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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. Message Board

dar200 260 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 59 minutes ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • I suggest selling KMI short NOW for a flip in 7 to 10 trading days.

    KMP is a MLP paying tax deferred distributions of a decent yield. The long term plan for such a hold is to die with the position and tax deferred becomes income tax free.

    KMI is forcing KMP unit holders into a merger with KMI where most of the consideration will be KMI stock paying a taxable dividend of a lower yield. The merger was approved yesterday and will close 11/26, the day before Thanksgiving after which many people take the Friday off. Consequently, many will not see the KMI shares until Monday, 12/1.

    I suspect a flood of KMI selling by KMP unit holders, first to pay involuntary income taxes, and also to reinvest in a different MLP. I'm one of them. I sold all my KMP wednesday and bought more ETP and some ARP, as I want to be ahead of the post-merger crowd. I also sold KMI short today. I expect to be out of it by 12/5 with a nice profit.

  • dar200 by dar200 Nov 21, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Millions and millions of unwanted KMI shares will be forced on KMP unit holders who want tax deferred distributions, not qualified dividends of a lower yield. These shares will be sold in droves as KMP people raise cash for involuntary income taxes as well as to invest in other MLPs.

    Not only did I sell all of my KMP for cash Wednesday, I sold KMI short today.

    KMP investors who are getting screwed on this deal can get some revenge by making money shorting KMI, imo.

  • Reply to

    I think a ton of KMP money is flowing to ETP

    by elhertetic Nov 18, 2014 9:51 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 21, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Even those who elect all cash will only get a fraction of what they want. Millions of unwanted KMI shares will be sold to put proceeds, after paying involuntary income taxes, into other MLPs. To be sure, ETP will get its share of the new demand for mlp units, as will other mlps. The selling, however, will be concentrated in one stock....KMI. That's why I just sold it short.

  • Reply to

    Question for Dar et al

    by tpslucci2 Nov 19, 2014 2:04 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 20, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    I speculated with 1,000 shares:
    Date Time Price Quantity Total
    11/20/2014 03:38:52 PM $92.5599 1,000.000 $92,559.90

    About 17 minutes later:

    Date Time Price Quantity Total
    11/20/2014 03:56:25 PM $97.59 1,000.000 $97,587.84

    Another 5,012 (net of commissions) for the Christmas fund. I don't think I've ever done 5.41% in 17 minutes before.

    I like this stock.

  • Fidelity has not posted discount drip units as of a few minutes ago, 9:15 am, 11/20.

    Anybody have discount drip units posted yet?

    Also, discount drip price should be 61.8503. Drippers who pay substantially more than that, please shame your broker here by nsming it and the price you paid per unit, to four decimal places. Let's hear from Etrade and Vanguard drippers, as well as any other broker who does not participate in the discount drip program.

  • Reply to

    I think a ton of KMP money is flowing to ETP

    by elhertetic Nov 18, 2014 9:51 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 19, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    I'm not sure the kmp money flowing into etp is a ton YET, but I expect it will be many tons before this month is out.

  • Can't stand yahoo censorship gone wild any more.

  • Reply to

    Mini breakout for nsam

    by dar200 Nov 18, 2014 2:11 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 18, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    NRF h#$%$s #$%$ big seller le#$%$ning on the bid......#$%$ll d#$%$y yesterd#$%$y #$%$nd so f#$%$r #$%$ll d#$%$y tod#$%$y.

    This seller drives the price down then stops, lets the price come b#$%$ck up then le#$%$ns on the bid #$%$g#$%$in until the stop point. First drop this morning w#$%$s to 13-14 (#$%$fter touching 12 ever so briefly). Seller stopped until price b#$%$ck up to 20, then sell it down #$%$g#$%$in to 13-14. Then stop. I got #$%$ dinner tr#$%$de st#$%$rt #$%$t 17.13-14 on the second selldown figuring th#$%$t w#$%$s the sellers limit. I sold for dinner #$%$t 17.25 #$%$bout 1.5 hrs l#$%$ter (#$%$bout 1pm) #$%$nd the pushb#$%$ck h#$%$s persisted since then, but it #$%$ppe#$%$rs seller is now stopping #$%$t 18-19.

    Problem with big seller is one doesn't know how m#$%$ny sh#$%$res #$%$nd how b#$%$dly the seller w#$%$nts to sell. I suspect we will get #$%$ hint going into tod#$%$y's close #$%$s to how b#$%$dly. IMO, nrf #$%$in't goin up without #$%$ c#$%$t#$%$lyst until this seller is done.

  • Reply to

    NSAM 2015

    by dar200 Nov 14, 2014 9:16 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 18, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    Try reading the earnings press release. If you have already done so, try, try again. Read it as many times as you have to in order to find out what happens to the cash.

  • The move from 21.25 to 21.40 without a profit-taking pushback is very encouraging for a breakout to the upside.

    As I have been saying since earnings and the presentation materials, we have a slow, lazy market which did not get spoonfed a 2015 cad estimate. That will come in very late Feb or early March.

    I suggest not selling because, while some learning has been exhibited, the volume has been low. Many more shares don#$%$ have a clue yet, imo. They must be wondering why the steady price increase. Perhaps they should read this board, or the DB report. DB got it right, just a little slower than me.

  • Reply to

    Thanks to Dar and everyone else on this board

    by reisenberg Nov 18, 2014 9:49 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 18, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    You're welcome. I'm happy to share with other retails.

    I suggest you learn all you can about the disease you will be fighting. The more you know about your enemy, the more likely you are to win the fight. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Half-a-tea leaf

    by dar200 Nov 18, 2014 9:14 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 18, 2014 1:54 PM Flag


    NAW, if there were any, they belong to seller and were very minor if perceptible at all.

    Only thing that worries me about hotels is they are very economically sensitive, thus the high cap rate and yield on leveraged equity. A downturn in U.S. economy will first show up in the hotel results. On the other hand, a bad economy is good for manufactured housing because it is cheap housing. Healthcare will be affected after a while but is supported by demographics. The aging of baby boomers is not affected by anything but the passage of time.

  • From this morning's press release. A hint from Hamo.

    "We expect our overall hotel portfolio, 90% of which is affiliated with Marriott or Hilton, to generate substantial NOI growth in 2015."

    Nice they closed this now. First they get the holiday boost, almost 1/1/2 months in 4Q (a significant factor in 4Q cad per share not going down from 3Q) and a full year's depreciation in 2015 to help insure 100% roc dividends for 2015.

  • Reply to

    Calling all drip investors

    by dar200 Nov 14, 2014 8:49 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 18, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Vanguard did not buy yesterdaay when lod was 20.96. Last Fri NSAM opened at 20.59. Looks like Vang bought Fri.

  • Reply to

    10/31 NAV = 25.71????

    by dar200 Nov 17, 2014 4:29 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 17, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Hanging my head in shame. Copy & paste above was from American Capital LTD, which Fidelity has listed as a press release under agnc symbol. My bad. Shirt is off for deserved flogging.

  • Reply to

    Calling all drip investors

    by dar200 Nov 14, 2014 8:49 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 17, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Screwed again by Ameritrade:

    NSAM: 21.1026

    That just happens to be 3.2% above the cost at Fidelity.

  • From earnings press release:

    " As of September 30, 2014, net asset value ("NAV") per share was $20.54, a $0.42 per share, or 2%, increase from the June 30, 2014 NAV per share of $20.12, and a $1.00 per share, or 5%, increase from the September 30, 2013 NAV per share of $19.54."

    From dividend press release just issued:

    "The Company also announced today its estimated net asset value ("NAV") of $25.71 per share of common stock as of October 31, 2014. The estimated NAV as of October 31, 2014 is net of the Company's October 2014 common stock dividend, ...."

    How did they go from 20.54 at 9/30 to 25.71 at 10/31?????

    Yeah, yeah I've heard of fair value adjustments. Bot more than 5 bucks per share is WAY out of line.

  • Reply to

    NSAM is getting all the love.

    by kenpalley2000 Nov 17, 2014 2:53 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 17, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    So much for puppy love. The droolers wet their keyboards.

  • Reply to

    Calling all drip investors

    by dar200 Nov 14, 2014 8:49 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 17, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    No more drippers here? Schwab, Etrade, Vanguard and others bought last Fri. Those shares should be posted to your account by now. Ameritrade buys today, so I'll have a price on nsam, but that's all I have at AMTD now.

    Contribute your info to this thread, so all can see who the highest cost broker is.

  • Reply to

    A flipper's delight

    by dar200 Nov 15, 2014 11:29 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 15, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    Making 4.7% on 10,000 is just as good as on making 4.7% on 100,000. In fact it's better because the commissions are a bigger pct of a smaller trade number.

    And actually I'm a very long term investor. Most of my portfolio is old & cold and is not going to be traded or sold unless fundamentals change. It just sits there producing dividends. Watching dividends come in is VERY boring (except a monster dividend day like yesterday). I'm retired from my day job and have all day, every day, so I flip for fun and entertainment. I don't do it for the money. I give the kids and 529 plans for the grandkids the after-tax proceeds at Christmas. That's very satisfying. It's a lot more fun to give to them while we're alive to see the smiling faces than to leave it to them at death. Actually, the Christmas gifts are really an advance on their inheritance. The more we give them while we are alive the less they get at out deaths, but they don't see it that way.

    Our kids never even heard of Northstar until this year. Now they'll think Hamo is the greatest guy in the world.

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