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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 80 posts  |  Last Activity: May 29, 2016 10:29 AM Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • Reply to

    Q2

    by daninfw04 May 28, 2016 9:48 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 29, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    I posted two messages that Yahoo deleted. This was the second one:
    Just want to reiterate that the issue of no credit markets was old news. It was the abrupt change in plans and direction of HOV. The worst presentation I have ever seen left the analysts wondering what the hell happened. The analysts knew that someone had yanked Ara's chain and said "enough". Three analysts have a 2 cent target and one has a zero cent target. Actual consensus is 1.5 cents but everyone is looking for two cents. I am going out on a limb but I would not be surprised to see a dime+. I actually think they will blow away EPS expect. It is revenues that are pie in the sky. The answer is also not getting to a billion in sales. For that to happen you would see massive impairments and write offs. They must raise margins and cut expenses. I don't think Ara is capable of running that kind of company.
    The stock tanked because company abruptly changed direction with no apparent plan. Had nothing to do with debt markets being closed. Ara has said that for at least three reports in a row that the high yield market was closed to HOV. Rossi- you need to go back and read again the last three reports. I have no trouble reading. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2

    by daninfw04 May 28, 2016 9:48 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 28, 2016 5:47 PM Flag

    I just want to reiterate that the issue of no credit markets was old news. It was the abrupt change in plans and direction of HOV. The worst presentation I have ever seen left the analysts wondering what the hell happened. The analysts knew that someone had yanked Ara's chain and said "enough". Three analysts have a 2 cent target and one has a zero cent target. Actual consensus is 1.5 cents but everyone is looking for two cents. I am going out on a limb but I would not be surprised to see a dime+. I actually think they will blow away EPS expect. It is revenues that are pie in the sky. The answer is also not getting to a billion in sales. For that to happen you would see massive impairments and write offs. They must raise margins and cut expenses. I don't think Ara is capable of running that kind of company. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 28, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    Guys and gals, I am a believer in HOV but we need to be aware that the analysts have set HOV up again to get blasted on Thursday. After Q1 report they blasted the stock but then raised revenue estimates from $620 million to 643 million which is a 37.1% increase in revenues from Q2 last year. Remember they had a huge revenue increase in Q1 but just happened to miss by a million or so and they killed the stock. The analysts were so concerned for the future of HOV they raised the EPS estimate from break even to 2 cents......so remember we could actually come in with a 36% revenue increase and make 1 cent and the stock could get clobbered. I also just noticed that they lowered the EPS expect for 2016 by one cent and for 2017 by 2 cents. Makes a lot of sense right? Raising quarterly numbers but lowering FY numbers. What kind of math is that? I started buying this in the $2.30's and loaded up around $1.39 and finally in the black again. Still holding 700,000 shares but am concerned about how the analysts appear to be killing the stock price. If HOV can beat those astronomical revenue numbers and makeable EPS numbers HOV could pop 50 cents especially if cash on hand is growing and they present a credible debt repayment plan. I do believe the other real concern is future revenue growth. I suspect what they unveiled at the last presentation about letting other companies buy their land and option it out to them may allow them to pay down debt and still grow the company. Should be the most important call and report yet. I plan to hold all shares going into call but antsy. What happens if they earn 4 cents and beat EPS by 2 cents and then only have 36% revenue increase? It's a crazy world. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings release date

    by ladaclay May 26, 2016 4:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 26, 2016 9:41 PM Flag

    Report is about a week early. I agree that it looks like they want to keep momentum going. Also, hopefully to show they now have a plan.. Q1 presentation scared everyone. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 26, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Pending Homes Sales just out. Up 5.1% which is the highest in over a decade.......can we handle any more good news? If Management doesn't let us down in a few weeks we could easily be in the 2's again finally......DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Still can't break 1.79..

    by tronolonemichael May 24, 2016 9:36 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 25, 2016 8:22 AM Flag

    More good news this morning. Mortgage apps up all due to new home buying last week.......The trend continues in May. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 24, 2016 9:18 AM Flag

    TOL blew away all expectations today. Beat earnings, revenue, backlog and margin expectations. Up 5% in pre-market. If new home sales exceed we could be off to the races today. HOV looks strong in pre-market as well. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Concept

    by daninfw04 May 22, 2016 10:40 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 23, 2016 7:02 PM Flag

    What I don't know is if they have done this before and if this is just an entry into a new market for this type building. If it's a first they are behind the curve. They recently 6-12- months ago hired a bunch of new Division Heads some of which had been top executives and even Presidents of other companies. Perhaps new blood.......DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 23, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    New Home Sales for April will be out first thing in the morning. Regional reports out sooner last few days have all been the best since 2008. Numbers came out on Monday last month so I was off a day. Tomorrow will be big one way or the other IMVHO. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Concept

    by daninfw04 May 22, 2016 10:40 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 23, 2016 3:09 PM Flag

    I just think it's another way to build houses without tying up a lot of upfront money in land and lots. I suspect margins are actually higher and these homes built within certain mile radiuses. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Concept

    by daninfw04 May 22, 2016 10:40 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 22, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    continued.....
    "When it comes time to purchase a new home, sales associates offer upfront, clear expectations of the homebuying process and timeline to ensure that homebuyers are at complete ease every step of the way. “K. Hovnanian® Homes is committed to quality and takes great pride in delivering a 100 percent complete, inspected and move-in ready home,” said Vannoy. “We also provide thorough New Home Orientations by knowledgeable New Home Professionals once the process is complete.”

    Build On Your Lot homes are priced from the $120s. Prospective homebuyers who are interested in building on their lot are encouraged to visit the new Youngstown Design Studio, which is located at 425 North Bailey Road in North Jackson, Ohio. The studio is open seven days a week: Monday through Saturday from 10am to 6pm and Sunday from 12pm to 5pm."

    Looks like a way to cut back on buying a bunch of land........DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 22, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    Youngstown, Ohio (PRWEB) May 21, 2016
    K. Hovnanian® Homes’ Build On Your Lot (BOYL) division drew nearly 100 people to its new Youngstown Design Studio Launch Party and Ribbon Cutting Ceremony on May 17th in North Jackson, Ohio. Members of K. Hovnanian® Homes, as well as Youngstown committee members, local dignitaries, realtors, trade partners and preferred lenders were present at the event. The new BOYL design studio will officially open to the public today, May 21st, 2016, from noon to 3 pm.
    “The highly anticipated launch of our completely re-imagined Youngstown Design Studio was extremely well received by the local community,” said Chuck Vannoy, Division President of K. Hovnanian® Homes Build On Your Lot Division. “Attendees were in complete admiration of the level of quality and the unique vision that went into the creation of this Design Studio. It is unlike anything most people have ever seen before.”
    Upon entering the Youngstown Design Studio, guests are greeted with a handcrafted reception space, dramatic ceilings, sleek lines, custom built-in cabinetry with home selections and playful full wall imagery. “We incorporated a mix of wall vinyl and dimensional panels so guests can casually make their way in and around the space at their own pace,” said Vannoy. “Our goal was to reinforce the fact that you don’t have to sacrifice your dreams when it comes to building a new home.”
    The Youngstown Design Studio allows prospects to select their new home design and personalize it with design selections all in one location. Featured home designs offer between 1,300 sq. ft. to over 3,600 sq. ft. of living space, and are customizable to fit the needs of the families who live in them. All homes offer state-of-the-art technologies with modern conveniences and premium functionality. “Home designs include family-friendly open floor plans with timeless details, fantastic curb appeal and impressive architecture,” Vannoy said. “These homes are destined to inspire for generations.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yesterday"s Presentation

    by daninfw04 May 18, 2016 11:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 20, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    I actually agree with you....but the recent change in direction shows that Ara is no longer "in charge." The bankers are now in charge. There is a $2 billion dollar issue now that they have said must be addressed. Even the smallest bank loans might not get renewed if Ara is in charge. That's the power they have. They don't need to control the vote........just the money. That's one reason I think we are going to see a lot more positive surprises than negative ones. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yesterday"s Presentation

    by daninfw04 May 18, 2016 11:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 18, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    I sure hope we see $2+. It might well get there but IMVHO they will have to do all 3 things:
    1) BEAT EPS expect
    2) BEAT Revenue expect
    3) Show some progress on debt or reveal a plan that is credible.
    I don't think $3+ is a dream. But, many investors are getting tired of their weak past efforts. There was a net loss of about 3.5 million shares on institutional investors with the top three holders all reducing shares for about 3 million shares. It's time to put up. If they don't hit all three numbers, Ara needs to go. That's the only other thing that could catapult this stock. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yesterday"s Presentation

    by daninfw04 May 18, 2016 11:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 18, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    The $25 million was from their SEC filing for their last 10Q where they showed the value of the land before write down and then how much write down. The difference was about $25 million. The actual sell was about 2-3 weeks later. As for HOVNP I researched a year or so back and felt HOV was the way to go. You can google several articles where the HOVNP initial buyers got screwed. The fine print does not require HOV to pay dividends. As long as they don't pay on common stock they don't have to pay any on the HOVNP. The only way IMVHO it might be worth $25 again is if there was a buyout and not 100% certain on that. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The presentation yesterday was much more informative than the one a few days before. Some bullets:
    1) Ara said he looked forward to update investors on their progress in a few weeks.
    2) Ara said hard part was behind them and he felt they would easily and comfortably meet their debt repayments.
    3) They paid off the 5-15-16 bonds on Monday.
    4) Only about $200 million left to pay in next two years and very little due after that till 2020.
    5) Expects to get debt ratio down to 50% within a few years and down to 30% within a few more years.
    6) Expect to reverse NOL's in 2016 or 2017 at the latest. May do in two parts but hope to do in one if earnings are substantive.
    7) Future land banking will be different. They plan to find locations and then go to land bankers to let them buy the land and then they will take out options. No debt incurred on balance sheet.
    8) More and more land bankers are coming to the party. Plenty of opportunity.
    9) Are using more of the non-recourse loans as well which are better rates.
    This company is not going bankrupt. It may be 12-24 months before we see the numbers we would like to see but no doubt in my mind this will be a $3-5 stock in 12-24 months. And yes, about a year later than I first thought. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 16, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    Tomorrow might be a little more interesting than last presentation. There was an article where DR Horton and Lennar bought the 158 lots from HOV just weeks after HOV announced they were pulling out. That was only about $25 million but still cash. Also, no question now they retired the 5-15-16 bonds due yesterday. Housing starts and new permits for April in the morning an hour before market opens........Big Day coming. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ladaclay

    by daninfw04 May 10, 2016 7:59 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    I only post a little now days as 12-13 of us have pretty much formed an e-mail group where we communicate daily. You would recognize most of them from the EVC, GTN, SBGI, etc. broadcast boards. We got tired of all the whackos and Yahoo. We are able to e-mail and post things Yahoo will not allow. I only allow those I know that have posted a year or more. If interested give me an e-mail address and I will send you mine and what it takes to join the group. You can delete your e-mail after I respond. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Ladaclay

    by daninfw04 May 10, 2016 7:59 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2016 8:40 AM Flag

    Thanks. Pretty much my thoughts. I have never been an Ara fan but also feel he will do what it takes to enrich himself. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 10, 2016 7:59 PM Flag

    You recently posted that you had bought HOV. You have been a bear on HOV for around 8years+/-. Why the change? You and I have often disagreed but I know you have great insight into this sector having been an executive in it. Thoughts? DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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