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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 84 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • Reply to

    Dan and the old crew

    by infotraxx Apr 5, 2016 12:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 9, 2016 9:03 AM Flag

    Will send. You can delete. Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Dan and the old crew

    by infotraxx Apr 5, 2016 12:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 10:15 PM Flag

    I posted something today on Evc board. First time I have been on Meg board in about 2-3 weeks. If you want to join our group e-mail me or post your e-mail and I will contact you and then you can delete your message. I will be watching. You must spell out your e-mail or yahoo will delete......Daninfw

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 5:51 PM Flag

    I posted a message about EVC and GTN on the EVC board. FYI. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 5:49 PM Flag

    This was a group posting to 11 in our group today.EVC does have at least $2-3 in auction expectation in it. We need to remember that when trading. It looks cheap because it almost hit $10 but that was when everyone thought they were getting $500 million to a billion in spectrum money. I am beginning to suspect they will struggle to get $300 million to $500 million. At the lower amount they are a $7-8 stock and the higher amount $9-11. If they were to really surprise and come in at $800 million to a billion this could be a $13-15 stock. That's why I don't mind buying at $7+/-. I see very little if any downside. This is the poorest managed company in sector. They had an average FCF of $65 million 2 years ago and if they had not received $10 million from tower relo's they would not even be close now. They are only keeping 40% of their retrans and can't close a new contract with Univision after almost a year while sector appears to be getting about 45%. EVC pays the most reverse comp of any broadcaster and Univision is starting to fall to Telemundo. . Then, they are 1/3+ radio not broadcast that is marginally profitable if that. They also overpaid over $200 million for their radio assets. Do we trust them to invest the spectrum money? And, they have paid $20 million with earn outs for Pulpo which is barely making $1 million a year.......5% return and I even question that since they rolled their other digital businesses in it so you can't truly track.
    You mentioned all the other sector stocks were undervalued. I agree. GTN, for instance, which I like the best compared to EVC is a steal. GTN sells for only 1.41X sales while EVC is 2.46X sales which includes radio. EVC is $7.13 and GTN $11.64 today. On that basis, GTN would be $20.30........
    On an earnings basis since I don't have FCF close at hand.........EVC is expected to earn just 37 cents in 2016 and GTN $1.92. On that basis, GTN should be $60.40.......in 2017 GTN will earn only 98 cents while EVC earns 31 cents. E

  • Reply to

    DaninFW new analysis/update?

    by tronolonemichael Apr 7, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 7, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    If they hit their numbers Imvho we should see $3-4 without a buyout. $4-5 with buyout. If they can remain independent and chop off $500+ million in debt easily above $5. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DaninFW new analysis/update?

    by tronolonemichael Apr 7, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 7, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    I have increased to 700,000 shares and using 100,000 shares +\- as a trading tool to lower my average cost. Now down to average of $1.89 a share. I have been selling 100,000+\- shares when HOV pops 8-12 cents and buying back when it falls. Will always have at least 600,000 when it pops. I don't think anyone would loan these idiots money for a management buyout. I still think they will get bought out in next 6-18 months. Being #6 makes them a strong candidate for a builder that knows how to make money and wants to shield $2 billion from taxes. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DaninFW new analysis/update?

    by tronolonemichael Apr 7, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 7, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    A group of 11 of us from mainly the broadcast bulletin boards have pretty much gone private e-mail. Many of us also hold HOV. Too many nutcases so I don't post much any more. Still holding right at 700,000 HOV. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 2:18 PM Flag

    No question the time is past for Ara to go. The stock would jump 10-30% on the announcement. The last conference call really got me. He kept using this one word about 6-12 times. I think it was "granularity". He sounded like a pompous #$%$. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    The #1 controllable expense in virtually any business is payroll. Very little else you can control to much of a degree once you get down to it. I worked for a company that was bought out by a competitor. They got rid of all the secretary's and administrative assistants except for one to share with 10-12 execs. We answered our own phones. This is a $9 Billion dollar company where the President still answers his own phone. I retired from this company and the stock averaged a 27% annual increase for almost 15 years before I retired. There is fat in any organization. I also agree they need to eliminate some of those 6 figure jobs. One of them is equal to 3-4 others. I remember a few years ago when Ara rented a bunch of space for millions in downtown Manhattan because he thought HOV needed to have a presence in the financial community. Now they won't loan him money........Homeseek, I often agree with you, I just don't know your agenda. HOV has always been poorly managed. History says they either change or get changed. That's what I bet on. The recent swift change in direction was orchestrated for an undisclosed purpose or reason. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    I was looking at their total of full time employees relative to the industry. PHM has a little over double the FT employees but almost three times the sales. BZH has just under half the employees but over 75% of the sales of HOV. Looks to me like HOV is very top heavy which could be their profitability issues. Looks like they need to reduce headcount in line with competition. That appears to be major issue instead of pulling out of a few markets to raise cash. The six communities they are selling at a loss of $10.6 million written off or impaired last quarter had pre-impairment book value of just $34.4 million and will only produce $23.8 million in cash in Q1. They said the other properties being sold would not need impairment but we have no idea how much cash will be generated. I was convinced the first plan would have worked but it was a 3-5 year plan. The current plan looks to be just thought up on a whim but in reality I suspect the bankers and lenders said they wanted to see results now. HOV keeps having a history of looking like they are turning the corner and then more impairments. IMVHO if they had also written off several million in severance payments last quarter and said they were reducing headcount and expenses, the stock may have really popped. They cannot keep current headcount going into 2017 and beyond with revenues flat lining or dropping unless they really make up margins somewhere else. HOV management is not making the real tough decisions. The analysts are not helping either. They blast the stock and then raise revenue and EPS expect and then next quarter when they miss by a hair the stock gets hammered again. The analysts hated last quarter yet raised revenue expect from $620 million to $649 million and then EPS expect from 0 cents to 2 cents. Now if they beat the previous $620 million expect but come in a few million under $649 the stock will get hammered, If they make a cent but not 2 cents it gets hammered but it beat the 0 cents. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Frank

    by daninfw04 Mar 16, 2016 8:28 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 17, 2016 8:53 AM Flag

    I sent you a text not e-mail. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 16, 2016 8:28 PM Flag

    Did you get my text reply? Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Rockysim

    by daninfw04 Mar 14, 2016 2:44 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 15, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    No problem. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Rockysim

    by daninfw04 Mar 14, 2016 2:44 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 15, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    As I told frank, I really don't know how but about a dozen people have sent me e-mails from Yahoo. If you post your e-mail I will be looking for it and send you a quick response. You can then delete your post or figure out how to send it privately. Sorry. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    no bounce here

    by jrkkek Mar 15, 2016 10:18 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 15, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    HOV will recover when investors figure out what's going on. We now have a quarter or two at least before results of the new plan are apparent. Management should have done a much better job at presenting the numbers. Headlines which were wrong crashed this stock. It appears HOV management has shared info with analysts but not investors. They raised revenue expect from $620 million to $627 million last Friday and today it popped to $643.74 million now for Q2. The highest expect is for $699.92 million. One analyst still has a $612 million expect and has not changed to date. If he raises like the other three.........kind of funny that the stock gets hammered but the analysts are raising expect for Q2. Think about it. They only missed by 5 million in Q1 and sales were up an incredible 29% and now they have raised Q2 by $27+ million. It looks like at least three analysts expect them to start generating a lot more cash. I'm still trying to get my last 100,000 at $1.39 now.........If management had any brains they would call a special meeting for analysts and investors to present their new plan instead of waiting till next quarter's report. Investors will have no confidence in this company till they see a plan and stock won't move much upward till results from the plan are seen. If you believe they can pull it off this stock will be a big winner. I also believe all this is for a reason more than it appears. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dan - not the same without U

    by rockysim Mar 3, 2016 8:21 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 14, 2016 1:52 PM Flag

    I will wait for you to post and send you an e-mail ASAP. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Dan - not the same without U

    by rockysim Mar 3, 2016 8:21 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 14, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    I don't want to post my e-mail online for obvious reasons. I have had about 12 people send me e-mails via yahoo. Have not done it myself. Maybe one of them can share how. Don't give up. Mine is not a yahoo e-mail address. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Dan - not the same without U

    by rockysim Mar 3, 2016 8:21 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 14, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    You posted in December 2014 for first time to me. Just send me an e-mail and I will contact you. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 11, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    The consensus estimates changed this morning. I don't know how many changed but I suspect we will see more changes in next few days. IMVHO they should have waited for the new numbers Ara promised to send them Perhaps he did but we won't see. They actually RAISED revenue estimates for Q2 from $620 million to $627 million. They also raised EPS expect from 0 cents to 2 cents. They did lower FY 2016 from 23 to 21 cents and FY 17 from 44 to 37 cents. They did lower revenue growth from 16% in 2017 to just 4.5% which is in line with what Ara said. I also now believe it was the banks that put a stop to the growth plan which was being funded by land banking. We all know banks want two dollars worth of assets to loan you a dollar. They were getting concerned as well as the unsecured bond holders. They didn't want to wait 2-4 years to see balance sheet improved. I am prepared to hold as when they start reporting earnings the stock price will move north. Everyone is now concerned about the quick and abrupt and apparently not well planned change in strategy. Ara does not have the confidence of Wall Street. It's time to show some progress or he will be gone. IMVHO HOV has been and will be a great trading stock. For those not willing to hold for a double or triple it's a great buy at these prices. You can almost bet on a 10-20% move every few weeks. This thing trades at 5% change per day most days. Anything below $1.40 is a steal. I am now at 600,000 shares and may trade on big bounces and buy back. I do intend to hold at least 400,000 shares at all times in the event of the unexpected. I do think when they get the debt paid down and get NOL's reversed on the balance sheet this will be a takeover target. That's not a rumor but logic. Any company has to grow or die. Earnings alone is not enough. We are talking 6-12 months down the road if I had to guess not anytime soon. I laughed yesterday when Zack's went from hold to buy on HOV. Stocks usually do the opposite of Zack's. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 10, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    It has puzzled me why the abrupt change in company direction and not being prepared to present it. The more I think about it I believe they are getting it ready to sell. I think management has given up. The biggest asset is their NOL's and they need to write it back on the balance sheet and get book value just under $4. Growing revenues and not consistent profit will not allow that. Now, after 2-3 quarters of profitability they would be allowed by accounting standards to do that. Cleaning up the balance sheet and making NOL's a real asset on the books should increase their credit worthiness. They have been talking about this for last 2 + years and no changes. This should do the trick. Again, something is up. Heads are on the chopping block. This company's balance sheet getting cleaned up for more than just one reason IMVHO. Not sure what. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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