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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 536 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 57 minutes ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • I will listen to the replay to confirm what I think I heard from Tylis.

    The question was to the effect, Was inclusion in the RMZ a consideration in deciding to spin Europe?

    I think I heard Tylis answer, yes it was a consideration in deciding which company to spin off. If I am correct about what he said, then it seems at least one more spinoff is under active consideration.

    Hamo ain't done getting the yield down.

  • Reply to

    March 22.50 calls

    by dar200 Feb 26, 2015 11:01 AM

    Of course you can. The problem is getting an execution.

  • Reply to

    March 22.50 calls

    by dar200 Feb 26, 2015 11:01 AM

    Bill Gates had a concentrated portfolio. The counter argument to diversification to avoid way overweight positions is ride your winners and sell your losers. The typical retail sells winners out of fear the paper gains will be lose and holds losers hoping to get out even. That's why the pros make so much money off retails.

  • Reply to

    March 22.50 calls

    by dar200 Feb 26, 2015 11:01 AM

    Just talked to Fidelity specialist. I can instruct Fidelity to exercise and immediately sell underlying stock (using day trading buying capacity) OR I can sell short against the box and later exercise the call to cover. As long as I close the short sale before next Jan, the constructive sale of the box rule does not apply.

    Fidelity now showing 11 million nsam available to short with no htb designation.

    Thus I have plenty of options to avoid getting screwed by the mms' spreads.

  • 4Q 2014 cad per share = 44 cents

    Ratio of cad contribution, mortgage vs equity, something we never had before.

  • Reply to

    Told ya nsam 24

    by dar200 Feb 26, 2015 9:38 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 26, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Yeah, when your wife starts on you for having way too big a position in nrf-nsam, you blame it on me.

  • Reply to

    Told ya nsam 24

    by dar200 Feb 26, 2015 9:38 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 26, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    Noooo, no no. I never said bugged. I said my apartment shares a common wall with the boardroom and the wall is thin. And if you believe that, I have a great bridge for sale.

  • NSAM at 24.00 = calls 1.50 in the money. Yet bid on calls = 1.30. DUH!! Gotta be nuts to lose 20 cents on top of time value. If I wanted 1.50 for my calls, I'd exercise and immediately sell.

  • Reply to

    dar or anyone.

    by anal.lyst Feb 26, 2015 10:02 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 26, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    Too early for that. I can tell you that the combined first post-spin dividend will not be less than the last pre spin dividend as a reduced post spin dividend is a Wall Street no, no. It just won't happen.

    The spin ratio is irrelevant. The important thing is the value of your newco is more than the drop in value of NRF. To illustrate, if the value of a new share is 1.50 and the price of nrf drops by 1.00 on the spin date (assumes 1:1 spin ratio), you win by 50 cents per share.

    If the europe assets spun out cost 2 billion and nrf has 25% equity, the equity is 500 million. If, by the spin date there are 400 million nrf shares outstanding, then each share of nrf gets 1.25 of value. If the value of nrf drops by 1.00, you win by 25 cents per share.

    Hamo thinks the market will pay substantially more for that 500 million of equity in the european market as a stand alone than the US market will pay for it buried inside nrf in the US market. That's why he is doing the spin.

  • Reply to

    Told ya nsam 24

    by dar200 Feb 26, 2015 9:38 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 26, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    BTW, we toast to lunco when using your card.

  • Reply to

    Told ya nsam 24

    by dar200 Feb 26, 2015 9:38 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 26, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    Thank you, lunco. I'm still working on the 15 Point dinner card you so kindly sent me.

    I suggest nobody sell either today. More good news tomorrow. NRF offering Monday, which NSAM will include in 2015 cad est. So nrf gets a temporary dip Tuesday while nsam gets a bigger bump.

  • Gotta admit, earlier than I expected.

    Now I expect 25 to 26 within 10 days of first release of est 2015 cad per share.

  • Reply to

    Spinoff Announcement!

    by newguy7001 Feb 26, 2015 7:50 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 26, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    See my post on IV.

  • Reply to

    NSAM smackdown

    by dar200 Feb 25, 2015 3:03 PM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 25, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    It's 648 dollars ( I don't use dollar sign) for dinners, not 648 dinners. I keep about 58% of short gains after taxes so I net about 376.....good for 3 dinners out since we rarely spend more than 120 for dinner and drinks (to toast company paying for dinner). Toast tonight was to nsam. Wife just loves these "free" (her term) dinners out.

  • As I (not Bloomberg) expected, 40 + 10. Both ex on 3/5 and paid on 3/13.

  • Reply to

    NSAM smackdown

    by dar200 Feb 25, 2015 3:03 PM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 25, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    Could not resist. Got 648 for dinners out in 40 minutes. Will surprise wife for tonight.

  • Hedge funds never collude to smack the price of a stock down in unison. Nooooo, that would never happen because it is illegal. Writers of naked calls feeling scared? Shorts worried the price is running away from them?

    Too little, too late, imo. By next Tuesday (I hope) the nsam presentation will be out and even the lemmings may begin to understand.

  • Reply to

    Over 42 combined

    by dar200 Feb 25, 2015 10:34 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 25, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    NRF increase will be 2 cents (5%). Less confident about nsam due to possibly keeping cash for more (or increased) acquisitions. Nevertheless, I'm leaning toward 1 cent (10%). Both in May.

    2 cents from nrf will come regardless of spin announcement because actual spin transaction (of mortgage business) would be after close of business on 12/31/14. Of course, all this just my opinion.

    If a follow-on is soon (I think next Monday), Hamo can help his price by announcing "expectation" of increases Friday, subject, of course, to bod making final decision when appropriate time comes. They set a precedent by pre-announcing last Aug, so no big deal doing it again. Another 50 cents on a new 40 million shares = another 20 million to cover insiders' stealing shares.

  • 23.33 + 19.00 = 42.33. Will hit 50.00 combined before 12/31/15, imo.

    Bump to nrf comes from a spinoff. Slow growth annuity thereafter. Bump to nsam comes from slow lazy market learning from spoonfeeding and the rear view mirror what a growth money machine nsam is. Appropriate multiple for growth rate thereafter.

  • Reply to

    Common Stock Dividen Announcement

    by rsant1 Feb 25, 2015 9:21 AM
    dar200 dar200 Feb 25, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    It's in Hamo's head. Pretty soon it will be transcribed to electronic form. Not too long thereafter, ZAPPO, it's all over the world.

    Satisfied now?

EDE
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