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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 310 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 57 minutes ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Wow, new all time high today

    by kenpalley2000 Oct 30, 2014 11:33 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 30, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    52-week, yes. All-time, no. Hit 57.78 in May 2013 just before Bernanke opened his taper mouth.

  • Reply to

    Wow, new all time high today

    by kenpalley2000 Oct 30, 2014 11:33 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 30, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    Was a great earnings report. 4Q per share down due to early issuance of shares for ALL acquisition.
    If they are correct about 5% to 8% accretion from ALL portfolio, 2015 will be a great year. I was thinking 3 cent dividend increase in April. Now I'm thinking 5 cents.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 4:11 PM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 30, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    The country is overflowing with clueless people. Unfortunately, they vote and reproduce.

  • With 11/6 as the ex date we are now 12/13 (weeks) into accretion x 40 cents = 36.9 cents as of today. I suggest using 40 cents for easy eyeball adjustment.

    1.60 / 9% = 17.78 + .40 = 18.18 or less today to get 9% or more on your purchase price. You can bet your mother's wedding ring that Hamo is grinding his teeth over the low price. Not only is his cost of capital way too high, the number of griffin shares to be issued depends on the price.....the higher the price, the fewer shares issued. With the vote on 11/28 enabling a closing on 12/1, Hamo has one shot to get the price up.....earnings and the cc on 11/6. I expect him to go as far as legally allowed to pump the price.

  • Reply to

    NRF and NSAM

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:40 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 30, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    Just bought another 2,722 nsam in an ira @ 17.4855 ('cause that's all the cash I had there).

    IMO, much bigger pop on nsam with earnings than nrf.

  • Reply to

    Griffin

    by dar200 Oct 30, 2014 9:45 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 30, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    I did not say the nrf proxy was on Fidelity's website. I just described voting thru Fidelity.

  • Reply to

    NRF and NSAM

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:40 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 30, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    Thinking about it doesn't make you any money. Ya hafta swing the bat when the ball is at the plate.

  • dar200 by dar200 Oct 30, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Registration of griffin share issuance effective, so no sec hurdle to merger. Amended proxy on merger filed yesterday. Looks like final. You get your notice soon. Meeting 11/28 to vote.

    I vote electronically via Fidelity which notifies me on the website that an open proxy can be voted. Real easy as Fidelity links directly to ballot on proxyvote website.

  • Reply to

    OT--buy ARCP under 8.67-OT

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:33 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 29, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    Told ya. And the dead cat did bounce. Let's see 8.67 to 10.00 is a 15.3% bounce from 30% down.

    But, ya gotta have the guts to press the button while everybody else is selling like panicked lemmings.

    No guts, no glory (or dinner trades).

  • dar200 by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    Ex on 11/6, just in time for earnings. Pay date is 11/14.

  • Reply to

    NRF and NSAM

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:40 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 29, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    Correction, buy was 17.7101, so sell at 17.9180 means 1,040 dinner trade in 51 minutes. Money with mouth means money into mouth.

  • Reply to

    NRF and NSAM

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:40 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 29, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    KMP has blown my tax plan out of the water. I have no chance of avoiding all the socialist pig's surtaxes. It is better to make money and pay the tax than not make the money.

    Like the crude saying goes, when rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it. I just have no way of getting agi below the thresholds, so I'll take what's handed to me and pay the tax.

    Just bought another flip lot in nrf at 17.7001.

  • Reply to

    OT--buy ARCP under 8.67-OT

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:33 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 29, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    Told ya.......a 1,083 dinner trade in less than an hour.

  • Reply to

    NRF and NSAM

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:40 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    Money with mouth: In nsam at 17.3216.

  • Reply to

    OT--buy ARCP under 8.67-OT

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:33 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Forgot to add. Wait until price turns up meaning selling done. You give up some off the bottom, but you don't catch a falling knife.

  • dar200 by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    ARCP rubbing off on nrf. Counting the accreted dividend, it's another bite at the 9% apple.

    NSAM rightfully hurt by WSJ article, but we know than nsam's fundraising is way ahead of budget. Yeah, the info is public for those who take the time to track it promptly, but 98% of the market does not know how much nsam raised in 3 Q because they are too slow and lazy. The nsam pop next week just got bigger. The brave will buy because of the info learned here.

  • 8.67 is down 30%.......much more "crooks at the books" than financial substance. Maybe a dead cat bounce today when the pros sense the selling is done or a very nice buy for long term hold. This will take a while to settle down, but so much below book value has to be a bargain.

  • Article on nontraded reits in today's print edition of WSJ. Gist is money-raising in the area is declining. Also, they are having trouble going liquid at a profit due to stalling real estate prices and high fees.

    Certainly a negative article for nsam's growth rate if predictive. We'll see if nsam's money raising slows down.
    So far, it's increasing. Plus I think the liquidity event for Healthcare (the nontraded) will be a merger into a publicly traded spinoff of NRF's healthcare properties. Might be 3 years down the road, but it's Hamo's way out if he cannot get a better price elsewhere.

  • dar200 by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    ARCP now down 24% from yesterday's close. All it took was one 8-K disclosing what appears to be deliberate fraud in its financial statements.

    In considering very large positions in your portfolio, always ask yourself whether you can financially and emotionally take an overnight 50% hit. It can and does happen. I forgot the name of the small biotech which PFE just terminated a drug development deal.....down 53% overnight.

  • dar200 by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    Company spent over 300 million in 3Q buying back in the neighborhood of 10 million shares. Grupo now owns 84%. In addition Larrea bought over 700,000 shares from late July-August. He now owns more than 1 million shares.

    IMO, it won't be long before Grupo takes us out at a small premium so it can have 100% of the fruits of the huge increase in production which is only a few years away. IMO, Grupo keeps on having scco buy back discount stock for as long as it can before announcing a takeout which will require a premium.

    Nothing we can do about it, imo.

EDE
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