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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 414 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 8:50 PM Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Short volume today = 66.6% of reported volume......396 / 595k = 66.55%.

    Composite volume = 1.081 million, so at a minimum, short pct of composite volume = 36.6%. That's huge.

  • dar200 dar200 Aug 27, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    As to nrf, this is from almost 29 million short at the end of Jan this year. I wonder what percentage lost money on the trade. My guess is more than 90%. Stubborn (or stupid) bunch.

    As to nsam, the 7/15 settlement date was 7/10 trade date, the spike above 20 on the griffin rumor.
    Most of this group covered at a modest profit.

  • Reply to

    DRIP summary to date

    by dar200 Aug 26, 2014 1:43 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 26, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    BTW, the survey is still open. If you drip nrf at a broker not named above OR if you paid more than 1/2 cent different from the prices paid above, please post to this thread, the name of your broker, the price you paid per share to 4 decimal places and the date it was posted to your account.

  • Looks like Schwab will be the goat this quarter.

    Drip shares bought on 8/19 when hod = 18.49 and lod = 18.10.
    Fidelity: 18.2445, .2446, .2447, .2449.....differences at the 100th of a cent are mere rounding.
    USAA, which uses Fidelity...18.2449

    Drip shares bought on 8/22 when hod = 18.54 and lod = 18.26
    Etrade....18.4264....not the highest for a change.

    Drip shares bought on 8/25 when hod = 18.70 and lod = 18.40:

    As all can see, not all drips are equal. In addition, those buying on or after the pay date are "stealing" (my opinion word) interest on the dividend cash which the broker received electronically on 8/22, the pay date. Those who bought Friday will not pay for the drip shares until tomorrow. The Monday group will not pay until Thursday. In the meantime, they use your dividend cash to pay down their lines of credit, thereby saving interest expense while paying you no interest. To me, imo, that is theft.

  • Was that a coordinated short attack or a big guy dumping both at the same time. Looking at both on a one day
    chart makes one think they are joined at the hip, which, of course they are not.

    I can't wait for the next offering hoping NSAM goes down in knee-jerk sympathy with NRF.

  • Reply to

    Calling all DRIP investors

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 26, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    What is so difficult about 4 decimal places? Is it difficulty with long division, a lousy calculator, inability to understand the criteria for posting? All of the preceding?

  • Reply to

    Calling all DRIP investors

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 26, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    Looks like Schwab has shifted to buying the day after pay date instead of on it. Let's have a post from Ameritrade and any other brokers not already mentioned unless you have a different drip price.

    Merrill, Scottrade, Interactive, Sierfert...and all others. The more brokers named, the more useful the survey.

  • Reply to

    Calling all DRIP investors

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 26, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    Two decimal places is an invalid submission. The opening post was also a reading comprehension test.

  • Reply to

    Calling all DRIP investors

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 25, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    You're lucky you don't hold ETP at Etrade. ETP offers a 5% discount on the price to drip into new units issued by ETP. Fidelity and Ameritrade automatically enrolled in the discount drip plan for all who drip etp. Schwab will enroll only if called and asked. Etrade refuses to participate. Vanguard denied such a plan existed (according to a poster on the etp website).

    The above was learned from drip surveys I placed on the ETP board.

    I have accounts at Fidelity and Ameritrade. I had accounts at Schwab and Datek which was bought by Ameritrade. The only reason I have anything at Ameritrade is I like their streamer better than Fidelity's.
    All I have at Ameritrade now is NSAM. I moved the NRF to Fidelity. Since the amount was more than 100 grand, amtd called me and asked why the move. I told them I don't like the way they drip.

    Actually, the call came from a young-sounding female. I actually said, "Because I don't like the way you drip". She said, "Excuse me?" I said, "Not you. I don't like the way Ameritrade reinvests dividends."

    It has been almost 10 years since I left Schwab, so I don't know how good their website is now. I can say that Fidelity is head and shoulders above anything I have seen. If you have more than 1 million, you get red carpet treatment.

  • Reply to

    Finally 18.50

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 5:00 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 25, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    I'm not surprised yakoo is showing 2.00 as the annual dividend since they just multiply the last dividend by 4 but the percentage is wrong also. For a 12.4% yield a 2.00 dividend needs a 16.129 price.

    Even the poor suckers who only use yahoo should be able to divide 2.00 by 18.42 (or whatever the current price) to get 10.86% on 18.42. But then again, those who rely on yahoo, maybe no brains at all.

  • Another all time intraday and closing high for nrf. 18.50 held today, but I am not convinced the profit-takers at or over 18.50 are anyway near finished.

    I watched level 2 and the tape for about the last 45 minutes. 18.54 was just a flash, gone in an instant. Most of the late trading was 52-53, 51-52 and at the end, 50-51. Generally, buying slowed and selling increased at 52-53 and the other way around at 51-52, except at the very end when bid-ask was 50-51.

    At least today sellers did not do their usual race to the bottom to beat the other guy out the door. There was no leapfrogging the ask down chasing a falling bid. So profit-takers showed restraint today holding out for a bid of 50 or over. BUT, volume on the ask was usually much bigger than displayed volume on the bid. I have the feeling there are lots and lots of shares waiting to be sold at a little better than 18.50. Have no idea how many, but do know about 100 million new shares issued in past two years are deeply green. Every penny into new, uncharted territory will find previously unwilling longs suddenly willing sellers.

    So, those waiting for a dip may get it. Don't know when or how deep. I just know Hamo hates this yield and will not be satisfied until it is near or at 7% which calls for a 22.86 price at 1.60 annualized dividend.

    I still predict a combined price of between 40 and 50 by year end. NSAM in a price funk (understandably) now but I think that will change when they publish 9/30 results and new presentation slides. I have plenty of time to wait it out.

  • Larrea buying in open market at over 32 per share.

    Timely Form 4 was 8/21 purchase of 100,000.
    Late reports had 100,000 on 7/31 and 170,000 on 7/30.

    Now owns over 600,000 shares.

    Methinks this may be a prelude to Grupo taking us all out.

  • Reply to

    Calling all DRIP investors

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 22, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    Your default setting was cash for any new positions. The NRF you received was NRFC Sub-Reit with a new cusip number, so it is not the same stock as pre-split NRF.

    If you want drip as the default, click the box for future acquisitions next time you change a drip election.

    As to Hamo, there is no sec filing for a recent open market purchase. The recent slew of Forms 4 were 6/30/14 giveaway shares.

  • Reply to

    Calling all DRIP investors

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 22, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Right. NFS is Fidelity. So you got your drip out of the same batch I did.

    When I first questioned Fidelity about their drip procedures, including whether they added a markup, the answer was something like, "We add up all the drip dollars and go to the open market 3 business days before the pay day and buy as many shares as those drip dollars will buy. Then we allocate those shares to our customers in the ratio of drip dollars invested without fee or markup. All of our customers pay the same price which is our average cost."

  • Reply to

    Calling all DRIP investors

    by dar200 Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 22, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    The price says the buy could not have been today. Amazing how close it is to Fidelity's price.

    Please call USAA and ask them when they buy drip shares and post response here. Other than Fidelity, this is the first I have heard of buying before the pay date.

  • Fidelity bought drip shares Tuesday when the high was 18.49 and low was 18.10. I paid 18.2447 per drip share in two accounts and 18.2445 in a third. I transferred my AMTD nrf shares to Fidelity, so now I only drip NSAM at Ameritrade.

    Several brokers will buy drip shares today. Ameritrade will buy Monday.

    Let's see which of today's buying brokers posts the best and worst price. My bet is Etrade posts the worst.

    When your drip shares post to your account, please divide drip dollars by the shares you received. Name your broker here and your cost per share to FOUR decimal places. If enough brokers are named the results should be interesting.

  • Reply to

    18.27 or less

    by dar200 Aug 13, 2014 10:44 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 21, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    Told'ya. NRF closed at 18.29 on 8/13........17.79 on an ex-dividend basis. 1.60/17.79 = 8.9938% yield.

    Ex div on 8/14 and here we are one week later at 18.44 as I type. Hmmmm, 17.79 to 18.44, up 3.65% in a week.

    Shudda wudda cudda say you? It ain't too late. 1.60 / 18.50 = 8.65% yield. Not as good as 9%, but still great considering the underlying sources of cad. IMO, Hamo ain't gunna stop until yield is under 7%. 1.60 / 7% = 22.857 price.

    BTW, absent a huge gain on a sale, the griffin deal guarantees roc dividends for years to come. 3.5 billion worth of depreciable assets without a penny out of cad. A buy at 18.50 gives you 8 to 10 years before distributions exceed basis resulting in a long term capital gain.

  • Reply to

    Discount drip price calculation

    by dar200 Aug 7, 2014 12:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 20, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    Fidelity just corrected the drip price. This time they charged me 54.2384, just as I calculated.

  • Reply to

    Griffin merger prospectus filed

    by dar200 Aug 19, 2014 9:29 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 19, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Lotsa details in the prospectus, which also serves as a proxy statement for shareholder votes.

    Among the interesting tidbits:

    A narrative of the chronology leading to the announcement. Hamo told the truth at the May CC.
    At the moment he spoke nrf was not in negotiations with Griffin. Before and after, but not on CC day.

    An advisor to Griffin using various assumptions estimated the deal to be slightly dilutive to slightly accretive to NRF's cad per share in 2015. NRF says neutral, which fits.

    There is a list of possible pros and cons to each side......factors the respective sides considered in getting to "yes".

    NRF is estimating 3Q cad will be higher than 4Q. Document did not say why.

    All with a significant stake in NRF should read at least the summary portions, skip the boilerplate, and read the other details which interest you.

  • Reply to

    Griffin merger prospectus filed

    by dar200 Aug 19, 2014 9:29 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 19, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    A secondary offering (SO) is when a SHAREHOLDER registers for a public offering of a company's stock that is already outstanding. The company does not sell (issue) any new shares nor does the company receive any proceeds. Also, the company does not pay any underwriter fees. Total shares outstanding do not change as a result of a secondary.
    A follow-on offering is any public offering of new shares to be issued by a company subsequent to an initial public offering. The company gets the proceeds, net of fees to the underwriters and total shares outstanding increases by the newly issued shares sold by the company.
    Both types of offering will cause a market discount (public price drops) because the offer price has to be lower than a tute can buy in the open market in order to induce the tutes to buy large blocks. The market discount can be 1% to 5%, depending on the strength of the company and proposed use of the money. NRF has been around 2.5%. BUT, the market discount can be increased by dilution freaks who sell whether or not the issuance will actually be dilutive to eps. OR, the market may not like what the company is going to do with the proceeds. Then, the trading price on offer day will go below the public offering price. I like to buy follow-ons at 1% or more below the offer price.
    In addition, the company must pay the underwriters. In an underwritten offering, the underwriters buy the shares from the company , net of an offering discount ranging from 1.25% to 5%. NRF pays around 2.5%. Here, the underwriters bear the risk of selling to the public. If it does not sell well, the underwriters have to lower their price to unload the shares.
    In a best efforts offering, the company bears the risk of selling to the public. The underwriters get a commission on whatever they sell. If it does not sell out, that's the company's problem.
    When I "eyeball" a NRF offering, I use 95.5% of the pre-announcement closing price as net, net to the company and have been close.

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