For what it cost him, he could have used a $1,000 professional over 1,000 times. Hmmmm, once a week at $1,000 per pop (so-to-speak) for about 20 years would have left him with more money than he now has.
In response to some comments. The guy with a masters degree was in his early 40s, just beginning his peak productivity, earning and saving years. His internet "friend", a married high school dropout, about 25, with 2 kids. When the guy first told me of his problem, the first words out of my mouth were shouted: "HOW STUPID CAN YOU BE???" My next words were about how expensive that warm, wet experience was going to be.
This true story gets stranger. The #$%$ refused $25 grand to get a paid-for abortion. While she had not finished high school, she was pretty good at multiplication. $450 per week was about what she and her husband, also a drop-out, were earning. Her husband did not divorce her or kick her out of the house.
The child support for the "mistake child" was their meal ticket for 18 years (my cynical opinion).
Did the guy think it was worth it? I never saw him do it, but I think he pounded his forehead onto the desk every time he signed a check, shouting, "STUPID, STUPID, STUPID". You cannot un-ring a bell.
SCCO produces all the copper they can and sell all they produce. In addition, a very high percentage (80 to 90 if I remember correctly) is sold to regular customers under annual or longer term contracts. In short, scco does not have the capacity to serve Asarco customers.
I think a more interesting item you reported on earlier is Grupo's demand that a buyer of Asarco does not have to assume the union contract.
"As of December 2, 2013, we received and accepted subscriptions in our offering for 1.4 million shares, or $13.3 million, including 0.2 million shares, or $2.0 million, sold to an affiliate of NorthStar Realty Finance Corp., or our sponsor..."
As of 11/14 it was 8.7 million. Ball is rolling. I expect it will pick up speed a it gets bigger.
That's one thing I cannot afford.
I know a guy who "met" a lady he met online. He flew from RI to NC for the "meeting" and flew back the next day. Told his wife it was a business trip for a client meeting, which was perfectly plausible, given his job.
Well, his "meeting" produced a child......paternity proven with DNA......which resulted in $450 per week in non-deductible child support for 18 years.....421,200 in total. Meanwhile, the divorce back home cost him 55% of the marital assets, 7 years worth of 1,000 per week of deductible alimony, 8 years of $600 per week of non-deductible child support and $200,000 for one college education.
This guy was making between 250k and 300 per year. His "meeting" cost him all the money he could have been saving for retirement and then some.
When he told me at the beginning of his saga of his "problem" I told him, "This will be the most expensive (rhymes with puck) you will ever have." He could have retired wealthy. He won't.
"I got another 5,000 at 9.69 on the second selldown. Was thinking about a dinner trade........"
Out at 9.84 for 1.51% in 2 days......enough for 3 dinners out. Wife will love it.
As to daily smackdowns and rises, my advice is to ignore it or trade for pennies. On 5,000 shares 4 cents = dinner out.
199k out of 385k......51.7% short. Yesterday was about 50%. Shorts still shoveling sand to keep a lid on it.
Macro environment for reits has been a big help.
Some day, both will change. Collect your dividends while eventually passing "GO". There WILL be a press release on closing NYC deal because it opens other doors to nrf. Can tell from cc and today's presentation they are excited about this deal. We will hear about it as soon as we can.
Tylis comment was more about how happy they are with the deals closed before rates went up. You are right. Same cap rate and more expensive debt = less profit on the leverage. No mention of pending deals mentioned in cc. Yup, they may take 13% on leveraged equity instead of 14%. I'd rather have 14 than 13 but 13 is still nicely accretive. As to payout, 75% x 13% = 9.75% which is more than we are now getting.
I am convinced that Hamo simply will not do a deal which is not accretive to his units which are the equivalent of common stock. Yes, Hamo sucks excessive compensation and bonuses, but he and his family are the largest individual shareholder. I trust Hamo to take care of Hamo which takes care of me.
Yup, in the beginning depreciation exceeds principal payback. Debt financed depreciation = tax shelter. Eventually, principal payback exceeds depreciation meaning taxable income is higher than cash flow.
One way to delay the bad situation is to keep growing....keep buying new properties.
Hold the reduced basis stock until death. Then the problem goes away, but so do you.
Maybe not 100% this year........depreciation much higher than 2012 and increased preferred dividends carry out taxable income first. Unknown wildcard = how much COD income from 2009 and 2010 gets included in 2013 taxable.
In answer to audience question: Do not like stock price. Yield is higher than peers paying out 100% when nrf paying out 75%. If it doesn't change, will evaluate spinoff.
Just a lot more color than 11/1 cc. Growth still on track, especially in management fees and private equity deals.
Not a syllable in whole presentation which I consider negative. Nothing makes me even consider lightening up on a WAY overweight position. Will just wait for historical numbers to speak for themselves, quarter after quarter.
Fireside chat = moderator asks planted questions. Was a great platform for Tylis to paint a very positive picture. Got more specifics than 11/1 cc.
Private equity: Expect to collect 800 million to 1 billion in 2014 with Healthcare and Income 2....does not include nontraded reits to be launched in partnership with pending NYC company deal.
NYC company = private real estate company which owns real estate and which manages real estate funds.
300 million investment is more debt than equity, expected to close before end of year. After close will launch (with NYC company as fee sharing partner) several new products including multi billion nontraded reits.
One reason name not released yet is NYC co wants to notify its investors of NRF buying an equity piece.
Private Equity deals: Expect significant p/e business in 2014. Tutes are calling NRF to discuss selling like 2 done deals or joining in investing in NRF structured deals. Moderator asked about proposed FINRA/SEC regulations on nontraded reits. Tylis: fine with NRF......complaints about other deals = lack of disclosure. NRF discloses like a public company so actually welcomes more disclosure regs. Moderator asked what they can do about "opaqueness" of p/e cash flows. NRF: we disclose all we can in the supplemental schedules included in quarterlies and sec filings. Realizations in 2 done deals have been higher than book.
NRF broker dealer has capacity to handle 4 offerings at same time.
Manufactured housing: Low risk, stable cash flow is reason. Cheap fixed rate debt....Tylis disclosed that their approx. 4% debt is assumable in a sale. Cap rates for mfg hsg about the same but debt rate 100 basis points higher than early 2013, so very pleased with what they have and are looking for more.
Question from audience. Capacity for more leverage (vs equity offering)? A = yes, nrf has capacity for more leverage. Translation: Can grow more before issuing more equity.
Shorts still at it. 9 cents in about 4 minutes. 9.75 to 9.66. Gotta protect the price points. Try to keep the lid on.
It works short term as nrf chart watchers can see on a daily basis. Rise up to SMACK, rise up to second smack and so on.
Trade for pennies or ignore it. Next dividend = 22 cents.
Hey, it hit 18.26 last week. You cudda taken your 3% in a week if you bought on the offering. I can't predict a nutso macro market. I'll buy just about any equity reit at more than 2% below the offering price on launch day
I bought 2,000 at 17.65 on the offering and did not sell last week It goes ex 12.5 cents on 12/12, which annualizes to 8.57%, most of which is tax deferred roc. Yield is exactly 8% when price is 18.75. I'll dump this lot at 18.76 then wait for the next offering.
I got another 5,000 at 9.69 on the second selldown. Was thinking about a dinner trade but have all week for that plus possible bounce on tomorrow's presentation. At worst, nothing new comes out of tomorrow if they only stick to the 11/1 script. If something new is added or alluded to, it certainly will not be bad news.
Big news, ie closing pending 11/1 deals, will lead to press release probably after close today but it could come just before the presentation tomorrow morning. If none, we hear the same thing we saw in the 11/1 slides.
Too bad shortvolume does not report short by hour. No question in my mind the smackdown shortly after the open was a short attack. It did shake the tree, which is the purpose besides maximum down on fewest shares.
Low volume on the bid = perfect environment for a smackdown. Shorts got it early this morning.
Shorts dug their hole deeper and shook out some weak hands. Macro environment for reits stinks, helping the short term effect. Nevertheless, I expect creep up later toward the close.
I'll never forget my father's words when he was teaching me how to shoot with a .22 rifle when I was 5 or 6:
"NEVER point a gun at someone unless you intend to shoot them and NEVER shoot at someone unless you intend to kill them". That's my motto with firearms.
I remember about 30 years ago a local cop had to shoot a drunk with a knife in a bar room. Drunk charged at the cop. Cop had to shoot him 5 times with a .357 magnum before the drunk went down. All shots hit the drunk's chest. If I ever have to shoot someone, I want to stop forward progress with the first shot and I don't want the intruder to ever get up. If he runs away upon hearing the "clack-clack", all the better. The best use of a firearm is to create a situation where it doesn't have to be used.
Also have 00 buck for aggressive coyotes in the neighborhood. If I were hunting to kill coyotes, I would use the M4 with hollow points. Can't do that in this town. But RI law allows a homeowner to kill a threatening animal on his own property. If that were to happen, the shot would probably be about 100 feet. M4 would do, but 00 buck would turn a coyote into a ball of fur and blood.
BTW, we had a sitting governor shoot a rabid skunk on his property with a 12 gauge. Local police charged him with discharging a firearm in a confined area, a misdemeanor. Governor beat the rap with the threatening animal law.
Enough of this. You have more guns than I do.
Hey, dingdong, when you have contributed as much factual data and analysis to this board as I have, you will have standing to object to my posts and I would probably honor your request out of respect.
Until then, shove it.
NRF up 1.23% from last Friday's close, an impressive performance relative to other equity reits and despite that massive short percentage Wednesday.
For the same week:
VNQ (equity reit index) down 1.00%
SUI (pure mfg hsg) down 1.26%
HCN (healthcare properties) down 3.02%
SNH (senior hsg) down 1.57%
So count your blessings being long NRF. Despite a 2 cent decline today on peanut gallery volume, the momo is still on the upside, imo.
Here's hoping for material news before the 12/3 presentation which was billed as a "fireside chat". I guess that's where a moderator asks questions during the presentation. We'll soon find out. Shorts desperately need a monster negative. It ain't coming, imo, certainly not on 12/3.
Still a few hours to go before gin time.
I figured XM 855 would draw you out.
I have never fired the Bushmaster M4 I bought as an investment and in defiance of the socialist pig's proposal to ban them, but grandfathering existing weapons. His proposal to ban certain ammo, including XM855, did not have a grandfather for existing rounds. Had it been enacted, simple possession would be a felony, which is not my style. Thus, I passed on a bulk hoard. Nevertheless, I have 2 clips of green tips and 4 clips of 55 grain hollow point, just in case.
My home defense unit is a loaded (but none in chamber) 12-gauge "police" pump, less than 2 seconds from the master bed. The load is 3 inch 00 buck. If I ever have to use it I won't care about the walls and carpeting, but I don't have to worry about pellets going through my walls, and then through my neighbors' walls. Wife has hollow points (but none in chamber) in her 9mm pistol in the nightstand on her side of the bed. Neither weapon will "accidentally" fire. A round must first be moved to the chamber.
In case you are wondering, we unload all firearms and hide the ammo whenever the grandkids are coming or we are having a lengthy gathering with booze being served.