Well, well, that was nice. 17.10 triggered some short stops which caused a mini spike to 17.14 when the sellers took over. Nice move considering the opening smackdown.
Still have a long afternoon. If we can trade above 17.04 for the rest of the day I think we will have cleared out the new sellers in the very low 17s.
Next stop to get by, imo, is 17.15. Don't know how many news sells await that number.
New shorts ain't doing too well on top of the old shorts getting creamed.
I'll try it again without the typo.
This combines Healthcare and Income 2.
At 12/31/13, cumulative raised was 137.1 million. (not 287.1 originally posted).
They raised 150 in 1Q bringing cumulative to 287.1.
At 6/23 for Income 2 and 6/24 for Healthcare, cumulative was 467.6.
Thus 180.5 million raised in 2Q thru the respective report dates.
If they don't hit 200 million for 2Q, they will be very close.
IMO, 800 for the year is safe to assume.
Some are slow learners. Short 10,000 now = short 5,000 nrf AND short 5,000 nsam Monday night. They get a preview of coming attractions Friday and Monday from the WI prices so they can cover by buying nrf regular way before Monday night. Only problem for them is by the time they see disaster coming, the price of nrf regular way will be very close to the sum of the WI prices divided by 2.
Beginning Friday morning the price of the when issued total adjusted for the reverse will drive the price of regular way. The computer traders will have a ball profiting from slight differences when the sum of the parts does not equal the whole. I don't think mere humans will be fast enough to send three orders in within 1/100th of a second and then do it again when the prices get back to parity. Nevertheless, I'll be watching for arbitrage opportunities.
Once upon a time selling short while holding a long position (called short against the box) was a great hedging strategy because a taxable event did not occur until the short position was closed (either by delivering long shares or buying to close)..
Now short against the box is a taxable sale to the extent of the concurrent long position. In a taxable account, you may as well sell the long shares because the tax result is the same.
Don't know what it will take, buy-wise, to get beyond 17.10 because I don't know how many sell shares will be unleashed with each penny over 17.
On 6/6 it traded at 17.00 before sellers unloaded.
On 6/9, it was 17.01.
Today, it was 17.02......so progress is being made.
It's a numbers game. Over 200 million common shares were issued in the past 25 months. All of them are deep green over the issue price. Every penny over well-traded territory will find new profit-takers. We just don't know how many shares are waiting to be triggered on each penny into territory not charted since 2007 (not counting the takeover spike).
Don't know what tomorrow will bring, but I will be watching with trading finger on the trigger.
Collected 334.0 million through 6/24 vs 313.1 thru 6/13.........21.1 million in 11 days for an average of 1.918 million per day vs 1.533 million per day for 21 days in supplement 4.
Now I'm pretty sure they will hit 200 million in 2Q.
A dinner trade is a same-day round trip which, after taxes, provides enough money for dinner out for two. I bought this lot for a dinner trade adding to an already uncomfortably overweight position. I guessed wrong.
I never wanted this lot as a flipper because I already had enough flippers, so I waited for a grand to correct my mistake. Took 2 days, but I'm out of a busted dinner trade with 1,033 for the Christmas fund which I give to my kids at Christmas.
I did not want to hold this lot for more than a few hours so I took the first chance I got to get rid of it. Good riddance at a profit. I have plenty of nrf, to ride through the spin......most investment advisors would say way too many for the size of my portfolio. I believe in riding winners, but that has limits.
For your second question, try reading yesterday's press release, which you should have done before asking.
As to the first, no response could pierce that veil of ignorance, so I won't even try. Maybe you should look at the stock price on 12/9-10/13, before the spinoff was announced to get a hint.
I never know on a day to day basis. It's only important for flippers and ego.
I said we'd hit 17 before the spin and we did it a while ago. Then I thought it might go to mid 17s. Don't know because I don't have a feel for how many shares are just waiting for very low 17s to dump. then again, mid 17s before the distribution would not surprise me.
I'll be glued to the computer Friday because I want to see how NSAM WI trades. Those who want to overweight nsam should buy nrf before tomorrow's close then sell NRF WI Friday. I see very little downside from 17 (but could be wrong) whereas if NSAM WI takes off, it will be much more expensive to get overweight. Just my opinion. Trade at your own risk.
BTW, midpoint cad estimated for the first 12 months following the spin is 33 cents x 395 million pre reverse split shares, which equals a little better than 130 million. And they adopt an incentive plan where that can pay any one individual 100 million bonus PER YEAR.
IMO, they intend to take as much as they can leaving the bottom line just high enough to prevent a shareholder revolt. They will leave enough to keep the masses quiet and take the rest.
Yeah, less than 200 million (post reverse split) shares will be issued in the spin and they can give away options on more than 10% of the outstanding stock to each individual they choose. Unbelievably greedy....a lesson in how to steal (my opinion word) a company from the shareholders who pay cash.
From prospectus. This does not mean this will be paid. It is the limit on what MAY be paid. Outrageous. Absolutely outrageous.
Oh, I can feel it in my bones. The percentage the big shots own in NSAM will rapidly and substantially exceed the percentage they own in NRF.
"Stock options and stock appreciation rights with respect to no more than 22,500,000 shares of stock may be granted to any one individual in any one calendar year and the maximum “performance-based award” payable to any one individual under the 2014 Plan is 22,500,000 shares of stock or $100,000,000 in the case of awards payable in cash. "
From last night's amended nsam registration statement:
"In connection with NorthStar Realty growing its business and expanding into international markets, in June 2014, NorthStar Realty acquired a minority interest in Aerium."
I like lots of sec filings. NRF discloses things they do not issue press releases on.
SEC does not approve. It declares a registration statement "effective", meaning the shares can be publicly traded.
Last night's filing was another amendment to the registration statement.....this one filled in the date blanks.
It still has not been declared effective.