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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 166 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Reply to

    NSAM Up 2%.nrf down 5%

    by mattmateuchi Jan 25, 2016 3:26 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 25, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    And where in that post was I "...... speculating a bump in divi to possibly $.82" ?? Where in that post did I even mention the dividend?

    BTW, "suppose" in an illustration = "assume", not speculate.

  • Reply to

    NSAM Up 2%.nrf down 5%

    by mattmateuchi Jan 25, 2016 3:26 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 25, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    I suggest you read it again, slowly this time, to increase comprehension. Before you do, please learn the difference between "illustrate" and "speculate".

  • Reply to

    todays sec filing- tea leaves

    by octopusink Jan 22, 2016 5:38 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 23, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    191 million includes assumed conversion of partnership units and vested RSUs into common on a 1 for 1 basis. 183.4 million common stock outstanding in yesterday's SEC filing does NOT include assumed conversions of common stock equivalents.

    Rounding to the nearest 10th of a million, there were 181.8 million common shares outstanding at 9/30/15 (from face of balance sheet in 3Q earnings release). They subsequently issued the last 7.1 million shares under the forward sales agreement. So, 181.8 + 7.1 = 188.9 minus 183.4 as of 1/21/16 = about 5.5 million shares bought back between 11/11 or 12 (couple of days after earnings release) and 1/21/16. Don't know when purchases were made but it doesn't look like buybacks will have more than a 1 million or so decrease in 4Q weighted average shares outstanding.

    However, for 1Q 2016, 5.5 million shares bought back will have at least a 5 million decrease in 1Q weighted average. To illustrate, assume 191 million diluted shares out for 1Q earning 80 cents. That results in aggregate cad of 152.8 million. Now divide 152.8 million by 186 million and cad per share = 82.15 cents. A 75 cent dividend = 93.75% of 80 cents. It is 91.30% of 82.15 cents.

    5.5 million shares x 3.00 annualized dividend = 16.5 million of cad which can be used to buy back more stock.
    At 13.00 per share, 16.5 million buys back another 1.269 million shares.

    Yup, yesterday's filing had a big tea leaf in it.

  • Reply to

    land and buildings

    by octopusink Jan 22, 2016 9:35 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 22, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    Yes. You are leaving out the revenues from the nontraded reits including those not yet selling and the income from their unconsolidated joint ventures. Yes, nsam has expenses, but another owner could probably run the book with much less compensation expense, mainly in the executive ranks.

  • Reply to

    land and buildings

    by octopusink Jan 22, 2016 9:35 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 22, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    Had you kept your nsam stock (right pocket), 1.00 out of your left pocket (nrf) becomes 96 cents in your right pocket. 4 cents is lost to the cost of carrying a second public company.

    The left pocket trades at 10 times cad so losing a buck takes 10.00 off the price. The right pocket trades at 15 times cad so 96 cents adds 14.40 to your right pocket. Netting the change in both pockets adds 4.40 to your paper wealth. This is the reason for a separate nsam. Europe was supposed to trade at European multiples, an erroneous (so far) assumption.

    Unfortunately, management pigged-out with the share compensation, probably thinking they could get away with it due to the increase in combined market cap (as of last December). The issuance of so many shares to an excessively greedy management diluted the 96 cents in your right pocket to 80 cents. (Numbers are just illustrative, not actual). Still a winner, but not what it should have been due to management greed.

  • Reply to

    land and buildings

    by octopusink Jan 22, 2016 9:35 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 22, 2016 10:07 AM Flag

    I disagree with recombination. That just gets nsam earnings trading at nrf's low multiples.

    It ain't hate for external management. If external management were hated so much, why did nsam hit 24.91 per share in early March 2015 shortly after reporting 27 cents of cad for 4Q 2014?

    While external management does cause a discount in the managed's multiple because the manager's profit is subtracted from the managed's profit, that's not the reason for the price collapse, imo.
    The dive started the Monday after the Friday night filing of the proxy statements disclosing obscenely excessive compensation and the dive accelerated the Monday after the Friday night filing of the prior Wednesday's shareholder votes on compensation. While it was already suspected that this management was being sneaky with the Friday night filings, the delay in reporting the shareholder votes on compensation proved the management was trying to hide things and could no longer be trusted.

    The stink of this management is the cause of tutes voting with their feet and that's what caused the price collapse.

  • Reply to

    Something new today

    by dar200 Jan 21, 2016 12:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 21, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    So much for that theory. None bounced from last smackdown, especially NSAM. Pathetic.

  • Recoveries from multiple smackdowns. We finally have some bargain hunters.

    So far today, NRF has had 3 smackdowns and recovered from all. NRE 2 and NSAM 4 with the same result.

    Nice to see for a change. Getting very tired of smackdown = staydown.

  • Reply to

    share buyback

    by rolling_inflaton Jan 20, 2016 11:04 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 20, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    Has an offer been accepted? What are the cap rates? What is occupancy pct? What occupancy pct is projected noi based on? All if you don't mind sharing.

  • Reply to

    Forbes article on NSAM - value trap

    by rkymtgeo Jan 16, 2016 10:41 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 16, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    See post 2947 on IV board.

  • Reply to

    Forbes article on NSAM - value trap

    by rkymtgeo Jan 16, 2016 10:41 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 16, 2016 12:23 PM Flag

    Same guy who wrote an error filled hatchet job on NRF a few months ago on SA. IMO, he's just trying to defend his SA botch here.

  • dar200 by dar200 Jan 14, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Down 25% in less than 10 full trading days. I spoke too soon at 24%.

  • If you go to the nasdaq website under any symbol and click on Institutional Holdings, you get the tute report. If you click on the date column header, the file resorts into newest date reported order.

    As of a few minutes ago,for NRF, 12 tutes had reported 12/31/15 holdings. 4 of them sold out.
    For NSAM, 7 reported with 3 sold out.
    For NRE, 10 reported with 5 sold out.

    Yeah, the number of shares held and transacted by early filers is very small, but the percentage of sold out tutes is telling.

  • Reply to

    NRF down 24% in 10 days

    by dar200 Jan 14, 2016 9:51 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 14, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    They can announce the dividend of 75 cents right now. That would reverse the freefall.

  • On no company-specific news except a shareholder goes public, usually a good sign in a mistrusted management situation.

    And management stands silent.

    Pathetic and infuriating.

  • dar200 by dar200 Jan 13, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    I think you have posted here to the effect that nsam is getting hammered right along with (or similarly to) other asset managers. Just before I started typing this, nsam is down over 11% ytd.

    Would you please post ytd pct for the asset managers you refer to. I happen to watch AINC and they are up almost 4% ytd. Who you lookin at?

  • Reply to

    Is Bankruptcy Imminent ?

    by utahmick Jan 12, 2016 7:52 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 13, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    I agree that the best use of nsam's cash in the long run is to buy back stock. But a short term boost is sorely needed. A 1 cent increase (10%) in the quarterly dividend costs less than 8 million per year vs a 400 million buyback authorization. IMO, a 10% dividend increase is money well spent.

  • Reply to

    Hey Matt

    by dar200 Jan 12, 2016 1:45 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 13, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    Just bought'em back at 13.8190 for all who have the guts, bucks and speed who want to tag along.

  • Reply to

    Hey Matt

    by dar200 Jan 12, 2016 1:45 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 13, 2016 10:07 AM Flag

    Sold'em for 14.3681 shortly after the open for an overnight 3%. Another 2 grand for the Christmas fund.

    I might even buy'em back if the smackdown goes far enough.

  • Reply to

    How low can it go?

    by krunktech Jan 12, 2016 12:52 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 12, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    Well, if the yield was 36.8% on a 7.06 annual dividend, that means the stock price was 19.18. If 19.18 is 20% of book, then book was 95.90.

    I hope you didn't pay too much for that research report.

EDE
33.06+4.86(+17.23%)Feb 10 4:02 PMEST