NRF was dropped from the mortgage reit index last December. Big etf holders have already sold.
This ain't a "quasi" classification. It's a really big deal. Tutes and more analysts will be comparing nrf to other reits in equity reit indexes instead of mortgage reit indexes. In an equity reit comparison the yield just jumps out and screams, "TOO HIGH.....TOO GOOD TO PASS UP".
MSCI is the gold standard for indexes. More index ETFs follow MSCI indexes than any other index provider. Inclusion is a VERY big deal:
1. To be compared to other equity reits.
2. To finally stop being looked at as a mortgage reit.
I give you 99.9% that NRF will be added to the RMZ, effective for trading beginning on 6/1. DB estimates this will requite a net buy of 23 million shares by etfs and funds which track this index and it's sub index, diversified equity reits.
Wanna play the pop? Buy June 19 calls.
No action necessary with nrf stock. All can be done with distribution ratio.
If 1 for 1 would produce a 2 nre, then 1 for 10 will produce a 20 nre.
Br the time this is done there will be over 400 million nrf shares out, so 1 for 10 puts 40 million nre out.
Also, if nre equity is 800 million, then 40 million shares = 2 per share of equity. Hamo is hoping this equity trades for 4 due to higher multiples paid on european reits.
Also, if nrf is trading at 20, taking 2 out leaves 18 for nrf plus a hoped-for 4 in nre = 22 combined post spin.
If all works out like the above, it's a 10% bump to nrf price.
First learn the definition of "pipeline" in a reit or acquisition context. Then read the transcript on seeking alpo.
Then illuminati's knowledge will be illuminated.
Just keep going up the ladder until you get into the discount program or talk to Chuck, whichever comes first.
All they have to do is register your shares with the drip administrator. Others at Schwab got into the discount program after they made "the call".
Ya gotta read The Street's insightful comments on NRF today, posted at 5:17 pm.
Do they really expect people to pay for this kind of research when they can't even get the company right?
I agree. I would never buy one because the fees are way too high.
Nevertheless, the lack of daily trading (gyrations) is an attraction to a lot of people who can't stomach the volatility. They put their money in for a monthly check (or drip) and something happens in 5 to 10 years. Lack of daily valuations is a blessing for them.
The discount drip price is 95% of the average of the daily highs and lows for the 5 trading days ending the day before the pay date. Since the pay date is 5/15, the calculation period begins today, 5/8, and ends with 5/14.
I will report the discount price here after the close on 5/14.
Price is too low for both. Not even considering selling any flippers at today's prices, including the 5,000 nsam I bought for under 20 a few weeks ago. The likelihood of my selling any of the core positions is even more remote.
I will not repeat some posts I made on the IV board.
NRF had a lousy quarter with hotels. Read the CLDT earnings press release for their comments on joint venture hotels. This can only improve, imo.
My big relief is that Griffin was not dilutive. When they announced the acquisition, nrf predicted cad neutral, but there were skeptical questions from analysts on the acquisition CC.
NSAM had a dismal quarter sequentially, all caused by a huge drop in fees from the nontradeds. Thankfully, the CC revealed that 2Q nontraded fees will be 30 million higher than 1Q. NSAM not worried about dol proposed regulations, a relief.
NRF has huge pipeline which means more equity issued which means more fees for nsam. NRF not having a good price increase so far today relative to other equity reits, so it may be a bargain for yield investors. I expect NRF will be added to RMZ with announcement May 12 and effective for trading on 6/1. DB estimates joining RMZ will require a net buy of 23 million shares between 5/13 and 6/1.
IMO, all one needs with nrf/nsam is patience. 2Q will be better than 1Q, especially for nsam.
That's not the way ordinary income is calculated. A distribution reduces your tax basis in the partnership which increases the gain you will recognize upon sale. It also increases your cash and lowers the market price of the units, all other market forces being equal. However a distribution, per se, does not come back at you as ordinary income.
The ordinary income portion of your gain is determined using the look-through method. Your sales price of your unit is grossed-up to a hypothetical sale price of all the units (market cap of units). Total liabilities are added to the market cap of partners's equity to arrive at a hypothetical sales price of all the assets. The partnership then determines the amount of partnership gain which would be ordinary income in such a hypothetical sale of all the assets and then divides it by the units outstanding. That is your ordinary income per unit sold. The same is done with "unrecaptured section 1250 gain" (so-called 25% gain). The balance of YOUR gain, if any, is a long term capital gain if your units were held more than one year.
All gain attributable to "section 1245 property" (of which the partnership has a lot) is ordinary. That's why such a big portion of a recognized gain is ordinary. The depreciation on this property reduces ordinary income (and your basis) and thus comes back at you as ordinary income. The distribution by itself is not the trigger. The big trigger is section 1245 recapture.
It goes ex dividend on 5/14. Cad per share will only be fair. Nontraded sales will be way down from 4Q.
Big acquisition fees from Healthcare 4Q and early Jan cash will be in 2Q, not 1Q.
Current 21.50 is 21.40 ex div. Your break even is 22.75 = a 6.3% rise from 21.40. I would not do it.
This posted this morning by Zacks, that brilliant, insightful stock research company:
" By Zacks Equity Research
1 hour ago
Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO) may be one such company. The firm has earnings coming up pretty soon, and events are shaping up quite nicely for their report."
I'm sure the geniuses at Zacks are keeping their eyes wide open for the earnings report which was released on April 24. DUH!!!
NO, they said 2H. BUT, they have not even FILED the registration statement. Lieberman's record of getting registration statements declared effective in a reasonable time is DISMAL. IF they get it done this year, it will be as of the close of business on 12/31, imo.
I don't want to get bought out. I want to be holding this stock when the big production increases turn into bigger dividends.....much bigger dividends, even at current copper prices.
If and when the endgame comes (the forced buyout), it will be at a 15% to 18% premium over then current market. Somebody will sue Grupo for breach of duty by paying too low a price (a la Minera Mexico). Grupo already controls so they don't have to pay a control premium. They just have to pay enough to win the inevitable lawsuit.
Copper still has a diversification place in my portfolio, scco is still a very low cost producer and capex will decrease when production increases unless they keep going big time on increasing production, like developing El Arco.
I intend to hold.
This clipped from a post on IV. One of them is wrong.
"Deutsche Bank have included Northstar Realty Finance NRF and Northstar Asset Management NSAM onto their short term buy list. This type of call is made by the trading desk.
The analyst, Stephen Laws, has both as his Best Ideas."
Addition to RMZ will be effective for 6/1 trading. The pop may begin after the announcement on 5/12 and get bigger toward the end of May. I think you have a very safe short term profit.
I sold some etp to harvest a tax loss and bought rgp with the proceeds after the merger was announced but before the vote. Thus no wash sale. They traded like Siamese twins since the merger ratio was fixed. Merger vote was 28th. I sold all rgp on the 27th and bought 6300 etp units with the proceeds. Glad I did.