I think I am only posting to myself and Dan but thought I would share some bullets:
1) Got to read the Barron's VMC article also under stock news. Incredible the leverage these companies have with their fixed costs when the market moves in their favor. I can easily see USCR at $45-48 in 2016 especially with their accretive acquisitions. They expect margin on aggregates to almost double in 2 years.
2) The two analysts that follow USCR just lowered Q4 expect from 28 to 25 cents EPS and Q1 from 1 cent to loss of 7 cents. Nuts. The 3 analysts that now follow USCR have upped EPS guidance for 2015 from $2.33 to $2.45. I think they are way off on revenues and even EPS for 2015. The current numbers don't reflect the acquisition announced last week. They are projecting a 15.3% increase off total 2015 sales of $696 million. I can't even remember all the acquisitions made in 2015 that weren't FY numbers. Revenues will be at least $850 million not $802 million. Wouldn't be surprised if they hit $900 million. I see $1 Billion+ in 2016.
3) Q4 report out before market opens Thursday.
4) Whippoorwill just sold more shares and stock still went up. However, they just dropped below 10% Friday to 9.9% so they now only have to file quarterly schedule 13's. IMVHO it has been good that they have been selling. USCR has barely 10 million shares outstanding and this improved the float and made stock available to more investors.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't believe for a minute they sold either but it is possible. I sent you a personal e-mail earlier about what I expect next 10-11 days. DaninFW
This week, Barron's featured Vulcan as a top buy:
"Hill tells Barron’s that Vulcan has “multiple years of double-digit top-line growth” ahead, and is seeing accelerating momentum in pricing. The company has raised prices 22% since 2005.
According to John McPherson, chief financial and strategy officer, demand is “still more than 30% below 40-year trends.” As demand normalizes, he says, Vulcan will far exceed the prior cycle’s peak-demand price of $3.37 of gross profit per ton.
McPherson told analysts at a meeting last week that the company sees $8.25 of gross profit per ton once demand normalizes. He added that Vulcan is targeting more than $2 billion of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at normal demand of 255 million tons.
VULCAN’S FIXED-COST BASE is a drag in a downturn, but a boon when business lifts off. As the housing and infrastructure cycle picks up, 60% to 65% of each additional dollar of sales could drop to the bottom line. “We have a lot of room to run, not only in top-line growth but with huge operating leverage,” Hill says.
On an enterprise basis (market value plus net debt), Vulcan is trading for 15.6 times this year’s estimated $820 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The company projects that Ebitda will reach more than $2 billion in coming years as the construction cycle normalizes. Lane applies an EV/Ebitda multiple of nine—just below historic multiples of 10-11—to estimated normalized Ebitda, to achieve his price target of $127.
Vulcan expects shipments to rise 8% this year, excluding acquisitions, and prices to tick up 6%. Revenue could climb 12%, to $3.4 billion. Wall Street looks for earnings to more than double to $2.04 a share, and rise 60% in 2016, to $3.20. McPherson wants Vulcan to earn back its investment-grade debt rating this year, and grow its dividend, which it slashed to a penny in 2011, and later raised to a dime. He also wants the company to consider share repurchases. He told analysts last week that he expects dividend growth to accelerate throughout the recovery phase, but that Vulcan primarily will return excess cash through share repurchases.
Vulcan needs a construction boom to drive the stock significantly higher, and that is harder to forecast. But the housing market continues to improve, and it is possible that Congress will approve some version of President Barack Obama’s infrastructure initiative. In the meantime, Vulcan is getting its house in order
A lot of things may be adding up soon. I know I have all these conspiracy theories and who knows......WFC may have already sold the shares they bought in Q4.......or they may well have added to them. At the beginning of Q4, EVC shares were less than $4 a share. We only know they bought between 9-01-14 and 12-31-14.......not specific dates. If they bought early in the quarter they may well already have a 40% gain if they have an average cost of $5. Remember, EVC has only paid an average of $5.08 for the 2.5 million shares they have repurchased. IMVHO we will still see WFC adding and perhaps buying a big block to pop over 10%. I believe they will soon ask for board representation due to EVC's dismal financial performance. And, at some point when they have 15-20% they will probably approach EVC management about going private......unless EVC management pulls the trigger first. WFC may well be the financing behind a buy out. It just makes sense for EVC to buy back as many cheap shares before announcement and for WFC to buy as many in the open market before approaching big holders. May not sound like much but let's say WFC gets 20% of shares at an average cost of $7.50 including over 4.2 million already bought at probably below $5 average.....and they make an offer of $10........the 18 million shares they bought at $7.50 just saved them $45 million. I see a strategy of keeping stock price down till they accumulate 9.9% and then offer $8+/- to a large holder....and bam they are at 15-20% cheap. Going to be fun soon IMVHO. DaninFW
Something interesting I found today. West Face is being sued in Canada by Catalyst over a breach of management contract where West Face hired an executive from Catalyst over the investment of WF in Wind Wireless, the fourth largest wireless provider in Canada. It seems WF backed the founder of Wind in taking the company private. The lawsuit also is asking that the courts prevent West Face from participating in the Canadian Spectrum Auction next week, 3-03-15. Here we have a company interested in spectrum and helping take a company private. HMMMMMMMMM. Might get interesting. DaninFW
Dan, I also have to add that our USCR warrants have pretty much doubled in last few months. I keep buying and they keep going up. I'm at about 70,000 now of the USCXW's and USCRW's. I thought I was crazy buying 4,949 more USCRW's at $8.96 to $9.01 last week but they closed above $10 on Friday. They should hit $20 by year end. I have traded some in the past year but continued to add. The 30,000 +/- that I bought in the 3's a few months ago on the USCXW's almost hit $8 Friday. And I still have all those from bankruptcy court that are now worth about double my initial loss. Wonders never cease. DaninFW
The other issue is that the analysts have not been fooled. These idiots have tried to hide and deflect from real issues. In reality, the retrans revenue increase of $4.2 million and most if not all the $9+ million in political was give me's. A third party booked the political. The extra revenues which was over $13 million cost EVC zero dollars in extra payroll. Yes, they had to pay a third party commission probably but the point is........EVC should have REDUCED expenses by at least 10-13% in broadcast. You don't need to spend extra payroll when the revenues are incrementally gained, i.e. retrans. Even if the extra political cost the same expense, the retrans didn't. Expenses should have been down 4% regardless. Now, we have a situation where they are going into a non-political off year with expenses loaded to the brim. That's why well managed companies have a lot of part timers where they can adjust payroll when sales slow down. It appears EVC only hires incompetent full time employees that get rewarded with pay increases for sub-level performance. DaninFW
I have to first say that future results in revenues and EPS will have little effect on EVC stock price unless it looks like they are missing by large numbers. It's about unlocking the spectrum value. However, I get real irritated by incompetency and poor performance. Just wanted to show why a fund like WFC could take over this company and dramatically improve the value of current assets much less spectrum.
Management has talked for years about their double digit increases in digital and mobile. It turns out their there entire digital and mobile revenues for 2014 were only $6.644 million and that includes 6.5 months of Pulpo revenues or over $6 million. They barely did a half million in 2014 without Pulpo. I remember they hired two new VP's about a year or so ago for this division. This means all the time they were talking about how great of a job they were doing it was just a few thousand dollars each quarter. Incredible.
Now, they say they are tracking double digit this quarter. Let's say 20% growth. Even with Pulpo that's under a million dollars. Nothing. They did $165.472 million in broadcast and $69.922 million in radio. Just a 1% growth in these would be $1.65 million plus in broadcast and $700K in radio. Imagine a 5% increase! Looks to me like they need to clean house. They are giving pay increases to people that can't even beat the previous years numbers. Don't forget retrans was up $4.2 million in 2014. These idiots are chasing peanuts. Someone please takeover this company and hire people that know what they are doing.
Thanks. I forgot to mention that. They kept FY 2015 and 2016 the same as well. I see little impact from anything reported in future unless they really crash the numbers. However, they should make the 4 cents. Radio is up 11% for 2/3 of quarter and mobile/digital up double digits. That could be 11% or 51% however. Means almost nothing. They did say thru 2 months revenues are up low single digits in total.
Well said. Smart money knew what to expect after sector conference calls. The lowering of expect is priced in IMVHO. I keep saying this. EVC is a spectrum play. We should all bet against management in the future. The only thing that will take EVC down permanently IMVHO is if spectrum auction gets canceled or changes are made to it that negatively impact EVC. I also have said this for months but I believe the current shareholders except possibly management won't ever see the true value of spectrum. I think WFC is going to be very active and aggressive in going after management changes and unlocking spectrum value. If they don't someone else will. There are billions up for grabs here. Management may well put the company in play with an LBO. I have also said that several times. We may see $6 again but I think we will see $10 in next few months. JMVHO.
Just saw this morning where Q1 expect for EVC dropped from 5 to 4 cents. At SBGI they lowered from 45 to 40 cents and at MEG they clobbered it and lowered from 9 cents to just 1 cent. As I said, the CFO at MEG needs to be fired. Main reason for sector weakness yesterday. May carryover Monday.
Actually, there were three of the top five holders that dumped shares in Q4. However, there was actually a net gain in institutional holders:
60 added 4,412,801 shares
50 sold 3,780,596 shares
17 bought 1,581,256
Sold Out Positions
8 sold out 738,457
However, short interest also increased almost 370,000 shares as reported yesterday.
With everything going on yesterday, I forgot to mention that short interest dropped from 1-31-5 to 2-13-15 from 2,465,506 shares to 2,111,079 shares......almost 350,000 shares. This makes four reports in a row where short interest continues to drop. Shorts are covering. DaninFW
The average price of all shares traded today was $6.8651......pretty incredible. From $7 to $6.10 with most trading in the narrow range I mentioned before. This was also the last trading day of the month and the price that was used for any stock purchase savings plans. Interesting. DaninFW
To finish, I would rather have 10% of two million instead of 40% of $200K. In the call they also kept talking about how mobile was the fastest growing segment in their business. Then they admitted that mobile was just 25% of Pulpo numbers. That means it's only $950K in total revenue. That's less than $4 million a year. That's less than 2% of their total revenues. My 10 year old grand daughter could do better than that. They can't even manage their core business.....if they even know what their core business is.........boy, I could go on and on, but again, it's a spectrum play. These guys need to close shop and sell the spectrum. It's obvious even the radio business is worth little or nothing with these idiots running it.
IMVHO there is a big player going after EVC. This is a small fish worth the cost of a whale. WFC could get 25% control of EVC for an investment of about $150 million which is nothing to them. I think we will be hearing from them again at the latest next schedule 13 filings when they will have to show their hand. A $150 million investment could easily return a half billion. I can't believe 2 or 3 funds aren't going after it. If WFC can buy a large block from Univision or the #1 holder it's a new ball game. The problem with MEG is that the CFO didn't even understand his numbers. The hedge fund guy that has the largest position in MEG said they were going after more acquisitions. The current management team can't even handle what they have. That scares the hell out of investors, The problem with EVC is communication and transparency. They also play a smoke and mirrors game. They could learn from others. When they do their press release they need to break down in writing what they are doing for guidance. For instance, they need to say we are projecting radio revenues from $16.5 -$17.0 million, projecting broadcast revenues from $45-$46 million and digital and mobile from $3.6-$3.8 million.. Then add in retrans of $6.5-$6.7 million. Add the totals and do the same for expense lines. One of the analysts didn't know that EVC put political into national ads. But, to me, where was state races? Another thing I harped on for over a year was how they used to report digital and mobile. They always gave "was up 42%" as an example but never dollars. Now, they say they have added digital and mobile to Pulpo numbers. So, if Pulpo did $3.8 million last quarter, how much was digital and mobile of that? Makes the Pulpo acquisition not look that good. They are also hiding the true results of radio as you mentioned. It's apparent now that digital and mobile results really sucked. A high percentage of a low base means nothing. DaninFW
Look at the graph for today. In the last 4 hours, EVC traded in a 2-3 cent range from $6.85 to $6.87 and last two hours between $6.85 and $6.86. Don't remember that ever happening. Someone is buying and putting it away. DaninFW