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Rite Aid Corporation Message Board

daninfw04 515 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Warrant Update

    by daninfw04 9 hours ago
    daninfw04 daninfw04 4 hours ago Flag

    The warrants represented tremendous leverage when they were $2-3 and still do but it is dwindling. These guys are acquisition bent. I see no asset sales. However, the one kicker would be if someone bought them out and was a much larger company and it was a stock deal. There is actually a formula for that. If anything, that could happen IMVHO. And yes, I will buy on dips but I think much of that may be over. We now have three analysts saying buy when we hardly had even one the last 3-4 years. After their report day after tomorrow, we might get even more attention. DaninFW

  • Thought I would start new thread. I almost dumped 30,000-60,000 shares at the close yesterday when there was a big buyer. I could have bought back today and been $10,000-$12,000 richer and bought the stock back. I could almost be the MM myself. I never said I was selling entire position. I said trade. The guy wanting to buy 60,000 shares before the close yesterday at $6.90 did not change his mind IMVHO. Someone put in a block for sale at the close of 17,000 shares at $6.92 and it got taken out. Perhaps bought by the bidder at $6.90. This morning we had a big seller or.......I suspect the MM went down and took out all the stops. He's playing with all of us today as well. He moved it up again slowly this morning so as not to be so obvious. We also have EVC buying stock. IMVHO they aren't buying at the top. They are buying when it dips to support the price. They only have $7.5 million left as of 2-26-15. That's just barely over a million shares. I suspect in a month or so they will be done and stock will become even more volatile with no bottom support. The technical show that EVC has been "mildly accumulated" last 3 trading sessions. Whoever is adding is very smart and keeping price down while adding. At some point it must jump IMVHO. But, the overall market could also tank. I have not given up on EVC but I also don't ever expect to get more than $10-12 out of it even though someone will get much more. I play a lot more stocks than EVC. My USCR warrants alone are up over $200K last 6-8 weeks. I just want to put some money into GTN and MEG. Those companies will maximize values. The press release yesterday ticked me as well. The promoted the lady from Pulpo to be over the two new VP's they hired last year. EVC said when they hired them they were great. Makes sense right? Again, management spending 80% of their time on 5% of the business. Scares the hell out of me. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Rethinking EVC Again

    by daninfw04 6 hours ago
    daninfw04 daninfw04 4 hours ago Flag

    Lee posted for me but that has always been my point. Someone will take this company out on the cheap before any of us realize the real value......thanks to inept management. DaninFW

  • As many of you know, I have been holding with just a trade or two 220,000 EVC shares for some time now. In the last two days alone I could have made about 15% trading instead of watching the grass grow under EVC. I can wait for it to hit $14 and double my money from current point or I can trade about 8-9 times and make 8-9% each time and also double my money. If I had started it about a month ago I would already be up about 50%. Many of you want to hold LT but there are also NO GUARANTEES IN LIFE. I am just not that patient. I have not been posting recs on this stock for several weeks now as I had already thought about doing this. In the future I will not be reporting ownership or buys or sells. I may trade once a week or three times a day the way EVC trades. I also want to start moving some of this EVC money to GTN on any weakness as I think the management at GTN will do a lot better with their spectrum than EVC. They also potentially have almost $5 billion in spectrum and will do $140 million in political in 2016 versus less than $10 million at EVC. I will still post articles and thoughts but don't want to be accused of pumping or dumping. GLTA. IMVHO we sure all be taking advantage of the manipulation of EVC not just the MM. DaninFW

  • I just got my info back from USCR corporate yesterday. They sent me 39 pages of information pertinent to different issues related to USCR warrants. Very confusing to say the least. For instance, if USCR declares a one time special dividend of $1.00.....then our exercise price would drop the same amount. The exercise price of each warrant would drop $1.00........however, if they just pay regular dividends it does not. If they sell assets for say $56 million and they have 14 million shares outstanding including USCR warrants then the exercise price drops another $4......none of this has ever happened but it could. This example is very much simplified and not exact as many factors can weigh.
    However, in the event of a buy out by another company, LBO, takeover, etc. then the warrants get treated as if warrants had been exercised and we get the difference in exercise price and price paid. From everything I read and discussed on the phone with the para legal at USCR there is no time value. So, we have to be careful not to pay too much time value premium as we will not receive anything extra and stand to lose any premium. But, if USCR gets bought out, IMVHO it will be for a considerable amount more than current price. For instance, stock price was $30.80 yesterday at the close. If someone offered $40 a share we would get $17.31 for each USCXW warrant and $13.32 for each USCRW warrant. Hope that helps. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 10 hours ago Flag

    S&P Capital IQ has Upgraded its Earnings & Dividend Ranking from C to B-

  • Reply to

    Random Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 1, 2015 10:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 2, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    I bought the USCX's up to $7.07 and the USXW's up to $9.01.......little hesitant to ay more even though I was hesitant to make the last buys and they look good now. You're paying less than $2 premium for 2.5 years of remaining time value for the USCRW's. When I bought them last week the time value was only about $1.50........if you use surgical precision you may want to buy. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 2, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    This morning we had a big seller with one block of 28,000 a few minutes after 10 ET at $6.67. I can't believe anyone is getting sucked in by the manipulation. We dropped about a dime at one time with a few hundred shares and sometimes just 100 shares dropping us a penny each time. Hard to believe just a couple thousand shares can knock off $9 million in market value. No question someone is taking this down and accumulating. We moved up quick in the last 30-45 minutes but 3 minutes before the close someone put in a buy order for 60,000 shares at $6.90 and never filled. Should be interesting tomorrow. This thing should pop above $7 at the open tomorrow as it appears we have a big buyer back again. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Random Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 1, 2015 10:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 2, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    I actually called the CFO about 10 days ago and he was out. I talked to a lady who promised to call back last week with the info. She never did, I believe there is a formula for time value above the buy out but could not confirm. If I ever get an answer I will let you know.

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 2, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    I have to say that today is the first day in probably two decades I have been impressed with the BOD's. They have now elected him as a new 9th member. Chainsaw Bob should pop this stock today. I have every confidence he will finally instigate long due changes at PBY's. May buy today if still in low 9's, other wise I will wait for pullback. Changes will take time but this guy is the best in world at what he does........cutting payroll and reducing expenses. He is totally cutthroat. I feel sorry for the employees but shareholders will prosper. I can't wait to see their choice of CEO. If this is any indication it could pop $2 soon. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 1, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    I think I am only posting to myself and Dan but thought I would share some bullets:
    1) Got to read the Barron's VMC article also under stock news. Incredible the leverage these companies have with their fixed costs when the market moves in their favor. I can easily see USCR at $45-48 in 2016 especially with their accretive acquisitions. They expect margin on aggregates to almost double in 2 years.
    2) The two analysts that follow USCR just lowered Q4 expect from 28 to 25 cents EPS and Q1 from 1 cent to loss of 7 cents. Nuts. The 3 analysts that now follow USCR have upped EPS guidance for 2015 from $2.33 to $2.45. I think they are way off on revenues and even EPS for 2015. The current numbers don't reflect the acquisition announced last week. They are projecting a 15.3% increase off total 2015 sales of $696 million. I can't even remember all the acquisitions made in 2015 that weren't FY numbers. Revenues will be at least $850 million not $802 million. Wouldn't be surprised if they hit $900 million. I see $1 Billion+ in 2016.
    3) Q4 report out before market opens Thursday.
    4) Whippoorwill just sold more shares and stock still went up. However, they just dropped below 10% Friday to 9.9% so they now only have to file quarterly schedule 13's. IMVHO it has been good that they have been selling. USCR has barely 10 million shares outstanding and this improved the float and made stock available to more investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    West Face

    by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 3:12 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 1, 2015 9:09 AM Flag

    I don't believe for a minute they sold either but it is possible. I sent you a personal e-mail earlier about what I expect next 10-11 days. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    This week, Barron's featured Vulcan as a top buy:
    "Hill tells Barron’s that Vulcan has “multiple years of double-digit top-line growth” ahead, and is seeing accelerating momentum in pricing. The company has raised prices 22% since 2005.

    According to John McPherson, chief financial and strategy officer, demand is “still more than 30% below 40-year trends.” As demand normalizes, he says, Vulcan will far exceed the prior cycle’s peak-demand price of $3.37 of gross profit per ton.

    McPherson told analysts at a meeting last week that the company sees $8.25 of gross profit per ton once demand normalizes. He added that Vulcan is targeting more than $2 billion of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at normal demand of 255 million tons.

    VULCAN’S FIXED-COST BASE is a drag in a downturn, but a boon when business lifts off. As the housing and infrastructure cycle picks up, 60% to 65% of each additional dollar of sales could drop to the bottom line. “We have a lot of room to run, not only in top-line growth but with huge operating leverage,” Hill says.

    On an enterprise basis (market value plus net debt), Vulcan is trading for 15.6 times this year’s estimated $820 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The company projects that Ebitda will reach more than $2 billion in coming years as the construction cycle normalizes. Lane applies an EV/Ebitda multiple of nine—just below historic multiples of 10-11—to estimated normalized Ebitda, to achieve his price target of $127.

    Enlarge Image
    cat


    Vulcan expects shipments to rise 8% this year, excluding acquisitions, and prices to tick up 6%. Revenue could climb 12%, to $3.4 billion. Wall Street looks for earnings to more than double to $2.04 a share, and rise 60% in 2016, to $3.20. McPherson wants Vulcan to earn back its investment-grade debt rating this year, and grow its dividend, which it slashed to a penny in 2011, and later raised to a dime. He also wants the company to consider share repurchases. He told analysts last week that he expects dividend growth to accelerate throughout the recovery phase, but that Vulcan primarily will return excess cash through share repurchases.

    Vulcan needs a construction boom to drive the stock significantly higher, and that is harder to forecast. But the housing market continues to improve, and it is possible that Congress will approve some version of President Barack Obama’s infrastructure initiative. In the meantime, Vulcan is getting its house in order

  • Reply to

    West Face

    by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 3:12 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    A lot of things may be adding up soon. I know I have all these conspiracy theories and who knows......WFC may have already sold the shares they bought in Q4.......or they may well have added to them. At the beginning of Q4, EVC shares were less than $4 a share. We only know they bought between 9-01-14 and 12-31-14.......not specific dates. If they bought early in the quarter they may well already have a 40% gain if they have an average cost of $5. Remember, EVC has only paid an average of $5.08 for the 2.5 million shares they have repurchased. IMVHO we will still see WFC adding and perhaps buying a big block to pop over 10%. I believe they will soon ask for board representation due to EVC's dismal financial performance. And, at some point when they have 15-20% they will probably approach EVC management about going private......unless EVC management pulls the trigger first. WFC may well be the financing behind a buy out. It just makes sense for EVC to buy back as many cheap shares before announcement and for WFC to buy as many in the open market before approaching big holders. May not sound like much but let's say WFC gets 20% of shares at an average cost of $7.50 including over 4.2 million already bought at probably below $5 average.....and they make an offer of $10........the 18 million shares they bought at $7.50 just saved them $45 million. I see a strategy of keeping stock price down till they accumulate 9.9% and then offer $8+/- to a large holder....and bam they are at 15-20% cheap. Going to be fun soon IMVHO. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    Something interesting I found today. West Face is being sued in Canada by Catalyst over a breach of management contract where West Face hired an executive from Catalyst over the investment of WF in Wind Wireless, the fourth largest wireless provider in Canada. It seems WF backed the founder of Wind in taking the company private. The lawsuit also is asking that the courts prevent West Face from participating in the Canadian Spectrum Auction next week, 3-03-15. Here we have a company interested in spectrum and helping take a company private. HMMMMMMMMM. Might get interesting. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Ranting

    by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 1:56 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    Dan, I also have to add that our USCR warrants have pretty much doubled in last few months. I keep buying and they keep going up. I'm at about 70,000 now of the USCXW's and USCRW's. I thought I was crazy buying 4,949 more USCRW's at $8.96 to $9.01 last week but they closed above $10 on Friday. They should hit $20 by year end. I have traded some in the past year but continued to add. The 30,000 +/- that I bought in the 3's a few months ago on the USCXW's almost hit $8 Friday. And I still have all those from bankruptcy court that are now worth about double my initial loss. Wonders never cease. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Ranting

    by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 1:56 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    The other issue is that the analysts have not been fooled. These idiots have tried to hide and deflect from real issues. In reality, the retrans revenue increase of $4.2 million and most if not all the $9+ million in political was give me's. A third party booked the political. The extra revenues which was over $13 million cost EVC zero dollars in extra payroll. Yes, they had to pay a third party commission probably but the point is........EVC should have REDUCED expenses by at least 10-13% in broadcast. You don't need to spend extra payroll when the revenues are incrementally gained, i.e. retrans. Even if the extra political cost the same expense, the retrans didn't. Expenses should have been down 4% regardless. Now, we have a situation where they are going into a non-political off year with expenses loaded to the brim. That's why well managed companies have a lot of part timers where they can adjust payroll when sales slow down. It appears EVC only hires incompetent full time employees that get rewarded with pay increases for sub-level performance. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    I have to first say that future results in revenues and EPS will have little effect on EVC stock price unless it looks like they are missing by large numbers. It's about unlocking the spectrum value. However, I get real irritated by incompetency and poor performance. Just wanted to show why a fund like WFC could take over this company and dramatically improve the value of current assets much less spectrum.
    Management has talked for years about their double digit increases in digital and mobile. It turns out their there entire digital and mobile revenues for 2014 were only $6.644 million and that includes 6.5 months of Pulpo revenues or over $6 million. They barely did a half million in 2014 without Pulpo. I remember they hired two new VP's about a year or so ago for this division. This means all the time they were talking about how great of a job they were doing it was just a few thousand dollars each quarter. Incredible.
    Now, they say they are tracking double digit this quarter. Let's say 20% growth. Even with Pulpo that's under a million dollars. Nothing. They did $165.472 million in broadcast and $69.922 million in radio. Just a 1% growth in these would be $1.65 million plus in broadcast and $700K in radio. Imagine a 5% increase! Looks to me like they need to clean house. They are giving pay increases to people that can't even beat the previous years numbers. Don't forget retrans was up $4.2 million in 2014. These idiots are chasing peanuts. Someone please takeover this company and hire people that know what they are doing.

  • Reply to

    Schedule 13's

    by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 9:18 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    You can also click "short interest" etc. One of my favorite websites.

  • Reply to

    Schedule 13's

    by daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 9:18 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 28, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    If you are on the site, there is a window with choices on the right. Just click "institutional holdings".

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