Last year day before Thanksgiving EVC traded only 543,000 shares and the day after thanksgiving we only traded 193,800 shares. Not much till Monday IMVHO. Happy Thanksgiving to all. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I would add that a certain amount of the spectrum in 2016 is reserved for minority buyers that will buy it just to lease it to the telecoms.........and the government is going to finance it for them. A real scam at taxpayer expense. They don't even need any money. The two Republican FCC members had to go along with it to get other things approved. DaninFW
I don't see it as a concern. AT&T has already committed to at least $9 billion. Sprint didn't even bid in this auction as they plan to bid in 2016. The next auction is for spectrum that can penetrate buildings, basements, walls, etc..........The word is that Google, Dish, Apple and Microsoft will be bidding in the next auction. If you remember the last auction, DISH bought almost all of it. Now, their spectrum is worth more than the company. They have to find the money and they now know they are going to need a bunch of it. Watch for these companies to start taking on debt now. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Almost 260,000 EVC shorted shares covered in past 2 weeks. Short interest dropped from 1,844,664 shares to 1,584,700 shares. Lowest short interest since 1-30-14. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Current auction now above $37 Billion and approaching almost 4 times the initial estimates for spectrum value. By my estimates it will be over $40-41 billion by final bids. That's 4 times the reserve. The FCC thinks 2016 auction will be $45 billion. Looks more like $90 billion if just double. No question in my mind EVC is worth a fortune for their spectrum. Something is up. Looks like $8+ by end of year. Another blog after the close picked EVC as #1 performing star stock of the day. When we break a new 52 week high this week or next there is a whole new bunch of players that trade 52 week high stocks. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The BOD's would have had to vote and approve the stock repurchase extension. They also get paid for every meeting in person and even for telephone meetings.......so they had to approve the dividend as well. Why haven't they declared? My gut tells me they are trying to get as much pr as possible which is interesting since they never cared before. We got a nice pop today on three different positive catalysts. If they declare a dividend that's even a positive. However, if they plan to still pay a special dividend and say announce tomorrow they are paying the 2.5 cent regular and 10 cent special dividend........we could have a nice pop tomorrow as well. Stock moved up at the close with a 65,000 block at the close at $6.38. EVC hardly ever trades after hours but has done 6400 at $6.38 as well. If we break out above $6.45 tomorrow this stock could hit $7 in a few days. Reminder that tomorrow almost every trader is gone early by noon, closed Thursday and market closes early with hardly no traders at their desks Friday. I suspect we will break $7 by early next week if not sooner. Except for the holiday, I would say this week. IMVHO something is up. I love to trade but am still holding. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm still laughing at contranut. His advice of dumping cost anyone a gain of 67.45% in about 6 weeks. He was always talking about beating the S&P. Well, annualized EVC is up almost 600%. He was hung up on my 5%+/- whatever which is now about 21,55% for3-6 months or 43-85% annualized. He was a real nutcase.
As for lyingmonger he had a purpose. He was pumping when he was selling and bashing when he was buying. His #$%$ about 2010 repeating itself has been completely debunked and designed to frighten people from making the same gains I mentioned above. Watch out if he comes back and starts pumping again.
Both thought $400 million debt was too high with $65 million a year in FCF. Now the debt is probably about 10-20 % of total spectrum value. They should take on more debt and buy back cheap shares so LT holders will be rewarded. Both of those idiots were real pieces of #$%$. DaninFW
From about $5 to current price we have had the mm pull price back, steal the cheap shares and then bump them to the big buyer near the close for a nice pop. Will be interesting if that's what happens today. If so, IMVHO that means we have a ways to go yet. We opened this morning with someone buying 25,000 and 50,000 share blocks left and right. Would be very nice to close above $6.45 on high volume. We could run to $7 very quickly. DaninFW
I agree with the two of you and holding. A third bit of positive news just hit with The Street making a pronouncement as well. I would rather wait to see how high it goes and sell when it flat lines. But, if we get another really big pop on no news.........it will be tempting again. DaninFW
Getting very tempting to sell right now. But, there is only single 1, strength 1 resistance from $6.17 to $6.45 and zero resistance above $6.45........may really break out. DaninFW
I had been wondering why no dividend announcement. I expected a 10 cent special dividend. The repurchase is in essence a 11 cent return to shareholders. I think this even better. I wish instead of paying debt down $20 million as stated by CFO, they would instead repurchase another $20 million in stock. Here's why. If they repurchased $30 million more instead of $10 million they would retire about 5 million shares. That would leave about 85 million shares outstanding instead of 90 million. If they sell about $2 billion in spectrum that makes cash received value $23.53 instead of $22.22........that's about 33 cents per share repurchase to generate $1.23 in returns. On an even bigger picture, debt is nothing now. Only 10-20% of value of spectrum......and perhaps just 5-10% if it's worth double previous projections. They should do a $100 million private placement bond offer and use proceeds to buy back the Univision shares for say $8 a share and use other $20 million for more repurchase in open market. They could retire about $13 million shares this way and remove the power Univision has over EVC. The $100 million investment at say 8% interest for 2 years would cost $116 million and paid off after selling spectrum. Instead of 90 million shares outstanding they would have about 75 million with other already announced repurchases. At $2 billion in spectrum value that makes the 75 million shares worth $26.67 now instead of $22.22 per share with 90 million outstanding an increase of $4.45 per share to remaining holders. This is what concerns me on this weak management team. They don't think smart. This would also get price per share up so EVC is not stolen on the cheap. DaninFW
My oldest son has been published in several oil and gas magazines and letters in Fortune, etc. He is considered an expert of sorts regarding taxing of oil and gas assets. When the shale boom recently hit in two new states, the state legislatures brought him in to do seminars for the Congressmen and Senators to bring them up to speed. Kind of proud of him and the rest of the brood. Daninfw
I really like keeping low profile. Just FYI but Aereo filed bankruptcy a few days ago and spectrum auction above $35 billion today. Tomorrow should be interesting but rest of the week pretty dead. Daninfw
another SA article came out after close hyping the stock. The article is positive and projects a big pop in EZvC. However, the author is laughable and uses spectrum values for 2013, divides by wrong number of shares, states that Univision controls EVC just to mention a few. Where do these idiots come from? Still holding. Daninfw
Another part of the NAB lawsuit says that they think the Class A stations are worth even more than Greenhill said. Here's the basic argument. Again, nothing but potential to increase spectrum values even more:
"The EOBC is honing in transmitting antenna patterns.
“By failing to double the vertical antenna patterns for Class A stations, TVStudy undervalues the service and interference potential of some Class A TV stations,” Padden’s comment states.
E.g., the omission predicts a population loss of nearly 96 percent for KSKT-CA in San Marcos, Calif., he said; one that is mitigated entirely by using vertical antenna pattern data values set forth in the commission’s July, 2011, Digital LPTV Order. This, with all other parameters reflecting those set out by the NAB in the organization’s comments on TVStudy. The resulting population coverage results also exactly reflect those of TVStudy’s precursor, OET-69, Padden said.
“The continued use of input values in TVStudy that the FCC has deemed ‘not appropriate’ will have a tremendous negative impact on certain Class A TV stations both in the auction and the subsequent repack,” Padden said. “First, it will unfairly reduce compensation for affected stations considering auction participation. Second, it will result in a failure to identify many unacceptable repacking scenarios—leading to real world interference after the auction that will, in some cases, greatly exceed the predictions in TVStudy.
“We urge the commission to act promptly to revise the vertical antenna pattern inputs in TVStudy to reflect the same values that the agency has used for years to determine a Class A TV station’s coverage and interference. “
Part of the problem is that the LPTV stations will require at least $150,000 per station to repack. NAB and others do not think that is enough and the individual stations will have to make up the difference. That was the other almost $2 billion that was being reserved. It would appear the current auction will generate more than enough which will allow FCC to offer more for the transition. The other legal concern is no protection for translators that could be eliminated which are being used to boost signal mainly for the 19% that use antennas in rural areas. SBGI uses a lot of translators. I think with the new values of spectrum, the FCC will have the money to work out the legal issues. The currently proposed FCC repacking plan does not even MENTION translators much less approves of them. Many broadcasters would lose viewers if not approved or changed. Many rural communities have even paid for their own translators in order to boost signal. You can bet they will contest the auction if not clarified soon. DaninFW
I believe all future M&A will be based on value of spectrum. For instance, NXST just yesterday bought a station in Las Vegas for $145 million and was totally based on cash flow and being immediately accretive to NXST by 40 cents/year per share. The spectrum is only worth $13-15 million in Las Vegas. If the spectrum and station had been located in San Diego which the spectrum alone is worth $250 million.......you can bet it would not have gone for $145 million. I would add that EVC really doesn't have but three options. 1) Sell the station spectrum for 100% and shut station down 2) Take about 50% of proceeds and channel share or 3) don't auction spectrum and sit back and let FCC take it away and repack where it is worth nothing. I think this is what's known as a no-brainer. So, we have three issues that will ultimately create the value equation. Do they do option 1 or 2 and when will the auction happen? If the values are double the original projections which they might well be.........$60-70 million a year in cash flow means nothing when the company could be worth $4-5 billion dead.......even though they would still have radio and digital/mobile assets. Based on current auction, they could sell all broadcast spectrum, have up to $3 billion in cash after paying off $400 million in debt and paying all taxes.........that's $33 per share. And other assets would be worth say $1-2 a share. That's $34-35 a share. It would take EVC 40-50 years to generate that much value at $60-70 million a year in FCF. Someone is going to take this company private or other broadcaster is going to gobble up. DaninFW
I continue to educate myself in regards to value of spectrum. I suspect this is happening universally as well and will ultimately rocket the stock price of certain companies like EVC. Many think every tv station in the U.S. have spectrum to sell. This is not true. Most if not all the recent new players are what is called Low Power TV stations. They will get nothing for their stations/spectrum and will be forced to repack and move to another bandwidth. There are 3,800 LPTV stations in the U.S. which is why there are lawsuits. They want protection from interference. ONLY 4% OF THESE LPTV STATIONS ARE CLASS A STATIONS THAT CAN PARTICIPATE IN THE AUCTION. EVC currently has 23 Full Power and 9 Class A stations that can participate in the auction. Only three of their total stations are LPTV station and can't participate. Over 90% of the stations owned by EVC are eligible for the auction. NO OTHER BROADCASTER COMES CLOSE TO THESE NUMBERS. No wonder we have come up almost 50% from the 52 week low in a matter of weeks. I suspect there is much more to come. DaninFW
Just hit a new 52 week high. Seemed like every one liked the presentation in Dallas on Thursday. Had lunch with retired VP of Texas Industries yesterday. I asked his thoughts. He thinks we will soon see a wave of more mergers and acquisitions. He also thinks USCR will soon get taken out as well with their rapid growth. Another few days like last 2 days and we will be in some serious money. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Barron's did an article today on DISH and how Barron's predicted how it would pop after the auction. They had an article in July saying to expect it to go up in November because of spectrum. They said today expect another 25% on DISH. It is a moving target right now, When auction is finished the pencil pushers will start looking at values. No question now that the $45 billion estimate is very low not including the fact Firstnet is now fully funded and broadcasters would get that other $7 billion. I am still holding all shares and may trade some but leaning to holding all if not most shares for at least a little longer. I really believe that EVC has already or soon will have a target painted on it's back. There are no guarantees the auction will ever happen but Congress mandated three auctions several years ago and we are concluding the second one in next week or so. There are those for and against the auction but increasing values are going to work in favor of sellers. We are at least 12-16 months away from the next auction. Going to be a lot of volatility. I still think, especially now, that someone is going to try and steal EVC on the cheap and make an offer of $8-10 next few months. DaninFW