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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

dar200 241 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 4:47 PM Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Patience on nsam

    by dar200 Nov 7, 2014 10:51 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 7, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    Shudda woudda coudda. You had plenty of opportunities under 17 about 3 weeks ago when I was pounding the table about the earnings pop to come. LOD hit 16.01 on one of those days. Lots of chances in low 16s.

    No excuses for regular readers as you knew or should have known that nontraded fundraising was way ahead of budget and part of the fees from griffin shares and current offering would hit this year's cad. When you know the company ya gotta go with your gut when the nutso market is going bonkers.

    Waiting to see it in the rear view mirror is safer, but expensive. It's going to be more expensive to buy with the lemmings when they get spoonfed.

  • Reply to

    Patience on nsam

    by dar200 Nov 7, 2014 10:51 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 7, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Well, I was a day ahead of DB with the earnings info and a month ahead of them predicting an earnings pop in price. Let's hope twitter buzz is correct.

  • The discount drip price is 95% of the average of the daily highs and lows for the 5 trading dates ending the day before the pay date.

    This quarter's calculation period begins today, 11/7 and ends with 11/13, the day before the pay date.

    I will post the result after the market closes on 11/13.

  • Your opening question indicates you flunked out of Investment Kindergarten 101 if you took the course. Such a dismal lack of elementary investment knowledge means you are a danger to your financial situation by investing in stocks such as NRF.

    The tone of the responses is meant as a kick to your butt to get yourself some investment knowledge before a very unforgiving market gobbles you up. Plus, we taxpayers don't want to support you with welfare in retirement. Just handing you the answer teaches you nothing. Thus, we call it "tough love".

    Learn the relationship between the ex date and the record date and you won't have to ask such a revealing question again. In addition, you will learn something about investing in stocks.

  • The fast understanders moved yesterday, but only 5.4 million shares traded. The bulk of the market is soooo slow, plus a bunch of tutes wait for some analyst to publish a report with a recommendation.

    It will take some time for the import of yesterday's information to sink in, especially the compounding effect of using incredible cash flow (percentage-wise) to make accretive investments because cad increases from the new investments without increasing the number of shares outstanding.

    Just be patient. NSAM will be 25 when the growth for 2015 becomes generally known, imo. That may take until the late Feb presentation materials with a full-blown estimate of 2015 cad. Even if it does, 20 to 25 in 3 to 4 months is a 25% gain. Maybe enough info will be available in next weeks presentation materials, but I doubt an explicit 2015 estimated cad will be presented.

    My back of the envelope calculations don't have to be precise. I know it will be over 1.00. I think about 1.06 without new growth initiatives being announced. 1.15 to 1.20 would not surprise me with new growth initiatives.

    Just be patient. It's just a matter of time which will not exceed 4 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • dar200 dar200 Nov 7, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    On the SCCO board they are called divididiots. I flag 'em and another poster keeps a list.

    I have done a scientific study of divididiot behavior. They come out of the woodwork and swarm like insects once every 3 months, right around ex time to record time, since they don't know the difference. While the size of some insect swarms increases with temperature, divididiot swarm size increases with yield percentage.

    Condo, if you read this, start a list for NRF.

  • Reply to

    There i removed

    by lipkalr Nov 6, 2014 9:47 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 6, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    This is the one which upsets me the most because you are ducking the responsibility for posting a purported fact which is not true. I won't move on until you admit what you did. Diversion does not work with me.

    If I had you on a witness stand I would rub your face into the floor until the tip of your nose was flush with your cheekbones. You can't duck away from it with me. You ain't the socialist pig who thinks the elections did not reflect on him. Man-up. Admit you published a falsehood.

  • Reply to

    Mr Dar

    by lipkalr Nov 6, 2014 4:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 6, 2014 8:57 PM Flag

    And when did I back off saying Hamo wanted a lower yield like 6 to 7%? The math is simple: 1.60 / 7% = 22.857. 1.60/ 6% = 26.667. So what? I don't care what your education level is. Some uneducated people are very smart and some highly educated people are as ignorant as hell.

    I care about what you said as if it were a fact: "I am just curious as to why your backing off any targets currently ...." I want to know which targets I have backed off of. I want you to cite specifics or admit your erroneous presumption (and publication) of an assertion of fact which is not correct.

    This is the polite response. I am not your personal financial adviser. Stop asking me to be it. Stop saying I walk on water. I don't. I'm not your wife. I'm not your friend. I have no responsibility for your financial decisions no matter how hard you want to rely upon my postings. Take my postings for whatever they may be worth. I do not have a crystal ball. I don't have a clue as to what the price of nrf will be at the end of 2015. That does NOT constitute backing off any targets I have published here. I resent that assertion, as may be evident.

  • Reply to

    Mr Dar

    by lipkalr Nov 6, 2014 4:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 6, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Which targets am I backing off from? Be specific. Cite the post so I can read it.

    And it's "you're" not "your" in the context you stated.

  • From Oct 29 post:

    "NSAM rightfully hurt by WSJ article, but we know than nsam's fundraising is way ahead of budget. Yeah, the info is public for those who take the time to track it promptly, but 98% of the market does not know how much nsam raised in 3 Q because they are too slow and lazy. The nsam pop next week just got bigger. The brave will buy because of the info learned here."

    This is what you get by reading sec filings promptly.......ahead of the market. The little guy CAN do it by being faster than the market. Study immediately, gather new facts, connect the dots and draw reasonable inferences.
    It CAN be done. NSAM proves it.

  • Reply to

    Mr Dar

    by lipkalr Nov 6, 2014 4:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 6, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Don't know and don't really care because I pay my bills with dividends, not the price of stock. I am confident the minimum 2015 dividend will be at least 1.60 per share though I think it will be 1.66.

  • Don't sell nsam today. I can't see how the market can pay less than 25 times cad once it sees nsam's growth rate. I see minimum cad per share for 2015 at 1.00, which happens to be 51% higher than the opening 66 cent midpoint.

    First, look at after tax cad as a percentage of revenue. You have to net commissions paid against commission revenue because the house is merely a pass-thru for almost all of the commissions. So, 27.149 commission income - 25.691 commission expense = 1.458 net commission revenue for nsam.

    So, revenue = 56.521 mgt fees, 1.458 net commissions and .318 other = 58.297 total revenue.
    After tax cad = 36.032 million. Thus, cad = 61.8% of total revenue. That is a HUGE percentage, the definition of cash cow. Since base overhead is a fixed cost already in place, incremental cad from incremental revenue will be a bigger percentage of incremental revenue, say 70% to be conservative. (I will be able to calculate actual with next report.)

    So, 19 cents annualized = 76 cents. NRF base fee run rate now 182 million from 152 million in 3Q....30 million increase x 70% cad rate = 21 million cad / 200 million shares = 10.5 cent increase. This is with current equity deals. It does not include 2015 equity raises not yet announced.

    They told us 10 cent increment from minority interests being purchased.

    Nontraded reit fees will add at least another dime.

    So, 76 + 10.5 + 10.0 + 10.0 = 106.5. I suspect I am low. How can the market not pay at least 25 times cad for this kind of growth? Beats the hell outta me, so I'll sit and wait for them to figure it out.

  • I like the fundraising format in nsam's earnings release. It makes watching prospectus supplements less urgent, but it's still nice to know a ballpark before the info is spoonfed to the market.

    One thing the Healthcare and Income 2 supplements do not disclose is dripping at Income 1 which is 34.5 million ytd. It is new equity and assets which generates new management fees.

    This kind of disclosure also allows more macro calculations over longer periods. For example, 291 million raised in 3Q / 92 days = 3.163 million average per day. 111.9 million raised in Oct (771.1 thru 10/31 - 659.2 thru 9/30) /31 days = 3.610 million per day. So, October's average per day is 14.1% ahead of the 3Q average.

    3.6 million per day (oct ave) for the remaining 61 days = 219.6 million raised in nov & dec which when added to
    771.1 thru 10/31 makes 990.7 million for the year vs prior budget of 800 million.

    HOWEVER, the shareholders of Griffin are expected to reinvest a large portion of at least the after-tax cash proceeds into nontraded reits. NSAM will get a share of that either directly via Healthcare or Income 2 or indirectly via 47% of American Healthcare Investors (AHI) about to be purchased. AHI co-sponsors the latest griffin offering and gets 75% of the fees therefrom. So, imo, nsam stands to get a surge in asset fees from the reinvestment of the griffin closing, which is expected in the first week of December. I have no idea how much this may be but I do know it is a positive "bump" over "regular" fundraising.

  • dar200 by dar200 Nov 6, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Not only was there no announcement of a spinoff, the talk about it in response to a question was very subdued.
    I'm surprised. I expected Hamo to be pounding the table about yield too high for a reit with what will be 80% equity reit assets. I expected Hamo to bring it up in opening remarks. He didn't. The response to the question was very subdued (to me).

    I'm perplexed. I thought he would say anything legal to pump the price. He certainly didn't and neither did Tylis.
    Tylis was evasive (IMO) when asked to put numbers on "well in excess of" , referring to 1.68 upper number of estimated annualized cad. If they are going to put it into next week's presentation materials, why not speak to it today? Maybe they have not finished crunching their numbers or waiting for expected confirmation of closing dates.

    IMO, the overall tone of the nrf cc was kinda flat. Yeah, Europe deals (vague), pending deals with expected percentage yield on leveraged equity....none of this translated into cad per share at cc.

    I just didn't feel fire in the belly enthusiasm in the words or the tone at nrf cc. Much more at nsam, but market needs to be spoonfed numbers and they did not dish out the food today. Maybe next week with new presentation slides. They gotta start putting "expected" numbers into the estimate instead of footnoting add-ons if certaings happen.

    Obviously market likes nsam prospects. I expect they will like them even better when nsam puts some flesh on the bones we got today.

  • Reply to

    press release showing "loss"

    by ruswise Nov 6, 2014 10:52 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 6, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    They also had 44 million of transaction costs in 3Q. GAAP loss is meaningless number, but lemmings still move on it.

  • If you like almost 9% tax deferred yield, don't sell your core nrf holdings. Dividend looks more than safe.

    If you like share price growth, don't sell core nsam. Market doesn't have a clue, yet, of 2015 cad per share. My non-calculated guestimate at this point (no number crunching) is around 1.00 cad per share.

    They estimate 95.5 million of management co minority interests will add 10 cents per share. Hmmmm
    95.5 million / 200 million 2015 shares = 48 cents per share invested. 10/48 = 20.8% after tax cad return on investment.

    Market has to settle in on a growth rate. Then multiple will increase substantially.

    I especially would not sell nsam today. I'd wait for next week's presentation materials to spoonfeed a lazy, slow marketplace. It will be over 20 in a very short time, imo.

  • Buyback is dead for a while. Don't expect much, if any, dividend increase. NSAM to use cash to grow.

    Start with 150 million of equity. Earn 36 million of after tax cad out of the box in first stand-alone quarter = 24% of equity = 96% annualized cad return on equity.

    Liquidity: Fees from related parties are paid within one month of being earned. This means nrf paid Sep fees before 10/31. So, 105 of cash + 78 accounts receivable - 34 accounts payable - 19 dividend = 130 million of free cash.

    Going to spend 95 million buying 47% and 45% of two asset management companies. I predict 100% ownership by the end of 2015.

    As equity grows and return on market acquisitions is closer to 20% range, weighted average annualized cad return on equity percentage will decrease, but when you start with 96%, you have a long time to go with spectacular percentages.

    The insiders are stealing huge numbers of compensation shares, so that will dilute cad per share for paying shareholders. My general impression (which will take a year or so to refine with historical analysis) is than nsam price will generally grow as a function of cad return on equity. BUT, the market is lazy, slow and sometimes dumb. It's gunna take a while for the market to figure out just what a cash cow nsam is.

  • Great cad for nsam, very good for nrf.

    NSAM an unbelievable cash cow.

    No rxr, no spinoff, no nsam forward sales agreement.......all from a quick skim.

  • Reply to

    Flipping for the dividend

    by dar200 Nov 5, 2014 11:15 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 6, 2014 6:25 AM Flag

    That was in opening post.....just a transposition among friends.....brain works faster than fingers.

  • Reply to

    Flipping for the dividend

    by dar200 Nov 5, 2014 11:15 AM
    dar200 dar200 Nov 5, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    I always add a penny to cover commissions and the sec fee. I would not net 40 cents with 8 cents. With 9 cents I'll be closer to 41 cents than 40 cents.

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