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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 83 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • Reply to

    Well the set up couldn't be better

    by rossipetraglia Mar 8, 2016 10:22 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 8, 2016 1:01 PM Flag

    Not true. Accounting standards require that accruals be based on historical precedence. They can't just make up a number. If they expect or have knowledge that 2016 could be higher they could use old accruals but they should adjust in 2016 for current actual experience. They can have a slight fudge factor but otherwise they would be cooking the books. One of the reasons I expect upward beat on EPS. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Trend

    by daninfw04 Mar 7, 2016 4:17 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 8, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    Trust me, I was being very sarcastic. HOV doesn't do anything any other builder doesn't do or any other business in the U.S. They all try to capture as many sales as possible. Retailers do it by not processing refunds or issuing credits. Reality is it always mutes out if you do it consistently. To accuse them of manipulating sales when they over accrued for warranties is ludicrous. They actually had higher EPS in Q1, Q2 and Q3 with your line of thinking. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well the set up couldn't be better

    by rossipetraglia Mar 8, 2016 10:22 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 8, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    Keep in mind warranties were way below accruals and adjusted in Q4 which made the numbers. If they lower accruals for Q1 to reflect actual trend that alone could drop a few pennies to bottom line. I expect a beat on EPS and slight miss on revenues. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Trend

    by daninfw04 Mar 7, 2016 4:17 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 7, 2016 6:07 PM Flag

    I would not be surprised for a nickel profit but probably in a range of one cent loss or one cent profit. I actually think revenues could be a little light since the street is expecting a 30.2% increase in revenues which is one of the reasons I think earnings will surprise to upside. But then again Homeseek says they stole revenues from Q1 to make Q4 numbers........right? Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 7, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    Today continues the trend where HOV has now had higher highs and higher lows 5 consecutive trading days with 6 days closing higher than previous close. This stock from a low of $1.19 has gone up over 50% to a high of $1.80 today from just 6 weeks ago. Very few stocks have moved that much in such a short period of time. Should get in the $1.80's tomorrow and break above $2 Wednesday if report is good. If a great report we could be much higher in a week or so. I keep thinking we are going to have some surprises on the plus side. I know of one property mothballed for almost a decade that got a green light in Q4. It was worth about $10 million. The question was if it had been written down in value. If so we could see an extra $10 million in profit just from that as a one time benefit. If they blow away revenues and actually hit the 50%+ revenue pop above LY we could see some serious debt pay down by end of year. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 4, 2016 4:20 PM Flag

    Current trend is very encouraging. This now marks four consecutive days in a row with higher high's and higher low's and the 5th day in a row where it closed higher than previous day. Volume was above normal today and almost double the average yesterday. Hopefully we can get in the $1.80's+ before Wednesday morning and with good news should get above $2 again by end of next week. I may be nuts but I actually expect a small profit. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dan - not the same without U

    by rockysim Mar 3, 2016 8:21 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 3, 2016 9:09 PM Flag

    Jim, nine of us have taken our discussions offline and communicate with daily group e-mails. You would be welcome if you e-mail me with a contact e-mail and a brief bio. I would have to ask the other members for approval. Dan

  • Reply to

    S&P Capital HOV Target $3.00:

    by artmiranda2016 Mar 3, 2016 11:26 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 3, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    I had already posted this. But, in 2017 they are projected to earn 45 cents and at a peer average of 12 that would be $5.40 PT. At 15X it would be $6.75........DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Significant TAX Benefit Advantage:

    by artmiranda2016 Mar 1, 2016 2:08 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Homeseek twists everything. Homebuilding is very cyclical due to weather. Try pouring a foundation with three feet of snow on top.......as for businesses making money every quarter, almost every department sore chain loses money three quarters of the year and make a fortune in about 6 weeks of Q4. With the massive revenue gains expected for HOV, I suspect this will be the last year they don't make something in every quarter. I would not be surprised to see a few cents in Q1. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upgrade

    by daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 8:51 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 8:52 AM Flag

    I would add that they are projecting just a fraction of the revenue increases that HOV has predicted. There's a lot more to the article. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    Besides the Market Edge upgrade which actually said that shorts might want to start covering soon.......we also had S&P Capital IQ upgrade with a $3PT and the following to say:
    "Based on HOV's latest results, HOV's higher
    community count and our cautiously positive
    view of national home-building trends, we expect
    HOV to post a FY (Oct.) 16 revenue increase
    of 9.4% (about in-line with our 11% forecast
    for the homebuilding industry), with a 3.7%
    increase in homes delivered and a 5.6% average
    unit price increase. By way of comparison,
    in FY 15, HOV's revenues rose 3.7%, on an average
    price increase of 3.5%, and flat unit growth.
    FY 15 was impacted by HOV's earlier decision
    to boost speculative construction, a move that
    backfired when sales of these homes were
    light. This led to price discounting. HOV expects
    much less discounting going forward.
    ä HOV's homebuilding gross margin fell to 17.5%
    in FY 15, from 19.8% in FY 14, due to price discounting
    taken in Q2 15 to reduce speculative
    inventory and also due to some labor shortages.
    HOV expects 16.8% to 18.0% in FY 16, and
    we expect 17.6%, a very slight improvement
    from FY 15. HOV projects S,G,A of 9.8% to 10.2%
    in FY 16, above the 9.0% level in FY 15; we
    project 9.9%.
    ä We project EPS of $0.20 in FY 16, and $0.45 in FY
    17."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jake

    by daninfw04 Feb 19, 2016 5:01 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 25, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    Get rules-I never received anything from you. Didn't send anything.

  • Reply to

    Been Adding

    by daninfw04 Jan 28, 2016 5:41 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 24, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    I think $6.80+\- is about the best currently. Don't follow GNW but will Putin radar. Daninfw

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 24, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    Also strong in the south where Texas was a concern. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some advice for Bostonsonics

    by rskzzzz Feb 23, 2016 9:01 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 24, 2016 8:28 AM Flag

    Homeseek if that was true you would be on ignore. I only put idiots and nut cases on ignore. I disagree with most of what you say and only question your motive. The idiot bostonsonics is now on his 5th alias at least. He is the one striving for any attention. Truly smart people know this. Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Home Depot

    by daninfw04 Feb 23, 2016 6:17 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 24, 2016 8:22 AM Flag

    I just wish you really would be honest and tell us why you are really bashing HOV. You don't know the meaning of honest or direct. Daninfw

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 23, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    One of my friends just e-mailed me that the nutcase is back. This is about his fifth alias in past 2-3 years. If you do the opposite of what he says you will get rich. He even bought one stock on a Friday evening that dropped almost 89% over the weekend. Just hit his id and mine to get proof.My posts are there for all to see for almost two decades. I have had losers and been right on about 90% of my calls. Check EVC, sbgi, Bzh, Gtn, blc, rad and more than I can remember. They are all up 5-10 times what I recommended them at. Bostonsonics has just about shut gown the EVC and GTN boards by bashing all posters. Don't take my word for it. Check out the truth and put him on ignore like me. Don't let him waste your time. Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Been Adding

    by daninfw04 Jan 28, 2016 5:41 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 23, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    Just for the record, butI am currently out of EVC. Sold 100,976 shares last Friday at $7.64-$7.71 for almost $55K profit for less than four weeks. Look to start accumulating again in low 7's........Daninfw

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 23, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    There is a great article out today that tells about HD and TOL proving economy and sector are strong. It states that the labor shortages is actually proof that sector could be increasing in sales even more and bodes well for the future. I love how a short term issue is causing investors to flee the sector instead of looking long term. I started recommending HOV in the $2.30's and $2.20's and since then entire sector has been down 30%+. I have every confidence as I said several months ago that HOV will double or triple in next 12-18 months. I also think the big focus on margins is not being looked at properly. Only idiots look at percentage relative to sales. Example if margin is 30% of a billion that's $300 million margin and if you increase sales to $1.5 billion but margin drops to 29% because you have a labor shortage........who cares? You just made $435 million instead of $300 million. Percentages only impress small minds. I always look at dollars. I used to tell the managers that worked for me that you paid your bills in dollars not percentages. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Home Depot

    by daninfw04 Feb 23, 2016 6:17 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 23, 2016 6:20 AM Flag

    I am sure Homeseek will argue that HD just moved sales from Q1 to Q4. That seems to be his pat response. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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