It's not assets, it's equity raised by nrf. Each billion of new equity issued = 15 million of base management fees to nsam. IF after tax cad is 70% of incremental revenue (will report on this after 4Q released), then 15 million of gross = 10.5 million of cad. I expect weighted average shares of, say, 210 million. Thus, 10.5 / 210 = 5 cents incremental cad per share on an incremental 15 million of revenue.
Then are the incentive fees. If nrf cad per share in a quarter exceeds 39 cents, nsam gets 15% of the excess until it gets to the higher level of incentive fees, 45 cents. NSAM gets 25% of the excess over 45 cents. That's just some frosting on the cake.
Not gunna happen, Rog. The socialist pig does not know how to make a deal. All he knows from his community organizer experience is how to demand. (Ah is entitled).
He proved his lack of negotiation skills in the 2011 budget talks. AFTER he had a preliminary deal with Boehner, he walked in and demanded another 800 billion in taxes over 10 years. That is a monster breech of business deal etiquette, the hallmark of a dishonorable snake. One just does not do that if one wants to be a trusted business associate. The repubs don't trust him with good reason.
Trying to materially change a deal after agreement in principal but before the fine print is agreed upon is the second worst sin in dealmaking. The worst is deliberately not keeping your part of a deal, the ultra snake, immediately shunned by the honorable business community. He swore on a bible to uphold the laws of the United States.
He is a no good dishonorable snake with no dealmaking skills. Not gunna happen.
I would not put sui's price growth percentage in the same ballpark as nsam's.
SUI is just a giant blob of money which is going to grow, per share wise in 2015, more than it has in the past five years due to acquisitions, but that ain't sayin much because past few year's per share growth stinks.
SUI is as safe as an annuity with a good chance, imo, the price increase will triple inflation. Get rich slowly while sleeping like a baby.
NSAM is a money machine with no assets with huge upside potential. But it's joined at the hip with nrf and is so new to the market, I think it could display huge volatility.
I like ETP and ARP for the long haul as I think ETP takes too hard a hit on oil prices when most of its revenue is from long term contracts not tied to the prices of energy commodities. ARP = fat tax deferred distributions with almost a year's worth of hedge protection. Yup, capex will decrease, but as long as oil comes back in a year, arp will do just fine. If oil stays at 55 through the end of 2015, then arp distribution will seriously drop in 2016, but I think most of that price hit is already baked into the price.
SCCO...just a couple of years to huge production increases. When capex drops off, dividend goes up. Problem here is I think Grupo is planning to take us out at a small premium before the much bigger bucks start rolling in.
NSAM is my favorite for 2015 price growth because I don't do biotech, social media or software.
Just as the last Patriots win was ugly, it's still a W. A touch and run as you call it, when the combined price at the same time is 40 or over, the prediction was attained, fleeting as it was. A closing price of a combined 40 or over puts it in the history books which is certainly better than an intraday "touch & run".
I think nsam is going to take care of itself just as it is in 2015, as I believe it's just a matter of the slow and lazy coming to the realization of what 2015's cad per share will be with just what we now know. I see 1.23 with no surprise news. New initiatives to increase cad is just frosting on the cake.
As to NRF, I can't see Hamo going a year without doing something big to get the yield down. His cost of capital is way too high at over 9%. Add 1.5% for nsam and it's just too hard to move the cad per share needle, as I illustrated on the IV board with the European office deal. For tax reasons, spinning out the mortgage business is easiest, but it is just about big enough to stand alone as a public company.
In any event, over 9% tax deferred yield is just fine with me with no price increase. I can live with that for years and years. Gimmee the tax sheltered yield from nrf and the tax deferred growth from nsam. Combined, it's a helluva investment, imo.
Don't know whether it's the stink from arcp that's rubbed off on nrf this morning or the stigma of mortgage reit in a rising rate environment
Things are really bad at arcp when they have to check to make sure they really own the real estate their financials say they own.
The annualized dividend will be 1.68 after May is announced. Capitalized at 6% = 28, 6.5% = 25.85, and 7% = 24. I expect the dividend yield will fall to between 6 and 7% once the market recognizes nrf as an equity reit with a mortgage kicker. That may take spinning out the mortgage business, in which case I am referring to a combined price.
Annualized post spin cad for 2014 may be 1.76. I do not remember making a 2015 cad per share prediction for nrf yet. Perhaps you can identify the post which caused you to say that.
I also have no problem with your opinion that my opinion is too high.
Thanks for my growing belly, lunco. A prediction is merely stating a belief that an opinion will happen. The only way to expect someone else to also believe it will happen is to state the basis for the opinion. Then the reader can evaluate the sufficiency of facts and the validity of the reasoning. Sharing the facts, which are sometimes tea leaves and inference therefrom, teaches others how to do it. That's my ultimate goal. A retail investor with a reasonable amount of intelligence and a willingness to work hard CAN be ahead of the market with the right type of company.
My mantra: Learn how to learn and you can learn anything.
I don't do year end predictions. If nsam touches 30 on any day between now and 12/31/15 I win regardless of the price at the close on any day. Same applies to 22 and 26.
For dividend capture flip. Ex div 65 cents on 12/29. Hold for div & a little pop on top. Good for a safe 2%, IMO.
If wrong, hold for earnings which includes an estimate of 2015, which will be a very nice growth year in cad per share. They may also announce May dividend increase with 4Q earnings.
Decent flip or safe hold. A winner either way, imo.
Just saw 17.77 + 22.23 as last price at the same time. There's 40 before the end of the year as I predicted last spring, just as I predicted 17 before the split spin and 6/30 as the spin date, not to mention I predicted 50 cents in May and August last March after first presentation and also predicted a combined 50 cents in November before the 40-10 was announced.
I predicted 40 to 50 combined by 12/31/14 with the spread being mostly determined by the nsam multiple which has been disappointing (to me). I attribute it to a slow, lazy market which has failed to see (so far) nsam's 2015 cad of 1.23. That will change with the first presentation (aka spoonfeeding) in early March. NSAM will be at least 25 within 10 days of its release.
I also predict 28 for nsam after May presentation release and at least 30 before 12/31/15.....all barring some macro disaster like all-out war in Ukraine or middle east. Also, NRF at 22 by 12/31/15, not so much from cad per share growth, but from the market finally treating nrf as an equity reit. Spin off the mortgage business and 22 becomes 26.
Those who have been reading me long enough can vouch for the track record of predictions. Remember this a year from now. I will.
The dividend was raised to 63 cents in April, 2005, then to 65 cents in April, 2014.......9 long years between raises while the insiders, including directors, have raised their pay by an obscene percentage.
BTW, mission accomplished Friday night.....rare prime rib for me ( so big I took some home) and baked stuffed shrimp for wifey. Thank you. We toasted to Northstar (for my dinner trade and another flip) and to kenpalley for treating us to dinner. Merry Christmas!!