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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

dar200 289 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    DAR gets elected!

    by hsterniac Mar 10, 2015 11:51 AM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 10, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    A waste of my time. Hamo will listen politely, mumble a few platitudes, thank me for my call and then ignore the whole thing. Not enough clout here. Much better if the CEO of Steadfast made that call.

  • Reply to

    Dismal market performance

    by dar200 Mar 9, 2015 4:07 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 10, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    I'm not focusing on one day. I'm focusing on a management action which I consider detrimental to shareholders. Does it not occur to you that they are hiding something when they fail to disclose a common disclosure they used to disclose?

    Does it not occur to you that when they fail to tell you what they expect to accomplish in 2015, you have no way of assessing whether they did a good job in executing the action plan to attain those accomplishments?

    You are a part owner of a business. You have a right to know in general terms what management's plans are for the year and the expected result of those plans. They just denied me that right. THAT'S what I'm angry about.

  • Reply to

    Dismal market performance

    by dar200 Mar 9, 2015 4:07 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 10, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    No it isn't. A short is a trader. I am a part owner of this business. Management works for me and other shareholders. I have every right and reason to be angry at management for this step away from transparency and every right and reason to try to get them to reverse this course.

    None of this means I have changed my opinion as to whether these two companies remain a good long term investment for their respective but different reasons.

  • Reply to

    Email sent to nrf/nsam analysts

    by dar200 Mar 7, 2015 2:35 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 9, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    My opinion is 99% no dividend decrease (when combined) with Europe spinoff or any spinoff. It's just not done.

    BTW, there is no cad confusion with nrf. 1Q will be between 42 and 46 cents. NRF has morphed into SUI with less seasonality. Hess said at CC something like 4Q and 1Q are worst quarters for hotels.

  • Reply to

    press release for closing the offering

    by ruswise Mar 9, 2015 3:59 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 9, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Don't hold your breath.

  • Relative to major indexes and equity reits.

    Self-inflicted and richly deserved, imo.

  • Reply to

    Email sent to nrf/nsam analysts

    by dar200 Mar 7, 2015 2:35 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 9, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    That works both ways. Suppose no guidance = analysts guessing too high in the dark. Then when actual comes out it's way below consensus. Result = market slam.

  • Reply to

    Why NSAM drop today in rising market?

    by jdaugs3 Mar 9, 2015 2:27 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 9, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    I'm not the only one who disapproves of the lack of forward guidance in their recently released presentation slides.

    Yeah, one can calculate a range of annualized cad per share with what nsam now manages, but they do not include incentive fees even though got some in each of their first two quarters, they do not give us any clue whatsoever about what they expect in nontraded capital raising or the fees and commissions therefrom. Last year they disclosed expecting to raise 800 million for the nontradeds. Surely they know what nrf's share of rxr's promote fee on rxr's pending sale to blackstone, but they won't say whether they expect nrf's share of manangement fees from rxr will exceed 10 million.

    Surely they have goals for 2015, action plans to attain them and detailed variable budgets. If they tell us a range of cad from their goals and action plans, they have to explain significant variances from their plans and budget. Then we have a tool to help judge whether management did a good, middlin or lousy job at executing the action plans to attain the goals. By not telling us what they plan and expect to accomplish, they take away this tool on which we may judge performance.

    They have detailed variable budgets. They know what they expect for 2015 cad per share under various results on the action plans. Why won't they tell us? What are they hiding?

    What equity reit does not give forward guidance on their preferred measure of operating performance (ffo, affo, cad, fad)? I own several. All but nrf did. NRF did provide estimated cad in the past. Why are they stepping back into the closet of secrecy?

    I think nrf is struggling to increase cad per share, especially with the griffin properties and are hoping hotels or private equity gives them a boost so they don't show a decline. They don't want to publish an estimate now which does not show a decline and then fall short. IMO, it is time for all shareholders and analysts to complain about the lack of common forward guid

  • Reply to

    Dividend Correction

    by empire29_lake Mar 6, 2015 6:30 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 9, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    Fidelity made a "preliminary" 1099 available online a couple of weeks ago, but it wasn't mailed as a filed 1099. Then Fidelity said the 1099 would be sent by March 14.

    Anticipating that Fidelity might know before NRF posted on their website, I wrote down the aggregate cost basis of nrf on a little yellow stickum and stuck it to the bottom of my screen. Fidelity got the info Feb 27 and posted the reduction in basis that night. I noticed the next morning and called fidelity, but they could not give me specifics on Sat. I got it and calcilated the percentages when Fidelity changed the return of capital distributions in my "tax info" link.

    It appears Fidelity got tired of getting complaints about having to file amended tax returns for corrected 1099s so they do not send a wrong one when they expect corrections.

    Of course, this situation is caused by the government where there is always time to do it twice but never time to do it right the first time. ObominationCare is a classic of do it twice.

  • Reply to

    This dog has teeth, 17.50 here we come

    by longtillthe30th Mar 8, 2015 10:06 AM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 8, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Enough. wrongtillthe30th comes here and demonstrates appalling ignorance and stupidity, gets called on it, and now just posts moronic harrassment.

    This dog has teeth too. It's called the iggy button.

    Click!

  • NRF and NSAM posted new presentation slides to their respective websites last night or this morning.

    Neither presentation gives an estimated range of 2015 cad per share. This is a step back into the closet of secrecy for NRF and a very poor start at transparency for NSAM.
    Both have detailed budgets for 2015 and probably variable budgets in the event of contingencies and other variables. Why won't they share an estimated range of bottom line cad per share like NRF has done for the past several years?

    What equity REIT does not give forward ffo, affo, fad or cad guidance?

    I urge you individually and collectively to demand more forward disclosure from NRF and NSAM. NRF can disclose an estimate without a spinoff of Europe assets and then adjust it at a later date when the spin date is known. NSAM leaves us hanging with no guidance whatsoever as to their expected growth rate, especially no disclosure of expected nontraded capital to be raised. When NSAM was still part of NRF they disclosed in a footnote to the cad estimate that they used raising $800 million in 2014 in their calculations. This year, no disclosure whatsoever.

    If I were in your shoes I would inform NRF management that if they failed to make these common disclosurers, I would downgrade the stock to hold or sell and tell the whole world why.

    Please, please, all express disappointment and disapproval over this lack of transparency. NRF won't listen to me as I am just a peanut retail. You guys have clout. Please use it.

  • Reply to

    Both presentations out

    by dar200 Mar 7, 2015 12:10 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 7, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    Robber shares are added back to get cad. Prior NRF disclosure of est cad per share was not impacted by robber shares.

  • Can be found on respective websites.

    Neither gives an estimated range of cad per share for 2015. What a disappointment.

    NSAM gives estimated annualized fees from what they have now, a pretax cad rate of 70% to 75% of fees and a tax rate of 15% to 20% on pretax cad. Using 200 million shares, what they have now yields a range of 88 cents to 99 cents.

    There is no estimate of 2015 growth in fees from 2015 capital raising or incentive fees.....just a chart of things which could add. This is pure baloney. They have a 2015 budget. Why don't they disclose it?

    NRF gave NO estimate of 2015 cad, a step back into the dark from prior presentation slides. The only reference to 2015 cad per share is 4Q 44 cents annualized.

    IMO, a huge step away from transparency they preach into the darkness of secrecy. They have the info. They have detailed budgets. Why won't they disclose their estimates?

  • Reply to

    Nrf is the sequel to arcp

    by abcdsteve123 Mar 6, 2015 9:56 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 7, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    Yup, I marked it with the iggy button.

  • Reply to

    NRF put to call ratio...

    by lunco Mar 6, 2015 5:37 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    Thanks for your vote of confidence, but to be a dinner trade it must be a same day round trip which I did not get on today's buy. Doesn't matter because we had dinner on you tonight. We raised our glasses to lunco as well as northstar.

    As to calls, yeah, huge buying of Sep 22s. Makes sense to me as the spin details of Europe should be out in a month or so with the filing of the initial prospectus. I expect the prospectus will be amended to its final form in July or so. Thus the market can make a reasoned judgement as to how europe will trade before the sep calls expire.

  • 8-K just filed. NRF sold 12 million and DB sold 48 million. Drop dead date for closing forward sale agreement = Sep 2, 2015.

  • Just bought 5,000 at 18.122 betting for runup to close for dinner trade or flip after presentation materials released, which might be tonight.

  • Reply to

    dar?

    by dugtherug Mar 6, 2015 12:26 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    The best thing I can do for dug is get him to learn the answer for himself. Then he will remember and never have to ask the question again. I could have given him the answer but that would have taught him nothing. We'd get the same question again in a quarter or two. In the meantime he is a financial danger to himself in securities like NRF. Yeah, some would call it being a harda$$. Others would call it tough love. It is better to learn a hard lesson than a fatal one.

    As to you having no idea why anyone would listen to me, I agree, you have no idea, not a clue. That's why I classify you as morbidly stupid.

  • Reply to

    dar?

    by dugtherug Mar 6, 2015 12:26 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    I suggest you hold nothing but ETFs and mutual funds until you don't have to ask such an elementary question. Go learn the answer all by yourself. Then, perhaps you will remember it.

  • Reply to

    NRF = table pounder at 18.46

    by dar200 Mar 3, 2015 12:35 PM
    dar200 dar200 Mar 6, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    Ex div, now it's a table pounder at 18.06. 1.60 / 18.06 = 8.86% yield, I suspect mostly tax deferred.

    If we get a 2 cent increase in May, 1.68 / 18.06 = 9.3% yield.

    Plus, effect of Europe spinoff not understood/expected/built into price.
    Plus Hamo ain't done with spinoffs. More will follow if yield doesn't go down.

    Today the usual knee-jerk over good jobs report which means fed is more likely to raise interest rates which is bad so most of the trading programs sell in unison. Nobody thinking more jobs = more personal income = more consumer spending = good for economic growth = demand for more labor = more jobs.....etc etc.

    This will pass as all excessive knee jerks do.

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