Now the fill is complete at 15.68. May not get out of these for a while, but that's ok.....dividend and spin is coming. I'll eat my hat if the combined price at the spin, which is less than 2 months away, is less than 17 (ignoring the reverse).
Pace is slowing. Average per calendar day for the last 7 supplements, in thousands:
Their presentation assumes 800 million raised in 2014. They are way behind that pace.
At first I thought the scientific study which concluded that those who flunk out of kindergarten for the #$%$ ran higher body temperatures than those who graduated was a bunch of baloney. Now I see proof it is correct.
"Anyone out there know if NRF is still planning a spinoff of shares to existing shareholders."
" Did I miss something?"
Tutes got positions to what they wanted to show on 3/31 public report by Monday. No more tute need/want to move = low volume. I attribute the same "resting" to lack of late afternoon buying push which had become a regular feature. Market tides ebb and flow. In between is slack tide.
Looks looks slack tide now. Makes it much easier for even a small (say 30,000 shares) seller in a hurry or shorts to move the price significantly.
Not at all concerned. All that I can see from nrf is growth which eventually will be reflected in price. Pace is slower than many would like, but I'd rather see it done right slowly than done wrong fast. IMO, Hamo is as careful and deliberate as he is smart and greedy......my kind of guy.
The problem we long time longs have to deal with is we are spoiled with more than two years of nearly straight line price increases, especially since the spin announcement. About the only down spell was the Bernanke drubbing of reits last summer.
Yeah, I'd like it to go up every week with a couple of flips and a dinner trade thrown in for fun. Now I'm two days with no fun. Boo hoo. Guess I'll just have to wait because I'm not even beginning to think about selling a core share.
Extra 1% is gone but market discount is still there. Still a decent buy on the dilution freaks who will be wrong again. An internally managed mortgage reit just won't do an offering unless it has a deal pipeline which will be accretive when the new equity is levered up with cheap debt.
I've been buying offering dips for a couple of years....about 2 dozen. Have not had a loser from this group yet. RAS the worst in a long time, but now green ex div today. I'll flip out with another 2% (on top of div) and look for the next offering deal.
Today is the trade date. The settlement date is the 3rd business day after the trade date. Gee, the settlement date happens to be 4/7. The offering closes on the settlement date. On 4/7 the company delivers shares to the underwriters and the underwriters deliver cash to the co.
Buy under 7.52 for more than 1% under offer price. Equity raised will be levered up into accretive cash flow.
I have bought more than 2 dozen offering discounts at more than 1% under offer price in the last two years and have not had a loser of the bunch yet.
The dilution freaks do the lemming kneejerk every time and are wrong almost every time. Especially with mreits, the dilution freaks just don't understand that the offering would not be made unless it was accretive.
Offering 13 million shares at 7.59 so any cost below 7.52 is 1% or more under offer price.
Another mreit with big div yield. Equity will be levered up into accretive cad, imo. Discount won't last. High yield or fast flip.
Strange day. No question in my mind spike beginning in very hi 20s to 44 was mostly a cascade of shorts getting stopped out. However, once that buying stopped, sellers dumped fast and hard. So fast and so hard I don't have a feel for the volume waiting to sell over 16.30.
As usual, drooling sellers raced each other to the door. The surprise to me was no comeback late afternoon and a big dump just before the close.
Yeah, we hit a new 7-yr high of 16.44, but I have no confidence that the sellers over 16.30 have been absorbed.
Don't know how many these are and today gave me no clue. Nevertheless, I still think we will be over 17 before the spin. Internal momo and price momo still up. To me, 3/27 was a freak sell panic when it was obvious 16 floor was broken. Need a few more days, imo, of trading over 16 to reestablish that as a floor.
Oh well, I closed another Christmas fund flip lot early at 16.34 and bought it back this afternoon at 16.13. Still hold'em and a grand ahead for the effort. Gimmee the same tomorrow and I'll do it again, and again and again.
Well, well, the 3/27 panic did not last very long. I'm sure the nrf/rxr deal announcement helped.
Relax and enjoy the show. The shorts who got stopped out over 16.30 wish you well, as their pain has ended for the covered shares.
2 billion nontraded reit just announced by nrf/rxr. If structured like other nrf nontraded reit deals, fees = about 3% of contributed equity.
NSAM gets half...1.5% and RXR gets half, but NRF gets 30% of what rxr distributes and is assigning this cash stream to nsam. So, eventually, nsam gets another .45% (30% of 1.5%). 1.95% x 2 B = 39 million.
Very little will be collected in 2014 due to registration and launch preparation time, but I bet this will sell faster than nrf deals to date. A good chunk will be collected in 2015 and I expect full fees for 2016.
I suggest all not sell nsam until we get a feel for its rate of growth. I expect its growth rate will be much greater than NRF's because growth is not capital dependent and the denominator will be smaller. NSAM could sell at a VERY high multiple.
Close today at 16.14 vs 13.45 at 12/31 = 2.69 on price + 25 cent div = 2.94 total return = 21.86% total return in 3 months. This annualizes to 87.44%.
We ain't got no complaints. English teachers need not remind me about double negatives. I like to talk like a dumbbell.