I didn't mention that but analysts did lower expect from 10 to 8 cents after last quarter. The CFO has already said political revenues beat their expect. Many candidates used Pulpo in their campaigns getting Hispanic date. The concern is and was if Pulpo will be a drain in Q4 to earnings. They hit last quarter for about a half cent. They will be accretive in 2015 but the question is Q4. If they can say Pulpo was accretive that is a strong positive. Guidance will be critical. Univision January national ad numbers were down 5% and Telemundo up 8%. I think they will beat by a cent or two. Keep in mind, Piolin didn't launch till January. I have not read of any new stations signed up in several weeks. If radio was up in Q4 and they say it's trending up 2, 3 or 4% in Q1 we might also be off to the races. I caution again.......EVC is fairly valued on financial metrics. Wildcard is spectrum. If they say they have hired someone to maximize their spectrum assets we could be off to the races. These guys really do need to get their stock price up or someone like White Face is going to swoop in and take about 25-30% of the shares for peanuts. The fact that their largest shareholder dumped almost 1.5 million shares says they are tired of waiting. They also had a very nice profit on their investment. It's funny how they will miss the big bucks. DaninFW
This issue should be resolved by year end and could give a real boost to sector if NAB wins:
"The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has set the briefing schedule on broadcaster challenges to the FCC's April 2014 media ownership rule decision, but has made those briefs far briefer than broadcasters had requested.
Initial petitioner briefs, there will be two of them, will be due to the court April 13. One of those is being filed by the National Association of Broadcasters, Nexstar and Howard Stirk Holdings, the other by Prometheus Radio Project. Both have issues with the FCC decision, but Prometheus is opposing what the other broadcasters support, and vice versa. There are intervening deadlines for briefs from amici and intervenors on both sides. The FCC's brief is due June 11. Reply briefs are all due July 27. Final briefs are due Aug. 6. If the court holds to form, that means oral argument in the case will be no sooner than late September 2015.
NAB et al. are challenging the FCC's decision to make joint sales agreements of over 15% attributable as ownership interests, saying the decision was arbitrary and capricious. Prometheus says that decision was arbitrary and capricious, too, but because the FCC did not explain why 15% was the magic number, and because it did nothing to rein in other sharing arrangements.
The challenges extend beyond JSAs and sharing agreements to broader ownership issues, including the FCC's decision not to loosen the newspaper/broadcast crossownership ban.
Given that NAB and Prometheus are coming at the FCC from two very different directions, the two petitioners agreed to ask the court to be allowed to file separate briefs of 19,000 words apiece, pointing out there was a lot of ground to cover—a typical length for even a small brief is 14,000 said one of the attorneys who sought that word length. Instead the court has only given them a combined 18,000 words and the FCC the same 18,000 for its initial brief, according to a copy of
Decided to do some history reading this morning. In the past four quarterly reports, EVC has met expectations twice, missed once and beat once.
On 2-27-14, EVC reported they beat expect by 1 cent and stock closed up 60 cents next day.
On 5-08-14 they met expect and stock was up 19 cents next day.
On 8-06-14 EVC reported they missed expect by 1 cent and stock crashed 93 cents.
On 11-06-14 they reported they met expect and stock was up 5 cents next day.
We sure better hope they don't miss expect. Otherwise, the odds are good we will have an up day. I will add that on a couple of the days above the stock tanked $1.00 or so and actually came back and closed higher after conference call. If they meet or beat expect and stock drops at the opening the next day, history says to buy at any low. But, I would also caution that stock is near 52 week highs and unless spectrum or some other positive catalyst is mentioned, i.e. radio blows away their numbers, or Pulpo guidance is raised again, I don't see a big day after report. However, this may be the alarm bell needed for big buyer to emerge. Will be interesting. I still believe EVC will beat expect by 1-2 cents and we will see a 25-50 cent pop. DaninFW
I would also add that I would not be surprised if WFC is already at 9%+/- and negotiating with large holders. When they go over 10% they will want to do it in a big way. DaninFW
We sure don't need another catalyst like that.......just imagine if a big holder had dumped.......unbelievable. However, something is up. It's the calm before the storm IMVHO. White Face is very smart. I suspect they have bought a few more % of EVC shares since 1-02-15. I was looking at some old news articles and once or twice they got up to 9.9% of shares before putting some muscle on management. You have certain different filing requirements if you go over 10%. You don't file quarterly at 10%+. You file on any change in holdings. Those by law changes IMVHO had EVC management shaken up a few months ago. WFC could have bought this large block anytime from 10-01-14 to 12-31-14. Will be interesting if they seek BOD representation soon. This was the kind of think I talked about before. If they get up to say 9-10% and strike a deal with Univision for their 10% block it could be a whole new ball game. You can bet things are going on behind the scenes. I would also suggest that the #1 holder who actually sold shares in Q4 may well have been approached by WFC to buy their shares. American Century owned over 6.5 million shares as of 12-31-14. That would give EVC about 11 million shares and if they bought the 9 million from Univision we are talking 20 million out of 90 million shares. That's over 22%. It's over 12% without Univision and if they have still been buying easily 25% control very quickly. Keeping the stock price down helps WFC strike a better deal for all the shares of White Face. If I was White Face that's how I would play it. I would not be surprised to see a press release where WFC is buying all American Century shares or Univision shares at around $8 if not both. Depends on how serious WFC wants to play. With 25% of EVC it's possible that WFC could walk away with $500 million to $1 Billion profit. DaninFW
Looks like 10 so far counting me. Seems like we had about a dozen last time but we apparently don't have the 2 or 3 you know who's. No thumbs downs.......DaninFW
I agree but was just wondering if we lost a bunch. I think EVC is fixing to pop. Someone has been trying to accumulate on the cheap. Last 2 trading days we had someone selling around 50,000+/- shares near the close each day but stock only dropped pennies. If we had anyone buying a few hundred thousand shares this stock would pop 25-50 cents in a day IMVHO. DaninFW
In today's Barron's on page 36 there is an article on a fund manager for the Caribbean Fund. Two of his top picks are CX and MLM for cement and aggregates. His logic is that these two companies are going to be prime beneficiaries of the infrastructure growth over the next few years in Cuba. Cuba is going to need to build new roads, bridges, ports and everything else. Would be interesting if USCR was to move some portable plants to Cuba. However, in recent presentations they hinted strongly at acquiring a large company in Florida. Again, I see USCR in the 40's in 2015. I think we might just pop $3-4 in next 2 weeks with earnings. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Wanted to post a correction. USCR Is still being put back by institutions but First Dallas is actually Hodges Capital the #2 holder. It was not a new position. The filed under First Dallas instead of Hodges. They did add almost 50,000 more shares in Q4.
Discussion has really died down and I suspect many have sold again. Just curious how many are still following the board. Please hit thumbs up or down so we can get a count. Thanks. DaninFW
TV Auction Moving, But Could Still Be Derailed
Momentum for the FCC incentive auction in early 2016 is building. But it could be dissipated if the NAB doesn't settle its repacking lawsuit against the FCC, demand for broadcast spectrum is less than advertised or the FCC gets bogged down in an ugly and protracted political fight over net neutrality.
By Harry A. Jessell
TVNewsCheck, February 20, 2015 3:20 PM EST
Can you feel it? I can.
The momentum for the FCC incentive auction is building.
It was fueled this week by Preston Padden and his band of broadcasters eager to cash out. The Expanding Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition came up with two studies that found that the auction of the broadcast spectrum to wireless carriers would fetch at least $80 billion. That's about four times more than what the entire revenue of the local TV broadcasting business will be this year.
What neither EBOC nor anybody else can tell you right now is how much of the $80 billion will end up in the pockets of the broadcasters who sell spectrum to the FCC (so it can be resold it to the wireless carriers) and how much will end up in the federal treasury.
To a large extent, that will be determined by the rules of the reverse auction — the mechanism the FCC has chosen to buy the broadcast spectrum. Those rules are far from settled.
Still, we are talking billions to be divided by maybe a few hundred TV stations. The consensus within the industry now is let's get on with it, let's make the incentive auction happen.
As of the NAB winter board meeting in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., a month ago, that consensus is now directing the trade group. And it was confirmed when four large stations groups — Tribune, Univision, Ion and Fox — visited FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler on Aug. 6, 2014, to say they had spectrum to sell and argue for reverse auction rules that would maximize how much they would get for it. NAB President Gordon Smith made it
It took me all week to get just over 12,000 more warrants, mainly the USCXW's but I did buy 3,617 USCRW's today at $8.96-$9.00......the USCXW warrants from $5.96 to $6.51. I had orders in for almost another 10,000 that didn't fill. Have over 60,000 total now as I have traded a little over the last few months. Many were gotten in bankruptcy court and about 2/3 bought in the low 3's. However, I am starting to average up now as I believe USCR will hit over $40 in 2015. The leverage is incredible here. For about $250K I control almost $2 million in USCR stock. If USCR hits $40 I will make an additional $600K on top of what I already have made. Incredible. Now has three analysts say buy with price targets $39-42.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Martel, I have said this for years about the analysts in this sector. Yahoo may be a problem also. Marci Ryvicker is a joke. SBGI has now blown away expect over 80% of the time last 3 years yet analysts still lower expect. The mentality of the street that this sector is dying just blows me away. DaninFW
This is two buy recommendations in 3 days:
"Stephens initiated coverage on U.S. Concrete (NASDAQ: USCR) with an Overweight rating and a price target of $42.00."
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The coalition of broadcasters kicking the tires on the FCC broadcast incentive auction has told the commission its auction game plan needs work.
In comments to the FCC on its proposal for pricing TV stations in the auction and repacking them afterwards, the Expanding Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition (EOBC) says that if the FCC gets it right, it could get the 126 MHz from broadcasters it has always targeted, but not at the rate it is going.
"Unfortunately, many of the proposals in the Auction Comment [Public Notice] reflect a belief that the Commission, rather than the market, is the best determinant of auction outcomes. While this belief never was appropriate, it is particularly misplaced in light of the unmistakable market signals from the AWS-3 auction." That auction raised almost $45 billion for spectrum that most consider not as valuable as the broadcast spectrum.
Chief among EOBC's concerns is the way the FCC is pricing the spectrum, including the pricing of its opening bids and the dynamic reserve pricing (DRP) model the FCC has proposed for conducting the auction, which allows reserve prices to continue to decline even as they were rejected by broadcasters.
EOBC argues the latter artificially depresses prices for winning bidders or relegates stations to the wireless portion of the band, with interference potential for both stations and wireless operators.
EOBC says the FCC's opening bid prices are too low— those prices will only go down from there since the money goes to the station willing to take the least money for giving up spectrum. The coalition argues that the FCC's justifications for its price,that higher starting points would result ion "many hundreds of rounds" or that the FCC is bound by statute to limit payments to broadcasters, are "fabricated" and "unacceptable," and the number of rounds a red herring. The recently completed, wildly successful —at least financially— AWS-3 auction went 341 rounds.
"Any scheme to artificially limit payments to broadcasters is contrary to the market-based principles that the Commission has espoused," EOBC says. "The only predictable aspect of DRP is that no station will receive its opening price or likely anything approaching its opening price," EOBC says.
Using DRP to artificially depress the price of a TV station before putting it up for auction, says EOBC, is like "beating your car with a sledge hammer before taking the photo to sell it on Craigslist."
EOBC's Preston Padden has consistently criticized the DRP approach. Back in December, he called DRP a nonstarter and said it actually stands for "discourage robust participation" or "dynamically rigging pricing."
EOBC closed its comments on an up note. "By committing to a market-based auction that places spectrum to its best and highest use, the Commission will attain the once unthinkable goal of reallocating at least 126 MHz of broadcast spectrum," it said. "The Expanding Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition and its members are committed to continuing to work with the FCC to achieve this result."
IMVHO it all makes sense now. Stock is being heavily manipulated to force out the weak hands. Over 93% of the float is now locked up. I may play a game next day or so and when there is some buyers put out about 20,000 shares about a dime higher than current trade just to see if it gets taken out. We may have one big seller but we have a bunch of LT holders now. I think stock is being held down so they can accumulate. EVC has never traded in this narrow of a range for this long on such low volume. Getting ready for a breakout. DaninFW