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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 312 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 26 minutes ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    NRF vs GPT

    by ruswise Sep 25, 2014 10:54 AM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 27, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    Sorry I was not clear with my question.

    Did you establish your 10,000 share position at 17.42 with Friday morning buys? Your post was at 10:54 Friday morning.

  • The 8-K filed Friday after the close has proforma financial statements showing "what if" the acquisition had been completed earlier. For the 6 months ended 6/30, had nrf owned these hotels as of 1/1/14, excluding transaction costs, gaap loss would have been 10 cents per share less than historical.

    I did not attempt to convert gaap loss into cad mainly because I am too lazy, but also because I think the increment on cad would only be a little bit higher on a per share basis.

    In any event, nrf included this hotel group in its Aug presentation slides since they closed on the deal in June.

  • Reply to

    Never buy a REIT too high

    by biotechprofiteer Sep 27, 2014 6:12 PM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 28, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    Yup, newcomers like you get skinned by the pros on a daily basis. Has the thought ever crossed your newcomer mind that there are frequently valid reasons why a stock price is near its 52-week high or low?

    Other bargains are Radio Shack and Sears. Help yourself to them also.

    Learn this. No stock price makes new highs without making lower new highs. What makes you think that any new high is not a prelude to another new high followed by another and another?

  • 4.6% fixed for 3 years on 275 million unsecured. STINKO!

  • Reply to

    Interest rate stinks

    by dar200 Sep 29, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 29, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    What properties has NRF purchased in the last two years at a 16% cap rate? You obviously don't know the difference between cap rate and yield on leveraged equity. I suggest you learn the difference so you don't make such silly statements.

  • Reply to

    Interest rate stinks

    by dar200 Sep 29, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 29, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    You still have not cited one investment with a 16% return on the invested funds....not return on leveraged equity.....return on the gross amount invested, which is what your opening post referred to.

  • Reply to

    Interest rate stinks

    by dar200 Sep 29, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 29, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    The only problem is Hamo has not made a 16% investment in years. Hamo doesn't earn 16% or any way near it on gross money in. You can stand by pie in the sky all you want. It doesn't make 16% on gross any less silly.

  • Reply to

    Interest rate stinks

    by dar200 Sep 29, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 29, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    So, now you admit you were "maybe" referring to yield on leveraged equity, which is after subtracting the cost of debt, which means it is irrelevant to 4.6% being too high a rate. Again you refer to total return on stock which is also irrelevant to the relative cost of debt.

    Last spring's healthcare buy was financed at 4.31% fixed for FIVE years, not 3 as here, but these were secured by mortgages. The recent unsecured DB loc floats at 3.5% over libor, which makes today's rate about 3.65%, almost 100 basis points less than the subject debt. For your information, 1% (4.6 vs 3.6) on 3:1 debt on property with a 7% cap rate means 3 percentage points on yield on leveraged equity. What would have been a 15.7% yield on leveraged equity after 1.5% to nsam becomes 12.7%. It's the difference between nicely accretive and marginally accretive.

    You have a constitutional right to be wrong for any irrelevant facts you care to rely upon. It just results in a silly statement; one with no basis in relevant facts or logical reasoning.

  • Reply to

    Interest rate stinks

    by dar200 Sep 29, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 29, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    No, I didn't predict nrf would be in the 20s by year end. I said I believed the combined price would be between 40 and 50.

    With a yield over 9% which I believe will be 100% roc, I think nrf is a screaming buy for the yield investor. Did I say a stinko rate on a 275 million loan was reason to not buy or to sell?

  • Reply to

    Interest rate stinks

    by dar200 Sep 29, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 30, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Look at the August presentation slides.......management wants 6% yield which at 1.60 = 26.67. BUT, what management wants, so far, has not happened by a long shot which is why I think Hamo will do what he reasonably can to get the price up. Listen to today's presentation.

    According to statements made on this board I am not the biggest holder.

    By following what I say, the only thing you know is whatever happens to your nrf/nsam stock also happens to the largest position in my portfolio. I do not bat 1,000.

  • Reply to

    Never buy a REIT too high

    by biotechprofiteer Sep 27, 2014 6:12 PM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 30, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Hey norm, the guy said he liked buying stock which was trading near its 52-week lows. Sears and Radio Shack are perfect examples of the valid fundamental reasons behind their stock prices. He's welcome to load up on them so his newcomer mind will feel good.

    Maybe he'll pay some "tuition" to learn a lesson.

  • Reply to

    Never buy a REIT too high

    by biotechprofiteer Sep 27, 2014 6:12 PM
    dar200 dar200 Sep 30, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    Thank you, but I have a very thick skin. Those who dish it out have to be able to take it coming the other way.
    I have had lots and lots of practice. No better training than being on the witness stand with the opposing attorney trying to pound away at you.

  • Standing room only crowd certainly has not rushed out to buy for next spinoff.

  • Reply to

    PRICE TARGET 45!!

    by monett4 Sep 11, 2014 11:21 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 1, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Inversion....good idea. Can you tell us how much U.S. tax they would save with an inversion? Put another way, how much would the effective tax rate drop?

  • Reply to

    [OFF] Creating an Income-Producing Portfolio

    by inward Oct 1, 2014 11:44 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 1, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Start off by buying NRF under 17.78 and collect more than 9%. I expect at least several years of 100% tax deferred return of capital which converts ordinary income into long term capital gain or tax free income if you die with the stock.

  • Collected thru 9/30 = 212.0 million vs 172.7 thru 8/11....39.3 million in 50 days for an average of .786 per day.

    This vs .763 million in 19 days thru 8/11.

    At 6/27 collections totaled 137.8 million to 212.0 thru 9/30.....74.2 million in 95 days averaging .781 for quarter.

    Healthcare was 342.3 at 6/27 and 507.0 thru 9/11......164.7 in 76 days for an average of 2.167 per day.

    With 20 days to go on Healthcare, I'm confident the two will slightly exceed 250 million for 3Q.

    So the pattern is consistent...150 in 1Q, 200 in 2Q and 250 in 3Q......increasing by 50 million per Q. 300 million in 4Q will mean 900 for the year (vs 800 in presentation slide budget). When nsam reports 3Q and prepares new projection, I expect budget will be increased. This does not include RXR launch which should start this Q.

    There! You now know something that 99% of the market does not know simply because they are not fast enough.

  • Had to get a bounce sooner or later. I think nsam has greater pop potential on Nov earnings/cc/guidance than nrf......the reason I bought low yield nsam over high yield nrf this morning at 17.9216 and sold it 1.5 hrs later for 18.1280 resulting in a 1,032 dinner trade. Wife will be very pleased.

    Also, finally some volume in nsam behind the bid and ask. Was looking for a flip lot yesterday but only sandlot volumes displayed. Today, on 5,000, the buy took 2 executions to fill (100 + 4,900). The sell took 3 (2x100+ 4,800). More than the lightweights are at the plate today.

  • Reply to

    Income 2, supplement 9

    by dar200 Oct 2, 2014 10:04 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 2, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    I go to the sec website. On the screen I bookmarked one option is "latest filings". These are practically real time. In the search box just put "northstar". This will return all recent filings with the word, so it gets any filing entity with the word in it, including a couple of entities which have nothing to do with the nrf group. However, it does show nrf healthcare, nrf income 1 and nrf income 2.

  • Healthcare filed a S-11 last night. Offering an additional 500 million worth of stock and an additional 200 million for drip plan. This makes total to be sold 1.5 billion to public and 300 million for dripping. Allocations between public sales and dripping can be changed, just as they did with Income 1.

  • Ah, the nice little tidbits of information which can be gleaned from sec filings. You are about to learn something that 99.9% of the market does not know: Private reit fundraising ytd through 9/30 totals 627.1 million vs 800 million for year in projection budget. IMO, nsam will easily exceed 900 million for the year. I expect this adds 1 to 2 cents per share to nsam's cad per share for 2014 and 2 to 4 cents to 2015 cad.

    The S-11 just filed disclosed Healthcare raised 552.2 million thru 9/30 vs 109.2 at 12/31/13......443.0 million YTD. Income 2 was 212.0 at 9/30 vs 27.9 at 12/31/13.....184.1 YTD. 443.0+184.1 = 627.1.

    So, they are ahead of increasing by 50 million per quarter. 1Q = 150, 2Q = 200, 3Q = 277 = 627 ytd.

    For the period, Healthcare was 552.2 at 9/30 vs 507.0 thru 9/11.........45.2 million in 19 days = 2.379 per day.
    This compares to 2.236 in 28 days between 8/14 and 9/11.

    All is well in fundraising land at nsam. Increasing the size of the offering by more than 60% (700/1.100 = 63.6%) also tells you something.

    IMO, the market just has not grasped nsam's increase in cad for 2015. Current midpoint for 2H 2014 annualized = 66 cents. I'm currently now estimating by extrapolation 78 to 80 cents for 2015. That's an 18% to 21% increase and the stock is down 10% from its high. Hint. Hint.

EDE
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