Shudda re-thunk back in April 2012 when I posted recommendation. But you liked looking at big gain on preferred in your monthly statement. Ce la vie.
Monster gain from switching in 2012 is gone. BUT, preferred ain't getting any NSAM. NRF, while still strong, will be weaker without asset management business post spin than it would have been without the spin. No upside to preferred on top of fixed, depreciating dividend. It ain't gunna change.
NSAM will trade at a higher multiple than NRF....30 cents from nrf costs 3.60 at 12 times to get 25 x 50 = 12.50 at NSAM.
Correct. Your risk is the same because you have the same group of brains making the investment decisions.
In any of these nontraded reits, your upside is essentially capped or diminished (by market forces and fees, including incentive fees) whereas your downside (bad investments) is the same.
When I read the prospectus summary for Healthcare, I said to myself, "Not with a 10-ft pole."
Threshold question is will you risk your money on the ability of Hamo et al to pick profitable investments?
If no, go elsewhere. If yes, then, imo, common is the only choice which gives you upside commensurate with the downside risk, which I view as similar to common, nontraded and preferred.
In April 2012 after I concluded that growth had resumed and preferred was trading at just about par, I recommended here that holders of preferred switch the preferred to common. In a retirement account, I opined it was a no-brainer. Preferred had no upside besides a fixed dividend which would eventually be eroded by inflation whereas, in my opinion though some disagree, the downside risk was almost the same as common. When I made that recommendation common was yielding about 10% (on a 15 cent dividend).
How's it workin for preferred holders who did not switch to common when common was 5.50?
Preferred ain't gunna get any NSAM shares. NRF has given a sweetheart contract to NSAM. It's going to suck return and profits out of NRF and into NSAM. Preferred gets weaker while NSAM holders get richer.
As politely as I can make it, if you choose the company which pays high fees over the company which collects high fees, I think you're nuts.
How your company makes its money, read the 10-K.
Nothing in there that I saw this morning which changes my opinion of "nothing not to like"....about 4Q, year 2013 or prospects for 2014. Growth snowball is rolling downhill.
Just sit tight with your core position. Flip the knee-jerks if you want, but the core should be set in concrete until something changes to the negative. Shorts are dead meat.
10-K says they collected 57 (no decimal) million as of 2/26. So, it could be 56.5 or 57.4. Even at the lowest, it's 600k in one day. I like that.
Also says Healthcare at 167 million on 2/26. Last supplement I have is 126.9 as of 1/24. Rounding to 127 to 167 = 40 million in 33 days, average = 1.212 million per day. Great.
Correct. As long as Hamo can make, net to nrf after spinoff, 10% or more on leveraged equity, new common issuance proceeds will go to deals as long as pipeline provides accretion.
If marketplace yields and/or pipeline shrinks, if the cost of common is 150 basis points or so below preferred, that's when he will issue common to pay off preferred.
10-K just filed, slides with first est of 2014 to be posted tonight. Whole world will have all weekend to digest the absolute latest info available, then can trade on it all day Monday.
Offering announced Monday after close, 60 to 70 million shares + 15% to grease underwriters, prices overnight, Tuesday is trade date, settles Friday and buyers get 25 cents back in a week.
One day of wiggle room in case pricing is difficult in pre-selling most of offering. Trade date can be Wednesday (with Monday settlement) and buyers still get dividend.
4:06 pm Ashford Trust announces plan to spin-off asset management business as a separate, publicly traded platform (AHT): AHT announced that its BOD has unanimously approved a plan to spin-off its asset mgmt business into a separate publicly traded company in the form of a taxable distribution.
Very small operation. Will be after nrf spin, so no hints on trading ratios. But, will watch if I remember.
Fidelity corrected the electronic summary of 2013 dividends to reflect the roc treatment of nrf 2013 common dividends a day or so ago. They also reduced the tax basis of each lot I own by the nontaxable dividends.
They also sent me a message today that they had received an extension from IRS to file 1099s for accounts like mine. Fidelity now says they will send my 1099s by March 14.
I suggest anybody who got 2013 dividends from nrf NOT file a tax return until a correct 1099 is received. It is a lot easier (and cheaper if you pay for tax prep) to get an extension of time to file than it is to prepare and file amended tax returns.
over 5 million short out of over 8 million reported...55.3%
I suspect some day traders added to short volume. Nevertheless, it's a high ratio.
Ain't gunna stop this train, though. Just too big with too much momo, inside and out.
4 trading days left to avoid a 25 cent hit. Best hope shorts have, imo, is an offering.
OOPS, 546 million was as of 2/25, not 12/31. That's what I get for rushing.
No matter, offering on the way. New healthcare deal will take between 300 and 400 million. That leaves Hamo too thin on liquid equity.
NRF had 546 million of unrestricted cash at 12/31. Since then, they loaned 104 million using, I suppose, 52 million of equity cash and paid 7 million for 10 million of CDOs. That leaves 487 million but does not count loan paybacks and other collections of principal so far in 2014.
The pending 1.05 billion healthcare properties deal will take between 300 and 400 million of cash equity (per CC).
Hamo likes to be liquid. Therefore I'm betting a common offering with a trade date before March 6 (the ex date)
is on the way.
So, I sold my only two flip lots in the taxable account and one trim lot in an IRA....about 11.6% of my nrf shares.
If I am right about the offering, I expect I will buy back two flip lots at an offering discount from today's price.....maybe 2.5 to 3.0%. Hamo is going to time this so the buyers of the offering will get the pending 25 cents. Hamo has done this several times because it makes his offering price look higher than it really is by the dividend amount.
If I'm wrong, then I have trimmed a way, way overweight position by almost 12%, but then have room for more flipping.
I never suggested selling NRF to buy GOOD. That's like dumping Miss America to pick up a frog.
GOOD is a mostly tax deferred more than 8% yield, nothing more. NRF's growth and price will keep it's percentage yield lower, but the dividend dollars (and price) will grow as far as I can see. Not so with GOOD. 5 years from now, the dividend will still be 1.50 per year, imo.
After Hamo commented on what a great 2013 NRF had, he said, .....see subject line.
I'm going to re-listen to CC and read transcript if SA publishes one, but here's some preliminary take-aways.
Growth opportunities so far from RXR and Flaherty exceeding expectations. Will do joint nontraded reit with RXR, multi-billion, and expect to be selling later this year. NSAM gets 50% of fees directly and 15% (30% of 50%) via 30% ownership of RXR.
Expect 73% of NRF 2014 assets = real estate counting direct and indirect via private equity deals & RXR. If market does not value appropriately, can do two spins. Not named, but healthcare and manufactured housing can each stand alone via spinoff.
Slides with 2014 projections will be posted on website tomorrow after close.
Lotsa questions about growth with RXR and Flaherty. No numbers given. Just to date is exceeding our expectations.
Broker can peddle 4 deals at same time. RXR deal makes 3. Room for one more, but not talked about.
SEC ok = biggest hurdle, time-wise, to spinout. Was some talk about exchanging notes before spin in June left me thinking more so spin will be June 30. Need to read transcript on this.
Still have some number crunching to do, but all seen and heard so far makes me believe Hamo is right: "The best is yet to come".
A brief, but sharp cascade of shorts getting stopped out. Hahahaha.
This is only the beginning. Wait for CC for the next spike.
It will take a while for the slow analysts to figure out just how profitable NSAM will be.