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The Empire District Electric Company Message Board

dar200 385 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 12:12 PM Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Open interest on March 15 and under calls totals 9,797. If shorts hold any of these they can exercise today and be the holder of record (meaning close out short position) on Monday, the record date. By exercising today, shorts avoid the 25 cent dividend hit. We'll see what's open tomorrow.

    Open interest on March 16s is 4,971. If price gets real close to 16 or over, these too could be exercised by shorts thus avoiding the dividend hit while ending the pain of being short this stock.

  • Reply to

    More unannounced acquisitions

    by dar200 Mar 6, 2014 12:21 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    OOPS, maybe they did disclose these two. The earnings release disclosed two rv parks with 1,381 lots for 56.5 million acquired in Feb. Maybe this is how they got from 190 with 69,800 lots in Jan press release to 192 with 71,150 lots in yesterday's press release.

    Doesn't change my displeasure over not issuing a press release on closing any acquisition.

  • Did not have the guts to disclose price per share in press release announcing it priced.

    Shame on Shiffman.

  • Reply to

    Calm opening today

    by dar200 Mar 6, 2014 10:12 AM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    Just bought another 1,000 at 44.86. 5.796% yield when solid and more than half tax deferred is just fine with me.

    I deduced that sui bought another 2 communities with about 1,350 lots since earnings announced on 2/20. Maybe if Shiffman told the world what he was doing with the money he would have a more receptive market to his offering.

    A no-brainer for safe yield at under 45, imo. Maybe a flip here, but a holder on yield.

  • Since earnings were announced, SUI has acquired 2 more communities with approx. 1,350 lots.

    Maybe if they announced these acquisitions the market would not have such a negative reaction to the offering and the offering would be easier to price. Pay attention, Shiffman, the market is telling you something.

  • Reply to

    Calm opening today

    by dar200 Mar 6, 2014 10:12 AM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    I bought 1,000 in pre-market at 44.76. I suspect Shiffman wants an offer price of about 45.80 and the underwriters want something like 45.20. Don't know where it will land. I think anything under 46 is a good yield play. Low 45s a decent flip or better yield.

    2014 estimated affo a very nice increase from 2013. Would have been very nice per share increase without this offering. Gamble is whether proceeds are leveraged-up and invested. If yes, under 46 a great buy for stable, rock solid dividend. If no, a stronger balance sheet with a decent, safe annuity yield.

    Under 45 this morning was excessive knee-jerk, imo.

  • Ex-divi dumpers certainly did not control today's opening. Started green and climbed a few cents before a mini-tantrum chopped 7 cents off, but then buyers started price back up again to up 6 cents as I type.

    No lemming knee-jerk to buy. Ce la vie.

    Off topic: Dilution freaks are at SUI this morning which announced another offering last night. Maybe they are right as last year's offering just paid down debt becoming truly dilutive. If Shiffman uses this one to buy properties with cheap fixed rate debt (which I think is likely), dilution freaks will be wrong and under 46 (5.65% partially tax deferred yield at 46) will be a buy.

  • Reply to

    very large option activity

    by octopusink Mar 5, 2014 2:46 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    The 282,000 (approx.) of March in the money call volume must have been immediately exercised because open 15s and under total about 9.800 as of the open today. If the 16s (now out of the money) are counted, the total open interest is about 14,000.

    Anybody here get assigned last night on March calls??

  • Reply to

    Here we go again

    by dar200 Mar 5, 2014 4:37 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Looks like they are having trouble selling this one at a reasonable market discount. No pricing announcement as of 9:20......that's late. Shiffman doesn't like price underwriters are demanding. After hours and premarket trading = More than 3% discount.

  • 173.4 million collected as of 3/4. 10-K said 167 (no decimal) as of 2/26. That means 6.3 million or thereabouts in 6 days.

  • Another early offering. I hope they invest this one unlike last year's dilutive balance sheet prop.

  • dar200 dar200 Mar 5, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Sometimes you get the ex-divvy dump.......people wanting to sell but want that last dividend. They wait and sell the first day they can. This happens a lot with high yield stocks. Pros know this and hang back letting the ex divvy dumpers kill each other racing to chase down a falling bid.

    On the other hand, people with taxable accounts don't want to buy a dividend. They hold off on buying until the ex date......hoping to catch lemming dumpers.

    The direction depends on the volume at the plate and how badly that volume wants to trade.

    Fidelity is reporting a 16.01 close. That means a 15.76 open if all other things are equal, which they never are.

    One other factor. Lots of call sellers are going to be called. If naked, they have to buy or borrow to go short.
    If covered, they may want to replace the called shares. Today's March in the money call volume is extraordinary.......nrf got reported among highest volume right along with apple.

    I'll buy an overdone selloff, but I'm not convinced we'll get one. We'll see tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    very large option activity

    by octopusink Mar 5, 2014 2:46 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 5, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    That was short surrender. almost 282,000 March in the money calls. Time value premium very low as they expire 3/22. Options have next day settlement so they can be exercised as late as Friday and the holder who exercises will be the owner of record at the close on Monday, the record date for the dividend.

    If all of today's March in the money call volume was shorts, then 28 million shares will be called by Friday.

    No mas.....the shorts surrender.

  • Reply to

    Early exercise

    by dar200 Feb 24, 2014 4:56 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 4, 2014 9:21 PM Flag

    Wrong board, ken.

  • Forms 4 filed after close reporting give-away shares filed after close.

    At least Hamo, Gilbert and Hess did not sell any.

    Tylis sold 331,055 just as fast as he got his hands on them. Shame on him.

    Director Minami sold 35,187 which was about 38% of his holdings.

    The giveaway, as usual, is excessive, but relative to the shareholder return delivered, I gotta give'em a pass on this one.

    I wonder if Tylis has a gambling problem or some other pressing financial need that he sells all he can. Same thing last year. NRF should require senior exects to hold 5 times their salary in stock. Tylis is a disgrace to Hamo's theme that nrf's interests are aligned with shareholder interests. Then why does Tylis sell every share he can?

  • 5.472 million short out of 8.442 million reported volume, a whopping 64.8%.

    Too bad for them it didn't work today. Incoming tide too strong. Tute ownership too strong. Momo too strong.

    One more day to cover before the 25 cent toll is levied. So sorry, no offering. Shorts hafta cover the hard way......trying to beat each other out the door. Oh, da pain, da pain!

  • Didn't hold 16.00. Boo hoo. I'll cry all the way to the bank.

  • Today and tomorrow to cover before the 25 cent hit attaches to the short liability.

    No offer tonight = no easy way out. Hafta belly-up to the open market with all the other shorts trying to stop the pain. I want to watch those stops get triggered. Makes my day.....just like Clint.

  • Reply to

    new shares

    by biggerclicker Mar 4, 2014 12:21 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 4, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    BTW, the offer could come tonight with a trade date tomorrow. Buyer gets the dividend with a Wed trade date.

  • Reply to

    new shares

    by biggerclicker Mar 4, 2014 12:21 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 4, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    Sure. selling (trade date) before Thursday just gives an illusion of a higher offer price by the dividend amount.
    All other things being equal, nrf nets the same amount with a Thursday trade date as Wednesday because it doesn't pay the dividend on a Thursday buy. Net, net cash to nrf is the same.

    I suspect the reason for no offer yesterday is Hamo does not yet have a definitive agreement with a closing date to buy the healthcare deal because he does not want a billion dollars of cash sitting around earning next to nothing while he finds deals to close.

    As soon as Hamo knows the date he has to wire 365 million to a seller's account, we get an offering, imo.

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