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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Message Board

dar200 209 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Question about NSAM

    by wallstpirate 18 hours ago

    Read nsam's 10-K. It was just filed.

  • Reply to

    Effect on nsam

    by dar200 10 hours ago

    Sorry, I meant to give you thumbs up but missed the icon.

    I was too slow to offer my flip lots at 27.64. Rats!!

  • NRF is giving a presentation at some Citi conference tomorrow morning at 9:30. If they are going to reveal info at that presentation like presentation slides including a first estimate of nrf 2015 cad per share, they will post those slides to the website before the market opens.

    All they have revealed about 2015 cad per share so far is that 4Q cad of 44 annualized = 1.76. If they come out with, say, 1.85 to 2.00 (or something else which shows decent growth), the offering discount might disappear real early in the day......or it could be delayed for the presentation and Q&A to finish......or, with the market so slow, it may take a few days to be spoonfed by analysts. If it's lousy, say a lower limit of less than 1.76, the market will sell off.

    If NRF releases its presentation slides tomorrow morning, I hope nsam does so also, as its first estimate of 2015 cad per share will include fees from today's offering announcement. Instead of them estimating, say, 1.10, they will estimate 1.15. if so, and since this will be the first annual spoonfeeding, nsam may really pop.
    If so, the early bird gets the bargain.

  • Reply to

    OT: Dar what else you in

    by wallstpirate 8 hours ago

    SUI & ETP are 2 & 3 by size.

  • Reply to

    Playing the offering flip

    by dar200 15 hours ago

    Posted reasons on IV board.

  • Reply to

    60 million shares

    by dar200 10 hours ago

    Trade on me all you want. All my facts are public. I'm just very good and very fast at connecting dots and drawing reasonable inferences therefrom. And I do not hesitate to trade on the inferences because if I guess wrong on nrf/nsam, I just hold as I'm confident time will bail me out of my error.

  • Reply to

    60 million shares

    by dar200 10 hours ago

    No. It's electronic, but just as real.

    No. Games like this are my fun and entertainment. Also helps keep the brain sharp. nrf/nsam positions are sooo overweight in my portfolio I watch them like a hawk. May as well have some fun and make a few bucks to give the kids at Christmas for all the work I do.

  • Reply to

    60 million shares

    by dar200 10 hours ago

    If my real name were Hamo, I'd be in jail for insider trading.

  • Reply to

    Playing the offering flip

    by dar200 15 hours ago

    Option spread is simple. Sell nsam short then exercise the option to cover.

  • 60 million shares at not less than 18.00 (net, net) = 1.08 billion of new equity. NSAM gets a minimum of 1.5% which = 16.2 million annualized x 70% for cad = 11.34 million annualized cad / 200 million shares = 5.67 cent annualized increment to nsam's cad per share.

    Hamo will not do a dilutive deal, so at 44 cents, nsam gets 15% x 5 cents = .75 cent per share incentive fee x 60 million shares = 450K annualized incentive fee x 70% for cad = .315 million annualized cad / 200 million shares = .158 cents per nsam share.

    So, on an annualized basis assuming cad neutral for nrf, this adds a little less than 6 cents (annualized) to nsam per share x 25 for those who recognize the growth at nsam = 1.50 added to the price.

    Of course nsam won't go up by 1.50 because a slow, lazy lemming market can't (or won't) figure it out. So buy nsam while the bargain is evident. Once the market sees it in the rearview mirror, the bargain is gone.

  • Reply to

    60 million shares

    by dar200 10 hours ago

    Cost of forward sale is much less than the dilution from idle cash.

  • Reply to

    60 million shares

    by dar200 10 hours ago

    I don't have one. I will sell nsam and buy as many shares of nrf as the proceeds will buy. I expect this might open over the offer price.

  • Reply to

    Playing the offering flip

    by dar200 15 hours ago

    My 4,000 share buy was at 02:24:20. That helped turn the tide.

  • Reply to

    Playing the offering flip

    by dar200 15 hours ago

    Could not make a grand so holding them for tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Playing the offering flip

    by dar200 15 hours ago

    I bought 4,000 at 23.392 for a dinner trade. Maybe I'll sell them today for dinners or hold them for tomorrow hoping for an offering announcement.

    Down 3.75% was just too much to resist flipping.

  • Reply to

    Playing the offering flip

    by dar200 15 hours ago

    Yeah, I usually suspect Thursday posts bragging about what the poster did the previous Monday.

    I have been challenged in the past on flips and I simply posted a copy & paste of the Fidelity history. Anybody who has a Fidelity account will recognize the format. Yahoo won't let me do that (copy & paste) any more. So, If anyone wants to see the transactions, I'll post them on IV, which does not have a speech police force.

    This is the first time I have played an offering flip this way. I want that nrf dividend so I only have two days to complete the reversal (even though I intend to do it tomorrow if an offering is announced tonight).

    We'll see. If no offering and nsam goes down while nrf goes up, I get screwed to the extent the proceeds from nsam are insufficient to buy 10,000 shares of nrf.

  • Just sold 10,000 nrf in big IRA and bought 7,978 nsam with the proceeds.

    I expect offering announcement tonight after close. This should cause a market discount to be reflected in nrf and a pop in nsam. I expect 50 million shares to be offered which at 18.20 (net net) = 910 million of new equity which at 1.5% = another 13.65 million of minimum fees (annualized) to nsam.

    Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I will sell this lot of nsam and buy as many shares of nrf as the proceeds from nsam will buy (to keep nrf dividend). Hopefully, I end up with more than 10,000 nrf.

    Will post result of this game after I complete it.

  • Reply to

    The price we pay

    by dar200 Feb 24, 2015 5:03 PM

    The second price we pay is no dividend increase. I bet the bonuses were big for the insiders.

    IMO, bonus amount (as pct of salary) should be limited to total return realized by common shareholders. If we get a 12% total return, then bonuses, including stock awards, are limited to 12% of already generous salaries.

  • Fidelity updated the details of the tax status of my nrf 2014 dividends. Remember, there are two different nrfs this year.....pre reorg/spin and a newco which changed its name to nrf. They have different CUSIP numbers.

    The March and June dividends (old nrf) are 88.79% roc.
    The Aug and Nov dividends (new nrf) are 79.47% roc.

    The balance is taxable and about 90% of the taxable is ordinary, non-qualifying dividend. It looks like 10% of the taxable (2.582% of the total) is a qualifying dividend). Don't use my percentages on qualifying because I flipped nrf so many times I failed to meet the holding period to get qualified status.

    What really pi$$es me off is Fidelity got this info last Fri and it's STILL not on the nrf website.

ARR
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