Help yourself. The methodology is valid. Just change taxable income, hence e&p, without the gain on nre distribution, add various gains....200, 300, 400 million for example, subtract preferred dividends and the balance is taxable to common. Then, taxable / total distributions to common = pct ordinary income. The balance is roc.
Since the properties are so new (and the best evidence of fmv is an arms length transaction between unrelated parties) I think all can agree that the fair market value of the properties was the purchase price at the time the P&S contracts were signed.
We are trying to measure the fmv of the stock distributed, not the real estate. However the dominant indicator of the value of the stock will be the fair market value of the properties (and other assets) minus total liabilities.
The fmv of the properties will be determined principally by dividing current noi by todays cap rates. Cap rates are influenced by a multitude of factors including, but not limited to, the vacancy rate, length of leases in place, financial strength of tenants, etc, etc.
The properties cost roughly 2.6 billion with roughly 1.6 billion in debt leaving stockholders' equity at 1 billion (960 million in s-11a). That's book value which I suspect approximates tax basis of the stock in nrf's hands. Absent demonstrable changes in market factors, I think we can safely assume no appreciation over cost of the iconic tower......it's just too new. Do that leaves us with appreciation on about 2 billion of older assets. If it's 10%, then 200 million of unrealized appreciation, 15% = 300 million and 20% = 400 million. I doubt it's less than 200 or more than 400. Thus, I think 300 is a reasonable guess.
960 of book value equity plus 300 of unrealized appreciation = 1.260 billion fair market value of 100% of the equity (net asset value). I think there will be closer to 400 million shares outstanding by the time nre gets distributed, so per share = 3.15.
Treasury shares do not get dividends. So another way of looking at it is 12 saves paying out 1.60 per year.
1.60 / 12.00 = 13.33% return on equity used to buyback one share.
BTW, if the stock price recovers to, say, 17, they can sell the treasury shares in the open market and the gain is not taxable. 5/ 12 = 41.66% tax free profit in this illustration.
A possible downside to treasury stock holdings is the payout required to eliminate income tax at the corporate level......100% of taxable income (90% to maintain reit status). These are aggregates, not per share. For a company whose payouts are under the thresholds, fewer shares outstanding call for more payout per share. This is not a problem for nrf since they are paying out return of capital dividends which, by definition, are in excess of taxable income (actually current e&p, a modifed form of taxable income).
As to the company buyback, I found no sec rules requiring a waiting period after announcement.
As to insiders (and I suppose the company buyback) all public companies have "closed windows" aka blackout periods, where insider trading is prohibited by the company. One bigshot in a small public company (not nrf or nsam) told me (about 15 years ago) that he could not trade from the first day of the last month of each quarter until the 4th business day after earnings were released. IF, notice I say IF, nrf/nsam had an identical rule and 3Q earnings are to be released on 11/5, then no insider could trade from 9/1/15 through 11/10/15. Trading would reopen on 11/11/15.
If that were the case, how did Hess get to sell nrf shares on 12/23/14, by which date she surely knew what 4Q cad per share would be? Beats the hell outta me.
I suggest you send that question to NRF/NSAM. As of a few minutes ago NOT ONE Form 4 has been filed reporting an insider purchase. Form 4 filing requirement is 2 business days after event. As of a minute ago, not one Form 4 has been filed for either company. Not one officer or director has purchased ANY shares of EITHER company. Yet they try to convince the outside world that the stock is undervalued by the market.
Money talks. Bullfeathers walk. (yahoo will censor real word I want to use).
It's an absolute outrage that Hamo, Tylis (especially), Gilbert and Hess, the chief looters and sellers of then high FREE, giveaway robber shares have not used ANY of their ill-gotten cash to show public support for the stock. Millions upon millions of cashed-in, excessive robber shares, and not one penny buying what they try to tell us is underpriced stock. Greed has no bounds.
That's green-with-envy gary cloaked in a new screen name. Probably doesn't have a pot to #$%$ in and licks the bottom of Obama's shoes for more welfare because the rich don't deserve what they earned.
Guys like me don't survive without a very thick skin. Posts like that are amusement. Failures by their own actions, so jealous of those who succeeded by their own brains and hard work, that they throw rocks from afar, pleading for more handouts. Tough s*h*i*t. Get a job.
And how many shares of each company are outstanding? It's the percentage that counts for purposes of conflict of interest, not the number of shares.
As of April 8, 2015, all officers and directors of NSAM collectively owned 2.54% of the stock then outstanding.
As of the same date, all officers and directors of NRF owned less than 1% (number not disclosed) of the stock then outstanding.
Straight from the proxy statements. I was too lazy to ferret out individual ownership.
Thus, the big shots collectively have MORE THAN 2.5 times the percentage ownership in nsam than they have in nrf. Guess which side of the bread the butter is going on.
BTW, I predicted this was going to happen well before the spinoff. At the spin, when everybody owned the same percentage of both companies 1 dollar out of the left pocket (nrf) was 1 dollar into the right pocket (nsam). At April 8, less than 1 dollar out of the insiders' left pocket becomes more than 2.50 into their right pocket.
....... It is not in NSAM's best interest for NRF to buy back shares, ............
NRF's directors, including the officers, have a fiduciary duty to do what is best for nrf, not nsam.
The big shots own a bigger percentage of nsam than they do of nrf.....a clear conflict of interest. We'll see what nrf does tonight, if anything.
VNQ down 2%......NRF down 11% on no company -specific news. This demands a statement from the company after the close. A "we know of no reason".....statement.
If they had more than half-a-brain, they would also announce a buyback authorization AND their intention on a 3rd quarter dividend.
The tutes are now in monkey see, monkey do mode. NRF has turned into such c*r*a*p since the filing of the proxy statement the tutes are doing reverse window dressing......nobody wants to be seen holding this dog at quarter end.
Nice job, Hamo. Award yourself some more robber shares.
I suspect a bunch of stop loss orders were triggered so I watched for a steady uptic from the low. I bought 5,000 at 12.4266 on the rebound. I'm hoping for a fat dinner trade since I own so much. if not, then 1.60 / 12.4266 = 12.875%.
It takes real strength to trade against a strong market. Major averages up big time. VNQ up .85%.
Yet NRF and NSAM down. Now, that's strength. Too bad the direction is down. That's what happens when the big boys turn sour on you. Since the filing of the proxy statements, NRF and, to a lesser extent, NSAM have done nothing right. This is what we get.
Yeah, that speech went over like a f*a*rt in church. Nevertheless, it appears they have some technology (and patents) which could be valuable to a big auto manufacturer.
VW is following the classic crisis management script so far. The next step is to do something which appears to be a genuine effort to right the wrong. CDTI is so small and so cheap that it is petty cash to VW. Another big auto may also be interested if the technology has real promise to become mainstream. If, say, Ford owned CDTI and the technology became mainstream, then they pay royalties to themselves (vs interval wiper cost).
I'm nowhere near qualified to evaluate the technology. My tipster says to be patient for several months and that is my current inclination.
NRF...33.2 million at 8/31 vs 33.4 million at 8/15. Can't determine what, if any, significance because we don't know how many, if any, shares were issued to DB under forward sales agreement. 200k decrease by itself is peanuts.
NSAM.....4.6 million at 8/31 vs 4.0 million at 8/15.......increase of 15% in two weeks.
I was asked a ridiculous question so I gave a ridiculous answer. I figured 200,000 shares would be the tip-off to long time readers. I have never sold nrf or nsam short.
I heard them award the robber shares and then heard they would try to sneak it by the shareholders with Friday night filings so I shorted 200,000 shares. And you?
NRF has a bunch of healthcare properties, its largest group. Hmmmm, HCN was up .92% today. SNH up 1.37%.
Next in size is hotels. It's partner in hotels, CLDT was up .84% today.
Next, (excluding Europe) is manufactured housing. ELS, the biggest, was up 1.45% today. SUI up 1.14%.
The grandaddy of equity reit indexes, VNQ, was up .47% today after going ex dividend by 75.2 cents.
Therefore, it musta been a good day for NRF. OOPs, down .94%. How could that be with its major sectors and the index ALL being up by more than a tiny bit?
Hey, Langer, you know. Ah, uh, ya gotta, you know, practice a little, ahh, before, you know, get up to, you know, give, ah, er....a talk. Otherwise, you know, people might, uh, get, you know, a bad impression.
CEO of VW just got fired......a necessary PR step.
This is crisis management. One step is the sacrificial lamb. Publicly punish the wrongdoer (or the one responsible for the wrongdoer....the captain of the ship is responsible for EVERYTHING that ship does.)
Another step in crisis management is to do something obviously good, an effort to right the wrong...like buy such a wonderful name......Clean Diesel Technology. Sounds like motherhood and apple pie.
IF.....notice I say IF you are going to GAMBLE (not invest) on this crazy possibility, I suggest you do so before tomorrow's speech:
OXNARD, Calif., Sept. 21, 2015 (my deletion) -- Clean Diesel Technologies, Inc.....(my deletion).... a leader in advanced emission control technology, will participate at the 6th Annual Global Congress of Catalysis 2015 (GCC-2015) being held September 24th to 26th in Xi'an, China. CDTi's Chief Technology Officer, Dr. Steve Golden, has been invited to give a keynote speech titled "Development of Spinel(TM) Mixed Metal Oxides for Zero-Precious Metal and Ultra-Low Precious Metal Next-Generation TWC." Dr. Golden will present CDTi's new Spinel technology and the potential to use Spinel in tandem with low platinum group metal (PGM) levels to achieve very low emissions. Also, he will discuss initial engine test results demonstrating the potential for an ultra-low PGM option for catalysts.
I have no idea.....not a clue.....whether any of this might solve VW's technology problem.......how to fix 11 million diesel engines without going bankrupt. Nevertheless, a cheap purchase will be a PR winner for VW.
Just imagine.....VW can brag that in it's born-again life, it is a leader in clean diesel technology.
BTW....expect wild rides......I sold this morning for 2.2092 and a few minutes later bought 'em back for 1.9655.