In perfect parity, (nrfwi /2) + (nrewi /6) = nrf.
When that formula is not true the guys with the fastest trading computers pocket the difference from parity.
It's called arbitrage. I just posted on the IV board an example from the last prices where the difference was 7 cents from parity.
On a 1 for 1 basis, expected annualized dividend of 1.50 for nrf and 10 cents for nre.
So, on as when done basis the NRE dividend will be 60 cents on 1/6th the nrf shares and the nrf dividend will be 3.00 on half the shares. For the math challenged, that's 15 cents per Q for nre and 75 cents per Q for nrf.
How can it be? How can NRF be DOWN 1.53% today when VNQ is up 1.37%, SUI is up 1.14%, HCN is up 1.18% and CLDT is up .44%?????????
It's the skunk stink on top of the stink of no tax guidance on the spin and estimated roc portion of this year's common dividend. Today is the last day to NOT be a shareholder of record at the close of trading on 10/22 when the distribution of NRE attaches to the shareholder. Yeah, you can sell NRE-WI, hence be short, but the tax consequences of receiving NRE attached at today's close. I suspect a good part of the selling was to avoid an unknown tax consequence. Unknown in toto because the company has given no guidance.
From 2/26/15 press release first announcing spinoff of NRE:
"The Company believes that the transaction represents an opportunity to unlock value for NorthStar Realty shareholders through benchmarking NorthStar Realty Europe against publicly-traded European equity REITs, many of which trade at substantial NAV premiums and at implied capitalization rates that would translate into substantial immediate value creation for NorthStar Realty shareholders. "
Without the stink of the sewer, the above may have been correct.
If this is unlocking value, I'd rather have it locked up.
And here we are AGAIN: NRF down the largest percentage of 25 reits that I watch while SUI (manufactured housing), HCN (healthcare) and CLDT (hotels) all are green. VNQ, the equity reit index etf of which nrf is a member is also green.
It's the stink.
Because Hamo is smart. He knows they went too far and are suffering for it. It will turn around, but will take time. Cash is cash. Dividends don't stink.
When I was an early teen I started hanging around with a bunch of guys who had a very bad reputation. My mother said to me, "When you wallow in the gutter long enough, you come up smelling like sewage."
It appears to me that NRF (hence nsam and nre) management smells like sewage to the market. The evidence of the stench came toward the end of September when in 3 trading days ending with 9/29, tutes, racing each other to not show holding NRF at 9/30, sold the price from 13.72 to 11.83 with over 42 million shares of volume, a drop of 13.78% on no news.
IMO, management has wallowed in the gutter too long and now smells like sewage. What gutter? The gutter of greed with obscenely excessive compensation. The gutter of sneakiness with Friday night sec filings of robber share awards, insider selling, and especially the Friday night filing of the compensation vote results when the votes took place the prior Wednesday morning. The gutter of ducking accountability by withdrawing forward guidance, not releasing the financial supplement until after the CC and giving analysts only one hour to digest two sets of financial statements before the CCs begin. The gutter of buffoonery by Tylis and Langer at presentations. Wallow long enough and you smell like sewage.
The stink attaches like skunk spray. It doesn't wash off or evaporate for a long time. The spinoff of Europe is supposed to unlock value. Not when you stink in the marketplace. NRF closed at 12.73 last Friday before the spin details were filed with the sec. It closed today at 12.44, down 2.3% for the week when VNQ rose 1.3%. That's a spread of 3.6% from the index. That's the stink effect.
As to NSAM, last Friday it closed at 14.73. They just announced that their new acquisition will add 7 cents of cad to 2016 earnings. Today it closed at 14.84, up a whopping 11 cents (7/10ths of 1%). Up 11 cents on news of another 7 cents of cad. That's the stink effect.
No "share swap" within or about the Northstar group is pending, just like "one-to-six" is not a reverse split.
I believe you are having trouble articulating a germane question because you don't understand the transactions that are pending.
I am not a mind reader. How can I speculate on what value, if any, a share swap produces when no share swap is pending? Words have meaning. Terms of art have precise definitions. Sloppy terminology produces gibberish questions.
You post what is going to happen. When I believe you understand the transactions which are going to take place, I will answer questions.
No such thing as a "one-to-six reverse split". When one share changes to six shares, that's a regular stock split in a 6 for 1 ratio, otherwise stated as 6:1.
Change the word, "to" to "for" And you have a reverse split where you end up with 1 share for every 6 held, a 1 for 6 ratio, otherwise stated as 1:6.
NRF is doing neither of the above. However, from a math standpoint, a 6 for 1 split would call for a 26.667 cent annual dividend from 1.60 whereas a 1 for 6 reverse would call for a 9.60 annual dividend. Anything different would be a change in dividend.
No go re-read the press release to understand what nrf is doing.
You have a constitutional right to be wrong.
Short at the close on 10/22 is also short NRE without a later covering transaction. Of course a short can cover with a trade date after 10/19 either by buying NRF regular way (which is pre-split with NRE attached) or by buying both WIs in appropriate amounts. A short can also cover by buying the separate stocks beginning on 11/2. However, the short liability for NRE attaches at the close of business on 10/22.
As to ex date, there is no ex date like there is with a regular cash dividend. If you don't think the price adjustment does not attach to the when issued shares beginning on 10/20, you are wrong.
I'm not optimistic that NRE will trade at a much higher multiple initially unless European investors pile into a NYSE listed stock. If NRE were listed on the London exchange (with ADRs for US trading), I'd be more hopeful.
As it is, I see the stink of NRF attaching to NRE. Same bunch of greedy pigs with both hands in the cookie jar.
Second question first: Yup, if you are short NRF at the close of business on 10/22, you are also short NRE.
To illustrate: You are short 6,000 NRF on 10/22. You are short 1,000 NRE and 3,000 post-split NRF.
Regular way trading settles 3 business days after the trade date. A trade on Monday, 10/19 settles on Thursday, 10/22. All trading on Monday, 10/19 is as it is now, NRF pre-split with NRE attached. A buy or sell on Tuesday, 10/20 will not settle until Friday, 10/23 so the 10/22 record date is missed.
In order to allow NRE to trade on a stand-alone basis before 11/2 when post-distribution trading begins, you must allow NRF to trade on an EX-NRE basis (without the right to receive nre). So, beginning on 10/20, the first day which will NOT settle by 10/22, the record date, NRF will trade two different ways:
NRF (same symbol) continues to trade on a pre-split basis with NRE attached until the close on Friday 10/30.
Because NRE will trade on a when issued basis beginning on 10/20 (and ending at the close on 10/30) with the symbol NRE-WI, NRF will trade on an ex-NRE basis (and also on a post-reverse split basis) with the symbol NRF-WI.
To illustrate assuming perfect parity, meaning no other market force changes the value of the shares between the close on 10/19 and the open on 10/20. I'll also assume fractions are allowed. Assume NRF closes on 10/19 at 15.00, which includes the value of NRE of 3.00. If the distribution were on a 1 for 1 basis and there were no reverse split, NRF-WI would open on 10/20 at 12.00 and NRE-WI would open at 3.00. 12 + 3 = 15 at perfect parity.
However, the distribution ratio is 1 for 6 so NRE will open at 18.00 with perfect parity. However, you only have 1/6th share of NRE-WI, so it's only worth 3.00 in your hands.
If there were no split, NRF-WI would open at 12.00 with perfect parity. But, there is a 1 for 2 reverse split. Thus, NRF-WI will open at 24.00 per share with perfect parity. BUT, you now own 1/2 share so value is equal.
Using your numbers, 18,000 is not a gain. It's an ordinary dividend to the extent it is not return of capital. To the extent taxable, it will not qualify for lower tax rates on "qualified dividends". Yes, you could be looking at paying income taxes on 18,000 at ordinary tax rates. That is why all should demand that NRF provide an estimate of the tax status of this distribution.
You do not understand the meaning of this?
"........ each NorthStar Realty common stockholder will receive shares of NRE common stock on a one-for-six basis, before giving effect to the one-for-two reverse stock split."
It's called reading comprehension. I suggest you take as many reading comprehension courses as are necessary for you to grasp the meaning of the above quote. In the meantime, I suggest you stick with index mutual funds.
Hint: There is a difference between "one-for-six" and "six-for-one".
Perhaps your communication experts, Larry, Moe and Curly, can explain why VNQ was up .71% today while NRF, a member of that index ETF, was down 2.04%. That's a difference of 2.75%. While we're on the subject of the market's reaction to this morning's NRF press release, NSAM traded down 2.17%.
I'm sure it has nothing to do with the lack of guidance on trivial matters like future dividend intentions and the effect on NSAM's fees of the spinoff. I know the theory: Let the market wallow in uncertainty over these trivial matters because the brilliant lawyers tell you the less you say which is not historical fact, the less likely you are to get sued.
Be sure to give Larry, Moe and Curly some bonus shares for today's great communications job."
See my post on IV board.
Don't just complain here. Email management with your complaints and requests for info. Do the same with the analysts.....ask them to press management to change the way it communicates with shareholders and the market.
More time to review complete financial date before holding CC.
Reinstate forward cad guidance.
Get involved. Don't just sit there and take it.
Try the tax section of the prospectus first. At IRS, you get general rules. In the prospectus, it is transaction-specific.
As to guidance on pct roc, nrf has never given this. I suggest you email the company and demand it. I also suggest you email all the analysts to ask them to press for tax guidance at the CC.