be because they are aware of someone taking an interest in them IMVHO. The company knows who is buying. I also forgot to add that recent buying could even just be the company thinking these are as cheap as it is going to get. I also said before that it looks like all the weak hands are out. I don't see this going above $8 unless there is a buy out or someone speculating on the spectrum value. Great trading stock at these levels. The spectrum value is there but the auction itself gets cloudier every day. The longer the better for LT holders. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Day

    by daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 4:17 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 9:53 PM Flag

    We are assuming it is one big buyer. It could be one or more. If we see a 10% holder emerge it has to be someone already reporting at least a 5% stake. Anytime you go over 5% or 10% you have to report within 2-3business days. The best catalyst would be a brand new holder reporting a 5% stake and making comments about making changes, etc. however, we could have a brand new holder staying just under 5% that has till 2-15-15 to report Q4 holdings. We may well see where several institutions added in Q4 by 2-15-15. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    Everything is always relative. Today was one of the 4-5 slowest trading days of the year.......yet, EVC traded more than double the volume of last year and almost that of a regular day for a few months back. Last year volume was only 183,800 shares and today 398,043. Someone dumped 50,000-70,000 shares in the last minute but stock was actually starting to move back up again. Someone was buying all they could today while trying to keep the price from popping. They kept it in narrow range till another buyer would show up and then he would take it out and move it up again. Also, short interest as of 12-15-14 was 1,907,366 up from 1,572,824 from 11-30-14. IMVHO this is good as we probably had a ton more shorts after 12-15-14 when the downgrades hit. If the big buyer is back this will put a squeeze on the shorts. I wouldn't be surprised if short interest is 2.5 million shares today..........will be fuel for the upcoming fire. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Big Buyer Is Back

    by daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 10:46 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Whoever is buying today is being careful not to push the price up with low volume. Traded about 50,000-80,000 shares around $6.66-$6.67 and now about 50,000 at $6.70-$6.71.......regardless of activity, the size stays the same. If I had to guess, it's whoever bought a ton above $7 and just trying to accumulate more. I suspect we will pop well over $7 first week of January........if not sooner. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Dec 26, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Someone is snapping up everything they can get today. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Dec 24, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    Just wanted to take a moment and wish All a Merry Christmas. Best Wishes to you and your families. Dan

  • Reply to

    Wedbush Analyst Is An Idiot

    by daninfw04 Dec 22, 2014 8:59 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 22, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Keep in mind the CFO was buying at a nickel cheaper than today's close just a few weeks back........DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wedbush Analyst Is An Idiot

    by daninfw04 Dec 22, 2014 8:59 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 22, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    As I said Friday, the MM put a floor in for the time being by buying the last block of over 450,000 shares last trade at $6.45.......today he gradually fed them back at a nickel profit per share. No big buyers or sellers today. I think smart money is holding pat. Much lower than this and the company starts buying again IMVHO. If Barron's had not republished the article twice today it might have been different as well. There were no big buyers for two days before article. I think Wedbush let their clients out before the article. There are many uncertainties and will be much volatility in EVC for some time to come. Great trading stock. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Have you read the entire analysis? This guy is an idiot and can't even do math. He says 9X FCF plus $2 for spectrum makes $7 a share. That would mean $450 million FCF divided by 90 million shares plus $2 spectrum value. Even if he was correct on the assumptions..........FCF will be about $630 million in 2014 and at least $60-65 million in 2015 an off political year. Let's take $65 million average FCF per year. That would be $6.50 per share plus $2 spectrum which makes $8.50 per share. Where did they find this fifth grade elementary school drop outs? Then, he says spectrum could actually be worth a lot more,,,,,,,but might be longer than anticipated. However, he even calculates the most would be $400 million. Yes, instead of $1, 2, 3 or 4 billion they could get just $400 million. If so, that's still $4.50 per share not $2.00 per share and added to the correct 9X FCF of $6.50 makes EVC worth at least $11 by his assumptions. What an idiot. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Economy?

    by parisite76 Dec 21, 2014 9:12 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 22, 2014 8:38 AM Flag

    There was an article where advertisers are starting to spend more to get some of that extra money. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 20, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    I already said it. They downgraded EVC and upped PT from $6.50 to $7.00.....don't forget last presentation the CFO said their spectrum was worth $1-2 BILLION based on Greenhill report. He even failed to mention it was worth $2-4 billion based on current spectrum auction. Keep in mind they can only deal with facts and real numbers. The spectrum could be worth $4 billion or zero if auction never happens or SBGI is successful in getting auction canceled so they themselves can lease the spectrum to telecoms or even go in the business for themselves. If that happens then the sector has a new revenue stream and would also bounce but not as much IMVHO. You really need to look at the last SBGI presentation if you haven't. Also, Congress if auction doesn't happen by end of 2016 could just not renew licenses, change the laws, take the spectrum for taxpayers, etc. Many people have a problem with the broadcasters getting paid billions for something they don't even own. This is why this is going to be a very volatile stock till auction.........I do suspect the smart money will try to take private sooner than later. As we get a final real auction date that we know will happen, I am betting someone will take this company out at $9-12 a share before any of this happens. EVC will rocket if not taken out by then. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 2:34 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    The last trade which was not reported was between 450,000 and 475,000 shares at $6.45.......looks like big seller most of the day and he finally dumped towards the close a few hundred thousand shares and it would appear the MM took it down to $6.44-$6.45 where he bought it for inventory. He took it down to where he felt comfortable taking out the block. Monday will tell the tale but I suspect we have a lot of support at current level. We dropped to $6.41 briefly when Evercore downgraded and today at the close hit $6.40 briefly. I ended up today with 20,000 at $6.52, 20,000 at $6.55 and 20,000 for $6.58. I replaced about half of the 122,965 shares sold last few days at $7.10 to $7.26.............I love this stock. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 2:34 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Keep in mind at the last presentation the CFO intimated that they were not buying stock at the higher levels. If we drift down much more I suspect the company will spend the other $10 million. They know it's worth $10+.....DaninFW

  • Reply to

    A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 2:34 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    18 months is about 3-4 months after current auction date projection. If auction gets moved another year add a year but I think auction will happen in 2015. EVC could be worth $30+ if they sell everything and get out of business. I don't see EVC management doing that. I see speculators buying company for $10-12 and doing that. $15 is if they remain a standalone company. I don't think we will ever realize full value as it will get bought out. I also see 2015 as being a very big year for M&A which should also lift sector. I see at least two out of EVC, NXST and GTN getting gobbled up in 2015. If not, they will gobble up other broadcasters to stay independent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    Well 2014 ended up nothing like 2010 which lyingmonger beat into the ground. We are $7 and almost hit $8 not $1 like he predicted. Management sold a few shares at $7 and now 3 insiders buying back and last time at $6.47. Company is even buying back shares to the tune of $20 million. 2015 looks more promising than ever. Spectrum values keep going up and up. EVC is a great trading stock but will be $15+ within 18 months. I don't see much downside from here and expect to make up most of today's losses before the close. Another major factor for support is about 9 million shares have traded at $7 or higher in the past 5-7 trading days. That is considerable support and represents most of the float now. Do you really think the people that bought those 9 million shares are standing in line to sell? Don't think so. GLTA as 2015 looks brighter than ever for EVC shareholders. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom

    by daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 10:45 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Went on and put in another order for 20,000 at $6.52 since there is a block of 10,500 bid at $6.51,,,,,,,DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Bottom

    by daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 10:45 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    At $6.50 this is a strong buy again. It's an easy 10-15% pop in 30 days or less. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom

    by daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 10:45 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 19, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    If it dips below $6.50 again, I too will pick up another 20,000.......DaninFW

GTN
11.45+0.13(+1.15%)Dec 26 4:02 PMEST

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