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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 252 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Reply to

    New 2015 cad est for NSAM

    by dar200 Dec 17, 2014 3:41 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 19, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Can you do long division and convert the quotient into a percentage?

  • Reply to

    losing my marbles

    by halcyonhouck Dec 16, 2014 5:38 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 19, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Thank you. I will enjoy using them knowing I have helped another retail become a smarter investor/flipper.

  • Reply to

    losing my marbles

    by halcyonhouck Dec 16, 2014 5:38 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 18, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    If you do, Ken, just tell them to hold it at the cash register and I will pick it up. Thank you.

    Nice day for nsam. I suspect we will see many more as the realization of 2015 cad per share sinks in to slow, thick skulls. Yesterday I attribute to Auntie Janet as no morning pop on 1 billion announcement. Today, the macro winds were blowing hard, but it did not do much for nrf. I sensed on nsam early in the day more a lack of sellers than a crush of buyers. But, the momentum carried right into the close. I hope we see more tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    losing my marbles

    by halcyonhouck Dec 16, 2014 5:38 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 18, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Thank you. Next time I go in I will ask for it.

    IMO, AI has little price upside. Nice div, but that's about it. ARP is way oversold, imo, but is blowing in the oil winds. Big upside when (not if) oil is back over 80 eventually to over 100. May take a while. Currently pumping wells will keep on pumping, but new fracking wells will not be drilled with 58 oil. Soon, old wells decline in production with not enough new wells, so supply goes down and price goes up. The market will reach equilibrium but it will take time.

  • Today's press release says 2.3 billion raised. I get 2.284, which rounds to 2.3 and estimate they will be about 2.347 billion by 12/31 . They get a full year's worth of fees on the 12/31 cumulative x 3.5% = 82.1 million. At 5 million per day on existing products, they raise 1.8 billion in 2015. If evenly, they only get a half a year's fees, so 900 x 3.5 = 31.5 million = 113.6 million of fees from existing products. Don't know what RXR will contribute, but it's only half a fee. I don't expect anything from Ziff because nsam is so slow getting registration statements declared effective.

    Net commissions on existing products, 1.8 billion x .5% = 9 million. Nothing from rxr or ziff here.

    Nrf baseline at 182 million. Add 8 million for 2015 equity issued and 10 million in incentive fees = 200 million from nrf. This includes nothing from rxr and aerium exceeding 10 million. 3Q incentive fees = 1.3 million on 43 cents on 200 million shares. Add cad neutral on griffin and remainder of forward sales = 300 million shares. Thus, no increase in per share 1.3 / 200 x 300 = 1.95 x 4 Q = 7.8 million. Add a couple of pennies per share = 10 million easy.

    So, 113.6 + 200 + 9 = 322.6 revenue the way I define revenue using net commissions instead of gross. CAD = 70% (I'll be more sure when 4Q is published) = 225.8 / 200 million weighted average shares = 1.13. Add 10 cents from unconsolidated ventures = 1.23 x 25 pe once the growth realization sets in = 30.75 for the stock.

    Slow, lazy market doesn't have a clue. No pop today on raising 1 billion so far this year because the general market cannot correlate nontraded fundraising to daily rate to next year to cad per share. Too slow. Too lazy. Gotta be spoonfed a few times before it sinks in.

  • Reply to

    SEC CT filing

    by eclectic_investor Dec 16, 2014 6:38 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 17, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    Contracts they refer to are the TIAA-CREF agreement relating to the purchase of TIAA's interest in private equity deals. This filing is no big deal.

  • Reply to

    losing my marbles

    by halcyonhouck Dec 16, 2014 5:38 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 17, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    The restaurant is 15 Point Road in Portsmouth....401-683-3138....ask for Sean, the owner. Gift card for Dan Richman....use your screen name as donor.

    An alternative restaurant we go to is Portofino at the Ramada Inn in Middletown. Different menu from 15 Point and location not as nice, but they have some very nice specials, like an entree with 4 different seafoods or 4 different meats. I mention this because they have a Christmas special on gift cards...get a 125 card for 100 (not trying to influence your gift.....just love a bargain). 401-846-3555......no particular person, except ask for restaurant. Same rules.....use screen names except for credit card info.

    Thank you in advance. We will have both kids and grandkids for Christmas and will take them to one of these restaurants while they are here.

    AI is OK. Nothing special except very high yield. With a bunch of cash, hold your nose and buy ARP. Then forget about it until oil back at 100. Don't know when, but know 100 will be seen again. If not at position limit in SUI, I suggest adding before they report 4Q. Also ETP on one of its beat up days.

    NRF and NSAM on sale, but you have enough of both except to flip.

  • Reply to

    NRF in oil business

    by dar200 Dec 15, 2014 3:55 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 16, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    Out at 17.2380 (net).....an overnight 1.39% and another 1183 for the Christmas fund.

    Trigger finger was very fast only because I hold too much.

  • So I just bought another 5,000 at 17.0015.

  • Reply to

    Bullish early exercise

    by dar200 Dec 3, 2014 2:40 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 12, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    And he sold all 1,929 yesterday. He cashed in every one he got with this early exercise. No longer a positive signal to me. Now a slightly negative signal if any signal at all.

  • Reply to

    pathetic performance today

    by octopusink Dec 11, 2014 2:05 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 11, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    He became a director last June. Directors are "expected" (if not required) to own stock. Before today he owned none except giveaway shares. While certainly not a negative, I don't see it as much of a positive.

  • Reply to

    pathetic performance today

    by octopusink Dec 11, 2014 2:05 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 11, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    I get frustrated and impatient at times too. NRF has had these "spells" of languishing, downish price action for as long as I can remember. BUT, since 2012, nrf's total return has been in the neighborhood of 100% per year.
    Investors, not traders or instant gratification freaks, have no complaints with this record.

    Those who understand the fundamentals just have to be patient.

  • Reply to

    One year from spin announcement

    by dar200 Dec 11, 2014 9:32 AM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 11, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    I'm happy in general and very happy with my reinvestment in nrf.

    I was expecting you to know Duane Eddy as the performer of "40 Miles of Bad Road" in an instant. Too busy with your animals?

  • The spinoff of nsam was announced on 12/10/13, after the close. Pre-split nrf closed 12/10 before announcement at 9.94. It closed on 12/11 at 11.95, up 20.22% on the announcement.

    In a small IRA where I have held nrf since July, 2012 with no activity other than dripping at Fidelity, the value of the nrf position at the close on 12/10 before the announcement was 19,923. Since then, the only activity in this position has been the split/spin and dripping, so this is a theoretically perfect total return calculation dripping the Fidelity way.

    Yesterday, nrf in this account closed at 19,030 and nsam closed at 21,864, a total of 40,894 from 19,923 one year earlier, a total return of 105.26%. I'd say the spinoff was a big success.

  • Reply to

    Griffin merger vote ?

    by pcs.jr56 Dec 1, 2014 10:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 10, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Go right ahead. These are public boards for anyone to read.

  • Reply to

    Berger properties

    by dar200 Dec 10, 2014 2:41 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 10, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    I looked up the golf courses. Both are linked to communities being sold.

  • 8-K just filed with P&S agreements attached.

    This is a roll-up into sui's partnership (an upreit) so sellers can defer some tax on gain.

    Preferred partnership units being issued at 100 per unit and are convertible into 1.111 shares of common.
    Thus, the conversion price is 90 per share.

    Common units being issued at 61 per unit, convertible into common 1:1.

    I note the P&S agreements (I read 2) require sellers to also contribute two golf courses, I presume for an additional price which I did not find disclosed.

    Don't know what the going-in cap rate is, so have no opinion on whether this is bad, neutral or good for cad per share. I'd like to think Shiffman would not do a deal which is not accretive to per share, but have doubts on that score. It does make sui bigger.

  • Reply to

    OFF TOPIC-----age quiz

    by dar200 Dec 9, 2014 3:31 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 10, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    No. I got out of the kmi short green, but barely so. It was the price of oil drubbing which bailed me out, not my theory that kmp holders would dump en mass. It was a lousy call, another lesson to stick with what I know.

    I was listening to Sandy Nelson music on Pandora when they played 40 miles. I just wanted to see who was old enough to remember such a classic. You, with RMDs, are certainly old enough, so what's your excuse for being feeble in the brain department?

    Recent price action is par for the course. Eventually, fundamentals win. With nrf, it's eventual recognition as an equity reit, not a mortgage reit. With NSAM, it's when the show me crowd gets spoonfed and sees it's real.

  • Reply to

    OFF TOPIC-----age quiz

    by dar200 Dec 9, 2014 3:31 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 9, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    If you were twanging a guitar while you were driving up a 50 degree slope, you win the Duane Eddy award.

  • dar200 by dar200 Dec 9, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    When it's a birthday, it can be dreaded. When it's a new all-time high on the stock price, it's great.

    More to come, imo. Lewis got it right with his early exercise.

EDE
30.47-0.98(-3.12%)Jan 30 4:02 PMEST

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