Again, these are the dynamics that make PBY a great trading stock. The $720 million in real estate is the age old reason for constant buy out rumors. That's $14 a share but then you get a money losing business. If they sell the real estate they then lose the tax write offs and company then crashes on cash flow. Real estate isn't worth as much if company is losing money. Buyers that will lease back to PBY's have to worry if they will get paid. Now, PBY's has announced they are going to close a bunch more stores. Those that bought the real estate in the past now worry if they are going to be left holding the bag.......it's a vicious cycle. Don't forget that someone will have to pay taxes on $14 per share in gains. That makes it $10-11 per share at best. This company is worth $9-11 in current shape. DaninFW
I have to add that your hero, Gabelli, on CNBC yesterday recommended Autozone, O'Reilly and Genuine Parts........not Pep Boys. He may be rethinking his bad investment. Be careful of the idols you worship.
Only a snot nosed kid would attack someone else when they are wrong. Nuff said. You would have made money instead of sitting still. All the dynamics I keep mentioning drive this stock up and down. It has been a trading stock for 20 years not an investment stock. Watch and learn junior, DaninFW
"CBS chief Les Moonves bows to no one in his love for broadcast TV. But after seeing the high prices the FCC has commanded in its current wireless spectrum auction, even he is willing to consider offering TV station airwaves for a share in the return. “We’re not saying it’s an absolute ‘no’ when you see those numbers,” he told investors today at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in NYC. “It looks attractive to a CW duopoly” and independent stations that CBS owns. “We can have our cake and eat it too, and make a lot of money.”
We don't know the max that current buyer is willing to pay to take x amount position. If they want to take enough to raise a ruckus with the board they need at least 10-15% IMVHO and at least a few big holders to side with them. Sure, they can buy 5% and make a filing and say they are writing a letter to management, etc. but 5% won't give them anything close to the votes they need with the super voting b shares held by 3 insiders. Unless it was already a large holder with a large position, the current big buyer by my estimates is only at 2-3% of shares max. They will easily run this to $8 if they want 5% or more. They have already moved the stock $2+/- just buying 2-3%. However, as we have seen the last 2 days.........at current prices there are big sellers as well. They are just getting taken out smoothly and stock moves 10-20 cents end of day. If we see a few ore days like today and yesterday they might get over 5% in the next 3-5 trading days. That is what I am watching. For the record, if I see something I can't predict right now, I will start selling/trading. For instance if I had sold yesterday some shares, I could have bought back in the $6.60's this morning and easily sold over $7.05 or held for tomorrow. Easy fast money. I am waiting to see a top. Looks like I'm still at the bottom of the hill......DaninFW
All indicators show EVC overbought. IMVHO we had one buyer take out at least 1 million shares last 2 days. At this rate they are going over 5% or 10% soon. I almost put in an ask of $7.20 on a large block 10 minutes before the close just to see if it would get taken out. Really strange again today. I saw several trades of 35,000-50,000 shares that showed up in daily volume but never reported as trades. I also believe the company is out of the market right now waiting to buy again on any pullback. This could just be spectrum speculators wanting to take a position in a company worth 2-4 times enterprise value. This may be why they tightened up their shareholder proposal rules. The big buyer may take out 5-10%+/- while it's cheap, report in a filing and then sit back and let it slowly drop so they can add again. Then, right before the next shareholder meeting, they might have say 10-15%+/- and then make a proposal to liquidate the company, elect their slate of directors, etc. which was also part of the filing. Management is looking ahead to the next annual meeting which will be several months before the auction. They probably sense this may be the plan of speculators. Interesting that we hit $7.10 again and backed off. However, yesterday it was quick and then we had the large block at $7.05 and sharp drop. Today, we traded hundreds of thousands of shares at $7.06-$7.09.......not much at $7.10. I think we will rocket up tomorrow unless market tanks......but that didn't stop it today. DaninFW
Read my posts on EVC. Those that bought 2 months ago have a 75% profit. I think plenty of upside still but catch up on postings. The USCRW warrants are great below $4. I am betting on a great report on HOV tomorrow. Anything below $3.80 is a buy IMVHO. DaninFW
I have 220,000 EVC and 120,000 HOV. The USCXW's I have 72,000. In EVC at about $5.29, HOV at $3.10 and USCXW's at about $2.60+/-............don't want to disclose the 4th. I have smaller investments in many other stocks. DaninFW
This is why PBY's is getting their butts handed to them:
"AutoZone reported double-digit fiscal first-quarter earnings growth as plunging gasoline prices and favorable weather led to better than expected results.
Analysts said, though, that AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), the top U.S. auto parts retailer, could face headwinds in the coming year due to higher costs and intense competition.
AutoZone's earnings per share climbed 15.6% to $7.27 vs. consensus for $7.16 from 23 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The auto parts retailer has had double-digit profit growth in all but one quarter for the last five years.
View Enlarged Image
Revenue for the quarter rose 8.1% to $2.26 billion as increased product assortment and inventory count attracted more customers to stores.
AutoZone shares were up 2.4% in Tuesday morning trading on the stock market today. The stock hit a new high after breaking the 600 mark for the first time.
"Our growth improved significantly this quarter," CEO Bill Rhodes said in a statement, "which we believe was a result of our continued efforts to improve the business, most notably inventory availability, combined with lower gas prices and favorable weather in the last two weeks of our quarter."
The presentation was great. A few points.
1) First $10 million repurchase completed. CFO implied they have slowed purchases. Didn't say anything about new $10 million.
2) Still plan to pay $10-20 million down on debt this year.
3) CFO mentioned their spectrum was worth $1-2 Billion according to Greenhill. He also mentioned that it was based on $1.50 mhz. He then said the current auction was at $3.00 and that an analyst said current auction makes the previous Greenhill estimate low......that instead of $45 billion it should be $90 billion. That would make EVC spectrum worth $2-4 billion........
4)the rest was pretty much the same as other presentations.
I would add big buyer is back again and blocks are flying.
I didn't say $8.50 was a floor. I think the low 8's is a good entry point and place to start accumulation. I've lived too long not to know anything is possible. I was buying PBY in the 3's during the time you mentioned. The world was going to end at that point in time.......many thought. That time could come again. 6-7 years ago, energy was 5% of bonds and now 16% of bonds. The banks crashed 40% in a few weeks due to the mortgage/debt crisis and carried the world with it. The oil assets backing bank loans, bonds, etc. is now worth 50-60 cents on the dollar and many think it could fall to 35 to 40 cents on the dollar. The state of Oklahoma said yesterday their state revenues were falling due to low energy prices. That's why I'm staying 60%+/- cash.........DaninFW
I quit adding years ago when I was $600K+.....I want to stay 60%+ cash right now and I have major positions in 4 stocks right now. One has a investor presentation at 10:00 this morning(EVC) and HOV reports in the morning. If I liquidate them I will probably move a bunch into PBY below $8.50+/-...........DaninFW
I would add that I don't see you losing money if you can buy at $8.52......I may wait a day or so. I'm never in a hurry when it comes to PBY. I don't worry if I get it or not.....PBY has been my biggest money maker of all time just trading. DaninFW
This is response to Lee and All----we have all wanted cheap gas again. We got it. The market is also being effected because of it. 6-7 years ago, only 5% of bonds were energy. Market crashed because of housing bubble. Today, many think it could happen again because of energy. 16-17% of all bonds are now energy. Banks dropped 40% in a few weeks 6-7 years ago. Many think it will happen again if energy keeps falling. Time to walk softly.........EVC recovering because of spectrum........but it too could catch the virus. DaninFW
The "goodies" is quarterly dividend, special dividends and share repurchases. Share repurchases are considered as a return to remaining shareholders as assets will be divided by fewer shareholders. Repurchases also supposedly increase stock price which is also a return to shareholders. I think that's what he implied. The only other thing they could possibly return is splitting the company and issuing new shares in new company.......radio, etc. I don't see that happening. DaninFW
NAB just filed again yesterday and made it clear that the new rules would be tied up in court as well if they didn't make the changes they requested. DaninFW
I was talking other than AH. Might be enticed below $8.50 but overall market big concern now. Energy and bank complexes could crash. Energy was 5% of all bonds 6 years ago and now 16% of bonds outstanding. Banks could get clobbered. Remember when they dropped 40% in a few weeks and took the market down.......DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Sell