Amendment 4 of the registration statement filed this morning.
As of 4/16, 84.8 million in the door vs 82.3 as of 4/11......2.5 million in 5 days (3 business days) for 500 per day on a calendar basis and 833 per business day. This period is too short, imo, for a meaningful per day.
So, 84.8 thru 4/16 vs 62.5 thru 3/7 per sup 13......22.3 million in 40 days, a dismal 557.5 thousand per day, which annualizes to 203.5 million per year. At this rate it will take 7.37 years to collect 1.5 billion.
With a 2014 budget of 800 million and 150 million collected in 1Q (including Healthcare), that leaves 650 million to be collected in 3 quarters, an average of 216.7 million per Q. This means very little to nrf cad. It also doesn't mean too much to nsam cad on a per share basis. It does, however, affect nsam's rate of growth which will be a separate topic I will post on after the next set of presentation materials which I hope is in May.
Glad to see the buyers win a zig zag day, especially after the first smackdown to well under 15, then again under 15 after a strong rebound from the first smackdown.
Selloffs today appeared to me as particularly sharp, even when later ones were not too deep. I count 7 sharp selloffs including the first big one. BUT.....and this is the important part.......buyers came back again and again to close comfortably over 15.
I still don't think momo is solidly on the upside but I do conclude the downward momo has ended, at least for now. I suppose it's the flipper in me that makes me care. It's ironic that none of the selloff had anything to do with nrf fundamentals. It was all nrf blowing in the winds of a nutso, computer driven market which is meaningless to a long term investor (not trader) who doesn't get scared into selling.
Since market is closed tomorrow, it's gin tonight.
Post-effective amendment 8 to Healthcare's registration statement was filed this morning.
As of 4/15, 229.5 million in the door vs 224.0 thru 4/10 in supplement 21, or 5.5 million in 5 days...1.1 mill per day.
So, 229.5 thru 4/15 vs 201.3 thru 3/21 in sup 20........28.2 million in 25 days, an average of 1.128 million per day.
Still need a faster per day to hit 800 million for the year from this and Income 2.
15.02 to 14.87 in 9 minutes. Shorts, a dumper or both?
A close at or over 15 will reveal buyer strength. Below 15 = still working to regain upward momentum.
Yesterday was encouraging crossing 15 (after a battle) and holding it. BUT, last 10 minutes was 98% selling to the bid which fortunately was pretty deep.
NAW, it was only a dinner trade. I have no flip lots of scco.....just the old and cold core position which has a weighted average cost (before the roc dividend) of a hair over 11.01. Picking a long term lot would cost me a helluva lot more in taxes than selling the same-day buy lot.
It's easy at Fidelity. My accounts are set to sell the shares with the highest cost first. I can override the default and specify lots but the default is HIFO.
It's a blessing to pay top school tuitions for your kids or grandkids because you are helping working producers. It's also a blessing to be able to pay them.
Help the makers instead of enabling the takers. This country needs it.
Another tidbit from the registration statement is the disclosures about expected trading just before the spin.
As I posted earlier, NSAM will begin trading on a "when issued basis" on or shortly before the record date. The symbol will probably be "NSAM-wi". The first business morning after the spin, wi disappears and nsam trades normally.
At about the same time, NRF will trade in two ways.....with and without the right to receive the spin shares. NRF will trade "regular way", meaning the spin shares go with that trade. If you sell nrf regular way, you also sell the right to receive the spin shares. Vice-versa for a regular way buy.....you also get the spin shares.
NRF will also trade on an ex-spin basis.....probably with the symbol NRF-x or NRF-ex. The purchase or sale of ex shares will NOT participate in the spinout. These shares will indicate what nrf will trade at after the spin. Of course, the day after the spin only NRF will be traded.
Before the spin all can get an idea of what the post spin combined value will be by adding the prices of nrf-ex and nsam-wi. The sum of the two should be very close to the price of nrf regular way. Of course the computer boys will be trading the arbitrage between the sum of the two and regular way.
I realize this post may be too early for some readers who do not have the mental capacity to remember it for two months.
Paid attention today, so wasn't too slow. In at 14.4215 and just out at 14.6282 for another Christmas fund grand in less than 3 hours......1.43%.
We did the "years to complete" stuff with Income 1 when it was in the early stages. Result was, from fading memory, 10 to 12 years. Collections per day grew faster as the total assets in the fund grew. Early last year it was, "Better hurry up because it will close soon" and over 500 million was collected in 6 months.
They estimated 800 million for 2014 (vs 693 million for 2013) and got 150 million in 1Q vs 137 for all of 2013.
Suppose they raise the collections by 50 million per quarter. Then 150+200+250+300 = 900. I think they will hit the 800 target, not counting rxr-nsam offering.
As to stock price, NRF has been blowing in the macro market wind lately......not trading on its own fundamentals.
This will change when the market in nrf refocuses on fundamental growth. Ignoring the reverse split, I still expect 17 before the spin and a combined price of between 20 and 25 by end of year. Yeah, that's a wide range for year-end, but the wildcard is the multiple put on nsam. Just look at AAMC then drool for half of that lunacy.
Been a long time since I bought scco for a flip or dinner trade. Could not resist below 29. Copper down 2% on china fart, fcx down less than 2% and scco down over 4%. Overdone.
An amended registration statement for NSAM was filed with the sec today. This means the first round of talks with the sec is finished and the info was updated and amended to address sec staff comments. This amended registration statement may be declared effective in a month or so OR there may be another round of staff comments resulting in another tweaking. When the sec staff signs off, nrf will know declaration of effectiveness will be had. Then they pick a date, which I still expect will be 6/30 although 5/31 would not surprise me if this is the final submission.
Healthcare and Income 2 raised 150 million in 1Q. Just subtract 12/31/13 disclosed amounts from 3/31/14 disclosed amounts.
RXR-NRF (actually nsam) nontraded reit expected to be launched in 3Q after sec declares effective. That's nice if it happens because the ball should be rolling before 1/1/15 thus providing a revenue and profit boost to nsam for 2015.
Was doing something else when 300k share dump dropped price to 14.36, so did not see the rebound for a dinner trade.
10 o'clock smackdown started early and was good for 12 cents in 12 minutes. 1 o'clock smackdown started late but was strong capped by 300k dump.
My take = too shallow on the bid. Not enough buyers.
Just gotta wait for news I guess. Don't know if closing on healthcare deal will happen before earnings which I expect on 5/2. I doubt it. Early to mid May more likely, imo. Not a problem. I have the will and the means to wait.
My crystal ball is telling me earnings will be announced Friday, May 2, before the open.
Dividend of 25 cents will be announced after the close on Wed, April 30.
Dividend will be paid Fri, May 16 with an ex date of Thurs, May 8. Ball is kinda cloudy on ex date. Could be 6th or 7th also.
Ahhh, the late Friday filings with bad news (or an admission of not doing well), supplement 21 extended the offering period for a year, and extended their dividend support agreement. Obviously, very slow launch and slow collections now admitted by extension. May be one reason for Flaherty....kick some #$%$.
As of 4/10, 224.0 collected vs 201.3 at 3/21 from sup 19, 22.7 million in 20 days = 1.135 million per day, down from 1.641 million in sup 19. Close but no cigar. This pace ain't gunna collect 800 million in 2014 without a big increase in collection rate.