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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 273 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • Closed at the high of the day and in after hours closed at the high for the week on the highest volume in several days. West Face is trying to steal shares cheap but the weak hands are slowly dropping away. Up almost 3% for the week and after the new WF filing. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Daninfw: the latest on the M&A activity?

    by shorthighcoverlower May 20, 2015 10:31 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 22, 2015 12:22 AM Flag

    I would add that if you assume PBY's real estate was worth $11.50 a share or $650 million........whoever they sell it to and lease it back to them will want at least 6% back which is $39 million a year in rent which they aren't paying now. That's 80 cents a share+/-.........gives you an idea of how poorly PBY really is operating. They have stores paying zero rent currently. Whoever they hire is going to have to do a helluva job just to get PBY's to breakeven if they sell the real estate. Gabelli will take anything close to $11 just to get out. He's painted himself into a corner and would crash the stock if he ever bailed out and dumped his holdings. JMVHO DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 21, 2015 9:55 PM Flag

    Last quarter when West Face announced their large new position, EVC closed at $7.09 the day before the filing. The next day, EVC closed down 8 cents at $7.01........this time EVC closed at $6.60 the day before they announced they added another 1.5 million shares and we have closed above $6.60 every day since then. It sure looks to me like the weak hands are getting weeded out and WF is doing a great job of accumulating shares without popping the price. I also have to question the $50 million in cash on hand as of 3-31-15 which will be about $60 million+ on 6-30-15. They will be at $80-85 million by end of year. Boy, sector has been strong. You would think these guys could figure it out. GTN just bought a station for under $40 million that will be immediately accretive. Our management will buy some digital or mobile operation losing money promising to be profitable in 2-3 years. Our best hope is they sell all the spectrum and get out of broadcasting radio and tv which they don't have a clue as to how to run. EVC worth more dead than alive. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Daninfw: the latest on the M&A activity?

    by shorthighcoverlower May 20, 2015 10:31 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 21, 2015 9:38 PM Flag

    Haven't been in PBY in a month or so. I sure would have dumped above $11...........I have said for about 5+ years now that there real estate was worth $10+ a share but the downside has always been if PBY sold and did a lease back they would pay $250,000-$300,000+ per location in rent annually perhaps more. That alone would make any marginal locations instantly unprofitable. Even if you assume it is worth $11.50, the analyst also drew the same conclusion and you would have to knock off at least $1-2 per share for that. That really makes PBY worth about $9.50-$10.50 based on current performance. If PBY's gets an offer it will be $11-12 tops IMVHO. The fund buying it would sell all real estate, do lease backs, sell everything not tied down and leave the remaining stores highly levered with long term high rents. They would sell anything they could to AZO, AAP and ORLY. They would leave a shell really slimmed down and then bring back in an IPO in 2-4 years. IMVHO, PBY has 10% upside and 20% downside. Gabelli wants out and would easily take $11 for his 20% stake. It's dead money. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    daninfw Question

    by parisite76 May 20, 2015 3:55 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 20, 2015 11:02 PM Flag

    At this point in time I like HK better than SD. They are 81% oil and SD is 50% oil. HK much better leveraged especially in 2016. However, big concern is Grand Jury Investigation at SD. I'm watching closely and soon to load the truck up if I think we have finally bottomed. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Scalper tickets

    by infotraxx May 18, 2015 4:30 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 18, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    Very interesting day after the filings. Institutions dropped from 80.96% to 80.21% for the quarter. But, WF is now the largest holder and IMVHO will continue to take out weak hands and big sellers for some time to come. This morning we had someone dumping a very small block and drove it down. Then it roared back. In the last 30 minutes we traded about half the volume of the day with someone dropping big blocks but getting taken out very quickly and stock recovering again at the close. I'm still holding for a few days till the smoke clears. It amazes me that we have had some resident board idiots over the last few months and apparently gone now. When I was having trouble with my ID and found out that Yahoo was changing their profile info that they released to the public I noticed we only had one idiot posting that used to be a cheerleader. The bashers and buyers gave up. Those of us with any intelligence knows that this is a gift and not something that's going to pop $2-3 tomorrow.......or extremely unlikely. It's like having a Jumbo CD paying you 50%-100%+ per year interest. If anyone did believe that broadcasting was dying then they should be buying the sector thinking they all are going to cash out for billions. I am amazed that only myself and a few on this message board have figured it out. I do admit I thought the entire sector would have popped by now and EVC even more. As you say, sometime in the near future, those that have stayed clear of this one time phenomenon will be willing to pay top dollar to get seats again.......while we will be sitting ringside. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'll Spoon Feed You Anyway

    by daninfw04 May 17, 2015 9:49 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 17, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    I appreciate your thoughts and agree almost 100% with all you said. I want to state again that when this whole WF takeover possibility arose was 3 months ago. Actually probably 4 months ago as it was evident to many of us that someone was buying a chunk of stock. Speculation began. I said at the time and even before that it would have to happen quickly in order to get all the approvals. I too think it almost impossible for an unfriendly takeover based on super voting stock. I just stated some possibilities. Many of us have come to the conclusion that if we can trade 5-6 times and make 50 cents +/- each time we will have the equivalent of a $3+/- move. That's my current plan and keep saying it. At the same time I will hold about 100,000+/- shares at any time in the event of a big pop. Univision is the one to watch IMVHO now....not West Face. They hold the cards on what EVC can pretty much do on spectrum. At the same time, they plan to go public and EVC is their largest broadcaster aside from themselves. EVC will only have a few months to muscle any concessions out of Univision. Univision cannot do an IPO with any major loose ends, i.e. unresolved contracts with a big chuck of their audience. EVC management sucks. They should be negotiating to get the u shares canceled or get Univision to agree to their spectrum plans before signing anything. They said last conference call that Univision wants to negotiate now. EVC should push back and ask what's it worth to them.........West Face IMVHO again is just accumulating all they can and will keep the price up till the auction. EVC actually swings about 11.3% in price about 25% of the time if you look at technical. If that isn't a great trading stock I don't know what is. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WedBush $7 PT

    by daninfw04 May 17, 2015 10:02 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 17, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    I meant to say 10X FCF not EBITDA. I would also add that their calculations of $2 per share in spectrum would be only $180 million proceeds out of $400 million. Where did the other $220 million go? Max of $80 million in taxes. Who pays these idiots? DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 17, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    Here's the capsule for why they think EVC is only worth $7. They base it on 8X instead of 10 times even though Hispanic stations are going at a premium. It should be another 2X EBITDA. Also, they admit their $400 million in spectrum is at the low end and then cut that in half to $200 million. They state EVC could use $320 million in NOL's....but why use them when the government has already approved a max of 15-20% in capital tax rates.gains. They need to use the NOL's to offset 40%+/-. In a worst case scenario at 20% and $400 million they would have $320 million left not $200 million. By their own ultra conservative projections, the PT should easily be $9-10 if you buy their spectrum number. They have one or two stations alone that could get that. Here's their capsule:
    "Maintain our $7 price target; risks. Our PT assumes ~8x FCF/share to value EVC’s operations, vs. the 6-10x peer range,
    and ~$2 per share to reflect the net, discounted value of potential sale of spectrum in the FCC incentive auction, currently
    scheduled for 2016. Risks to the attainment of our price target and investment thesis include: variance in revenue growth or
    margins, and unexpected leverage, technology, regulatory or deal trends (including the outcome of potential IPO of Univision)."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 17, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    • Key upcoming spectrum milestones within next month or so include release of final rules and resolution of pending
    litigation. Although the final rules could have some material changes, e.g., shifting opening bids to tilt more or less proceeds
    to large market licensees, we tend to believe that they will be substantially similar to those proposed in December. Litigation is
    challenging the auction/repack process as insufficiently protective of broadcasters’ current coverage areas.
    • We continue to see the bulk of EVC’s potential spectrum value as coming from roughly half a dozen markets, with
    some Wild West wild cards. The key markets – that is, with relatively lower commercial value and higher interference value -
    are Boston, Hartford, Hagerstown, MD, Washington, DC, Monterrey, CA, Santa Barbara, CA, Palm Springs, CA, and San
    Diego. The auction has less clear implications for EVC’s stations in other large markets, like Orlando and Tampa. EVC’s
    border market stations, otherwise unlikely to have much auction value, could become wild cards if the U.S. does not conclude
    an agreement with Mexico regarding the repack, in which case the auction might have to allocate more proceeds for clearance
    of stations in some of EVC’s Texas markets (e.g., McAllen, Laredo, and El Paso).
    • We expect more pre-auction deals between TV broadcasters, on channel sharing in particular, and for EVC, this could
    involve deals with Univision. EVC owns 24 Univision and 23 UniMas TV affiliates. In most of its markets, EVC owns both
    affiliates. However, in six markets – Boston, Washington, DC, Orlando, Tampa, Albuquerque and Denver – EVC and Univision
    each own one of the two Univision/UniMas-affiliated stations in the market. These could be ripe for channel-sharing deals."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The FCC has granted Pandora permission to exceed the 25% cap on foreign ownership of a broadcast station, at least for one radio station in South Dakota, though it could signal an anticipated loosening of that restriction.

    That came in a declaratory ruling in response to a petition by online music site Pandora, which wants to buy a radio station. "[W]e find that it would serve the public interest to permit a widely dispersed group of shareholders to hold aggregate foreign ownership in Pandora Media in excess of the 25% benchmark.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 17, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Keep in mind, even though the #1 and #2 guys control almost 3/4 of the vote.......one owns only about 4% of total shares and the other under 13%. That's the percent they stand to gain after spectrum or company is ever sold. West Face could present a business combination where the #1 guy for instance gets 20, 30 or 40% of a new company with West Face owning the majority. It's all about the money. Don't forget that WF specializes in alternative financing. They can easily raise the money for any deal. But, I once again state that vital time has advanced and nobody is going to steal any company holding ocean front spectrum for a song. I believe WF is now going to just buy all the shares they can without driving up the price. There is always the possibility for a merger of equals where two could merge and existing shareholders all get shares in the newly formed company. I would also add that a month or so ago, the FCC approved a foreign company going over 25%.........it has already been approved. Just google and get your own answers if you don't believe me. Kind of getting tired of spoon feeding some of the resident board idiots. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hedgefundsally

    by daninfw04 May 16, 2015 10:41 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 16, 2015 11:03 PM Flag

    To me, there are some real ethical issues with the current CEO supplying programming to EVC as well as him owning one tv station alone in LA that could bring a half billion dollars. There are some real conflict of interest issues that need to be researched IMVHO. When it comes time to sell spectrum, whose interests does he have? Is he using the task force at EVC for his personal info as well?
    3) It may also simply be that the #1 guy who is 66 and the #2 guy who is 64 are ready to cash out. The #1 guy stands to become a billionaire off the spectrum auction.
    4) WF at the very least can almost triple their current holding before needing any FCC approvals, That alone will pop the stock in time.
    5) I would add that if the BOD's were to remove either the #1 or #2 guy, their class b shares convert to class a shares I believe it's one year after termination.
    6) WF again may just want a mutually beneficial partnership as well. They already are offering phone service and buying spectrum in Canada. They know the value of spectrum and IMVHO that's why they are putting their money in EVC. Regardless, EVC is the best spectrum play of any I have calculated. I will trade and make money and have a large position when the auction happens. To each his own. GLTA. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hedgefundsally

    by daninfw04 May 16, 2015 10:41 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 16, 2015 10:55 PM Flag

    1) First off, EVC represents 24% of Univision viewers not 25%. WF could get support from Univision by approaching them and combining efforts to get EVC to take the right spectrum approach. By teaming with Univision and assuming they dramatically increase their stock position, they can work with Univision to put pressure on EVC even in regard to different classes of stock. Most recent example was where just a few people controlled LIN just like EVC but a buyout by MEG happened because management relinquished their super voting stock because they got rich. Money talks.
    2) The CEO actually controls 56.38% of the vote with class b shares and that doesn't count 110,925 shares of class a on top of that. The #2 guy controls another 17.59% of the vote and the ten executive managers including CEO's position have another 2.15% of the vote. Together they have 74.42% control. This is the tougher approach but if the #2 guy was persuaded to team with WF and say they got 22.41% of total shares with his 17.59%.....that's 40%. Many don't realize it but these companies can use cumulative voting. It's being done at PBY's right now with Gabelli owning just under 20% and nominating his own slate of 5 directors.
    West Face could also team up with other large holders for a few more percent. The point is, with cumulative voting and WF putting all their votes on just 30-40% of the slate...and appointing their own slate, they could actually elect 30-40% of the BOD's. Even at 20% and no help from the #2 guy, they could get 1 or 2 seats. What many don't realize is that the BOD's are elected not controlled by the CEO other than thru allegiance. If WF can get one or two directors on board they can actually fire the CEO and replace him if those can get the support of a majority. continued

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 16, 2015 10:41 PM Flag

    You have only posted 5 times in the past year and you sound like an intelligent person. I haven't responded to you before because I strongly suspect you are one of those I already have on ignore. You seem to be an intelligent person and I respect intelligent dialogue. You like others on this board I have on ignore have taken one or two things I said at a point in time and don't recognize other statements I have made. It's like reading one passage in the bible and not reading the preceding or proceeding passages and getting the wrong interpretation. I don't have the time or inclination to cut and paste everything to show where many whackos on this board are holding me to incorrect statements. I did say months ago that there could be a buyout at $8-10 but I also said it would have to be quick as it would take substantial time to get all the approvals in time for any entity to have a say in the spectrum auction. I posted even after that to state that auction values were being held back because nobody was selling and was waiting for the auction. For the record, EVC did run to $7.72 which is pretty darn near $8. I still think we will see well over $8 in 2015. I have also stated several times recently that WF may just want to accumulate as many shares as cheap as they can. At the same time it is possible that WF may seek a buyout or business combination with EVC and use their large position to add pressure to achieve. Before I run out of space I am going to another message to give opinions on how that can indeed transpire. I really don't care if WF is a White Knight or not. They are buying and keeping the price up till the auction. I will either way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 16, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    I am amazed at [people that post and have no earthly idea of what they speak. Foreign ownership limits were 25% not 20% but were changed in November 2013 on a case by case basis. Here's the Washington Post article:
    "The Federal Communications Commission has voted unanimously to relax a decades-old rule that kept foreigners from owning more than a 25 percent stake in a U.S. radio or television station.

    In a 5-0 vote, the FCC said it was open to considering investment proposals from international companies or individuals on a case-by-case basis. Tom Wheeler, the body’s new chairman, said the change would grant U.S. broadcasters access to new funding from foreigners and diversify programming on the air. The idea was floated last month by then-acting Chairwoman Mignon Clyburn.

    “It will encourage ownership diversity,” said Wheeler.

    The loosened restriction could also benefit large foreign companies. Grupo Televisa, a Mexican company with a minority stake in the Spanish-language station Univision, might now be able to increase its ownership. Under the terms of a $1.2 billion deal struck in 2010, Univision, which is based in New York, acquired the rights to broadcast Televisa’s soap operas in exchange for a 5 percent stake."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 16, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    Just saw final net numbers. We actually showed net decrease in institutional holdings by a couple million shares+/-. However, we do have a new largest holder, West Face. I know Salsam posted they had 9.15% of shares but that was class a, not b and c included. They only have about 6.3%+/- as of 3-31-15. American Century had over 10% of class a and did not have to file when they went over or under 10%. So, by my calculations, they can still buy another 2.2 million or so shares without an additional filing. Once they go over 10% they have to file within 2-3 business days. IMVHO they have continued to buy after 3-31-15. The stock price closed at $6.33 on 3-31-15 and we closed at $6.60 yesterday. West Face isn't doing this for the fun of it. Research old news articles. They are not passive investors. IMVHO they have a plan. It could just be to buy as many shares as they can or an actual move of some kind. I also find it odd that EVC was buying shares like crazy and all of a sudden quit in Q1 and didn't buy a single share.Sure, the price spiked but at the risk of starting a rumor, it is also typical when discussions are taking place, for a company to stop any buybacks so as not to try and manipulate stock price as things are negotiated based on stock price. The problem with schedule 13's is the news is always 6 weeks to 4.5 months old. What has happened in past 6 weeks is what is really interesting. For example, on 12-31-14, EVC closed at $6.46......millions of shares sold in Q1 and we closed at $6.33 on 3-31-15. In six weeks we have moved from $6.33 to $6.60.......almost a 5% gain in 6 weeks. That tells me it's being accumulated very slowly. The technicals after yesterday are 80% bullish. Everyone can believe what they wish but the auction is real. There were three scheduled to happen per Congressional mandate and two have already been completed. The third is scheduled for early 2016 and could be pushed back for sure. But it will happen. Great trading stock. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 16, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    I posted this and it was up for about 5 minutes and then Yahoo deleted about an hour ago. I will try again: I am still waiting for remaining filings to get posted. Probably Monday. I believe the two sellers in Q1 sold in the 6 weeks before WF filed and probably stopped which is why volume has been low and price holding last 6 weeks. Still missing info on schedule 13's. The site I use hasn't even updated WF yet. WF is taking out weak hands slowly but surely. Trading range will continue to move up over next few months imvho. I suspect we will run close to $7 early next week perhaps Monday. I only see about 80% of filings so far. I am anxious to see if we have new large holders and if new holders from Q4 added or sold positions in Q1. Anyone have a current updated site? DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    JMVHO

    by daninfw04 May 15, 2015 10:27 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 16, 2015 9:32 AM Flag

    I have traded SD many, many times and still hold a very small position, 20,000 shares. I am concerned about the Grand Jury investigation even though this is the second one and they were cleared by the other state. The issue now is bonds being converted to equity. Bonds going up and stock down in anticipation of further dilution. At some point it might be a great buy. I am loading up on HK at present instead and averaging down. They are 81% oil while SD is 50%. I also like the hedging program at HK better. They just sold $700 million in bonds due 2021 as well as traded $250 million in bonds for equity. I could type for hours on this so do your own research. Price of oil will be prime determinant as well. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 15, 2015 10:27 PM Flag

    it's easy to assume that West Face is going to be a White Knight and make all of us a ton of money. In reality they will do what is good for them not us. I have already speculated a few things they could do. However, they may simply be buying all the shares they can just like us. But, they appear to be buying shares of the big sellers and the weak hands. This alone will support the price and gradually move it north. I personally expect a major move of some kind. I am also waiting to see all the schedule 13 filings. I suspect we will run to $7 next week. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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