You're right on 158.2 thru 7/23. My eyes get bad at the end of the day. I had this on my score sheet as supplement 6. Now this date and amount is in supplement 7, the preface to which says it replaces all prior supplements.
So, income 2 revised.....172.7 thru 8/11 vs 158.2 thru 7/23 = 14.5 in 19 days = .763 per day.
Business days is more accurate, but I'm generally too lazy. In can make a big difference over short periods, like 6/28 thru 7/8 which included 4th of July holiday. But over a longer period, say a quarter, it has less impact on the average.
BTW, 1Q = 150 million in 90 days = 1.667 per day
2Q= 208 million in 91 days = 2.286 per day
So far 42 days into 3Q = 111.6 million = 2.657 per day
The trend is our friend to finish 2014 closer to 900 million than 800.
Income 2 collected 172.7 million thru 8/11 vs 153.2 thru 7.23....14.5 million in 19 days....ave of .763 per day.
Healthcare collected 434.0 thru 8/11 vs 369.2 thru 7/25....64.8 million in 17 days....ave of 3.81 per day.
The average of the daily highs and lows for the 5 trading days ending today is 57.093. Thus 95% x 57.093 = 54.23835 which the ETP drip administrator will round to 54.2384.
I am willing to bet that three years from now the total return (dividends plus price appreciation) on NSAM will be at least double the total return on NRF. I expect this because the deck is stacked in NSAM's favor, the new honey pot from which the bigshots will take incredibly outrageous compensation in the form of free shares.
Yield investors....NRF is the place to be.
People who want price appreciation at the cost of current yield, NSAM is the stock to overweight.
Looks like I wasn't the only one expecting an offering by Tuesday night. We'll call this the no-offering rally. It has a long way to go, imo.
I believe Hamo is pulling his hair out and spitting nails over NRF's yield at over 9% when a blend of peer companies in different sectors indicates a yield of 6%. 1.60 at 6% = a price of 26.667, and here we are at less than 18. Hamo wants to split the dividend by assets......75% equity and 25% mortgage. I think it is more appropriate to split the dividend by sector cad.....I'm guessing at 60% equity reit cad vs 40% mreit.
If I am in the ballpark with 60-40, then 96 cents of the dividend comes from equity reit operations. Capitalize that at 5% and you get 19.20 for the equity reit dividend. 40% x 1.60 from mreit cad = 64 cents. Capitalize that at 10% = 6.40 for the mreit dividend. Thus 19.20 + 6.40 = 25.60 combined price. And here we are at less than 18....more than a 30% discount to where it should be.
If the 5-year rule prevents a tax free spinoff of healthcare or the mreit business is too small to stand alone, Hamo can issue tracking stock. Internally (which is already done) separate NRF into two divisions......equity reit and mortgage reit. Then issue a tracking stock for each division. NRFE = equity reit division. NRFM = mortgage reit division. One share of NRF is surrendered in exchange for 1 share of NRFE and 1/3 share of NRFM. The dividend for each tracking stock is determined solely by the cad generated by each division.
This can also be done by just issuing E and M stock. Then NRF = sum of both divisions, E = equity reit division and M = mortgage reit division. Then the price of NRF will trade at only a tiny discount or premium to the sum of the prices of NRFE and NRFM......the arbitrage people would see to that.
So Hamo has more than one way to skin the cat. Trust me. Hamo HATES the current price of NRF. He WILL do something about it.
Get a new news feed....one that does not use the pony express to deliver. Plus, it wasn't nsam. It was Income 2.
"On July 18, 2014, NorthStar Real Estate Income II, Inc. ("NorthStar Income II"), through a subsidiary of its operating partnership, originated a $24.9 million subordinate interest (the "Subordinate Interest") to partially capitalize the development of a $97.8 million, 313-unit high-rise multifamily project located in downtown Nashville, Tennessee (the "Property")."
Notice the date and can your newsfeed.
Companies which do reverse splits to get the price up because it has fallen so much are companies in trouble operationally. Yeah, their post - reverse split price typically continues to go down, not because of the reverse split, but because the operational trouble continues after the reverse.
Companies like NRF who are not in operational or falling price trouble who do reverse splits for reasons other than falling price typically do not suffer the same fate.
First, it's only 4 million for a then 50% interest. Don't know what pct the July 5 million bought, but suspect nsam's 50% will decrease as more money comes in. NSAM gets 50 basis points on any "syndicated investments". I presume that means money raised on the crowdfunding website. Plus it gets a 1% management fee.....on what base, I don't know. It also gets 15% of excess cash flow, however that is defined, regardless of it's ownership percent.
If Fund Alliance succeeds with a better fund-raising website, I expect NSAM will earn a very high return on its 4 million risk.
And you are right.....management companies don't typically buy into operating companies or assets. I suspect a very cheap entry into a start-up fundraiser was the driver.
Lookee what I found in NSAM's 10-Q:
"In June 2014, the Company acquired a 50.0% interest in Fund Alliance Corporation, a crowd-funding technology platform company for $4.0 million. The Company accounts for this investment under the equity method. In addition to earning a proportionate share of net income, the Company will also earn a net 0.50% fee on any syndicated investments, a minimum base management fee of 1.0% and an incentive fee of 15.0% on contractually defined excess cash flows. As of June 30, 2014, the carrying value of the investment was $4.0 million. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2014, the Company did not recognize any income related to this investment."
NSAM also had 111.5 million of unrestricted cash as of 8/8.
A google on Fund Alliance Corporation found it sold another 5 million of stock in July. I conclude nsam did not buy any of the July round because it was not disclosed as a subsequent event.. This is interesting. NSAM made its first investment in a newly managed company.
Turned chicken. Used the proceeds of Friday's sale to buy as many as I could at 18.0212 on the rebound off 17.96.
I don't think we get an offering tonight because NSAM posted its estimated cad last night. Methodology = estimated 2H x 2. There is no projection into 2015. That's why Griffin revenue not included in estimated cad.....just a footnote as an add-on as with future nrf offerings. I think if an offering was to be last night or tonight, they would have held nsam presentation to include 2H revenue in cad.
Oh well, I didn't get hurt on the swap. I sold 6,225 and bought back 6,249 with the proceeds. Whoop-dee-doo. I picked up 24 shares. I get another 12 bucks of dividend. I'll tell my wife I did a drink trade.
Sure am. 42 million dollars divided by 19 per share = 2.2 million shares, not 22 million.
My bad. I don't use decimal points on the calculator......I do eyeball decimals so I can use only significant integers. Tired eyes. I blew that one.
42 million dollars is still rape.
At 7/31 settlement which is 7/28 trade date:
7.1 million for NRF, down from 14.4 at 7/15 which was 7/10 trade date, down 50.7%. 7.1 / 197 = 3.6% short.
3.1 million for NSAM, down from 5.5 at 7/15, down 43.6%. 3.1 / 194 = 1.60% short.
I can't say the shorts were dumb this time when they covered in droves during the downturn in price.
They plan on issuing 42 million of giveaway shares to nsam bigshots.....annualized of 3Q&4Q. At 19 per share, that's over 22 million shares with less than 200 million outstanding now.....over 11% of the entire company. That's absolutely outrageous!!.
Was not a guess. Was a reasonable inference based on spinoff norms......the sum of the first post=spin dividends is never (almost) less than the last pre-spin dividend. Hamo would break that mold only over his dead body.
Griffin has nothing to do with it. Try some forward thinking from the earnings press release. They had 282 million of unrestricted cash at 8/5. We do not know how much principal is to be collected or how much in securities they will sell.
They need about 120 million for the August dividends, 167 million to close on the industrial deal, 100 million to close on the London deal.....387 of disclosed near term needs with 182 million of free cash (Hamo likes to keep at least 100 million of cash).
So, 387 - 182 = 205 deficit. Yup, they can use their lines of credit. That buys time for Hamo to get the price up some more, but he needs new news to do that. I conclude that Hamo will wait if he can produce new news. If not, the offering comes now, imo.