57.8% of reported volume short. Probably the cause of the mid-day dip into the red. Not enough though.
Maybe momo is shifting upward into earnings next week. I'm holding all flippers (in both) until at least earnings and probably thru ex-div for nrf. Never say never, as usual. Gimmee the right price and the flippers are gone. Just not likely to get the price without positive news which I expect will come on 11/6.
AI is nowhere near the class of nrf and sui. AI is a flip with a very high yield. I'm still long it in an ira and green without the dividend so in no hurry to sell. BUT, ai is nothing but a money changer. Borrow from peter short to lend to paul long. It's all intangible.....a good business only to the extent of the spread. SUI is all hard assets. NRF is now much more equity reit which I like. In the mortgage business the best you do is the bargain you make. The best you do is have the loan pay off as agreed. It's all downside risk from that starting point. Not so with hard assets.
BTW, Cooperman used to ask questions at the nrf CCs while he had a big position. Hamo always took his call questions. I wanted some questions asked so I called Cooperman. He took my call immediately, listened to my issues, discussed them with me, then framed the questions for my OK. He did not know me from Adam, but listened carefully to the technical things I was telling him. He said, "That's interesting. Thank you for calling me."
Amendment to proxy statement just filed. Shareholders of record on 10/14 to vote on 11/28.
Day after Thanksgiving. Not exactly a busy market day, but that makes no difference. Votes will be cast way in advance.
A Dec 1 closing would not surprise me.
As I did the last time when I posted first a sellout of common, then a sellout of preferred, since I only own common now, I will let this board know AFTER I have sold my last share.
Never say never, but it is very unlikely I will sell my last share of nrf before death. It would take a huge change in nrf's business model, a huge change in the macro environment or a huge reduction in the dividend.
I will not post until the last share is gone because I don't want readers trying to front-run me, I might sell some of either simply because the positions are too big for my portfolio, I might sell some nsam to get higher yielding stocks.....in other words I could partially sell either for reasons other than my opinion as a go-forward investment.
And never forget, everybody's total financial picture is different. What may be totally right for me may be totally wrong for somebody else. Don't make yourself a blind follower. Always make your moves within the scope of your own situation.
NRF up all of .68% this week. The mortgage reit index etf, MORT, (of which nrf is 6.86%) was up 1.25%.
But wait, nrf is supposed to be 75% equity reit and 25% mreit. Equity reit index etfs VNQ was up 3.19% and IYR was up 3.17%.
Hey, Hamo, pay attention. All the ytd total return was pre-spin. Combined price on 7/1 was 36.00. Combined price yesterday was 35.49 plus 50 cents cash div = 35.99. Total return from 7/2 forward is ZIPPO.
Oh yeah, NRF closed at 18.85 on 9/3 before you announced you were shorting 30 million shares of your own company. 17.73 / 18.85 = 94.06%, still down almost 6% even with almost 2 months of dividend accretion.
#$%$POOR performance, imo. Nice job before the spin date. Whadda ya done for me lately?
What we don't know:
How many of the 30 million nrf short have been issued to DB which used them to close their short position.
What DB is doing with their short position without regard to the forward sales contract.
It appears likely to me (with no way of learning the fact) that DB was no longer short all 30 million on 10/10 (trade date for 10/15 settlement). IOW, it seems very unlikely that the rest of the shorts' position was only .8 on that date.
We will certainly learn was was issued as of 9/30. Don't know if NRF will walk this forward to early Nov like it does with so many other metrics.
Just because I think we get one in May does not make it likely. I'll let you know when I see the Feb presentation slides. We've already been told 40 cents is nearly all the cad for 3 and 4Q and that griffin would be neutral. We have more shares out now and another billion of hotels which, if the economy keeps chugging along, should be accretive, but now the blob is bigger so per share becomes a challange.
Remember they have a loan covenant to not pay out more than cad in any rolling 4 quarter period.
I suggest you not go wild on margin for a maybe 2 cents next May.
I have not spent a lot of time on the IB website as I just used their margin rates as leverage on Fidelity. But from a cursory look, it appears their commissions are substantially higher than Fidelity's, Since I trade around 500 times a year, this is a significant offset. I did not see the ability to drip which I must have for my IRAs, and it looked like their cash transfer mechanisms were cumbersome.
While I suggested to Fidelity I might move to IB for lower margin rates, it is not something I would do unless the net savings were huge to me. I'm coming up on 10 years with Fidelity and am very satisfied with the overall experience there.
Then there is inertia. It's a pain to do the paperwork all over again. Plus I want things simple in case I go before my wife and/or the kids as trustees have to take over. All household accounts at Fidelity are consolidated into one monthly statement. I get one 1099 at year end reporting everything (except the MLPs) I need for the tax returns. The only reason I have nothing but NSAM dripping in an IRA at Ameritrade is I like their streamer better than Fidelity's. If I stop trading or if Fidelity gets a better streamer, the AMTD IRA gets transferred to Fidelity. All our liquid assets except the household checking account would then be under one roof.
You obviously have not been reading this board. Margin rates have been discussed here within the last 10 days. Happy hunting.
That's ok. Post all you want. I thought you had seen something I had not. I ain't perfect and am eager to learn from others.
Yahoo estimate for 2015 of 1.91 is average of two guesses....1.51 and 2.30. Wow, that's useful.
2 cents next May unless Hamo can already see slam dunk accretion for the year out of griffin instead of neutral. There will be an increase in 2015 as Hamo wants to keep a streak going. Don't have a feel yet of whether it will be quarterly or annually, but I'm leaning toward annual beginning in May.
Short smackdowns are alive and well. NSAM......18 cents in 20 minutes. IMO, gotta be a short attack because profit-taking numbers are not around.
Don't get scared and sell nsam. Don't sell out of frustration. IMO, the market has not seen nsam 2015 because the market is too lazy and slow to do the work. Hamo hasn't spoonfed on 2015 yet.
Look forward on nontraded reit fundraining. Income 2 will soon be into its stride as it has passed critical mass.
Healthcare would have sold out in 2015 but for the pending follow on offering of another 500 million primary and 200 million for dripping. As the prospectus states and as they did with Income 1, drip authorization can be switched to primary. I can imagine 800 million from Healthcare alone in 2015 plus 600 million from Income 2.
They only get half a fee from rxr deal and I have no feeling how fast that will sell. But, selling 1 billion (out of 2) in 2015 is the equivalent of 500 million full-fee nsam sales. So, 1.9 billion (800+600+500) raised in 2015 for nsam would not surprise me. At 3% of equity, that's 57 million of annualized revenue. IMO, market doesn't have a clue about this.
I know Hamo is grinding his teeth over the current prices of both. I suspect he will pull as many rabbits out of the hat as he can for upcoming earnings and CCs.
Just be patient.
PS; Cudda taken a less-than 3 hours 1.5% this morning on yesterday's flip buy. Not enough relative to what I think we'll get on 11/6. Plus I expect ex date will be 11/12 or thereabouts with 11/21 as the pay date.
Filed about 15 minutes ago.
Collected 602.4 million through 10/21 vs 561.4 thru 10/3 in supplement 11....41.4 in 18 days for 2.300 per day.
The S-11 disclosed 552.2 thru 9/30, so 21 days in Oct = 50.2 million in 21 days for 2.390 per day.
In 95 days from 6/28 thru 9/30, 209.9 was collected for an average of 2.209 per day. Thus, so far in Oct is running 8.2% higher per day than 2Q. IMO, no sweat for 900 million in 2014 without rxr deal.
Also, after nrf completes the griffin merger Healthcare is buying 100 million worth of the equity for cash, about 8.3% (100 million / 1.2 billion = 8.3333%) thru the formation of a new partnership. Sale is at nrf's cost, including acquisition expenses. This takes a little cash pressure off nrf in exchange for at cost ownership. Since nrf is no longer Healthcare's sponsor, I think nrf should have charged a 3% to 5% acquisition fee.
Bought a flip lot just before the close at 17.7015. I consider this buying 30.15 cents worth of accreted dividend (if I hold for 3 weeks) and 17.40 for the stock. So, if I hold, yield is over 9% either way it's calculated. 1.60/17.30 = 9.25% or 1.60/17.7015 = 9.04%.
IMO, stock rollover was caused by shooting in Canada, a terrible event, but not one which should tank the stock market. Naturally, nrf was one of the hardest hit despite equity reit indexes ending approximately flat.
IMO, a typical lemming knee-jerk, the kind I buy.
I'm likely to take 2 to 3% if I get it this week. If I guessed wrong and have to hold, for a whole year I pay Fidelity 1,522 of interest on this lot while I collect 8,000. It's easy to risk a flip with odds like these.
Not knowing what I mean means you need to retake "REITS 101" as many times as you have to until you do know what I mean. That will prepare you to be a more knowledgeable reit investor. It also means you would not have asked the question if you did know what I meant.
Your source has been asleep for a while. It wasn't a press release. It was an 8-K filed with the sec on 10/6.
"On September 30, 2014, NorthStar Real Estate Income II, Inc. (“NorthStar Income II”), through a subsidiary of its operating partnership, originated a $144.0 million senior loan (the “Senior Loan”) secured by a portfolio of 28 commercial properties located in Woodbury, New York (the “Portfolio”). "
Gotta watch out for those third party reporting services. IMO, it's best to go straight to the source document as it is faster and more accurate. Nevertheless, thanks for the effort. Multiple posters bringing facts to the board makes it a better board.
Yup, 64.4% of reported volume sold short today. 571k out of 886k sold short. No surprise to me. Today's pushback just reeked of short attack since the probability of a profit-taking wave seemed low to me.
Confirmation of the shorts did it is actually good news. It looks like the momo has turned and shorts worked like hellbent to keep a lid on it. If correct, there should be much more money on the buy side than the shorts can muster to counterattack.
We'll see how this plays out. I'm in no hurry.