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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

dar200 472 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 7:37 PM Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    new MLV CO analyst rating "buy" on nrf

    by octopusink Jul 2, 2014 10:29 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 2, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    MLV analyst has done this:

    1.44 / 6% = 24 I'm not the only one who can figure it out.

    Now re-read today's "Dividends" lead post.

  • Reply to


    by dar200 Jul 2, 2014 9:32 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 2, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Yup. Then the people who pay attention can make money off those who don't. Lemmings are easy pickings.

  • Reply to


    by dar200 Jul 2, 2014 9:32 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 2, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    4th grade math

    suppose a company makes 200 of income and has 200 shares outstanding. What is eps?

    Suppose that company does a 1 for 2 reverse split. How many post split shares are out?

    Have earnings changed because there are half the shares outstanding?

    Calculate eps, post split.

    Fill in the blank. When the denominator is halved and the numerator stays the same, the quotient____________.

    Bring this paper home and show mommy what you learned today.

  • dar200 by dar200 Jul 2, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    My crystal ball is lousy on dates but great at dividends.

    Aug div = 50 cents from nrf. None from nsam.

    Nov div is either:

    36 from nrf + 14 from nsam = 50 cents
    35 from nrf + 15 from nsam = 50 cents

    Feb div may be up a little for both, but I doubt it. First increase for both is likely next Aug after one whole year of separate operation.

    So, for this Aug 50 cents is a steal. It's 2.94% of 17 which annualizes to 11.76%. Going forward, 1.44 (36 x 4) is 8.47% of 17. I'll bet 2014 is 100% roc because of the loss on exchangeable notes, more depreciation from equity reit assets, loss of nontraded fee revenue and fees paid to nsam. Even at 20, 1.44 is 7.2%. If you are a yield investor, ya gotta jump on NRF before the market figures it out. At 35 cents, percentages are lower, but under 17 is a monster steal, imo.

    NSAM at 60 cents or 56 yields in the neighborhood of 2.9% of 20.

  • Reply to

    Yield investor alert!!

    by dar200 Jun 30, 2014 9:50 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 2, 2014 5:03 AM Flag

    EACH is based on 395 million. I can't teach reading comprehension.

  • All-time intraday used to be 18.15 in Feb 2007. All time close high 17.65 was Jan 2007. We beat both today.

    If Fidelity is accurate with all the confusion, intraday = 17.23 + 19.20 = 36.43 /2 = 18.215.
    Close = 16.80 + 19.20 = 36 even = 18.00.

    NRF has never been higher.

  • Reply to

    Overweight with NRF

    by thebigestb Jul 1, 2014 3:29 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    IMO, it's different strokes for different folks. A very young person can be 90% nrf.
    An old person who has just about enough to retire on, maybe 5% is cautious max.

    Always ask yourself, Can I take, financially and psychologically, a 50% overnight hit to the price?
    How does spouse feel about size of position? Will a 50% hit cost you your marriage? Yep, I've seen marriages go down over "all-in" ELN when it crashed (seen means message board postings of divorce.

    Or you can do the back door test. Suppose you have a 1 million portfolio and 400K of that is nrf (or nrf family).
    If you sold the nrf, you would pay 100K in income taxes, leaving 300k of cash.

    Now ask yourself, if you had 600k of securities containing no nrf and 300K of cash, would you put all 300k of cash into nrf in one shot? If your answer is yes or maybe, you are probably better off holding. If your answer is "hell no", then you might have too much nrf. Remember, every day you can sell but don't is a back door decision to invest the after tax cash in that stock.

    Then there is the ride the winners rule. You won't add to a position once that position is "X" percent of your portfolio, but you will let winners grow and grow. Others will set an upside limit. I won't buy above 10% and I will sell over 30%.

    BTW, I'm over 30% and I can financially take a 50% hit without it coming close to it changing my standard of living. Psychologically....I'll be more angry at myself for being so greedy (or stupid). Wife can take it, but I'd be in serous doo doo for a long time. No amount of dinners out would cure a permanent 50% hit to nrf's current price.

  • Reply to

    Yield investor alert!!

    by dar200 Jun 30, 2014 9:50 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    No, 82 cent midpoint was based on 395 million shares. That's pre-reverse. Think 1.64 from now until the next presentation.

  • Reply to

    It's official

    by jab2212 Jul 1, 2014 8:08 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    The 5 year rule only applies when you buy a business. An internal startup can be spun off sooner.

    If it's not tax free (actually deferred) we're all in a heap-o-trouble.

  • Reply to


    by lunco Jun 27, 2014 4:10 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    Thanks for all the thanks. I'm happy to help those who help themselves.

    After several private email requests, I've figured out a way you can thank me with calories IF YOU SO CHOOSE in a way we both remain only screen names. One is a restaurant and the other is a liquor store which happens to have 1.75L Tanqueray on sale for 29.99 this week thru Saturday.

    I have spoken to the owner of the restaurant and manager to the liquor store. Both have agreed to handle this without identification of real persons to either side.

    The liquor store is Island Wine & Spirits in Newport, tel 401-847-2641. The manager is Richard, but you do not have to speak with him personally unless the clerk gives you a hard time. Tell the clerk you want to purchase a gift for Dan Richman to be held at the store by Richard for pickup. When the clerk asks who the gift is from, give your SCREEN NAME. Then place your order, pay by credit card and it's done.

    The restaurant is 15 Point Road in Portsmouth......401-683-3138. Owner is Shaun if you have a problem. Tell person you want to buy a gift card for Dan Richman to be held by Shaun (or at register) for pickup. Give your SCREEN NAME as the donor. Then pay with your credit card.

    Both places have websites if you want to check them out. The restaurant shows what living on an island is like.

    I'm not asking, but am happy to accept two of the pleasures in my and booze. The other one comes from my wife.

  • Reply to

    Be careful with nsam prices

    by dar200 Jul 1, 2014 11:05 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 2:42 PM Flag

    I won't answer the question but I will tell you I just bought 5,000 flippers at 16.70. If I'm wrong, I just hold because 50 cents is coming in August and more importantly, Hamo won't stand for this price when 60% of 1.64 cad comes from equity reit assets. 16.70 / 1.64 = 10.18 times forward cad. Either the market recognized what kind of assets are producing the cash flow or there will be another spinout.

  • Reply to

    Outrageous compensation

    by dar200 May 16, 2014 1:52 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    And they just gave Dearing 25,000 shares @ 50 = 1.25 million. Absolutely outrageous.

  • The spin reduced Fidelity's margin requirements.

    They have nsam at 30%, even though it is the largest surcharge for concentration.

    For new nrf, maintenance now 35% vs 45%.....concentration surcharge from 10% to 5%. Industry surcharge of 5% is gone.

    For SUI, from 40% to 35%......industry surcharge of 5% is gone. NSAM not a reit.

    Strange, NSAM now bigger than either NRF or SUI which both carry concentration 5% extra. I suspect Fidelity will catch up with overnight update. Since nsam just posted, it was assigned standard maintenance of 30%. I bet tomorrow will be 35%.

    Any other brokers showing margin maintenance percents on new nrf and nsam? If yes, please share the info here.

  • Reply to

    Brokers showing transactions

    by dar200 Jul 1, 2014 9:41 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Now 12:35....Fidelity showing split and spin. Combined cost will be allocated after NRF speaks on subject.

  • Reply to

    Be careful with nsam prices

    by dar200 Jul 1, 2014 11:05 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Not going to answer. Read yesterday's "Attention yield investors". That's to hold for yield.

    For flipping, pick your own price. As long as you are willing and able to hold, I don't see how you can go wrong with any price under 17.

    NRF will pay a 50 cent div in Aug. .50/16.76 = 2.98% x 4 = 11.93% annualized yield on this one dividend. November will be lower, but the sum of nrf = nsam div will at least = 50 cents.

  • All supposedly real time, as fast as I could. Filelity 18.40, yahoo 18.41, AMTD streamer 18.09. That ain't right.

    Be careful if trading.

    Fidelity still showing no split or spin shares, now 11:05 am.

  • Healthcare sup 6 = 342.3 collected thru 6/27 vs 334.0 thru 6/24, so 8.3 million collected in 3 days, an average of 2.766 per day.

    Income 2 sup 3 = 137.8 collected thru 6/27 vs 133.6 thru 6/23 for 4.2 million in 4 days = 1.050 ave per day.
    Together, average over 3 mill per day, which is great, but I suspect an end of Q super push by the reps.

    Together I have both raising 193 million in 2Q (vs 150 in 1Q) with one business day to go.

  • dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    ".......hopefully all analysts will come out with new ratings/targets this week....."

    This week? Ya gotta be kidding. Quarter has ended and Friday a summer holiday. They are already heading out of town.

  • Reply to

    Brokers showing transactions

    by dar200 Jul 1, 2014 9:41 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Fidelity just change the nsam-wi I purchased yesterday to nsam but no cost basis.

    NRF still showing old shares and NO spin NSAM.

    Horrible, just horrible service.

  • Reply to

    Brokers showing transactions

    by dar200 Jul 1, 2014 9:41 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 1, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Fidelity quote (not my account) showing nsam at 18.13 last and over 214k traded. AMTD showing no nsam volume on streamer.

    I am really pi$$ed off at Fidelity, but it looks like I am not alone.

    AMTD now showing my nsam at over 1,000 per share, which is the last price shown on its streamer.
    Fidelity quote screen showing nsam at 18 with 350k shares traded.

    I'm just going to sit out the day with things all screwed up.

33.23-0.02(-0.06%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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