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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 219 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 17 minutes ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • Reply to

    Daninfw04: Are you averaging down?

    by shorthighcoverlower Aug 26, 2015 12:57 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    It could work either way but investors expect something about the strategic review. It will have been 2 months and 9 days when they report. I think earnings will be secondary. Investors will try and read between the lines as to what is happening behind the scenes. Of course, if they report a stronger than expected quarter we might also get anticipation that the bid will be higher as PBY's is performing better than expected. If you remember the Gore deal, it actually fell apart when they reported earnings....or I should say lack of. it spooked Gore and they walked away. 9-09-15 will be very important one way or the other. If they don't beat any current deal on the table might get pulled. that's the real danger. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Daninfw04: Are you averaging down?

    by shorthighcoverlower Aug 26, 2015 12:57 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    Not yet. I am averaging down on some other holdings. If the deal goes through we get easily $3-5 from here but if deal doesn't go through we drop $1-2 now very easily. I would average down then. The scary thing now is with PBY at $10.40+/- and it was almost $12 when strategic review was announced........any bidders have a good argument for making a $1.00+/- lower offer. PBY needs to pop soon or final price may be $13-14. JMVHO. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Back In

    by daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 4:09 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 26, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    FCC is at it again. They have put off releasing the final starting bids and now say they will come out at least 60 days before last date to sign up for the auction. Still next 30-45 days+/-......market looks like going to be extremely volatile next week or so at least. May trade or hold. Hard to say now. Will buy below $7.25 now and sell $8+/-........easy 5-10% for quick trade. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Back In

    by daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 4:09 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 10:38 PM Flag

    I still think for the risk reward that SD at some point will be a good buy. Over a billion in cash and assets to sell. Looking to enter set some point below 40 cents. The trick will be if oil gets back to $60 before they have to file bankruptcy. At less than 40 cents little risk as bankrupt companies often trade for more......always on rumor. Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:15 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    It doesn't matter to me. I really could care less. If PBY's gets bought out next week or next month it will have zero to do with anything other than strategic review. The broadcast sector is going to have an auction and give broadcasters $40 BILLION+/-in free cash in 2016. HOV has undervalued assets in a sector at 8 year highs in new home construction. Sure, price may go down more but I am not willing to miss making a fortune fighting over nickels and dimes, quarters or dollars for that matter. If I buy stocks today that are worth say $2 million in 6-9 months I could care less if I pay $800,000, $900,000 or a million. Hope this doesn't come across wrong. I will also stay at least 50% cash in case market ever drops 25-30%. It's worked for 40+ years so I ain't changing now. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Bought 20,000 yesterday and 30,000 today at $7.40......now holding 50,000 at about $7.39+/- average cost. Expect a bump when final starting bids released in next few days. GLTA For EVC it's all about spectrum. Company worth more dead than alive. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:15 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 3:17 PM Flag

    I would add, I don't think anyone expected the DOW to drop 2,000 points in 3 days. I have been expecting a correction which is why I am almost 70% cash today even after making some buys yesterday and today. I did buy another 100,000 HOV yesterday morning at $1.45-$1.46...........DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:15 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    The three stocks you mention have strong support. EVC could go to $5-6 a share and then on 3-29-16 they have the spectrum auction and they get from the FCC $6-10 a share in cash for spectrum and still have 100% of the same operating profit. What will a $6 a share EVC do with $6-10+ in cash? Won't stay $6 for long. Same story for GTN and MEG as well as SBGI. I hope they do crash as it will make me even wealthier. PBY has real estate worth $9-12 a share. How low can it go. Sure $7-8 in a crash but someone will want to buy it again. Same story with HOV. Current "real" book value is almost $4 for a stock selling for $1.60. As soon as they report a profitable quarter.......boom. I only pick a few stocks that have real hidden assets. Sure one or two out of ten don't work out but the rest have made me rich. GLTA. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:15 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 25, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Patrick, I appreciate your thoughts. You and I have been posting hear almost 20 years for me and at least a decade for you I believe. I hope you read a few of my posts. I think PBY's operations and management suck. They are the worst in the sector. I just believe it is time for them to get bought out. I sure as heck wouldn't buy them. The company is worth $9-10 a share max without a buyout. If it was just one company looking I would say dump but I hear 3-5 were in the initial bidding. I also hear they are considering other options as well. Don't know what but it could be a REIT spinoff. I have been to China. I have stories but you would think you were in downtown LA in Shanghai or Beijing. The Chinese have more smart phones than we do. I have never seen as many yachts in China anywhere else in the world. But, the oil coming down will kill 2nd and 3rd world countries but they don't buy anything from us anyway. Drilling costs are dropping faster than anything. We are almost back to the 80's. Drilling can be profitable at $40 a barrel even though the Saudi's do it for $8 a barrel. I have stated for a decade that PBY should split into three companies, retail stores, service stores and an REIT. PBY's runs retail like a stepchild. We may actually see a lot of options soon for PBY's. I just want to make some money here when PBY's finally gets buried. GLTA. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:15 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 24, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    The market is crashing because China's GDP is only going to be up 6-8%instead of 300% over the last 14 years and oil is crashing. This really means we will sell China 6-8% more than last year and the cheapest fuel in 10 years will drive retail and services while cutting all petro related expenses. Market should've up 1,000 points.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GTN Must Evolve

    by daninfw04 Aug 24, 2015 4:59 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 24, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    I would add that GTN currently has over $222 million in cash as of 6-30-15. There is no way they can let this keep crashing without a buyback IMVHO. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Aug 24, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    IMVHO, GTN will get bought out after the auction by cash rich competitors. EVC could be debt free as well as SBGI, MEG and others. GTN could be a sitting target. Kind of funny in a way. Hard to believe they can't see it coming. You don't turn down free money. Something also really hit me. The CEO said in the conference call that they hired a company to talk to thousands of viewers in all their markets. He said many were watching YouTube, Google and Amazon ( I believe that was the three without looking) but he said a fourth that he didn't understand was The Weather Channel. This really is indicative of what will happen in this sector in 3-5 years. The networks need to team up with the local affiliates now but those under 40 are getting their weather info from the Weather Channel 24/7/365. They don't have to wait for the 5 or 10 o'clock news and weather. I believe hat the affiliates will get cut loose next 3-5 years and ABC, NBC, CBS, CW, Univision, etc. will go straight to the consumer and take 100% of retrans or fees. The CEO of GTN is oblivious to what is coming. All he talked about was how GTN had #1 and #2 stations because of news and weather. It won't matter in a few more years. I agree the model is changing. I said last year when all the affiliates renewed their network agreements it took a lot of pressure off. For the record, these are my long term thoughts but others are thinking it's going to happen tomorrow which is what is crashing the sector. I bought 20,000 GTN a few days ago at $12.30+/- and tried to buy another 20,000 today at $10.50 that didn't fill. I don't have the number handy but GTN is going to have about $3.50+/- in FCF in 2016. I believe they will announce a stock buyback soon. They just sold 15 million new shares for $13 less than 5 months ago. That alone should be a support. If I bought then I would be averaging down now. I also bought 20,000 EVC today at $7.375+/- at the close. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 22, 2015 3:02 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 24, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Thanks for your views and yes that was my main point. Even if reverse comp goes up, the retrans to the affiliates is going up net net. It was Marci that said Q2 indicated the affiliates were beginning to lose the net revenue battle not in so many words but was the perceived statement. GLTA today. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Update

    by daninfw04 Aug 21, 2015 9:11 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    If it drops a dollar and pops a dollar may trade but getting close to hold.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:15 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    I think $15-16 at least. $18 might be stretching it. I am humbled that you mentioned me. I commented on your article at Seeking Alpha and added some thoughts. You didn't spell my id correct so I am safe......DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Update

    by daninfw04 Aug 21, 2015 9:11 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:25 AM Flag

    Market has only dropped this much this past week three times in history, once in 1994, once last year and now this year. All three times the market was higher a week later and a month later. Will history repeat? I am 68% cash as of today. Anything is possible. Starting bids for the auction are due out any day now. I think that will help some stocks in sector especially EVC. However, I am extremely cautious right now. If China doesn't do something tonight or tomorrow to stimulate their economy we could keep going down. I am waiting to see what China does tonight. I think there is a 50/50 chance EVC could test $7.00-$7.25 again after Friday. We are only 7 months away from the auction. I posted something on the GTN board you might want to read also on why sector crashed. Regardless of whether EVC hits $7 or $4 it is going to sell $5-10 worth of spectrum per share in the auction IMVHO. EVC is probably the only stock in the sector literally worth more dead than alive. They could sell all their spectrum for $20+ per share. I personally wish they would get out completely but Univision isn't going to let that happen. We have to settle for 40-50% of their real potential but shareholders will still own a potentially perceived declining business model. I currently plan to buy 100,000 EVC at $7........if it dips to $4-5 I will buy even more. It would be a gift. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Aug 23, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Just looked at balance sheet and compared to what it was a few days before Gore made their $15 offer three years ago and what it is today. Kind of interesting.
    Total assets then were $1,633,779,000 vs $1,541,741,000. Keep in mind a lot of real estate is carried still at prices paid in 1950's and 1960's then and now.
    Long term debt then was $294,043,000 and now just $193,500,000.
    Stock holder equity was $504,329,000 then and now $538,099,000.
    Book value then was $9.56 vs $9.78. I would point out that I used 10K numbers not 10Q numbers. In hind sight I should have used most recent quarter for all financials. For instance, as of Q1 16 ending May 2015, book value was $9.99 which is 43 cents higher then when previous buyout offer was made. There is no reason to expect less than $15-16 offer IMVHO especially since real estate has appreciated considerably in last 2-3 years. Just FYI. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Aug 22, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    I bought 20,000 GTN on Thursday at the close at $12.29-$2.30......thinking it was close to bottom. Should have waited but not concerned. It's a steal at these prices. Will buy more if it drops Monday. I finally got caught up today and listened to the conference call. Value investor posted but somehow it does not show up. He said Marci did not downgrade the affiliates. That is true and value is one of the most knowledgeable posters on this sector. But, she commented that Q2 results were finally showing up that reverse comp was increasing and started to hit expense lines. As many of you know that have followed my posts over the past 20+ years, I think Marci Ryvicker is an idiot. This is further proof. She participated in the conference call and it went over her head. The CEO stated that reverse comp was mainly up because it was the first quarter that they ever had to pay reverse comp to CBS. Duhhhhhhhh. Their actual controllable expenses were down almost $5 million. Then all we see is headlines where GTN expenses are going up. Nobody bothered to mention that retrans is also growing at GTN or that they added 5 new stations. I would also add that if Marci really thought reverse comp was going thru the roof......she should be recommending DIS (ABC). She crashed this sector before when she put out a downgrade and didn't understand what was happening. CEO actually said all revenues were going up with exception of political. They actually did the same revenue this year for Q2 and didn't even have much if any political. The real reason for sector crash Friday was the Bernstein analyst said the current broadcast tv model is broken and should be considered impaired. Another idiot. But, this guy is also the #1 analyst for communications sector and highly respected. I do think GTN is making a mistake not planning to participate in the auction. It's free money. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm In

    by daninfw04 Aug 17, 2015 9:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 21, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    Very typical of execs at PBY. I posted something when they hired him. An exec from the rental car business instead if someone that worked their way up. The COB is the same. The BOD's for ORLY has at least three members that I know personally that started out working in the stores. The CEO started out part time in college as a delivery driver. You wonder what makes a difference.

  • Reply to

    bought the dip this am

    by shorthighcoverlower Aug 21, 2015 9:51 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Aug 21, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    I was too cautious this morning and really watching another sector I like. I did buy 20,000 more PBY yesterday at $11.29-$11.30. Wish I had waited but happy with the 50,000 now holding for buyout. Nice trade you made. DaninFW

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