Almost a million shares, creeping up decently until 3:50 when the last touched 9.42 (the ask), then BAM, the bid went from 9.41 to 9.38 in a blink of the eye followed by relentless selling on the dropping bid. The market manipulators won the day, imo.
Dividend goes up a penny (5% from last quarter) and price ends up a penny higher than prior close.
Just gotta wait it out.
It's 90% of taxable income, not net income. Quarterly financials don't give a clue about taxable income. Plus, the first three dividends of 2014 can be considered distributions of 2013 taxable income. There will be no pressure to distribute by the taxable income rule.
If there is going to be a special dividend with respect to 2013 it will be announced in Feb, imo, maybe about 5 cents. Such a dividend would not shock me because it's more conservative than getting the market expecting 2 cents per quarter increase which goes on until a preannouncement of a change in policy.
I think Hamo is thinking about doing something with the dividend to wake up this stultified market, but have not settled on anything in my mind. An alternative is to go to 25 cents in Feb and announce that future increases would be made annually (thus getting off the penny per quarter horse).
Any surprise over penny per quarter is just fine with me since I just bought another 3,093 shares (cause that's all the cash I had in an IRA).
I'm neither. I'm a number cruncher, reading tea leaves via extrapolation. I cannot reasonably estimate how much capital will be raised for the private reits in 2014 but I can reasonably estimate how much more cad will be generated by new loans, net lease properties, the manufactured housing communities and the private equity deals disclosed to date.
As of now there are about 250 million shares/units outstanding, so each penny per share is about 2.5 million.
Thus, the margin of error on management fees of 40 or 50 million is 4 cents, not a big deal when estimating 1.40 to 1.60 cad for 2014, which I expect will be reasonably extrapolated from tomorrows estimated 2013 cad.
I fully expect a 2014 (calendar) minimum dividend of 94 cents, which is nothing but a continuation of a penny per quarter . A 75% payout ratio requires 1.253 cad. A 70% payout requires 1.343. I think we are already there for 2014. We'll all know a lot more tomorrow.
Nobody has been more critical of NRF's gaap accounting than I, especially for the vies. But it is much harder to fudge cash, which in my book is king. Yeah, Hamo is front loaded on the PE deals, but I'll worry about that in about 4 years when management fees are a much bigger piece of the pie.
Maybe the shorts just don't believe the growth or transformation is real. I don't know what is driving them.
I do know the 21 cents they are about to pay is real and I doubt they are going to get anything but hurt from 3Q earnings. I'm standing hard until I see the growth stopping.
that the shorts ain't gunna get their wish for a big stumble in the earnings report.
Subtract 21 cents from any purchase price today thru next Tuesday because you are buying 21 cents worth of dividend. Ultra technical people will subtract 20 cents, and, for taxable accounts, will factor in the tax effect of buying a taxable dividend vs buying a lower tax basis on the ex date. Of course a today buy is before earnings are known. That goes away tomorrow morning before the open.
So a buy now at say, 9.42 is really 9.22 plus dividend. So, 94 cents in 2014 if penny per quarter continues for another year means well over 10% yield from a growing company whose 2014 cad will be about 70% from equity reit assets and management fees. Hamo must be busting a gut with frustration.
Means shorts only have 3 trading days to cover after earnings are announced. I hope Hamo hits a home run on estimated 2013 cad. Shorts have won the week so far. We'll see what Friday morning brings.
So, before today's press release, the last announced dividend of 20 cents when annualized = 80 cents.
NRF closed today at 9.33. So, .80/9.33 = 8.5745% yield.
Now, the last announced dividend is 21 which annualizes to 84. Demanding exactly the same yield, .84 / 8.5745% = 9.796 price. Some rationality in this nutso market will give kenpally his 9.77 flip on today's 9.27 buy
tomorrow at the open. But the aftermarket ask is now 9.53.
The above gives no premium to the fact that the dividend has been increased 9 quarters in a row. It also gives no premium to the fact that 78 cents paid in 2013 is only 73.4% of the August midpoint estimate of 1.06 2013 cad.
It also gives no consideration to the fact that about 60% of 2013 cad will come from equity reit assets and annuity management fees. Any 8th grader with some effort in extrapolation can surmise this percentage will be about 70% (or higher given recent new investment ratios) for 2014.
When the market is this stupid, I'll just wait until it gets pounded into its collective head.
I got the important parts. The important elements are 21 cents paid on 2/15. Hamo is so consistent that once you know the earnings date it is pretty easy to guess the dividend details. Since 11/11 is a bank holiday, real record date is 11/8. With the 8th as record, correct ex date is the 6th, which was stated in press release.
This also is the 7th quarter in a row that I have predicted the dividend amount way in advance.
Unless 2013 cad per share is shockingly north of 1.10, without some kind of advance warning that penny per quarter will end, I expect it to continue throughout 2014......22+23+24+25 = 94 in calendar 2014.
Well, that call went the wrong way so far. Don't know what the market expects from the fed. No taper now and the market reacts like it was taper tomorrow. I don't do well on macro stuff. Not worried about nrf buys because I know sooner or later fundamental growth will win. I'll stick to micro work.
10-yr down 4 basis points and reits still under pressure. Methinks it is chicken over fed statement. If hint of taper soon, reits get creamed. If none or hint at mid 2014, big pop on reits.
Anyway, I just bought another 5,000 at 9.38. Downside limited, imo, because I know 21 cents coming after close and good growth report fri morning. If wrong, I collect at least 94 cents in 2014, which is more than 10% of 9.38. Fine with me as long as Fidelity loans to me at 1.77%, which I expect will continue for another two years or so.
3 days of funk on reits fueled by agnc atrocity. When it ain't your company suffering in the earnings and dividend department, ya gotta take advantage of the broad brush of computer programs throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
He certainly did. It was a very good quarter operationally. Occupancy up nicely, developed lots added, rentals up sales up, noi up......all real good comparing 3Q this year to 3Q last year, even on a per share basis reflecting the addition of northern rv communities.
However, ytd on a per share basis is no whoop-dee-doo.....2.44 vs 2.39.....4Q guidance of .75-.79 when last year 4Q was .80. Annual guidance of 3.19- 3.23 (upper est lowered from 2Q) vs 3.19 last year. Bigger numbers but more shares.
Looks like all we "old" shareholders got out of the growth and stock issuances is a more conservative balance sheet.
Shiffman's response to "when dividend increase" question at CC was MUCH more a hint of increase soon than responses to the same question in all the CCs I've listened to.
Also, Morgan litigation settled in September allowing fix-up capex to proceed, which should increase occupancy for 2014. Also, 2014 should show a bigger impact of the synergies of having northern and southern rv parks.
We can all snooze until the next report as the annuity is more than safe.
Stink of agnc and arr sticking to other reits, especially those with mortgage reit attributed to them, even if they do not do agencies, like nrf. AGNC and ARR results may give a strong hint about NLY, but they mean absolutely nothing to NRF results.
An irrational decrease in a given stock's price is OK with me. I just buy to flip or hold, depending on the case.