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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 80 posts  |  Last Activity: May 29, 2016 10:29 AM Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • The presentation yesterday was much more informative than the one a few days before. Some bullets:
    1) Ara said he looked forward to update investors on their progress in a few weeks.
    2) Ara said hard part was behind them and he felt they would easily and comfortably meet their debt repayments.
    3) They paid off the 5-15-16 bonds on Monday.
    4) Only about $200 million left to pay in next two years and very little due after that till 2020.
    5) Expects to get debt ratio down to 50% within a few years and down to 30% within a few more years.
    6) Expect to reverse NOL's in 2016 or 2017 at the latest. May do in two parts but hope to do in one if earnings are substantive.
    7) Future land banking will be different. They plan to find locations and then go to land bankers to let them buy the land and then they will take out options. No debt incurred on balance sheet.
    8) More and more land bankers are coming to the party. Plenty of opportunity.
    9) Are using more of the non-recourse loans as well which are better rates.
    This company is not going bankrupt. It may be 12-24 months before we see the numbers we would like to see but no doubt in my mind this will be a $3-5 stock in 12-24 months. And yes, about a year later than I first thought. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 5:49 PM Flag

    This was a group posting to 11 in our group today.EVC does have at least $2-3 in auction expectation in it. We need to remember that when trading. It looks cheap because it almost hit $10 but that was when everyone thought they were getting $500 million to a billion in spectrum money. I am beginning to suspect they will struggle to get $300 million to $500 million. At the lower amount they are a $7-8 stock and the higher amount $9-11. If they were to really surprise and come in at $800 million to a billion this could be a $13-15 stock. That's why I don't mind buying at $7+/-. I see very little if any downside. This is the poorest managed company in sector. They had an average FCF of $65 million 2 years ago and if they had not received $10 million from tower relo's they would not even be close now. They are only keeping 40% of their retrans and can't close a new contract with Univision after almost a year while sector appears to be getting about 45%. EVC pays the most reverse comp of any broadcaster and Univision is starting to fall to Telemundo. . Then, they are 1/3+ radio not broadcast that is marginally profitable if that. They also overpaid over $200 million for their radio assets. Do we trust them to invest the spectrum money? And, they have paid $20 million with earn outs for Pulpo which is barely making $1 million a year.......5% return and I even question that since they rolled their other digital businesses in it so you can't truly track.
    You mentioned all the other sector stocks were undervalued. I agree. GTN, for instance, which I like the best compared to EVC is a steal. GTN sells for only 1.41X sales while EVC is 2.46X sales which includes radio. EVC is $7.13 and GTN $11.64 today. On that basis, GTN would be $20.30........
    On an earnings basis since I don't have FCF close at hand.........EVC is expected to earn just 37 cents in 2016 and GTN $1.92. On that basis, GTN should be $60.40.......in 2017 GTN will earn only 98 cents while EVC earns 31 cents. E

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 26, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Pending Homes Sales just out. Up 5.1% which is the highest in over a decade.......can we handle any more good news? If Management doesn't let us down in a few weeks we could easily be in the 2's again finally......DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    S&P Capital HOV Target $3.00:

    by artmiranda2016 Mar 3, 2016 11:26 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 3, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    I had already posted this. But, in 2017 they are projected to earn 45 cents and at a peer average of 12 that would be $5.40 PT. At 15X it would be $6.75........DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    I was looking at their total of full time employees relative to the industry. PHM has a little over double the FT employees but almost three times the sales. BZH has just under half the employees but over 75% of the sales of HOV. Looks to me like HOV is very top heavy which could be their profitability issues. Looks like they need to reduce headcount in line with competition. That appears to be major issue instead of pulling out of a few markets to raise cash. The six communities they are selling at a loss of $10.6 million written off or impaired last quarter had pre-impairment book value of just $34.4 million and will only produce $23.8 million in cash in Q1. They said the other properties being sold would not need impairment but we have no idea how much cash will be generated. I was convinced the first plan would have worked but it was a 3-5 year plan. The current plan looks to be just thought up on a whim but in reality I suspect the bankers and lenders said they wanted to see results now. HOV keeps having a history of looking like they are turning the corner and then more impairments. IMVHO if they had also written off several million in severance payments last quarter and said they were reducing headcount and expenses, the stock may have really popped. They cannot keep current headcount going into 2017 and beyond with revenues flat lining or dropping unless they really make up margins somewhere else. HOV management is not making the real tough decisions. The analysts are not helping either. They blast the stock and then raise revenue and EPS expect and then next quarter when they miss by a hair the stock gets hammered again. The analysts hated last quarter yet raised revenue expect from $620 million to $649 million and then EPS expect from 0 cents to 2 cents. Now if they beat the previous $620 million expect but come in a few million under $649 the stock will get hammered, If they make a cent but not 2 cents it gets hammered but it beat the 0 cents. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    Besides the Market Edge upgrade which actually said that shorts might want to start covering soon.......we also had S&P Capital IQ upgrade with a $3PT and the following to say:
    "Based on HOV's latest results, HOV's higher
    community count and our cautiously positive
    view of national home-building trends, we expect
    HOV to post a FY (Oct.) 16 revenue increase
    of 9.4% (about in-line with our 11% forecast
    for the homebuilding industry), with a 3.7%
    increase in homes delivered and a 5.6% average
    unit price increase. By way of comparison,
    in FY 15, HOV's revenues rose 3.7%, on an average
    price increase of 3.5%, and flat unit growth.
    FY 15 was impacted by HOV's earlier decision
    to boost speculative construction, a move that
    backfired when sales of these homes were
    light. This led to price discounting. HOV expects
    much less discounting going forward.
    ä HOV's homebuilding gross margin fell to 17.5%
    in FY 15, from 19.8% in FY 14, due to price discounting
    taken in Q2 15 to reduce speculative
    inventory and also due to some labor shortages.
    HOV expects 16.8% to 18.0% in FY 16, and
    we expect 17.6%, a very slight improvement
    from FY 15. HOV projects S,G,A of 9.8% to 10.2%
    in FY 16, above the 9.0% level in FY 15; we
    project 9.9%.
    ä We project EPS of $0.20 in FY 16, and $0.45 in FY
    17."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 11, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    The consensus estimates changed this morning. I don't know how many changed but I suspect we will see more changes in next few days. IMVHO they should have waited for the new numbers Ara promised to send them Perhaps he did but we won't see. They actually RAISED revenue estimates for Q2 from $620 million to $627 million. They also raised EPS expect from 0 cents to 2 cents. They did lower FY 2016 from 23 to 21 cents and FY 17 from 44 to 37 cents. They did lower revenue growth from 16% in 2017 to just 4.5% which is in line with what Ara said. I also now believe it was the banks that put a stop to the growth plan which was being funded by land banking. We all know banks want two dollars worth of assets to loan you a dollar. They were getting concerned as well as the unsecured bond holders. They didn't want to wait 2-4 years to see balance sheet improved. I am prepared to hold as when they start reporting earnings the stock price will move north. Everyone is now concerned about the quick and abrupt and apparently not well planned change in strategy. Ara does not have the confidence of Wall Street. It's time to show some progress or he will be gone. IMVHO HOV has been and will be a great trading stock. For those not willing to hold for a double or triple it's a great buy at these prices. You can almost bet on a 10-20% move every few weeks. This thing trades at 5% change per day most days. Anything below $1.40 is a steal. I am now at 600,000 shares and may trade on big bounces and buy back. I do intend to hold at least 400,000 shares at all times in the event of the unexpected. I do think when they get the debt paid down and get NOL's reversed on the balance sheet this will be a takeover target. That's not a rumor but logic. Any company has to grow or die. Earnings alone is not enough. We are talking 6-12 months down the road if I had to guess not anytime soon. I laughed yesterday when Zack's went from hold to buy on HOV. Stocks usually do the opposite of Zack's. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 19, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Typical that many don't read past the headlines. News today on permits was actually very good. After hitting an 8 year high last month they were only down 1.2% in March..........almost entire sector up on news once it was digested and interpreted by the smart money. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 28, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    Guys and gals, I am a believer in HOV but we need to be aware that the analysts have set HOV up again to get blasted on Thursday. After Q1 report they blasted the stock but then raised revenue estimates from $620 million to 643 million which is a 37.1% increase in revenues from Q2 last year. Remember they had a huge revenue increase in Q1 but just happened to miss by a million or so and they killed the stock. The analysts were so concerned for the future of HOV they raised the EPS estimate from break even to 2 cents......so remember we could actually come in with a 36% revenue increase and make 1 cent and the stock could get clobbered. I also just noticed that they lowered the EPS expect for 2016 by one cent and for 2017 by 2 cents. Makes a lot of sense right? Raising quarterly numbers but lowering FY numbers. What kind of math is that? I started buying this in the $2.30's and loaded up around $1.39 and finally in the black again. Still holding 700,000 shares but am concerned about how the analysts appear to be killing the stock price. If HOV can beat those astronomical revenue numbers and makeable EPS numbers HOV could pop 50 cents especially if cash on hand is growing and they present a credible debt repayment plan. I do believe the other real concern is future revenue growth. I suspect what they unveiled at the last presentation about letting other companies buy their land and option it out to them may allow them to pay down debt and still grow the company. Should be the most important call and report yet. I plan to hold all shares going into call but antsy. What happens if they earn 4 cents and beat EPS by 2 cents and then only have 36% revenue increase? It's a crazy world. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 10, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    HOV has been very frustrating to say the least. The analysts hammered them today on numbers relative to how much the four markets would bring to the balance sheet when fully exited and they couldn't give a number. Ara said he would get that number to them but the average investor won't get the info. To me this could generate hundreds of millions of cash if not at least a $100 million. One market alone had 7 communities and the other 5 communities. He did make a statement that the markets being exited were markets they struggled in hinting lower margins. Strategy should be a boost to margins. They said they expected profits in 2017 to be slightly above 2016's. Analysts are forgetting HOV is projected to increase revenues 31% in 2016 and 16% in 2017. They won't hit those revenue #'s in 2017 now which IMVHO concerned the analysts. It scares analysts when management talks about cutting back. I have been on ground floor of many companies when they are growing and it takes a different mind set as well as resources to do that. They will be laying off a lot of employees just in these four markets alone. In other markets they will reduce all headcount that was going to be used to grow revenues in 2017 and beyond. Just expenses related to infrastructure alone could add hundreds of millions in debt pay down next 1-2 years. I bought another 50,000 today at $1.52 and another 50,000 at $1.49. I have been doing some horse trading with the recent bounces but as of today back to 600,000 shares. By cutting back on future growth think of all the money they will save in expenses. We should see some benefit in Q2 but really start seeing in Q3 and Q4. You could tell the analysts didn't like the call. They also were more concerned about unsecured bond holders instead of us equity holders. HOV still has over $600 million they can do in land banks. But, I suspect the announcement today has been known by street for some time. continued.....DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 2:18 PM Flag

    No question the time is past for Ara to go. The stock would jump 10-30% on the announcement. The last conference call really got me. He kept using this one word about 6-12 times. I think it was "granularity". He sounded like a pompous #$%$. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 18, 2016 2:15 PM Flag

    HOV finally popped today when VP of HR made an open market purchase last Friday at $1.74 a share for 14,537 shares. Not that much but he now owns 111,688 shares. HOV closed higher than the previous day for 8 straight days until Friday where it did claw back at the end of the day. Looks like trend is back now. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally

    by daninfw04 Apr 18, 2016 2:15 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 18, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    I don't believe in jinx's. The interesting thing today was the bid/ask was almost $1.72-$1.73 the last 3+ hours of trading with about 1/3 the shares bidding as the number of shares selling. This cannot be "real" for that long of time unless being manipulated to allow longs to get in cheap. If size numbers were correct it should have fallen several cents at least. Every time it hit $1.71-$1.72 there would be 4-6 times the number of buyers and sellers and then it would pop in a minute or two back to $1.72-$1.73..........HOV is so easy to control with this cheap price but as news comes out it will be harder to hold back. The insider purchase by the VP of HR is also worthy of note because it was 15 days before end of the quarter. Most companies do not permit any insider purchases from quarter end till 3 days after quarterly report. This guy has seen the sales for all but two weeks of the quarter and most companies prepare monthly financials so he knows how they did in February and March financially. My only issue is not really a big investment.......just barely over $25K. But, since he now has 111,000+ shares he also didn't sell any shares. I think that is a big positive. When this thing pops above $1.73 we should run to $1.85 fairly quickly. The current resistance is $1.73. Next resistance isn't till $1.85 +/- 6 cents. We have existing homes and housing starts this week. I expect weak existing homes which should lead to strong housing starts which should give us the push we need. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 9, 2016 10:38 AM Flag

    It's a shame that most investors don't know how to read a financial report. They look at the top and bottom line and react. I honestly am surprised they just missed their revenues. How many homebuilders are increasing sales 30%? By my calculations they actually lost $1.5 million and have 130+ million shares outstanding which is just over a cent loss. I actually called this one 100%. This board has more than it's fair share of nutcases. I was just told that the idiot bostonsonics is back again. I have him on ignore. Hit his name and go back last 6-12 months to see his track record. He has been wrong 100% of the time. Best contrarian indicator you will ever find. Don't take my word for it. Check it out. This idiot lost 80% of his investment on one stock just over the weekend. You know HOV is a steal if he's bashing it. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nothing comes easy

    by olivercromwell258 Mar 9, 2016 11:04 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 9, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    I usually focus on stocks $1-5 and a few from $5-10 and have made a small fortune doing so. HOV is the first in over 40 years of investing that I have seen that is so manipulated because it is so cheap. I have thought other stocks were manipulated but they don't hold a candle to HOV. The dynamics are such that traders are making a fortune shorting and covering. Wash, rinse and repeat. They drive it up and drive it down. HOV continues to report positive progress yet stock price languishes. They can only hold it back so long. I am glad they reported today they were going to address liquidity concerns whereas before they said it would get addressed 2-3 years down the road. The $2 billion is a real concern. Nice that they paid off so much debt but their current cash on hand of just $152 million should be higher. They still have over $600 million available from land banking per today's report. The sales numbers were awesome. SG&A and interest expense both way down. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    no bounce here

    by jrkkek Mar 15, 2016 10:18 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 15, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    HOV will recover when investors figure out what's going on. We now have a quarter or two at least before results of the new plan are apparent. Management should have done a much better job at presenting the numbers. Headlines which were wrong crashed this stock. It appears HOV management has shared info with analysts but not investors. They raised revenue expect from $620 million to $627 million last Friday and today it popped to $643.74 million now for Q2. The highest expect is for $699.92 million. One analyst still has a $612 million expect and has not changed to date. If he raises like the other three.........kind of funny that the stock gets hammered but the analysts are raising expect for Q2. Think about it. They only missed by 5 million in Q1 and sales were up an incredible 29% and now they have raised Q2 by $27+ million. It looks like at least three analysts expect them to start generating a lot more cash. I'm still trying to get my last 100,000 at $1.39 now.........If management had any brains they would call a special meeting for analysts and investors to present their new plan instead of waiting till next quarter's report. Investors will have no confidence in this company till they see a plan and stock won't move much upward till results from the plan are seen. If you believe they can pull it off this stock will be a big winner. I also believe all this is for a reason more than it appears. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dan and the old crew

    by infotraxx Apr 5, 2016 12:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 10:15 PM Flag

    I posted something today on Evc board. First time I have been on Meg board in about 2-3 weeks. If you want to join our group e-mail me or post your e-mail and I will contact you and then you can delete your message. I will be watching. You must spell out your e-mail or yahoo will delete......Daninfw

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 10, 2016 7:59 PM Flag

    You recently posted that you had bought HOV. You have been a bear on HOV for around 8years+/-. Why the change? You and I have often disagreed but I know you have great insight into this sector having been an executive in it. Thoughts? DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    The #1 controllable expense in virtually any business is payroll. Very little else you can control to much of a degree once you get down to it. I worked for a company that was bought out by a competitor. They got rid of all the secretary's and administrative assistants except for one to share with 10-12 execs. We answered our own phones. This is a $9 Billion dollar company where the President still answers his own phone. I retired from this company and the stock averaged a 27% annual increase for almost 15 years before I retired. There is fat in any organization. I also agree they need to eliminate some of those 6 figure jobs. One of them is equal to 3-4 others. I remember a few years ago when Ara rented a bunch of space for millions in downtown Manhattan because he thought HOV needed to have a presence in the financial community. Now they won't loan him money........Homeseek, I often agree with you, I just don't know your agenda. HOV has always been poorly managed. History says they either change or get changed. That's what I bet on. The recent swift change in direction was orchestrated for an undisclosed purpose or reason. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 5, 2016 5:41 PM Flag

    CEO said he expected digital and mobile to be 10% of revenues in 2016 and 20% in 2017 with organic and acquisition growth. That means they will have to buy a company at double the size of Pulpo to do that which means $40 million+ in cash. Looks like they are already spending your spectrum money. Overpaying again. For those of you not around years ago.......current management overpaid by over $200 million for their current radio assets. Why would we trust them with the spectrum money? Real concerns. DaninFW

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