As I said, it's about the spectrum. Those that sold out of fear this morning got clobbered. MM might keep it in this range a few days to shake out the last of the weak hands. WFC has an average cost of $6.48 to $6.52.....can't remember which, but you can bet they are buying. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Now that I have vented about management performance or should I say lack of performance, I want to talk about today. I don't really see much downside because EVC is a spectrum play. Nobody should be buying this company at current prices unless they were playing for spectrum value. That hasn't changed. If anything, the lackluster performance in Q3 and now Q4 only makes it easier for an activist hedge fund like White Face Capital to make a play for the company. I expect in next month to 3 months a report where they have upped the ante and seek board representation. Things have to happen pretty quick for them to have any say in the auction. The company I also still buying shares and has $7.5 million as of this morning to buy shares as well. We may dip but I expect a quick bounce as cheap shares will be taken out IMVHO. Retail investors will be only sellers and there aren't many of them left. DaninFW
Many of you have been on this board for years with me and others. A few are new. I just want to clarify a few things and make a point or two. I said almost 2 years ago this company was worth more dead than alive and that it had the worst management team in the sector. Nothing has changed except we found out spectrum is now worth multiple times the current enterprise value. Q$ performance only indicates why that is even more true. These guys couldn't manage themselves out of a paper bag. It hit me last night. The CEO bored everyone to tears and put them to sleep reading as fast as he could and naming every call letter for every radio station in every market. He is getting paid over $2 million a year with his whole package. If you take a hard look at revenue growth in 2014.......they increased total revenues only $5.169 million. Retrans was up $4.2 million and Pulpo was up $3.8 million. That's $8 million. EVC would have seen a loss of $3 million in revenues. These idiots are losing revenues in the fastest growing demographic in the country if not the world. They decreased revenues for ad sales when they were given almost $15 million in World Cup and political. If not for that they would have been $18 million less in revenues. I just wanted to put things in simple perspective. And, the real kicker is corporate expenses and operating expenses increased. They need to start firing some people starting with the CEO.
The press release should have said they made 8 cents before one time non-cash impairment. That's what smart people do. DaninFW
I agree. Last time the miss was because of one time Pulpo expense. I too wouldn't be surprised to see little change tomorrow. I think we have some big buyers now waiting for weak hands. Tomorrow will tell the tale. DaninFW
I don't see the downside like we had last time. I think we may test the $6.50 area and bounce. Last report 4 months ago we didn't have 1) the company buying back shares. 2) spectrum was not being talked about 3) White Face Capital has been acquiring shares. I strongly believe that WFC was expecting this bad report and will use it to buy more shares cheaper. 4) the float has dried up dramatically 5) company still has $7.5 million to spend on repurchase. 6) this company hasn't been selling at $7 a share for metrics anyway. It's all about the spectrum.
Call is fixing to begin. Hopefully, there is some positive forward guidance. DaninFW
Hard to put lipstick on an ugly pig. I have to say EVC once again proves they have the worst management in the sector......even though the CFO at MEG ranks real close. They should have somewhere in the press release said they actually made 8 cents until you back out the non-cash radio impairment of $700K. That would have given them 8 cents. Also, most people don't listen to conference calls. They only read, read, read. There was zero 2015 guidance in the release, Revenues were up $5.169 million yet corporate expense was up $778K of which $400K was non-cash stock for management. Operating expenses were up $2.297 million. These guys can't manage anything. Pulpo revenues were $3.8 million in Q4 at a cost of $1.5 million in expenses. Unless we get some real positive 2015 guidance on the conference call, it may get ugly.
Today is first day in weeks we have not had selling pressure. We had someone put a block of 10,000 for sale at $6.90 that stayed there for about two hours as it got nibbled at. Now we are moving towards $7 albeit on low volume. Would not be surprised to see $7+ today. I will not be selling/trading till after earnings. I will review after this evening. Also, remember we have the presentations 3-09-15 which should also add positive support. DaninFW
Martel, Lee has some interesting information that you might be interested in. He also needs your input on something. DaninFW
Actually, NXST opened up over $5.00 a share up well over 10% while MEG was down over $1.50.......that's the difference in beating or missing estimates. Guidance at MEG looked weak as well. DaninFW
I have said this for years and been attacked a few times for saying so. The truth is the truth.....and she is the top analyst in the sector. Scary. You would think she would have lost the top spot after being wrong almost every time. DaninFW
I just scanned it as I have about 5 companies I trade reporting last night and this morning. MEG also had some nice extraordinary income from station sales. MEG was poorly managed until integration with LIN in Q4 so that is probably correct. Martel would have better handle. DaninFW
As you know, MEG also blew away revenues but MEG missed on earnings by 2 cents. Overall, looks great for sector. Guidance was strong at both companies. The article the other day that Salsam posted with the update from Wedbush, shows they expect EVC to come in at about 9.5 cents. I expect 9-10 cents as well. They need about 11 cents to blow away their numbers IMVHO. Anyone following advice from Wedbush isn't going to get too excited otherwise. DaninFW
What it means......is it might just be political posturing. Many are sending the signal they want more guarantees and more money. Even if they are serious it's good news for other broadcasters participating in the auction because they bid against each other. In any markets with EVC, now EVC doesn't have to worry about at least one broadcaster underbidding them. I haven't looked at MEG's spectrum but they may be in markets where their stations aren't worth a lot. DaninFW
Someone tweeted today that they thought it would bounce above $7 today.......He had a website. Watching paint dry or grass grow is much more exciting. DaninFW