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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 351 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2014 3:48 PM Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • dar200 dar200 Nov 11, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    This week.

    My guess is tonight or tomorrow night.

  • dar200 dar200 Nov 11, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    The cited blurb continues,

    "The $23.50 valuation - implying 36% return potential when including the dividend - is a conservative one, says MLV, noting the use of the lower of two property portfolio valuation metrics, and the further discounting of that by 15%. Also, MLV has only given credit for NRF's ownership stake in current portfolios, and nothing for the likely ability to boost the size of these."

    Different methodology. Looks like they read my posts last week. But, they are faster than the other analysts who have not yet spoken about last week's info. Lazy. Waiting for the spoon in presentation slides.

  • Reply to

    Buyout coming

    by dar200 Oct 29, 2014 10:09 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 11, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    10-Q has been filed.

    3Q buyback was 10.149 million shares costing 323.4 million, a weighted average cost per share of 31.87.
    Combine this with Larrea's purchase and something is highly likely:

    They know something is coming which makes these big purchases now very profitable in the not too distant future. Grupo is known for its over-reaching greed (in my opinion). It's on display now.

  • S&P announced yesterday it is creating Real Estate as a new sector in its indexes effective around Aug 2016.
    The S&P 500 now has 10 sectors. Real Estate makes 11.

    Within the sector, there are industry groups.....Equity Real Estate and Real Estate Management & Development.

    Members of this new sector and industry will be announced later, but well before Aug 2016.

    It would be a helluva boost to be added to this new sector. Size matters here, an argument against splitting up the equity assets. Adds an argument for spinning off mortgage business. Gives both time to bulk up.

    While I doubt this is a near term market mover, I would bet this becomes a subject of discussion at a board meeting pretty soon. Can and should NRF and NSAM configure themselves to get in this index sector by its inception?

  • Reply to

    NRF versus NSAM

    by palladin_02160 Nov 10, 2014 8:18 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 9:02 PM Flag

    It's all right here, with specifics, facts and calculations. All you have to do is read my posts beginning with early December, 2013. Actually, you should first read NRF's last 10-K and then the NSAM prospectus. THEN read my posts and it will all be clear as a bell.

  • Reply to

    Site visit report

    by kenpalley2000 Nov 10, 2014 2:05 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 8:48 PM Flag

    Thank you. All shareholders who have the opportunity should evaluate a sun community with an owner's eye and report the results to this board.

    Ken, did you stay there? If yes, how was the reservation process? Did you tell manager you were a shareholder? If yes, I hope it was toward the end of your visit.

    Owners or renters of manufactured houses should also report their impressions.....you can put your customer hat on then put your part owner hat on.....opine on the place from two perspectives.

    Occupants can also report news events here.....like notice of rent increase. What was the percentage increase? Report policy changes here also. It's nice to know operational tidbits before they show up in quarterly reports.

  • Nice details in both. First for nsam so I suggest all read

    NRF got 268.6 million for the 15 million shares issued directly, an average of 17.9067 from 17.95 price to underwriters. Subsequent to 9/30 but before the ex date they closed 5.3 million of the short sale for 93.8 million of proceeds, an average of 17.6981.

  • Reply to

    Want a dinner trade?

    by dar200 Nov 10, 2014 11:47 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Did not take 18.37 when I had chance because I believe when the short term profit-taking is done I'll get a fast grand out of both buys.

    The good news is nsam recovered early to all time intraday and closing highs.

  • Reply to

    Want a dinner trade?

    by dar200 Nov 10, 2014 11:47 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    Doubled down at 18.30 hoping closing push will give me dinner out.

  • Reply to

    Fidelity buying drip shares today

    by dar200 Nov 10, 2014 9:22 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    Yup. Fidelity has no skin in the game. They just buy until the drip dollars are gone. Then they charge the client the weighted average cost per share acquired. It makes no difference to them how high or low the average cost is. To them, it's an in and out of the drip dollars on the pay date.

    They do not buy on the settlement date. The appropriate day to measure whether Fidelity's price to client is closer to the hod or lod is the trade date, which is today. As of now, hod = 18.80 and lod = 18.26. Today has been a steady drop in price. So when we see our drip price we will know whether Fidelity bought in morning or afternoon, assuming no big increase going into the close.

  • Reply to

    Want a dinner trade?

    by dar200 Nov 10, 2014 11:47 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Not the first time I have guessed wrong and won't be the last. My in was just a head fake by sellers. Stop for a while, let the price go up a little, then step on the gas getting out.

    Nevertheless, I have sold 258,815 shares of NRF so far this year and have not lost a penny on any of them. I just have to wait.

  • Reply to

    Want a dinner trade?

    by dar200 Nov 10, 2014 11:47 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    I'm in at 18.47 up from 18.42.

  • As soon as traders saw no strong push up at the open the profit-taking selling started. Looks to me like sellers finished in nsam. Have not seen a stop yet in NRF at 18.44.

    If you want a dinner trade in NRF wait to see a turn up in price, like 18.49 from 18.44 if that is the low. 18.44 may not be the low, so watch level 2 for the upturn from whatever the low may be. I see now it is 18.43 so sellers are not done.

    The pros who want to buy are waiting for sellers to exhaust themselves chasing a falling bid. Then the buying starts. Wait for price to turn up a few cents. Then buy for a dinner trade (or a small flip).

  • Reply to

    NSAM purchase AHI interest

    by dar200 Nov 10, 2014 8:58 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    NRF will effectively control the to be formed joint venture with AHI via Flaherty.

    " Following the acquisition by NSAM, NSAM's investment will be structured as a joint venture ("AHI Ventures"), with the principals of AHI (owning approximately 49%) and Mr. James F. Flaherty III, one of NSAM's partners (owning approximately 5%). The transaction is anticipated to close shortly following the closing of NorthStar's merger with Griffin-American (the "merger") pursuant to the merger agreement. AHI Ventures will also issue a warrant to Mr. Flaherty that will permit him at any time during the five year period after the closing to invest up to an additional $5 million in AHI Ventures at a valuation 27% higher than the initial valuation. Mr. Flaherty will also be granted a 5% profits interest that would entitle him to receive 5% of capital proceeds of AHI Ventures after a return of capital to the initial investors (NSAM and the principals of AHI) and current cash flow distributions. At the closing of the transaction, the parties will enter into an amended and restated limited liability company agreement of AHI Ventures (the "LLC Agreement") which will provide for the organizational, economic and governance arrangements of the joint venture and the rights and obligations of each of the joint venture members."

    Like Hamo, Flaherty takes care of Flaherty.

  • Reply to

    NSAM purchase AHI interest

    by dar200 Nov 10, 2014 8:58 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 10, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    No. NSAM does not have enough people to manage griffin properties effectively.

    Eventually, imo, there will be a merger of AHI into NSAM. At the same time, other griffin healthcare properties will merge with a spun-off NRF Healthcare, but I don't see this happening soon for income tax reasons.

    BTW, a publicly traded NRF Healthcare then becomes the liquidity event for nontraded healthcare reits via merger for publicly traded stock.

    Hamo is building a healthcare property empire and a much bigger nsam will be the manager.

  • Fidelity buys drip shares 3 business days before the pay date. While stock market is open tomorrow, it is a bank holiday, therefore not a settlement day. Was not positive so I asked Fidelity. They confirmed they buy today for 11/14 settlement.

  • NRF filed 424B3 this morning:

    Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, NSAM will purchase its interest in AHI Ventures (as defined below) from the principals of AHI for cash and stock consideration of approximately $57.5 million, consisting of $37.5 million of cash and $20.0 million of NSAM common stock (which stock is subject to certain lock-up and vesting restrictions). The stock consideration will be calculated based on the ten day volume weighted average price of NSAM's common stock for the ten trading day period ending on the closing of the second to last trading day prior to the closing date. In addition, during the five year period following the closing, NSAM may be required to issue up to $15 million (but not to exceed $3 million in any one year) in additional shares of NSAM common stock to the principals of AHI if AHI Ventures achieves certain performance criteria. Further, NSAM will contribute $2 million in shares of common stock to an equity incentive plan for the benefit of certain AHI Ventures employees.

    NSAM already using stock as currency. Lots of earn out incentives a good sign og confidence by sellers in AHI growth.

    Much more in filing. This purchase will happen when griffin merger closes, which I expect will be effective at 12:00am on Dec 1. This makes for easy monthly item (such as rents) cutoff....no daily prorations to do.

    This means 47% of the fundraising bump from griffin shareholders reinvesting proceeds will hit nsam's 4Q cad. Don't know if market is fast enough to figure this out without spoonfeeding from nsam. SEC filing today suggests nsam will include in this week's spoonfeeding. If so, 25 may come before year end.

  • Reply to

    Earnings pop

    by dar200 Nov 7, 2014 4:29 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 7, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    OOPS, Fidelity just changes the closing prices to 20.14 and 18.71. Big deal. A penny makes little difference to the above. Not worth redoing it.

  • Told ya nsam's earnings pop would be bigger than nrf's.

    NSAM....11/5 close on ex dividend basis = 17.90 to 20.16 today.....up 12.63%.

    NRF......11/5 close on ex dividend basis = 18.08 to 18.70 today......up 3.43%.

    NSAM pop = 3.68 times NRF pop.

    More to come from both as slow market comes to realization.

    Market feeling safer about NRF dividend, imo, and that 8.56% yield (1.60 / 18.70) is a great deal. I expect nrf will hit 20 by the end of the year (8% yield) absent bad news or more with good news.

    Don't have a good feel about NSAM timing to 25. If next week's presentation materials give enough info that even a dumbbell can reasonably conclude that 2015 cad will be over a buck, then 25 will come by year end. If not, wait till March.

    I'm confident that my combined prediction of 40 to 50 by year end will prove correct. We're at 38.86 now so it only takes another 2.93% to hit the low end. It takes 15.80% to hit 45 combined. I think that is highly likely if nsam gives us a good data dump next week. It takes 28.67% to hit 50, which I think is highly unlikely because the market has not seen enough quarters of nsam growth regardless of the info we get next week.

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