Dan, I also have to add that our USCR warrants have pretty much doubled in last few months. I keep buying and they keep going up. I'm at about 70,000 now of the USCXW's and USCRW's. I thought I was crazy buying 4,949 more USCRW's at $8.96 to $9.01 last week but they closed above $10 on Friday. They should hit $20 by year end. I have traded some in the past year but continued to add. The 30,000 +/- that I bought in the 3's a few months ago on the USCXW's almost hit $8 Friday. And I still have all those from bankruptcy court that are now worth about double my initial loss. Wonders never cease. DaninFW
The other issue is that the analysts have not been fooled. These idiots have tried to hide and deflect from real issues. In reality, the retrans revenue increase of $4.2 million and most if not all the $9+ million in political was give me's. A third party booked the political. The extra revenues which was over $13 million cost EVC zero dollars in extra payroll. Yes, they had to pay a third party commission probably but the point is........EVC should have REDUCED expenses by at least 10-13% in broadcast. You don't need to spend extra payroll when the revenues are incrementally gained, i.e. retrans. Even if the extra political cost the same expense, the retrans didn't. Expenses should have been down 4% regardless. Now, we have a situation where they are going into a non-political off year with expenses loaded to the brim. That's why well managed companies have a lot of part timers where they can adjust payroll when sales slow down. It appears EVC only hires incompetent full time employees that get rewarded with pay increases for sub-level performance. DaninFW
I have to first say that future results in revenues and EPS will have little effect on EVC stock price unless it looks like they are missing by large numbers. It's about unlocking the spectrum value. However, I get real irritated by incompetency and poor performance. Just wanted to show why a fund like WFC could take over this company and dramatically improve the value of current assets much less spectrum.
Management has talked for years about their double digit increases in digital and mobile. It turns out their there entire digital and mobile revenues for 2014 were only $6.644 million and that includes 6.5 months of Pulpo revenues or over $6 million. They barely did a half million in 2014 without Pulpo. I remember they hired two new VP's about a year or so ago for this division. This means all the time they were talking about how great of a job they were doing it was just a few thousand dollars each quarter. Incredible.
Now, they say they are tracking double digit this quarter. Let's say 20% growth. Even with Pulpo that's under a million dollars. Nothing. They did $165.472 million in broadcast and $69.922 million in radio. Just a 1% growth in these would be $1.65 million plus in broadcast and $700K in radio. Imagine a 5% increase! Looks to me like they need to clean house. They are giving pay increases to people that can't even beat the previous years numbers. Don't forget retrans was up $4.2 million in 2014. These idiots are chasing peanuts. Someone please takeover this company and hire people that know what they are doing.
Thanks. I forgot to mention that. They kept FY 2015 and 2016 the same as well. I see little impact from anything reported in future unless they really crash the numbers. However, they should make the 4 cents. Radio is up 11% for 2/3 of quarter and mobile/digital up double digits. That could be 11% or 51% however. Means almost nothing. They did say thru 2 months revenues are up low single digits in total.
Well said. Smart money knew what to expect after sector conference calls. The lowering of expect is priced in IMVHO. I keep saying this. EVC is a spectrum play. We should all bet against management in the future. The only thing that will take EVC down permanently IMVHO is if spectrum auction gets canceled or changes are made to it that negatively impact EVC. I also have said this for months but I believe the current shareholders except possibly management won't ever see the true value of spectrum. I think WFC is going to be very active and aggressive in going after management changes and unlocking spectrum value. If they don't someone else will. There are billions up for grabs here. Management may well put the company in play with an LBO. I have also said that several times. We may see $6 again but I think we will see $10 in next few months. JMVHO.
Just saw this morning where Q1 expect for EVC dropped from 5 to 4 cents. At SBGI they lowered from 45 to 40 cents and at MEG they clobbered it and lowered from 9 cents to just 1 cent. As I said, the CFO at MEG needs to be fired. Main reason for sector weakness yesterday. May carryover Monday.
Actually, there were three of the top five holders that dumped shares in Q4. However, there was actually a net gain in institutional holders:
60 added 4,412,801 shares
50 sold 3,780,596 shares
17 bought 1,581,256
Sold Out Positions
8 sold out 738,457
However, short interest also increased almost 370,000 shares as reported yesterday.
With everything going on yesterday, I forgot to mention that short interest dropped from 1-31-5 to 2-13-15 from 2,465,506 shares to 2,111,079 shares......almost 350,000 shares. This makes four reports in a row where short interest continues to drop. Shorts are covering. DaninFW
The average price of all shares traded today was $6.8651......pretty incredible. From $7 to $6.10 with most trading in the narrow range I mentioned before. This was also the last trading day of the month and the price that was used for any stock purchase savings plans. Interesting. DaninFW
To finish, I would rather have 10% of two million instead of 40% of $200K. In the call they also kept talking about how mobile was the fastest growing segment in their business. Then they admitted that mobile was just 25% of Pulpo numbers. That means it's only $950K in total revenue. That's less than $4 million a year. That's less than 2% of their total revenues. My 10 year old grand daughter could do better than that. They can't even manage their core business.....if they even know what their core business is.........boy, I could go on and on, but again, it's a spectrum play. These guys need to close shop and sell the spectrum. It's obvious even the radio business is worth little or nothing with these idiots running it.
IMVHO there is a big player going after EVC. This is a small fish worth the cost of a whale. WFC could get 25% control of EVC for an investment of about $150 million which is nothing to them. I think we will be hearing from them again at the latest next schedule 13 filings when they will have to show their hand. A $150 million investment could easily return a half billion. I can't believe 2 or 3 funds aren't going after it. If WFC can buy a large block from Univision or the #1 holder it's a new ball game. The problem with MEG is that the CFO didn't even understand his numbers. The hedge fund guy that has the largest position in MEG said they were going after more acquisitions. The current management team can't even handle what they have. That scares the hell out of investors, The problem with EVC is communication and transparency. They also play a smoke and mirrors game. They could learn from others. When they do their press release they need to break down in writing what they are doing for guidance. For instance, they need to say we are projecting radio revenues from $16.5 -$17.0 million, projecting broadcast revenues from $45-$46 million and digital and mobile from $3.6-$3.8 million.. Then add in retrans of $6.5-$6.7 million. Add the totals and do the same for expense lines. One of the analysts didn't know that EVC put political into national ads. But, to me, where was state races? Another thing I harped on for over a year was how they used to report digital and mobile. They always gave "was up 42%" as an example but never dollars. Now, they say they have added digital and mobile to Pulpo numbers. So, if Pulpo did $3.8 million last quarter, how much was digital and mobile of that? Makes the Pulpo acquisition not look that good. They are also hiding the true results of radio as you mentioned. It's apparent now that digital and mobile results really sucked. A high percentage of a low base means nothing. DaninFW
Look at the graph for today. In the last 4 hours, EVC traded in a 2-3 cent range from $6.85 to $6.87 and last two hours between $6.85 and $6.86. Don't remember that ever happening. Someone is buying and putting it away. DaninFW
I have to add that I was indeed more optimistic after seeing SBGI, NXST and MEG report. They all blew away earnings even if revenue was weak at MEG. It just goes to show that we can't ever expect the idiots at EVC to perform as well as their counterparts in the sector. I admit I gave them far more credit then they deserved. However, the proof today is that LT t doesn't matter. It's all about the spectrum. The BOD's needs to fire the CEO. The CFO is the only one with any intelligence. This is an asset play not a bet on management. I don't think I have ever said otherwise on that. DaninFW
I don't know what you missed but they did make their numbers. Zack's shows they beat revenues by about a half million. Yahoo says they missed by that much. Depends on who you follow. Yahoo even has updated to show EPS expect 8 cents and actual 8 cents. It was how the press release was worded that threw everyone off. For the record, I did think they should have beaten on EPS. DaninFW
I already pointed out that these guys can't grow revenues but that inability accompanied by lack of expense controls makes it worth more dead than alive. Other investors feel likewise and are taking advantage of stock weakness. The management team is incompetent and overpaid. An activist investor, hopefully WFC, is going to find it very easy to get support. I just hope it's soon. A few more thoughts from the conference call:
1)Early in the call the CEO slipped and said radio was pacing up 11% for Q1. The CFO later said they expected to be up high single digits in radio. Sandbagging at it's best. They also said they just got a brand new client with commitments to spend $500K on radio. They also said they signed up 5 more radio stations a day or so ago. Radio is on fire. However, radio is still losing money. It's an albatross. One analyst pointed out that radio was doing about $70 million or 1/3 of revenues and that if operating expenses and corporate expenses were divided by segment instead of being one line item.....then radio was losing money. So let's get this straight. Radio is losing money. Pulpo is losing money but they plan to be $1.5 million profitable in 2015 and tv is losing revenues in the fastest growing demographic. These guys have to be embarrassed when they get their paychecks. DaninFW
Not sure I understand your question but in Q4, PBY's actually had a net gain in institutional ownership even though two of the top five sellers sold. DaninFW