Yeah, but they owned 10.4 million at 9/30. They were a big net seller during the quarter.
I think the deadline for institutional holding reports is tomorrow. If the nasdaq people work nights and weekends, we should have a pretty accurate institutional ownership report on the NASDAQ website. If the deadline is the 15th, the keepaway big guys won't file until Tuesday. So, at the latest, end of next week = accurate institutional ownership at 12/31.
The average of the intraday highs and lows for the 5 trading days ending today is 54.14729. 95% of the average is 51.4399255. If ETP rounds to the fourth decimal place as they have done in the past, the discount drip price is 51.4399.
Put another way, the discount saves you 2.707 per unit off the average price. Or put another way, the discount gives you an effective distribution rate of 96.842 cents per unit (.92 / 95%).
As we should all know 4Q is reported later than the first 3Qs because the 4th qtr and year are audited whereas the interim reports are unaudited. This year is about two weeks later than the prior few years.
I suspect this is due to auditor scrutiny of deconsolidating of VIEs (because the gaap rule is so wishy washy)
and the proposed spinoff. They have to file their 10-K based on this years numbers and the spin proposal. I suspect all are racking their brains to make sure everything about the spin they can possibly put in the 10K is in it. The only problem I have with the delay beyond normal is I have to wait longer to watch shorts get killed.
IMO, the odds of this dividend being less than 22 cents are about 1% whereas I think the probability of an extra, special dividend is about 6%. Hamo is much, much too smart (market-wise) to get off penny per quarter without a pre-announcement.
Without news other than a 22 cent dividend, I expect the price will creep up to between 14.75 and 14.95 as we approach the 27th. Remember to subtract the accreted dividend from the trading price. I am currently using 20 cents. A buy today, imo, at 14.65 is paying 14.45 for the stock and buying 20 cents worth of dividend.
The day before ex-div, the adjustment will be 22 cents.
I've had gecko on ignore for a long time. The guy is a worthless turd. You guys should not give him the time of day. Best treatment of jerks like him is the iggy button.
Yup, they keep on pushing back. Today over 61% short; yesterday over 53%. Recently they have held the tide back after the furious assault at 14.99. Perhaps the long "tide" is waiting for dividend increase and most of all some specific hints on how profitable nsam may be and how fast it will grow on new initiatives with RXR and Flaherty.
NRF is relatively easy to predict within a medium range because it's all a function of return on leveraged equity, the components of which are constrained by market forces. Earn between 13% and 18% on leveraged equity? How much equity ya got? Then multiply.
NSAM is a different story. It's profit is a function of assets under management because percentage fees are constrained by competitive market forces. The wildcard is how fast nsam can grow assets under management. We've seen organic growth......maybe between 800 million and 1 billion per year. The unknown is the increment to be added be RXR, Flaherty, acquisitions and other means we have not heard about yet. This is what can drive a dull stake through the hearts of the shorts.
Don't know whether we get enough details on asset growth plans at 2/27 CC but am confident such details will be made public before the spin. Hamo ain't gunna let NSAM begin trading without spelling out the potential. Hamo takes care of Hamo so I trust him to take care of me, a tagalong.
57.675 million short at 1/31 settlement (1/28 trade date) vs 56.554 at 1/15 (1/10 trade).
Add another 1.121 million to the sucker club.
This report included trading on 1/22 and 1/23 when it looked like a covering squeeze spiked daily highs to 14.95 and 14.99, respectively.
Better cover before the CC on 2/27, shorts. If Hamo is more than generic about growth plans with RXR and Flaherty, 15 will be in the rear view mirror.
In any event, shorts are longs best friends. Just think, all these people just waiting to buy almost 58 million shares. Love it!!
Rog is right. You're wrong thinking of a dividend increase near term.
When we got the 2.75 windfall in Nov 2012 I posted here that all should consider it a prepayment of 10 quarters of not getting 25 cents because that 25 cents was going to be spent on capex.
12 cents per Q will be about 400 million in 2014. Add 2.3 billion of capex and 2.7 billion is gone. They will generate about 2 billion of operating cash flow so 700 million comes out of 12/31 cash balance. Now look at the 12/31/13 balance sheet and tell me where a dividend increase will come from. It ain't there.
Recent pop is confirmation of political change in Peru which means Tia Maria and Toquepala get finished adding 220,000 tons per year. In addition the Cananea project is partially finished (a small part) but is closer to being totally finished.
IMO, mostly Peru. Market can smell lots more copper in not too long a time.
Please post to this thread, your location, name of electricity supplier, total cost of your latest electricity bill, number of kwh used and cost (cents) per kwh to 3 decimal places.
I'm in Newport, RI, National Grid is the supplier, my latest bill is $132.25 for 770 kwh...17.188 cents per kwh which happens to be more than a 10% increase from the prior bill. I should change my screen name to raped in RI.
ABBV and APU......worst quick flip calls I've made in about two years. Willing to hold ABBV as a good investment.
I recommended APU (and bought it) on the nonsensical knee jerk over etp selling some shares. Was selling in mid 44s before offering announcement. I expected rapid recovery to pre offer price....WRONG.
Nevertheless, very cold weather on the side of APU for 2 quarters, imo, so I bought more to catch distribution.
Am barely green on the total including the distribution but am willing to wait thru 3/31 earnings report if price not back over 44 before then. Lousy flip buy. Will not do again on next etp sale which should be jan 2015.
APU a rare exception to my rule of buying to flip that which I am willing to hold on fundamentals (like abbv).
I did it because I own etp, so know how and why they got apu units and knew from beginning they would sell over several years to spread out tax gain. Retail propane is a cutthroat, capital and labor intensive business. Not something I want long term
U.S Department of Energy website has a fill in the blanks worksheet which tells you how much it costs for 100,000 BTUs of heat from different fuel sources. You enter your local cost per unit of fuel and can also enter an efficiency percentage where appropriate. Here in RI, electricity is more than 3 times the cost of natural gas per 100,000 BTUs (which is a therm). Oil is more than double. I did not check propane because natural gas was in the house when I bought it.
Heat, hot water and the fireplace was natural gas. Wife wanted a stainless kitchen range which was electric.
I bought a gas range. When the current electric clothes dryer breaks, it will be replaced with natural gas. I also added a whole house generator which runs on natural gas and operates automatically and a gas space heater for my workshop in the basement.
Yeah, you have to pay the plumber to hook up the gas appliance which replaces another fuel, but that's a one-time cost. The savings go on for as long as natural gas is cheaper than other fuels.
Hell no. If I even thought the probability of such a surprise was more than nil, I'd have a helluva lot smaller position.
BUT, the point is that bad things can happen to good companies (which BWP wasn't), sometimes overnight.
A well-placed earthquake which is strong enough can take out 50% of SCCO's copper production for six months to a year. A one-product biotech can have a failed clinical trial.
BWP is largely a pipeline rental company which is also exposed to commodities prices. No question, today's news blindsided the market.
Lots of us here are way overweight NRF. This thread is just a reminder. It CAN happen. My advice is be sure you can take the hit if it ever comes. If the answer is "no", then lighten up. For me, I can take such a hit without it destroying a comfortable retirement. I sure as hell would be unhappy about it, but I can survive it easily. For me, it means my kids get a smaller inheritance. Tough.
All whose position in NRF is way too big a percentage of the portfolio, me included, should take a look at BWP this morning.
Can you take a 35% hit overnight, financially and psychologically?
Was certainly wrong on 4Q calendar. I guessed earnings date announcement on 1/23, earnings to be released on 2/14 and dividend announced on 2/13 to be paid 2/28. I now expect all of the preceding will be wrong.
As to amount, I still expect 22 cents and, unless they change the relationship of dividend announcement date to earnings release date, this dividend will be paid during the week beginning 3/10, most likely, imo, on 3/14.
Net cash cost per pound of copper: FCX = 1.49, SCCO = 1.00
Of course, they both play definitional games with net cost per pound, so a better measure is after tax bottom line profit per pound of copper: SCCO = 1.156 FCX = .839
On a bottom line basis, SCCO made 31.7 cents per copper pound more than FCX.
They both produce all they can. They both sell all they produce. The selling price is set by the world market.
Thus, the difference is cost. SCCO clearly the winner.
Another reason for the delay in announcing the tax treatment of 2013 dividends is they are not sure all the common dividends will be taxable, meaning total dividends paid might exceed taxable income.
As I have previously posted, depreciation expense has increased significantly over 2012 because new investments in 2012 and 2013 have been heavily weighted toward ownership of hard assets (as opposed to loans) via manufactured housing, the private equity partnerships and some apartments.
When depreciation exceeds principal reduction on debt, cash income (cad) exceeds taxable income to the extent thereof.
Next, preferred dividends carry out taxable income first. 100% of preferred dividends will be taxable before the first penny of common dividends is taxable. We have preferred C & new D on top of A&B to catch taxable income first.
Soooo, when they believe some of the common dividend may not be taxable, they take the time to sharpen the pencil to get a relatively precise taxable income number. Put another way, if taxable income far exceeds dividends paid, there is no risk in announcing 100% of all dividends are taxable ordinary income before you know the precise number.
BTW, having undistributed taxable income at 12/31/13 is not a problem with reit status or paying corporate taxes on 10% or less because the first 3 dividends of 2014 can be considered distributions of 2013 taxable income.
So, here's hoping for some roc portion of the common dividend. I need it.
Now check the date of the dividend announcement as it relates to the date of the earnings announcement over the past year. Do you see any correlation?