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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 241 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 4:47 PM Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Reply to

    price strength

    by ruswise Jan 21, 2015 10:03 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 22, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    All the record books will show 19.07 as the all time high to date. However, when the accreted dividend is considered, 18.94 on 9/3 was higher than 19.07 today.

    The Aug ex div was 8/14 and Nov was 11/6.....about 12 weeks apart. 40 cents / 12 weeks = 3.33 cents per week accretion. 9/3 was just shy of 3 weeks from 8/14, so 10 cents of dividend had accreted by then. Thus 18.94 is 10 cents worth of accreted dividend and 18.84 for the stock.

    I expect the next ex date around 2/6......about 13 weeks from 11/6. 40/13 = 3.077 accretion per week. Tomorrow will be 2 weeks from 2/6 so 11 weeks have elapsed from last ex date. 3.077 x 11 = 33.8 cents which rounds to 34. Thus 19.07 = 34 cents of accreted dividend and 18.73 for the stock.

    So, as of now, 18.84 on an ex dividend basis on 9/3 is higher than 18.73 today.

    With high yield stocks, accreted dividends DO make a difference.

  • Reply to

    price strength

    by ruswise Jan 21, 2015 10:03 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 21, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    The non-deal roadshow opened some eyes. Roadshow was 1/13. Look at price (and volume) since in yahoo history.

  • See IV board.

  • I think Green Courte and its big shots on the BOD is good for us retails.

    The group owns a bit over 15% of the stock. With two on the BOD, I suspect some restraint will be exerted against the excessive bonus and stock awards of recent years. It's about time.

  • 2014 dividends were 43.72% tax deferred return of capital and 31.72% ordinary income.

    The balance was taxable gain on the communities sold......24.56% of the 2014 dividend. 72% of the 24.56% is unrecaptured section 1250 gain, which is taxed at a max 25% instead of 15% or 20% for long gains.

    So, about 32% of 2014 taxable income was ordinary income for common shareholders. Preferred, of course, is 100% taxable before any common is taxable. With all the new preferred, which carries out taxable income first, issued in connection with the Green Courte acquisition, I would expect between 75% and 85% of the 2015 common dividend will be return of capital. This assumes no gains from sold communities.

  • dar200 dar200 Jan 16, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    You got a thumbs up from me for the sentiment expressed, not for your ability to construct a poem.

  • Reply to

    No love for NSAM in 2015

    by clrodrick Jan 15, 2015 4:09 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 16, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    BTW, I just bought 200 March 22.50s for 45 cents. I expect 24 before expiration.

  • Reply to

    No love for NSAM in 2015

    by clrodrick Jan 15, 2015 4:09 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 16, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    Well, I was predicting 25 within 10 days of release of first 2015 cad est. However, that was before the robber share rape and Healthcare having another 700 million to sell. NSAM estimated running out of sale authorization on or about today if the pending registration statement is not declared effective. As of this morning, no effectiveness. I estimated nontraded sales in 2015 of 1.8 billion. That's out the window if Healthcare gets halted for lack of authorization.

    So the robber shares makes my 1.23 diluted to 1.20. Don't know about Healthcare sales, but every day of not being able to take in money hurts.

    Market is rightfully sour on nsam since the robber share rape and Tylis selling over 37% of his nsam shares, none of which he paid for. Gunna take some positive news to turn it sweet again, imo.

  • Reply to

    No love for NSAM in 2015

    by clrodrick Jan 15, 2015 4:09 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 16, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    Earnings will be Feb 26 or 27. 4Q always late because they have to wait for auditor.

  • dar200 dar200 Jan 15, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    You and I may not be here when "eventually" happens. As long as Hamo has profitable deals conducted in euros available, the euro cad will be reinvested in euro assets or pay down euro debt. I ain't worried about a realized exchange rate loss because it won't happen for a long, long time.

  • dar200 dar200 Jan 15, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Yeah, distributable cad from Aerium is converted from euros to dollars. A weaker euro means fewer dollars making the 10 million threshold harder to cross. So yup, nsam gets fewer Aerium fees subject, of course, to the 10 million minimum.

    NSAM's base fee is based on equity raised, not assets. The fact that dollar equity is converted to euros to buy this portfolio is irrelevant. This will not change nsam's fee.

    Foreign currency losses in 3Q (300K) were added back to net income in determining cad. (Ya gotta read the footnotes). Thus, unrealized losses from a weakening euro will not affect cad and thus will not reduce nsam's incentive fees.

  • dar200 dar200 Jan 15, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    I think you missed the point.

    Since the US dollar is NRF's functional currency, all foreign currencies must be translated into US dollars for gaap financial statement purposes using current exchange rates. Thus fluctuations in the US/foreign currency exchange rate WILL cause US gaap dollars to be greater or less than the foreign currency earned.

    However, as long as that foreign currency stays in the foreign jurisdiction (meaning not converted to US dollars), its purchasing power in the foreign currency stays the same. If a piece of European real estate produces 100 million euros of noi and the market cap rate is 6%, then that property will sell for 1.6667 billion euros regardless of the US dollar equivalent.

    All you have is paper foreign currency gains or losses until you convert back to dollars. Then and only then do paper profits or losses become real (realized).

    PM earns all of its income ex-US. It exchanges several foreign currencies into US dollars to pay US dollar dividends. THOSE exchange rate gains or losses are realized at the time of conversion.

    As long as euro earnings are reinvested in euro denominated assets, all you have is unrealized changes in foreign currency translation. YES, they are booked for US gaap, but the foreign purchasing power of same jurisdiction foreign assets is unchanged. That's why euros will probably stay in the euro zone as the euro weakens against our dollar.

  • dar200 dar200 Jan 15, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Not going to have more than a minuscule impact, if any at all. They are buying and borrowing in euros. Income and expenses will be in euros as will depreciation. I strongly suspect any profit or cash flow will stay in euros at locations outside the US.

    Yup, euros have to be translated into US dollars for financial statement purposes, but a euro remains a euro somewhere where euros are the functional currency. If the euro gets weaker against the dollar, as is expected, it will reduce the dollar value of euro assets and euro net income.

    To illustrate, assume a euro cost 1.25 when the contract was signed. 1.1 billion euros = 1.375 billion dollars.
    Assume the euro = 1.15 when the purchase is completed. 1.1 b euro = 1.265 billion original cost.

    Suppose the profit/cad after one year is 20 million euros. If the average exchange rate were 1.15, that's 23 million dollars. However if the exchange rate is 1.02 euros per dollar, the 20 mill euro profit translates to 20.4 million dollars. In addition, the real estate which was booked at 1.265 billion dollars at 1.15 exchange rate is written down to 1.02 which means the asset gets written down to 1.122 B from 1.265 B......debit is to foreign currency loss.

    So, while there is a negative impact when translated into US dollars, it does not change the fact that 20 million euros of profit/cad remains outside the US which can be used to pay obligations (or make new investments) which are denominated in euros. The paper loss only becomes real if the euros are converted back into dollars at a lower exchange rate.

  • Reply to

    NRF vs GOOD

    by dar200 Jan 13, 2015 5:16 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 13, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    Yeah, it's in the taxable account and deeply green. Dividend is 85% or so roc and I am convinced Gladstone will eat as much as he has to in fees to continue his brag that dividend has never been missed, deferred or reduced.

    Vacancies have been the problem past few years but they are working out of that. 3Q was actually an improvement over 2Q because less fees were waived. I expect same in 4Q. The way to measure GOOD's progress is to chart fees waived by quarter.

    I brought it up because it's yielding less than nrf with a dismal past 5 year record compared to a stellar past 5 year record from nrf. Same with future.....nothing from good to stockholders except same dividend until fees no longer waived.....a loooong time from now, imo. Compared to NRF's future, there is just no comparison. Nevertheless, good's yield is lower thsn nrf's. Go figure.

  • dar200 by dar200 Jan 13, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    GOOD just announced its monthly dividend for 1Q of 12.5 cents, which annualizes to 1.50 and which has been the same for 10 years. The ONLY reason there is any dividend is Gladstone waives enough fees to leave affo sufficient to cover the dividend. Loan agreements prohibit dividends in excess of affo. So here's a company which has not raised the common dividend in 10 years, is not likely to raise it for the next five years (reduced fee waivers) and whose price is nothing but a function of interest rates. GOOD = a stable dividend only because excessive fees are being waived.

    GOOD....1.50/ 17.375 = 8.65% yield.
    NRF........1.60/ 17.83 = 8.97% yield.

    Shakin my head in disbelief.

  • Reply to

    OT - pretty nasty

    by saacoo3 Jan 13, 2015 2:21 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 13, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    I suspect one computer smelled another computer starting to sell so the sniffing computer joined in on the selling which triggered the smell detector of another computer which promptly joined the selling, and on and on in a circle jerk. Computers are lemmings too.

    NUTSO market.

  • Reply to

    Tea leaves have been read

    by dar200 Jan 13, 2015 10:01 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 13, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    This association with Green Street is significant, imo. See my post on the other board.

  • Since Yahoo deleted my post which mentioned the name of the other message board I won't mention it, but you know where it is. New tea leaves from the just released presentation.

  • Reply to

    OT--buy SUI under 62.75--OT

    by dar200 Dec 23, 2014 12:04 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 12, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    Posted Jan 7: "Those not at position limit may want to wait for 4Q earnings and first est of 2015.....I suspect another 5% in a month or so."

    Sooner than I expected. More than a few liked the recent announcement of the second Green Courte closing, the refinancing at less than 4% for 14 years and the sale of enough equity to close on the Berger deal in Feb.

    SUI firing on all cylinders. Another pop with earnings announcement if they announce dividend increase for April.

    Nevertheless, imo, the easy money has been made. SUI now yielding under 4%. BUT another 8 cents on the dividend = 2.00 on the price at 4%. 16 cents = double that.

    Rock of Gibraltar safety on dividend, imo. A sleep at night annuity.

  • Reply to

    2015 Predictions

    by rogluther Jan 10, 2015 2:30 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 10, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    "So ….. it looks like I missed 3 out of 4 …... but, it's also interesting to note that at COB 12-29, I had met ALL of my predictions but obviously did not anticipate the market sell-off in the last two days of the year. "

    Which proves the folly of predicting a price on any given date, a statistic which is meaningless to a long term investor.

30.47-0.98(-3.12%)Jan 30 4:02 PMEST

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