I agree with the two of you and holding. A third bit of positive news just hit with The Street making a pronouncement as well. I would rather wait to see how high it goes and sell when it flat lines. But, if we get another really big pop on no news.........it will be tempting again. DaninFW
Getting very tempting to sell right now. But, there is only single 1, strength 1 resistance from $6.17 to $6.45 and zero resistance above $6.45........may really break out. DaninFW
I had been wondering why no dividend announcement. I expected a 10 cent special dividend. The repurchase is in essence a 11 cent return to shareholders. I think this even better. I wish instead of paying debt down $20 million as stated by CFO, they would instead repurchase another $20 million in stock. Here's why. If they repurchased $30 million more instead of $10 million they would retire about 5 million shares. That would leave about 85 million shares outstanding instead of 90 million. If they sell about $2 billion in spectrum that makes cash received value $23.53 instead of $22.22........that's about 33 cents per share repurchase to generate $1.23 in returns. On an even bigger picture, debt is nothing now. Only 10-20% of value of spectrum......and perhaps just 5-10% if it's worth double previous projections. They should do a $100 million private placement bond offer and use proceeds to buy back the Univision shares for say $8 a share and use other $20 million for more repurchase in open market. They could retire about $13 million shares this way and remove the power Univision has over EVC. The $100 million investment at say 8% interest for 2 years would cost $116 million and paid off after selling spectrum. Instead of 90 million shares outstanding they would have about 75 million with other already announced repurchases. At $2 billion in spectrum value that makes the 75 million shares worth $26.67 now instead of $22.22 per share with 90 million outstanding an increase of $4.45 per share to remaining holders. This is what concerns me on this weak management team. They don't think smart. This would also get price per share up so EVC is not stolen on the cheap. DaninFW
My oldest son has been published in several oil and gas magazines and letters in Fortune, etc. He is considered an expert of sorts regarding taxing of oil and gas assets. When the shale boom recently hit in two new states, the state legislatures brought him in to do seminars for the Congressmen and Senators to bring them up to speed. Kind of proud of him and the rest of the brood. Daninfw
I really like keeping low profile. Just FYI but Aereo filed bankruptcy a few days ago and spectrum auction above $35 billion today. Tomorrow should be interesting but rest of the week pretty dead. Daninfw
another SA article came out after close hyping the stock. The article is positive and projects a big pop in EZvC. However, the author is laughable and uses spectrum values for 2013, divides by wrong number of shares, states that Univision controls EVC just to mention a few. Where do these idiots come from? Still holding. Daninfw
Another part of the NAB lawsuit says that they think the Class A stations are worth even more than Greenhill said. Here's the basic argument. Again, nothing but potential to increase spectrum values even more:
"The EOBC is honing in transmitting antenna patterns.
“By failing to double the vertical antenna patterns for Class A stations, TVStudy undervalues the service and interference potential of some Class A TV stations,” Padden’s comment states.
E.g., the omission predicts a population loss of nearly 96 percent for KSKT-CA in San Marcos, Calif., he said; one that is mitigated entirely by using vertical antenna pattern data values set forth in the commission’s July, 2011, Digital LPTV Order. This, with all other parameters reflecting those set out by the NAB in the organization’s comments on TVStudy. The resulting population coverage results also exactly reflect those of TVStudy’s precursor, OET-69, Padden said.
“The continued use of input values in TVStudy that the FCC has deemed ‘not appropriate’ will have a tremendous negative impact on certain Class A TV stations both in the auction and the subsequent repack,” Padden said. “First, it will unfairly reduce compensation for affected stations considering auction participation. Second, it will result in a failure to identify many unacceptable repacking scenarios—leading to real world interference after the auction that will, in some cases, greatly exceed the predictions in TVStudy.
“We urge the commission to act promptly to revise the vertical antenna pattern inputs in TVStudy to reflect the same values that the agency has used for years to determine a Class A TV station’s coverage and interference. “
Part of the problem is that the LPTV stations will require at least $150,000 per station to repack. NAB and others do not think that is enough and the individual stations will have to make up the difference. That was the other almost $2 billion that was being reserved. It would appear the current auction will generate more than enough which will allow FCC to offer more for the transition. The other legal concern is no protection for translators that could be eliminated which are being used to boost signal mainly for the 19% that use antennas in rural areas. SBGI uses a lot of translators. I think with the new values of spectrum, the FCC will have the money to work out the legal issues. The currently proposed FCC repacking plan does not even MENTION translators much less approves of them. Many broadcasters would lose viewers if not approved or changed. Many rural communities have even paid for their own translators in order to boost signal. You can bet they will contest the auction if not clarified soon. DaninFW
I believe all future M&A will be based on value of spectrum. For instance, NXST just yesterday bought a station in Las Vegas for $145 million and was totally based on cash flow and being immediately accretive to NXST by 40 cents/year per share. The spectrum is only worth $13-15 million in Las Vegas. If the spectrum and station had been located in San Diego which the spectrum alone is worth $250 million.......you can bet it would not have gone for $145 million. I would add that EVC really doesn't have but three options. 1) Sell the station spectrum for 100% and shut station down 2) Take about 50% of proceeds and channel share or 3) don't auction spectrum and sit back and let FCC take it away and repack where it is worth nothing. I think this is what's known as a no-brainer. So, we have three issues that will ultimately create the value equation. Do they do option 1 or 2 and when will the auction happen? If the values are double the original projections which they might well be.........$60-70 million a year in cash flow means nothing when the company could be worth $4-5 billion dead.......even though they would still have radio and digital/mobile assets. Based on current auction, they could sell all broadcast spectrum, have up to $3 billion in cash after paying off $400 million in debt and paying all taxes.........that's $33 per share. And other assets would be worth say $1-2 a share. That's $34-35 a share. It would take EVC 40-50 years to generate that much value at $60-70 million a year in FCF. Someone is going to take this company private or other broadcaster is going to gobble up. DaninFW
I continue to educate myself in regards to value of spectrum. I suspect this is happening universally as well and will ultimately rocket the stock price of certain companies like EVC. Many think every tv station in the U.S. have spectrum to sell. This is not true. Most if not all the recent new players are what is called Low Power TV stations. They will get nothing for their stations/spectrum and will be forced to repack and move to another bandwidth. There are 3,800 LPTV stations in the U.S. which is why there are lawsuits. They want protection from interference. ONLY 4% OF THESE LPTV STATIONS ARE CLASS A STATIONS THAT CAN PARTICIPATE IN THE AUCTION. EVC currently has 23 Full Power and 9 Class A stations that can participate in the auction. Only three of their total stations are LPTV station and can't participate. Over 90% of the stations owned by EVC are eligible for the auction. NO OTHER BROADCASTER COMES CLOSE TO THESE NUMBERS. No wonder we have come up almost 50% from the 52 week low in a matter of weeks. I suspect there is much more to come. DaninFW
Just hit a new 52 week high. Seemed like every one liked the presentation in Dallas on Thursday. Had lunch with retired VP of Texas Industries yesterday. I asked his thoughts. He thinks we will soon see a wave of more mergers and acquisitions. He also thinks USCR will soon get taken out as well with their rapid growth. Another few days like last 2 days and we will be in some serious money. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Barron's did an article today on DISH and how Barron's predicted how it would pop after the auction. They had an article in July saying to expect it to go up in November because of spectrum. They said today expect another 25% on DISH. It is a moving target right now, When auction is finished the pencil pushers will start looking at values. No question now that the $45 billion estimate is very low not including the fact Firstnet is now fully funded and broadcasters would get that other $7 billion. I am still holding all shares and may trade some but leaning to holding all if not most shares for at least a little longer. I really believe that EVC has already or soon will have a target painted on it's back. There are no guarantees the auction will ever happen but Congress mandated three auctions several years ago and we are concluding the second one in next week or so. There are those for and against the auction but increasing values are going to work in favor of sellers. We are at least 12-16 months away from the next auction. Going to be a lot of volatility. I still think, especially now, that someone is going to try and steal EVC on the cheap and make an offer of $8-10 next few months. DaninFW
If you remember the Seeking Alpha article where the second guy came out and then a few days later said he went short..............he illustrated where the majority of recent previous auctions were already just under $2. He predicted they might be worth 150% of what the Greenhill guys working for the FCC projected. I think when the current auction is completed the values will have to be projected at 150-200% of what was previously thought. That's why I said EVC might be worth 8-10 times its current stock price. Insane. Daninfw
First off I am immediately putting contranut on ignore. He is a total waste of my time and everyone else. I have said enough. As of this minute I am still holding all EVC shares and haven't sold any in at least 3-4 months. It's probably closer to 6+ months but I don't care to look. I intend to start trading soon with EVC. I intend to always maintain a large position but this stock swings 3-6% almost daily. I can sell a large block on a pop and buy back on a drop. I don't have the time or inclination to post my trades. I also don't want to alert the mm as to when or what I will be selling. You can bet he watches these boards. I would. I have a lot of personal friends and relatives that have bought EVC on my advice mostly in the low 4's. I am telling everyone that I like trading daily. I am also telling you that LT IMVHO this stock is going to be like a gold mine. I have never posted with the intent to manipulate any stock. Nor will I ever. Anyone buying this stock on my recommendation now has a nice profit.......many of you 35-40%. I will still post on this board. GLTA
Today there is an article where two minority owners are filing lawsuits against the majority owner for selling two stations in Toledo for $400,000.......they claim they are worth at least $38 million just for the spectrum. As more and more publicity of this type gets out we should see continued interest in this sector. Today for over four hours, almost 5 hours now, there has been a block of 6,000 EVC shares for sale at $5.60. The mm has kept the price almost constant. IMVHO the mm is trying to shake the last of the weak hands out of EVC. I would bet we pop above $5.60 at the close. Will be very interesting. EVC has always been manipulated by mm. DaninFW
current auction is already at $23 Billion, more than double the expect and still two weeks of more bids. They already have the $7 Billion to pay for Firstnet which was coming out if the $45 Billion. That now gives the broadcasters $45 billion instead of $38 billion. So, that means that the spectrum owned by EVC is worth at least 20% more now. That's another potential $200 to $400 million or $2-4 a share. All this is based on previous estimates. If the auction in 2016 goes for double expect like this one we are talking EVC worth $4-5 Billion. That would be $40-50 a share.............I feel like I am talking science fiction..........but these are real bids with almost 1800 bidders thus far. It is rumored that Apple, Microsoft and Google will bid in 2016. Daninfw
You are nuts. This proves nothing. And explain to me why I even owe you any explanation? I don't. You are a self professed liar, delusional psycho and nutcase.....not to mention paranoid. You think this is a conspiracy and everyone posting is me. You think everyone posting how crazy and stupid you are is me. You also admit to being a male chauvinist and apparently hate women. I am not a psychologist but it appears you were abused by your mother as a child......unless you are still a child which is very possible as well. You always bring up security.....like it's an issue for you. Were you severely deprived as a child as well. How often do you see your shrink? What meds are you on? I think you need a better doctor and better drugs. They ain't working amigo. You need real help. And you keep deleting your posts. THAT is a real sign of insecurity. DaninFW
Did it go over everyone's head or did you not read what contranut posted? He accuses me of pumping and dumping which I have not done. Still holding all shares but may start trading soon. Then, after telling everyone he sold and it was going to crash.........he admits to buying and selling into the repurchase. Anyone dumb enough to fall for his bs and lyingmonger's bs and sold........may have sold your shares at a loss to contranut who then sold them to the company. This should be illegal. G back and read his admission before he deletes the post. What a Basher and Buyer and scam artist.......and he tries to deflect by attacking me again. Pathetic. DaninFW
You do realize that most of my gains on EVC annualized are 22%, right? I think that beats the S&P. The S&P percentage is the same if you are invested in an ETF whether you have $1 or $1 billion dollars invested. If it makes you happy I own the shares at Charles Schwab and Fidelity in six different trading accounts with 3 accounts at each. If there is anyone in DFW area that wants to meet me for lunch I will meet them and show them the filled orders. I will even show you if you ant to come to DFW. I ain't posting anything on any other web site. When are you going to confirm with the board moderator that everyone posting are different people? I can't wait for you to suck that one up. DaninFW