I've been buying the USCXW's below $3.15 and just putting back. Think I'll get $10+ next 12 months. Have an average cost of $2.97 on the ones I've bought. Have a great Easter. Got all the kids and grands coming to my house Sunday. Nothing like the little people. BTW, I have put HOV on my screen last few weeks as well. DaninFW
When you say "small chance", anyone has to accept that there is a chance Aereo will win. The odds are actually improving. Google some of the recent info. Thousands of pages of Friends of the Court have been filed on behalf of Aereo. The fact that any broadcasters has sided with Aereo is mind blowing. Aereo needed 5 judges now they need only 4. By the same token, the broadcasters will need 5 out of the 8 judges to side with them. If you don't think America is getting bought and sold piece meal you're nuts. Each of these justices owe somebody for getting their position.........a politician that's getting money from these billion dollar corporations. The law has nothing to do with it. Remember, one of the justices that would have sided with the broadcasters has recused himself. He was a slum dunk. The only other slam dunk is Ginsburg who is known for her strong position on copyright. In fact, Ginsburg will read opening arguments p[resented by her daughter, a lawyer, on behalf of the broadcasters. No question at least 2 of the justices owe Obama. But, they will need at least a few more on their side. This is not going to be a slam dunk. Smart money knows that. I hope to get out of EVC before the May decision. I see more downside than upside till the decision is made. JMVHO. DaninFW
I was very upset yesterday evening . Happy for you. I sold 120,000 SD the day before at $6.38 that I had bought at $6.08........made $36K but left a lot on the table. One day in the next 6-12 months IMVHO, SD will be $8+.......I will continue to trade and hope I am holding on that day. DaninFW
I always overanalyze. I used to teach my managers to always think that the competition was smarter than us. That way we always won. Otherwise, they would never have prepared for the unexpected. My feelings for Aereo is the same. They are a bunch of thieves.......but you also don't want to know what I think about Obamacare......and the Supreme Court ruled it legal. As I have said before, the Supreme Court is currently full of atheists, gays and womanizers. Anything can happen. By the way, Zack's just upped EVC this morning to #1 Strong Buy. DaninFW
This is mainly for truth.monger........in an earlier posting I believe you mentioned this case has little or nothing to do with EVC. I believe quite the contrary. Time Warner was thinking of buying Aereo or starting a similar service. Several large cable companies have filed Friends of the Court petitions because if Aereo wins, they will start a similar service......and eliminate retrans fees for every broadcaster including EVC. May take a few years to disappear but they could go away. This is what is spooking the entire sector. This sector will bounce 20-30% if they win the court case.
I would add that I think the broadcasters with the help of Congress and the Obama administration would start scrambling their signals. If Congress won't let them, then they could start Regional channels with national programming wrapped in local news and sports. They could then use their current broadcast model to do reruns or anything just to tie up the spectrum. It would be like HBO and all their variations. HBO broadcasts on about a dozen different channels. I could think up a dozen different scenarios. There are millions of people smarter than me. Broadcasters aren't going to let the cable companies get free content. They will figure it out. Until the market confirms that Aereo is illegal or the broadcasters launch a new format this sector will be weak. DaninFW
Just had over 30,000 share show as a trade in volume at $5.65-$5.66......but traded was not actually reported separately.........interesting. DaninFW
A block of 55,000 in one trade just crossed a few minutes ago at $5.58......another big seller today. It does appear that someone is buying whatever is being dumped.
In answer to your question, I am not an expert as to what a "market maker" ACTUALLY does. They are supposed to maintain an orderly market for the stock they make a market in........depending on the stock, i.e. highly volatile, heavily traded, thinly traded, etc. the market maker has varying levels of actual control. A stock like EVC can easily be manipulated IMVHO. Let's say I manage a large fund and want to buy 300,000 shares of EVC. Unlike you and me that places a trade with our broker.......the fund manager might call the market maker and say I want to buy 300,000 shares but I don't want to pay more than $5.70 for it........the fund manager knows that if he just placed an order for 300,000 shares he might drive up the price 10-20 cents before he buys 1,000 shares. However, let's say EVC is at $5.66 like this morning.......he could actually sell off his inventory to drive the price down so that he can replenish his personal inventory knowing he can turn around and sell it to the fund manager for $5.70...........you see this often at the close where the market maker buys all day long and unloads at the close when you see the price come back nicely. Just one scenario. DaninFW
The wall may have just come down. All day, EVC reaches $5.60 and then goes back down........just saw 33,000 share block go at $5.60.....we dipped again. Somebody is unloading a ton at $5.60.......will be interesting to see how much more. It does look like market maker is trying to hold at this level. DaninFW
I understand but market doesn't. Entire sector is weak and EVC is crashing in sympathy. Most investors don't even know what they own. DaninFW
IMVHO the entire sector is waiting for next Wednesday and beginning arguments in the Aereo case. The court was swamped with Friends of the Court petitions in favor of Aereo.......from Google, Microsoft, Yahoo and many others. Even some of the smaller broadcasters are siding with Aereo. One of the Justicles has recused himself and that just leaves 8 Justices. All Aereo has to do now is get 4 judges to side with them instead of 5. A tie goes in favor of Aereo. Obama administration is on the side of broadcasters. I still think ABC will win but not a lot of money being bet right now in favor of broadcasters. DaninFW
I have seen nothing where eyeball count was down 10-20% a year. Last year one was down 17% and the other up 21% because the other had Olympics that year. I would believe 3-5%. I also have heard all the arguments. I have made them myself. However, we often forget that these broadcasters are content providers themselves with local news and local sports. That's what makes the package. Univision cannot duplicate that. One needs the other. I suspect we will see regional cable channels one day soon. We used to have them in the early days of cable and they got bought out by the nationals. No question this sector is going to go through dramatic evolutionary changes. One does have to ask what is EVC really up to with hiring all the recent execs? I think the Todobebe is just the first step just like SBGI starting their own wrestling network. Most of the big broadcasters still have at least 3-5 years left on their contracts with ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, CW, etc. I would add that local advertising would be hard to generate without setting up satellite offices in every market and hiring staff. Things will certainly change. DaninFW
PBY may be a little dangerous. Has to be several analysts downgrades and downward EPS revisions coming next few days. GAMCO is also key. Might start accumulation below $10 but need to watch a day or so. They already said they have blown Q1 as well pretty much. Not much reason for optimism. May not bounce back to $12+ as it has in the past. Gabelli has got to be thinking twice. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Just broke below 52 week low......everyone that bought this stock in last 12 months is now underwater, I think we will see $9.50-$9.80 today or tomorrow. However, last quarter they had another bad report but Gabelli bought and pushed it up. Can't believe he isn't doing that today. That might actually be a big concern if he is throwing in the towel. If GAMCO is dumping today we could crash further. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Not in PBY at present. I expected another disappointment due to recent and current inclement weather. I am not going to say a lot as nothing has changed. Read any of my posts for the last 2-3 years. The problem is:
1) O'Dell who is a Sears reject.
2) At least 2 of the current top VP's are Sears rejects brought over by O'Dell
3) the hub and spoke concept is cannibalizing same store sales as I have said for years
4) current HR VP is another joke with no industry experience. Oh yea, he joined some car clubs.......
5) BOD's also have zero experience in this sector
6) Where do I stop?
PBY does make a great trading stock as eternal optimism is alive and well. Goes up when Gabelli pumps and drops when reality hits every quarter report. DaninFW
This morning the volume was above average with someone continuing to dump big trades. At the close, in the last 2-3 minutes we moved back from $5.83 to $5.88 with at least three trades buying at 20,000+ shares each trade. Someone was buying big at the close. This usually indicates that big seller is done. Tomorrow should be interesting. This stock often moves 20-30 cents either way when we have a big seller or big buyer. DaninFW
Again, I am not as high on EVC as almost any other company in sector. It's just a trade and an assumption. I also stress I did not say fraudulent. I said sand bagging. It's all legal as long as you do t once a year. If you look at PBY and look at last 4-7 years you see it Q4 every single year. What you and I don't see is when they adjust their accruals for bad debt, etc. I expected more in Q4 for EVC. As for insider selling........they aren't always right and secondly, capital gains taxes jumped 5%+ this year and the Obama tax kicked in as well as higher tax rates in general. Insiders will have to pay 5-10% more in taxes this year. We'll see. I may not keep to earnings if I can make a quick dime or two. It may be all academic. DaninFW
Again, I am betting on millions more in advertising for Obamacare both because government cut spending in Q4 because system was down for 2 months and because in Q1 they dumped hundreds of millions in advertising with tons going to radio. Companies are also notorious for dumping everything including kitchen sink in Q4 they waited all year to do.......especially when Q4 was so strong. I think they sandbagged Q4 and it should have been much better, I also think retrans was up. We'll see. JMVHO. DaninFW
I don't think Univision could turn down a serious offer.....the litigation would cost them a fortune. Secondly, they want to go public. The extra cash in the coffers would make a Univision IPO even more attractive. At say $8.00 a share buyout that would give Univision over $70 million cash to their balance sheet. I would add that 2013 was not a great year for retrans at EVC . 2014 will be better and 2015 even much better. EVC does not generate as much political as counterparts. 2 years of piggybacking retrans as well as digital growth could add millions more than expected. It's a shame they aren't driving expenses down. The interest savings will start to drop dramatically in 12-18 months. Again, this company is so poorly run it would be quite easy for an upside surprise. DaninFW