Was a great earnings report. 4Q per share down due to early issuance of shares for ALL acquisition.
If they are correct about 5% to 8% accretion from ALL portfolio, 2015 will be a great year. I was thinking 3 cent dividend increase in April. Now I'm thinking 5 cents.
With 11/6 as the ex date we are now 12/13 (weeks) into accretion x 40 cents = 36.9 cents as of today. I suggest using 40 cents for easy eyeball adjustment.
1.60 / 9% = 17.78 + .40 = 18.18 or less today to get 9% or more on your purchase price. You can bet your mother's wedding ring that Hamo is grinding his teeth over the low price. Not only is his cost of capital way too high, the number of griffin shares to be issued depends on the price.....the higher the price, the fewer shares issued. With the vote on 11/28 enabling a closing on 12/1, Hamo has one shot to get the price up.....earnings and the cc on 11/6. I expect him to go as far as legally allowed to pump the price.
Just bought another 2,722 nsam in an ira @ 17.4855 ('cause that's all the cash I had there).
IMO, much bigger pop on nsam with earnings than nrf.
Registration of griffin share issuance effective, so no sec hurdle to merger. Amended proxy on merger filed yesterday. Looks like final. You get your notice soon. Meeting 11/28 to vote.
I vote electronically via Fidelity which notifies me on the website that an open proxy can be voted. Real easy as Fidelity links directly to ballot on proxyvote website.
Told ya. And the dead cat did bounce. Let's see 8.67 to 10.00 is a 15.3% bounce from 30% down.
But, ya gotta have the guts to press the button while everybody else is selling like panicked lemmings.
No guts, no glory (or dinner trades).
KMP has blown my tax plan out of the water. I have no chance of avoiding all the socialist pig's surtaxes. It is better to make money and pay the tax than not make the money.
Like the crude saying goes, when rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it. I just have no way of getting agi below the thresholds, so I'll take what's handed to me and pay the tax.
Just bought another flip lot in nrf at 17.7001.
Forgot to add. Wait until price turns up meaning selling done. You give up some off the bottom, but you don't catch a falling knife.
ARCP rubbing off on nrf. Counting the accreted dividend, it's another bite at the 9% apple.
NSAM rightfully hurt by WSJ article, but we know than nsam's fundraising is way ahead of budget. Yeah, the info is public for those who take the time to track it promptly, but 98% of the market does not know how much nsam raised in 3 Q because they are too slow and lazy. The nsam pop next week just got bigger. The brave will buy because of the info learned here.
8.67 is down 30%.......much more "crooks at the books" than financial substance. Maybe a dead cat bounce today when the pros sense the selling is done or a very nice buy for long term hold. This will take a while to settle down, but so much below book value has to be a bargain.
Article on nontraded reits in today's print edition of WSJ. Gist is money-raising in the area is declining. Also, they are having trouble going liquid at a profit due to stalling real estate prices and high fees.
Certainly a negative article for nsam's growth rate if predictive. We'll see if nsam's money raising slows down.
So far, it's increasing. Plus I think the liquidity event for Healthcare (the nontraded) will be a merger into a publicly traded spinoff of NRF's healthcare properties. Might be 3 years down the road, but it's Hamo's way out if he cannot get a better price elsewhere.
ARCP now down 24% from yesterday's close. All it took was one 8-K disclosing what appears to be deliberate fraud in its financial statements.
In considering very large positions in your portfolio, always ask yourself whether you can financially and emotionally take an overnight 50% hit. It can and does happen. I forgot the name of the small biotech which PFE just terminated a drug development deal.....down 53% overnight.
Company spent over 300 million in 3Q buying back in the neighborhood of 10 million shares. Grupo now owns 84%. In addition Larrea bought over 700,000 shares from late July-August. He now owns more than 1 million shares.
IMO, it won't be long before Grupo takes us out at a small premium so it can have 100% of the fruits of the huge increase in production which is only a few years away. IMO, Grupo keeps on having scco buy back discount stock for as long as it can before announcing a takeout which will require a premium.
Nothing we can do about it, imo.