On a side note I have visited about 20+/- Caribbean islands and on about a dozen of them the Chinese have paid for new soccer stadiums. Talk about buying political favors........when I was in China a couple of years ago I was amazed. The people love Americans and want what we have. I think every Chinese I saw had a smart phone. I said when the Chinese took over Hong Kong it would be the best thing in the world. It taught them that Capitalism worked.......
Glad you have done well. I wish I had bought more USCR warrants myself. At one point I thought I was crazy for owning 70,000+/- of them. They just keep doing the Texas Two Step. I have almost sold a dozen times and each time a few weeks later they are worth another $70K+/-..........the yuan is a very interesting story. One of my sons double shorted the Chinese stock index a few weeks ago and has made a fortune. I have never played currencies. The Chinese refuse to let it float. If they ever change their mind it is going to be interesting. They are the largest holder of US debt at $1.3 trillion. As they emerge as the world's largest economy the world as we know it will change. DaninFW
Watched for years and used to play Massey and did well before they got bought out. The sector looks bleak right now. BTU might be only survivor but it was down a bunch yesterday. Good luck. DaninFW
I have to admit I am concerned with Q2 for USCR with all the rain we have had around the country especially in Texas. Even if they beat the numbers they would have blown them away. I do expect a rosy projection for remainder of 2015 which might dampen any concerns. If they miss it might be the last opportunity to get in this stock as it will blow away Q3 numbers IMVHO. However, last Saturday I was out on the street coming from a store and while sitting at the intersection I looked up. At all three other lights was a different cement truck going three different directions. That got my attention. Builders and contractors are taking every dry day to pour concrete even on weekends. Made me really stop and think. I don't know if I mentioned it before but I had my patio redone about 3 weeks ago and they used 10 yards. They poured it in between the rain and covered with plastic to dry. I didn't expect them to even start till it got dry. The rain will have an effect but not as much as we think IMVHO. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think most stocks are overbought and about 85-90% cash as of today. I do a little trading each day but waiting for something to pop myself. MEG is going to look very good IMVHO if it drops $1-2. I am patient. I have several on radar like HOV, RFP, MEG, EVC. GLTA DaninFW
I still think EVC and MEG best two stocks to play the spectrum play. I just really believe LPTV group will file a lawsuit and put off another 6-12 months. For me that would be great and LT holders just have to wait longer. I believe the longer it takes the more money will be paid as well. DaninFW
I sold all holdings but USCR warrants today with exception that I bought another 20,000 GTN at $15.57-$15.58 today for another trade. Overall market looking like a 2-3% "correction". EVC looking weak today as well with lowest volume in 8-9 days and closing at low of the session. Looks like it's ready to drop 25-50 cents to me. GLTADaninFW
This came out yesterday and is why I think auction will be delayed:
" Mike Gravino, director of the LPTV Spectrum Rights Coalition, tells B&C/Multichannel News that taking the FCC to court over the incentive auction is now a "given."
That comes after the FCC denied more than two dozen LPTV decisions to reconsider various aspects of the upcoming incentive auction. Except for class A LPTVs, low power stations and translators, the latter of which help extend the reach of full-power stations to hard-to access populations, don't get to participate in the auction, or get protection from interference of displacement in the station repack after the auction.
Gravino said that representatives of his industry, the National Association of Broadcasters and noncommercial TV execs are meeting with FCC chairman Tom Wheeler Monday to talk about the FCC's Auction Procedures public notice, which will deal with other issues with the FCC's denial of those petitions, but signaled the die is cast for further legal action.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit recently rejected the National Association of Broadcasters and Sinclair's legal challenges to the auction, but it looks like it will be getting some more action.
"Taking the FCC to court is a given for the LPTV industry, but which group does it, and when, is still being analyzed."
There were over 25 denials of LPTV petitions, essentially all of the ones which were submitted. Unlike the NAB and Sinclair legal challenges, which accepted a speedy process by the court, LPTV will probably not be so accommodating, he said."
I agree. The calculations show MEG spectrum worth $15.03 per share, the second best after EVC. Gabelli even pointed out that EVC would have to share some of their $10.87 with Univision. MEG will do the smart thing where EVC will never get more than 50% of their potential since they plan to maintain same metrics. DaninFW
Congrats to the longs. The analysts finally are coming around:
"Wedbush Raises Price Target on Entravision Communication (EVC) After Meeting with Head of Digital Segment
Wedbush remains Neutral on Entravision Communications (NYSE: EVC), and raised the price target to $9.00 (from $7.00), after meeting with the head of EVC s digital segment. Analyst James Dix says that EVC s digital offering is well-positioned against competitors, as it has the highest online reach, and can leverage EVC s TV and radio station sales force and content.
Dix commented, "We raise our estimate of the likely value of EVC s auction option to ~$4 per share from $2 per share, largely to reflect a substantially lower discount for the possibility of auction delay or failure. The range of potential spectrum values for EVC remains wide, given the uncertainties of the auction process and the changing demand for spectrum. Our ~$400m estimate is likely at the lower end of this range. However, we substantially eliminate our prior ~50% discount to the realization of these proceeds. First, litigation that could delay the auction has been resolved in the FCC s favor. Second, and more importantly, our checks and public comments by the FCC s chairman indicate that the final rules (to be published on 7/16) will maintain the timetable of a 1Q16 auction, using the prior opening bid assumptions, will eliminate the proposed dynamic reserve pricing ( DRP ) feature, and provide greater transparency on the progress of the auction. We believe that the elimination of DRP increases the chances that EVC will participate and have stations cleared in the auction. We still see EVC s key spectrum as primarily in Boston, Hartford, Hagerstown, MD, Washington, DC, Monterrey, CA, Santa Barbara, CA, Palm Springs, CA, and San Diego, with the elimination of the DRP having the most likely positive impact on the spectrum auction option value from Boston. EVC should be able to use its $320million in NOL's....."DaninFW
MLM paid about 4-5X USCR's enterprise value for Texas Industries.....USCR is still a minnow buying smaller minnows. They are getting to the size to warrant interest of the big players now.....if not PE. DaninFW
I would add that I am holding my warrants in USCR because I don't have the confidence of management at EVC. My calculations are showing me that MEG is the better buy of the two at this point. I even bought 20,000 GTN Friday at $15.59 average just for a trade hopefully Monday. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think it very likely. Hopefully we see another $8-10+ before an offer is made. We may get $60+ in 12-18 months. If they continue some more big acquisitions we could get close to $4 in EPS in 2016 IMVHO. I remember my USCR warrants I got in bankruptcy were worth nothing for 2-3 years and now well over $200K......and that doesn't count the 50,000+/- that I bought between $3-6+/-.........I have made over $500 K on my warrants to date. If USCR hits $60+ in next 26 months I could cash out for $2 million profit. Insane when the stock was $1 a few years ago......._DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
USCR may have popped yesterday because the expect was increased. EPS for 2015 was raised from $2.85 to $2.79 and 2016 was raised from $2.72 to $2.77.......no way USCR will earn less in 2016. The IBD article even mentions USCR will drop 4% EPS in 2016. The 4 analysts that cover USCR are all across the spectrum. Revenue expect in 2015 ranges from $857.3 million to $958.93 million and 2016 from $925.47 million to $1.13 billion. That's a difference of $187.53 million! The one analysts needs to get off his #$%$ and update his numbers! I can't believe they pay some of these idiots. The $1.13 billion will end up low......USCR is crushing the numbers. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
IBD ran a big article on cement players after market closed Friday in Today's newspaper. Well worth the read. Still see USCR at $48 in 2015 and $60 in 12-18 months. They have a license to print money. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for your kindness. I believe to whom much is given much is required. I believe in sharing. Not always right but I've been doing this 40+ years. I only recommend things I put my money in personally. Some call that conflict of interest. I call it ownership. I never worry about buying at the low or selling at the high. I just make money. If you have been following me around the boards hopefully you got in USCXW and USCRW's. I still have 70,000+ of them and they were up 75-80 cents each today. Missed the extra boost in EVC this time but made on the USCR warrants what I could have made in EVC. I also made a nice trade in HOV today. I don't post on the HOV board because HOV is so volatile. GLTA
Of course. Either EVC or MEG. Looks like I will have to wait a little now. Congrats to those that held. It was a long time in coming. There is still a year before the auction. Plenty of ups and downs to come. I have been in and out this sector more times than I can count. Q2 looks weak for sector and Q3 not much better at this point. IMVHO less than 5% are buying for spectrum in sector. For EVC, at some point the shorts can't resist hammering. Hope for the longs they can see it move higher. There is always stocks I can buy. As I told Lee yesterday in private e-mail, I bought 100,000 HOV at $2.61+/- Wednesday and another 100,000 HOV yesterday at $2.60+/- and sold just a few minutes ago at $2.704-$2.705.......made a little over $19K to reduce the pain from EVC.......a good trader can always make money. DaninFW
I thought I would share the calculated Greenhill median spectrum values per share:
EVC $10.87 but Gabelli warned that EVC would have to share some of this with Univision
It's obvious to me that the four top stocks to buy based on spectrum and current stock price are EVC, MEG, SBGI and NXST. If you factor in that EVC is worth $6-7 based on metrics and would have to share at least $1-2 per share with Univision, IMVHO it makes spectrum worth an extra $8-9 for EVC. GTN has said they will not sell spectrum. If they change their mind a different consideration. Looks to me that EVC and MEG could double from current price after auction. Probably a 50%+ pop for NXST and SBGI.