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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 512 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 7, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    Tweets started 15 hours ago pumping EVC as a purely speculative spectrum play........"get in while you can". If we pop $1-2 next week.....might consider trading but not looking for anything less than $8 at this time. Again, I will always maintain a large position......just trading the pops. If we get some real articles pumping sector next week.......we will explode IMVHO. In hindsight, I now suspect gekkonut may have been bashing the stock and getting paid for it to drive some downward volume so his masters could load up. Didn't work as holders were too smart. I have been talking about a catalyst for some time. If this isn't it......I can't imagine what else it could be......other than auction itself. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 7, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    I just posted on the GTN board that GTN spectrum is now worth $4.857 BILLION.....up from just $446 million estimate a few months ago. Over 1,000% increase in estimated value. Hope everyone is wearing their rocket suits next week. Already seeing local articles. When some analysts finally quit talking about things that don't matter and talk about real issues we will pop this next week. Everyone is concerned about national ads when they are being almost 100% made up on scatter and local ads........and all broadcasters are now in mobile and digital that is increasing phenomenally. Guess what? National ads are down because they are spending on digital and mobile......duh. The broadcasters are still getting it.......just on another revenue line. Where do they find these idiots????

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I just calculated the spectrum value for GTN based on new numbers released Friday evening. Based on the Greenhill previously released GTN's spectrum was only worth $446 million. The new numbers now show $4.857 Billion........more than a 1,000% increase. Augusta jumped from $25 million to $220 million. Waco jumped from $63 million to $320 million. Tallahassee from $10 million to $150 million. Knowville from $27 million to $260 million. South Bend from $65 million to $250 million. Charlottesville from $39 million to $230 million. I'm just naming a few. Who wants to be in the broadcast business when your spectrum is worth almost $5 billion. Entire sector is now worth more dead than alive. This sector is going to pop this next week. Put your seatbelts on and enjoy the rocket ride. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 7, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    Local broadcaster Kevin Adell’s potential payday for selling his independent TV station keeps getting bigger.

    The Federal Communications Commission has significantly increased its expected opening bid for Adell’s WADL TV-38 in Clinton Township to a maximum of $380 million with a median price of $360 million.

    That’s up from a possible $170 million last year.

    The revised estimate comes from a new report issued this month on behalf of the FCC by New York investment firm Greenhill & Co. LLC.

    The FCC in early 2016 will auction portions of the powerful 600-MHz UHF over-the-air broadcast spectrum from TV stations to mobile wireless providers that need more airwaves bandwidth to satisfy customer demand.

    The Greenhill report doesn’t specifically say why the starting bid estimates have skyrocketed, but it likely stems from the most recent FCC auction for different parts of the wireless spectrum.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCC Just Upped Opening Spectrum Prices

    by daninfw04 Feb 6, 2015 4:44 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 6, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    After what I just read I may well hold as well. This is what I call funny money. Unreal. In any parallel universe the spectrum for EVC is worth a billion for starters. That's just the cost for sitting down at the table. They have two stations alone they could sell for a billion.....actually $1,030,000,000 but who cares about the extra $30 million? The top four stations owned by EVC are worth $2.2 BILLION. They are all four Univision stations so they could just channel share, still have the stations and just keep $1.1 Billion in free cash. So many decisions..........nice problem to have, huh? However, I don't think these four stations could make $2.2 billion in profit in 100 years. It's what I call a no-brainer. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I just looked at the new proposed maximum spectrum values the FCC is now floating. The new value for EVC is just $5.42 billion for them to sell all their spectrum and walk away. That's only $60.22 per share. They would still own the radio, digital and mobile businesses. Oh yea, they would have to pay off $360 million in debt and those businesses would be debt free. Think this sector might just pop next week????
    Orlando was worth $85 million now $350 million. Boston was just worth $140 million now $540 million. Washington D.C. was just $140 million now $490 million. Tampa was just worth $71 million now $400 million. San Diego dropped from $250 to just $220 million now. Colorado Springs from $25 million to $190 million. Denver went from $33 million to $250 million. Las Vegas from $15 to $150 million. Stations that were worth nothing are now popoing. Reno from just $4 million to $43 million. They have a Reno LPTV station worth nothing. They could relocate Univision to it, shut down CW46 and keep $43 million. Wichita Kansas was only worth $8 million now $110 million. Corpus Christi from $4 to $52 million. They also have a LPTV station in Washington D.C. worth nothing. The station in Washington D.C. worth $490 million is broadcasting Independent 68........a no brainer for a half billion. They have a LPTV station in Las Vegas worth nothing as well. They could shut down UNIMAS27 and move Univision to it and pocket $150 million. The possibilities are endless. No question they could raise over a billion and have zero effect on the business. They can also raise half the $5.42 billion by simply agreeing to channel share and give half the $5.42 billion to the station letting them share. That was clarified today as well. Easily $3 billion by walking away from non-Univision stations and channel sharing. Only a fool would short this sector. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just in time for its first incentive auction road show (Feb. 9), the FCC is providing TV stations with estimates for the commission's opening bids in the upcoming auctions, which FCC officials insist is on track for early 2016.

    Last October, the FCC released released estimates of projected high and median payouts to give broadcasters a sense of the financial upside of giving up some or all of their spectrum. The FCC has taken into account the success of the AWS-3 spectrum auction and has upped those estimates and, for the first time, is providing estimated opening bid and median bid prices for the auction.

    The new auction information, a revision of the October briefing book from investment banker Greenhill & Co., is available here.

    According to the new figures, the proposed opening bid price for New York is $870 million (maximum) and $660 million (median); $630 million and $560 in LA, and $610 million and $520 million in Chicago.

    The maximum bid price is based on an actual station in a market that would command that price if it gave up spectrum— the FCC is not identifying which. The median value means there are an equal number of stations with valuations higher and lower than that figure. But those are opening bids, so they are likely to drop given auction competition.

    Each station will have a unique opening bid based on its value in clearing and repacking spectrum based on various factors; the FCC will give that information to stations but is not making it public, which is why it is providing figures only for maximums and medians.

    There will likely be multiple winners in larger markets as well as smaller markets adjacent to larger ones.

    Broadcasters will get the same money for giving up spectrum and sharing with another station as they will to give it up and get out of the business, though they will be sharing that money with the station they will be teaming up with. "There is a lot of money to be had by each individual broadcaster," said an FCC official briefing reporters.

    There are actually three options: relinquishing spectrum and getting out of the business, relinquishing and sharing, and moving from a UHF to a VHF channel. Those who agree to move will not get as much money, some 20% to 33% less for moving to a low V, but as much as half to two-thirds less for moving to a high V.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    More Support

    by daninfw04 Feb 6, 2015 11:05 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 6, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    This refers to the May "proposal" not the date of the auction. This wireless mic deal is a real issue. At out church where I am a trustee we had a real issue with the local fire department and the wireless mic we were using was interfering with their communications. We had to spend about $10,000 for a new system/band. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 6, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Count the chief operating officer of WRNN-TV Kingston, N.Y., to those who are potentially interested in participating in the upcoming incentive auction.

    According to an ex parte filing with the FCC, WRNN COO Christian French is calling on the FCC to keep to its early 2016 auction timetable and to "properly recognize the extraordinary value of the spectrum," including upping the estimates given the success of the AWS-3 spectrum auction, which generated almost $45 billion in bids, more than twice early estimates.

    French's station is one of those that would appear an ideal candidate for channel sharing— an independent "that serves a substantial majority of households in the nation's largest media market."

    French also wants the FCC to "modify or replace the proposal for dynamic reserve pricing, and greatly enhance transparency, consistent with statutory obligations for confidentiality," so that broadcasters can engage in necessary and reasonable price discovery expected by participants in any auction process.

    The Expanding Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition has been making similar requests of the FCC in light of AWS-3 and what it sees as needed tweaks to the auction framework and, in fact, EOBC Executive Director Preston Padden was cited in French's letter.

    Members of the EOBC coalition do not have to identify themselves, even in ex partes, but French did, though he did not mention other "auction eligible" stations who apparently share his interest in auction changes.

    The letter from French comes only days before the FCC is to hold its first incentive auction road show seminar Feb. 9, with New York area sessions scheduled for Feb. 11, 12, and 13.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "CEMEX’s operations in the United States reported net sales of U.S.$923 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, up 13% from the same period in 2013. Operating EBITDA increased 78% to U.S.$138 million in the quarter, versus U.S.$77 million in the same quarter of 2013."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • NEW ROCHELLE, NY--(Marketwired - Feb 4, 2015) - As more traditional content providers move toward offering stand-alone, over-the-top (OTT) subscription video on demand (SVOD) services, many industry pundits are predicting the demise of traditional television viewership and multichannel services, declaring that the era of a la carte is finally here. New data from Horowitz Research, however, indicates that these changes in the industry represent growth and opportunities for all players.
    The overwhelming majority of multiplatform viewers who have both multichannel service and OTT SVOD services are not ready to give up easy access to broadcast programming, even when presented with the option of adding stand-alone, a la carte SVOD services like the new services offered by HBO, Showtime and CBS. Among multiplatform viewers who have multichannel service, 75% rate access to broadcast networks as a top advantage of having multichannel, and two-thirds (66%) say that broadcast primetime dramas and/or comedies are essential. Conversely, among multiplatform viewers who do not have multichannel, 38% rate not having access to broadcast networks as a top disadvantage of being OTT-only; half (50%) say broadcast primetime dramas and/or comedies are essential."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 5, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    Sector looks strong today as well. Should be nice up day for EVC and sector unless market crashes again. IMVHO we are starting to see momentum again. Yesterday, someone was selling 5,000 to 8,000 shares several times and EVC would drop 1-3 cents and then come back within a minute or two. Someone was definitely accumulating yesterday even with the dismal volume. I saw at least 3 times yesterday where not one share traded for 10-12 minutes. Don't remember ever seeing that. EVC is building some strong support. If we pop above $7 this time the new range may be $6.50-$7.50.........but a pop is coming. Shorts soon to be fried. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Getting to be more and more obvious that broadcasters are getting excited about spectrum auction. NAB has now gotten behind it as well.......with CBS and FOX now publicly on board. They have now realized that all the billions of almost free money is going to pay off their balance sheets and give them billions for M&A. I predict that the ones remaining will gobble up the rest in a feeding frenzy. Going to be the best sector to invest in next 6-18 months. Shorts will soon be fried. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "Carey: Spectrum Numbers 'Pretty Interesting'

    Acknowledging that key details of the FCC’s upcoming spectrum auction still remain to "get fleshed out," 21st Century Fox President Chase Carey says that, "we've got a lot of stations and a lot of spectrum. We're certainly fully engaged."

    By Price Colman

    TVNewsCheck, February 4, 2015 7:22 PM EST

    21st Century Fox is taking a hard look at the FCC's proposed spectrum incentive auction, President-COO Chase Carey says.

    "It's certainly something we're taking seriously, we're engaged in," said Carey during Wednesday's earnings conference call with analysts. "Some of the numbers that get thrown around are pretty interesting."

    When the FCC issued the Greenhill & Co. report last fall, it pegged the value of broadcast spectrum that could be sold at auction at $45 billion. That got a lot of attention from broadcasters across the board, including some previously not interested in selling.

    It also prompted some to question not just the numbers but whether the auction process itself might mean those estimates are optimistic.

    Acknowledging that key details of the auction still remain to "get fleshed out," Carey noted that, "we've got a lot of stations and a lot of spectrum. We're certainly fully engaged and there are a number of signs that say it could be interesting."

    Fox has duopolies in 11 of the top 24 markets, making it a prime candidate for monetizing some of its spectrum."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EVC Calls

    by matts4 Feb 4, 2015 12:04 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 4, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Not big on options but if EVC was to go way down it might be something I look at. The August $7.50's are about 70 cents right now. If you can even buy them. I think a 12% premium is kind of high. I have thought about if EVC was to get to say $8 and we get a $10 strike price.......for early in 2016......might be the way to control a lot more stock right at the spectrum auction. Many factors to look at.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 4, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    "The Expanding Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition met Feb. 3 with FCC staffers to ask them to raise the opening bid prices on TV stations in the incentive auction, and to change its valuation of stations.

    According to an ex parte filing on the meeting, The EOBC's executive director and representatives of some of the members —they do not have to identify themselves— met with Internet Auction Task Force chair Gary Epstein and other senior staffers to make their pitch.

    They said that the FCC should recalculate —as in increase— its opening prices given the record-breaking prices for the AWS-3 auction. It also said that the commission can't justify hundreds-of-millions-of-dollar differences in pricing for stations with nearly the same impact on the station repacking process, which the coalition has always argued should be the standard, rather than figuring in population served, which the coalition says results in the greatest loss of TV service.

    They proposed a number of alternative factors all based on that clearing potential, including "frequency at which a station is frozen in repeated auction simulations, the relative value of spectrum precluded by a given station, and the population precluded by a given station."

    EOBC says a compromise path would be to reduce the weight of a station's interference-free population., which would encourage greater participation by broadcasters.

    The coalition urged the FCC to provide more information during the reverse auction, including pricing. "The disparity between the amount of information that the Commission intends to provide during the forward and reverse auctions is particularly striking, given that the broadcast market has a much more competitive market structure than mobile broadband," they told the FCC.

    Finally, they said the FCC should keep to the early 2016 timetable for the auction and said wireless carriers will be able to bid aggressively."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 4, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    The last two reports by GCI and DIS confirmed what we already knew.....that national ads have been weak. But, the surprise has been that local advertising and what they call "scatter" has been able to make up the gap. Digital and mobile continue to drive other revenues and retrans just keeps climbing. Sector and EVC are popping again today. One analyst I follow had predicted that scatter and local advertising would make up the difference. More local ads will thrive as well with cheap gas. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Shorts have got to be ready to jump out the windows now. EVC has below average volume for over a week now.......with no big sellers. Any catalyst and they are going to be fried. Just the daily good news for the sector is adding fuel to the future bond fire. Going to be spectacular.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 4, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    This is second time I have posted this. Yahoo deleted again. I posted before market opened. DIS reported blowout revenues and earnings at close yesterday. Stock is at all time highs and up 8% now. Boy, did gekkoboy get it wrong again. He said sector would crash with earnings reports this week. DIS reported broadcast revenues up 11 and operating income up 35% for ABC network. It's one thing to predict a stock at $6.30 going to $6.00 when it trades in a 4-6% range most days and the futures are down 200 points......and it's another to say EVC will be $4 in another 7 weeks. Boy, talking about looking stupid. Glad he's on ignore. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • EVC once again outperformed SBGI, MEG, NXST and tied GTN today. GCI, not a pure broadcast play, was up 6%. Our resident board idiot last week predicted a total collapse in this sector. Many of us have said that the broadcasters would exceed expectations far more than they miss. Content providers are a different breed. Radio, which has been somewhat of an albatross, is now in vogue once again. I will reiterate, the Piolin deal is going to continue to add revenues and profits to the bottom line. The low volume and upward movement in price says the weak hands are about gone. Anyone shorting now will probably get fried unless they are just going for nickels and dimes. The 3 million shorts had a small chance to cover some and didn't. I expect another catalyst vey soon that should take this above $7.......and depending on catalyst will launch EVC or we will see more short selling. The big money and smart money isn't shorting at these levels. I would add that Obamacare is filling the airwaves with commercials. I can't have the tv on for more than 5 minutes without hearing 2-3 commercials. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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