Rite Aid Corporation Message Board

I traded this sector many times since the 2-20-13 post. I am 90% cash right now. I missed a runup but made plenty. Am concerned about overall market right now. Have been for some time. I like to buy assets at 1/3 to 1/2 real value. Not manyy bargains right now. DaninFW

If judge allows the class action to stand they all will be consolidated into just one lawsuit. All of the lawyers are filing hoping to catch the investor with biggest loss so they can end up the lead counsel. That's where the money is. In reality some of these filings could be representing one single share. If you read the lawsuits they are all looking for someone with $150,000 or more in losses. If stock price corrects and gets back above $2.50.....the cases will get dismissed as there are no losses. They are all really going after the insurance money. If company was to actually file bankruptcy shareholders 95% of the time get nothing. The fact that they are filing tells me there will be no bankruptcy. Why chases zero? It's all about billable hours at $800-$1200+ an hour. One of the companies that filed a lawsuit actually announced on the first press release that they were investigating nine companies the same day......that was Lipstitz if I got the spelling right. These are all just ambulance chasers. i also have a feeling the City Council of LA called in some favors to add pressure. I used to be a political lobbyist and saw that all the time. Seen this dozens of times. It's almost orchestrated to have bad news almost every day. It can't keep up. A single positive press release from XIDE would put an end to this. DaninFW

Stakeholders is current term being used which also includes anyone having a stake in the company.......including employees. They would not issue 400 million shares. They would do a 1 for 10 or 1 for 20 reverse split. Secondly, bondholders can only get $600 million for their bonds now and lose $200 million. They have a lot of incentive to come to the table. I too have been throuigh this a few dozen times. The 50+/_ million has even more incentive to negotiate as they are subordinated debt and would fall in line BEHIND the $800 million bond issue. Great timing on the part of XIDE mangement. Shorts are going to take a bath on this one. Far from bankruptcy. All the lawsuits are just to go after insurance money. Cases will be dismissed when they do their refi. I would add I don't expect a massive dilution. This might just be to get the $50 million bond issue to the table which is really all the extra cash flow they need. They also need to move the $800 million out several years at more favorable rates. They might give some equity to get that done. Perhaps 25%+/- of the company. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

No big holder unless they own more than 5% have to file a schedule 13 since it traded after Q1 (3-31-13) till 8-15-13. You won't know till 4 months if Norges is selling the other 3+ million shares. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Actually Norges has been dumping big time. They reported today they went from 5.03% to 3.86% in last week or so........they have dumped alpost a million shares. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I saw a similar thing when I was holding Georgia Gulf Bonds and stock. Bondholders got 90% of the company, they did a 10 for 1 reverse split and then within a week, GGC stock tripled and then quintripled within 3 months. The thing one must remember is that if $800 or $850 million in bonds become stock that also increases book value by that same amount. It will also improve cash flow and profit by almost $60 million a year in interest savings. Even if current shareholders get 10% of the company it would probably triple. The incentive for bondholders with bonds at 75 cents on the dollar is to get $800 million in stock for $600 million in debt. I suspect it will be a combination of stock and new debt. DaninFW

They started purchases on 3-26 but just Thursday or Friday they crossed over 5% hence the required filing. My suspicion is that some assets in Europe are on the block to reduce debt and they bought on rumours. DaninFWDaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

It is on Morningside. You just have to move the filing menu to 13G's.....DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

It shows up as news in both my Fidelity and Schwab accounts. You can also pull up SEC filings. Morningstar reported it at 7:25 A.M. ET this morning. I'll see if I can do the link. I usually don't waste my time as Yahoo deletes now 99% of the time. However, it is fact not rumour. Day traders and manipulatorsa are in control next few days....after that, a different story. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I did what I did to average down. It still think risks remain. The Vernon deal could be a negative catalyst if not contained soon. Going to be extremely volatile here. Great for trading. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

They don't have to convert. They can demand the $60 million in cash., However, they are subordinated debt which falls after senior secured debt, then senior unsecured debt, then subordinated debt. They are just above equity holders in bankruptcy. If they try to play hardball they don't have much clout as they are way less than 10% of all outstanding debt. Debtwire is the one that should be sued for posting a false and misleading staement without all the facts. I looked at financials and almost bailed yesterday but I saw where the Asset Based Loan for over $200 million isn't due till January 2015 and the $674,450,000 in bonds aren't due till February 2018. I bought another 150,000 shares between $1.28 and $1.32 yesterday. Now holding 300,000 at average of about $1.90...........glad I didn't bail. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Right after I typed above and the 66,300 block got bought at $2.55 another block of 54,500 at $2.54 popped up and it's almost eaten up now also. Crazy. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

First off, I own 150,000 XIDE and hope you are right, but my understanding is they already had a contract with the navy and this one is for 4 years or about $12 million a year which is squat for a $3 Billion in sales company. It is about a four tenths % sales gain per year if 100% incremental which I don 't think it is. The Pep Boys deal should be accretive. It was not a cold winter everywhere. Texas and much of the southwest had the second mildest winter in 25 years+. They should see about $15 million+./- benefit this quarter from lead costs reduction. Many analysts have said they think the $45 million from Frisco settlement was expected much sooner and will be another 6 months +/- which they have said will reduce capital expenditures that will effect maximizing efficiences next 2 quarters if you care to read the credit report downgrade that came out about 2 weeks ago. The Vernon issue is also hard to calculate but will be downside. If memory serves they are now at about 50% production which will negate some of the $15 million anticipated gain. There will also be accruals for future anticipated charges as well as millions spent in unanticipated repairs. The main furnace in Vernon must be brought in line with EPA new standards. This is why stock price is down. This has set the company back at least 6 months IMVHO. DaninFW

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I wouldn't even begin to explain it now as little if anything has been released as to the exact structuring. They are required to provide holders annual information if I remember correctly by around Feb 15th after tax year ends. It provides info on short term gains, long term gains or even short and long term losses, as well as other gains from conversions, etc.,
However, when I held in my two IRA's another similar stock, AB, Charles Schwab did all the calculations for me. The 30,000 TVL I just bought last Friday I again bought in my 2 IRA's just in the event I was still holding when it transitions. I did own AB before in my personal account at Schwab and it was ridiculous the extra calculations and filings I had to do. Never again. If you don't use Schwab you might ask your broker if they do the same as Schwab. DaninFW

I think overall market is due for pullback. Increased taxes and gas prices will hit the consumer. Sentiment was lowest in 13-14 months when reported Friday. Market always looks ahead 6-12 months. As we get nearer 2014 businesses are going to take a big hit on Obamacare. I moved to cash too quick but now about 90%+ cash again. I have actually been maintaining a position in EXIDE but trading. I want to be in if it spikes quickly but if I can make 4% five times I basically have done the same as if XIDE went from $2.70 to $3.24. If we get good news or a catalyst I will do like I did RAD.....I will average up quickly because XIDE could move very quickly to the upside with limited downside. I wouldn't hesitate now that I am out of RAD to buy another 200,000 shares if it hit $2.50. Just FYI bit I booked almost $12K in profit trading XIDE last 2 weeks. Good luck. DaninFW