Wish I could buy more of the USCXW's in the 3's.........bought last blocks at 8,611 for $3.24 and last 10,000 for $3.55........not counting about 20,000 I got from bankruptcy court.....counting about half of those as USCRW's......may well make well in the six figures on this investment if we can break $30+......I suspect I will be kicking myself for not paying current price for the USCXW's in a few months. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yesterday, Cramer picked Martin Marietta as one of his top picks.......mainly because of their acquisition of TXI. They report this coming Monday. Should be interesting to see how they report TXI results for Q2 which they just acquired. they operate in top markets like USCR. Will give good glimpse of what to expect. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The low volume works both ways. We have had some "big" sellers.....a few hundred thousand shares almost daily that is getting dumped but EVC seems to be holding. It appears that all the really big dumpers are gone. If we can get any strong interest this stock could pop if volume ramped up because there are no heavy sellers left. It's almost like watching paint dry and grass grow. I too am about ready to move on. Lot's of trading on other stocks for me lately. I almost forget about EVC.I still think we will see $7-8 before year end. I may start trading soon and lowering my position on any strong moves above $6. DaninFW
Boy is this board dead. Last week CEMEX reported earnings. First profit since 2009. They are international so you have to break out operating areas. United States was incredible. Pricing power is returning to sector. Their revenue was up 10% but EBITDA was up 49% from $80 million to $119 million. Pricing is giving sector incredible leverage. I look for USCR to blow those numbers away as they operate in the top markets. I still think we will see $30+ in 2014. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I realize that. The other two parts are very informative. It tells about how for 10 quarters EVC has exceeded the national average by a wide margin on gains in advertising for both tv and radio. How they should double earnings this year. How not only political will exceed expect this year but also next year with insurance advertising. Tells how Hispanics is where advertisers are shifting budgets. Goes into detail about the JSA's and how the 15% should not effect them one iota. Also, says EVC represents 25% of the total audience of Univision. Unlike what truth.monger used to say......Univision owes a lot to EVC. Just a few tidbits. Great analysis. Probably the best I've seen. DaninFW
"Looking longer term, domestic ad spending is estimated to rise by 4%-5% annually. We figure Entravision will outpace its English-language peers, however, because of the rapidly growing Hispanic population in the United States. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that between now and 2050, the Hispanic population will grow six times as fast as the non-Hispanic population and will reach 133 million, or 30% of the United States (from 17% today). Additionally, the unemployment rate among Hispanic workers has dropped significantly in the past year. We think advertisers have responded to these trends and adjusted ad budgets in favor of Spanish-language ad placement. Indeed, the company appears to be gaining market share. In the past six quarters, EVC's core advertising business outpaced English-language broadcasting peers. The TV segment averaged 8% year-over-year growth, while radio rose 2%; this compares to respective industry rates of 2% and 1%.
The balance sheet is not as bad as it looks. True, at the end of 2013, long-term debt was 74% of total capital, but that is about average for the broadcasting group. With its strong cash flow, though, we think the company will pay off debt (although nothing is actually due till 2020), thereby reducing the debt ratio to about 25% by 2018. By our measure, EVC likely will still have enough excess cash to take advantage of acquisition opportunities and fund marketing efforts to pursue high-growth opportunities.
EVC’s stock price has fallen significantly in recent weeks. As we see it, much of the selling pressure came from concerns regarding a recent FCC ruling. The commission has made it more difficult for a TV station to sell ad time on behalf of another in the same market. So-called joint sales agreements (or JSAs) are for some broadcasters a major source of revenue. We argue that this is not so much the case for EVC. The FCC’s new rule limits revenue derived from JSAs to 15%. Revenue from EVC’s JSAs will not likely exceed that
This is a Value Line report from 5-31-14 but still relevant and quite interesting:
Entravision Communications (EVC), founded in 1996, is the largest publicly-traded broadcaster of Spanish-language content in the United States and primarily operates in the southwestern and southeastern regions of the country. EVC owns and operates 58 television stations in 24 markets – 20 of these are in the top-50 Hispanic markets. The majority of these stations are affiliated with industry giant Univision Communications (privately held). EVC accounts for 25% of Univision’s viewing audience and has an 18% share of the Hispanic market. The broadcaster also runs 49 independent radio stations, 38 of which are FM and 11 AM, in 17 markets. Revenue generated from local and national advertisements accounts for more than 90% of the top line. The remainder is from retransmission fees from cable and satellite operators.
Divestitures have allowed the company to focus purely on broadcasting. In 2003, it sold El Diario/La Prensa, the oldest Spanish-language daily newspaper in the United States, for $18.0 million. In 2008, EVC sold the outdoor advertising segment, which consisted of 10,600 advertising billboards in New York and Los Angeles, for $100 million to Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR).
The largest source of revenue for broadcasters is advertisements. The U.S. ad market will likely approach $160 billion this year, with TV accounting for about 42% and radio, 7%; online and cable TV network advertising, and magazines and newspapers classifieds comprise the rest. U.S. broadcasting ad revenue is mostly affected by the political election cycle, which occurs in even-numbered years."
I actually bought 60,000 SD over a few days at average cost of $6.71......was about to buy more when I saw Cooperman was speaking today last night. Knew it would pop. I almost bought more yesterday in low $6.40's and wish I had but oil still looked weak yesterday. Oil up strong today. I saw your post on SD message board and nobody responded. I plan to hold for at least $7 a share at present. i"ve never lost on SD either. Good luck. DaninFW
I hope you know me better than that after years of posting. I have ALWAYS bashed PBY whether I was buying or selling. It's the constant rumors of buyouts since early 1990's, the every once in a while glimmer of hope when they beat expect, the $9-10 value of real estate per share, etc. that causes it to move up and down in a narrow channel. If you look back 3, 4, 5 years ago, we are in the same price channel as then.......$9-11......nothing ever changes.......until they replace management and get some people on the BOD's that don't use it as their personal ATM machine. An absolutely great trading stock. I'll get in again in high 9's perhaps $10 and change for trading not investing. Not to mention their business model is broken and current spoke concept just cannibalizes existing stores which puts constant pressure on comps. They always favor the service side and let retail drown. I have given many scenarios to save this company. One would simply be to split company into a retail side and service side and sell surplus real estate. They could also divide up their behemoth locations into two businesses and lease or sale surplus space. Their retail stores are almost twice the size they need to be. They are cavernous. I could go on but nothing ever changes. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell
You need to read the recent article from yesterday. The WSJ today had major article on what Pulpo and Luminar do....and is the thing of the future. The article yesterday points out over a half million people on Facebook and growing like Todobebe which I too at one time thought was stupid. I have fonder thoughts now. Stock is not moving up like sector for all the reasons I've said and you've said......but it will. The Aereo deal is once again a concern You said it wasn't a big deal last time and you were also wrong. Downside of $5+/- even in big correction. You said $1 which is really something that destroys your credibility to say it will sell for what it has in free cash flow for one year. You didn't post for 25 days when stock was going up almost every day and now post on just the days it drops a little. Quite funny. DaninFW
The overall market is my main concern. The latest Aereo move to now be classified as a cable company I think has the sector in jitters. There is always something. I think we will see more M&A soon. At present IMVHO we could see EVC at $5.50 or $6.50.......probably even odds. I still think $7-8 in next 60-180 days. Might well be some great trading with daily 10-20-30 cent moves. DaninFW
I've posted on this several times. Management screwed up the conference call and tried to correct in an investor meeting a few days later. Analysts misunderstood their projections and lowered them. They will actually blow away expect. Read my old posts after last report. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What a scam artist you are. Not worth wasting my breath on. You have yet to deny that you have multiple id's which you indeed do have. I don't. You also have never said why you own this stock but tell everyone else to sell. You have yet to tell us who is paying you to trash this stock after paying you to pump it for over a year. You have yet to reveal your true motives. What a joke you are. Still have cost basis of $5.791 for 120,000 shares. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think EVC will just be the laggard of the pack until we see a catalyst. Still has the weakest management in the sector. For a merger, the class b shares have to approve and Univision has to approve. I believe we will see some sort of merger of equals with SBSA a likely combination. The synergies would be great. The new CEO of the much smaller SBSA just got a 4+ year contract for $1.75 million. The preferred stockholders because they didn't get paid off got to elect two to the BOD's. I believe something will happen with SBSA whether it is EVC or not. I see 20-30%+ upside for GTN and EVC my favorites. DaninFW
I believe everything is relative. Right now equities are better than bonds. Rates are already starting to move up over last 2 days. If rates go up a few percent than mortgage rates jump, etc. Housing starts to fall. Market looks ahead 6 months, etc. etc. It's always a cycle. Whether it starts now or later nobody knows. Many experts believe the next 10 years will only return 1.8% per annum. I have seen a few predict 4%. It's almost impossible to have double digit gains when market is selling for multiples of 25+........just common sense and basic math. It's just a bubble IMVHO. DaninFW
I would add that I wouldn't be surprised if the overall market turned positive before the close. It makes for great trading. I am trading SD and HOV today. DaninFW
Again, I have been 80-85% cash for almost 2 years now. Sounds strange but I have probably made more money being 80-85% cash than if I had been fully invested. The 15-20% I do invest I tend to take more chances and because market has continued to go up my returns have been phenomenal.....about double or triple what I would have done if I had diversified. As I have posted for years now......the broadcast sector tends to go up or down double or triple the overall market. If market is up 1% they tend to be up 2-3% and if market is down 1% they tend to be down 2-3%. The overall market multiples are at about 25. The only time they have been that high has been 1929, 2000 and 2007. You know what happened those years. In 2007-2009 you would have lost everything you had made in the market since 1995. The market will correct or crash again. Whether it is now or in the near future......I am not that smart.......but it will happen. I have no problem holding EVC. DaninFW
Today may well be the start of what I have been expecting for over a year........the start of a massive 15-20% market correction. However, it could well be a big buying opportunity. The FED minutes yesterday and concern for Q2 market earnings is creating a big downward spike. Europe and especially Portugal are big concerns again. Today will well be a big buying opportunity......or you may wish you had waited. Will be very interesting. I am holding for now. DaninFW