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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

dar200 141 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Got some number crunching to do but first glance = fantastic quarter.

  • Reply to

    Calendar predictions

    by dar200 Jul 28, 2015 3:42 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 28, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    Also off an hour on CC times....they moved earlier to 9:00 am. I expect earnings press release at 8:00 am, thus giving analysts only one hour to digest a flood of numbers. Thus, they cannot be fully prepared to ask hard questions.

    The companies not afraid of number crunching questions are those that release after the close with CC the next morning. Thus an analyst has plenty of time to run numbers, ratios and comparisons ( q to q, linear and y/y). All the preparation to ask embarrassing questions takes time which Hamo is now shortening.

    Two hours is not enough. Watch for release time.

  • Reply to

    Calendar predictions

    by dar200 Jul 28, 2015 3:42 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 28, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    OOPs, off by a day (so far). They broke the Friday mold, maybe because cash shareholders dread Friday night SEC filings, with good reason.

  • Press release after close today announcing earnings to be released on Fri, Aug 7 before open (both). NRF CC at 10 am 8/7 followed by nsam at 11.

    Common dividend announcement after close on Tue, 8/4....40 cents payable on Fri, 8/21 to shareholders of record on 8/17 which means the ex date is 8/13.

    Preferred dividends will be announced this week payable on 8/17.

  • Reply to

    10 Cent Divident

    by shredneyvashnar Jul 26, 2015 6:37 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 27, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    The days of big dividents will come again......after they finish paying for production increase cap ex. In mining, almost all the cap ex must be spent on a given project before the new production begins. When the increased cash flow comes in and little cap ex is needed, THEN the divident gets increased.

    Unfortunately, imo, Grupo will take us out for a peanuts premium shortly before that happens.

  • Reply to

    Could not resist

    by dar200 Jul 23, 2015 11:32 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 25, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    Not a dinner trade because not a same day round trip. I took next-day 2%. Fine with me.....another 1,500 for the Christmas fund.

  • Reply to

    conference call announcement, when?

    by djia8899 Jul 24, 2015 9:33 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 24, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    Obviously, you are on the wrong board.

  • Reply to

    Could not resist

    by dar200 Jul 23, 2015 11:32 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 23, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    Still holding all underwater flip lots. I will consider tax loss selling later in year if I need it and loss is still available, but not now because yield is so high and I expect a pop from NRE spin.

  • Reply to

    Could not resist

    by dar200 Jul 23, 2015 11:32 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 23, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    No because it is so small until 25% kicks in. I doubt 45 cents will be reached or exceeded this quarter due to the drag from the Euro properties. I hope I'm wrong on this.

  • Reply to

    Could not resist

    by dar200 Jul 23, 2015 11:32 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 23, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    Hotels really stunk in 1Q and it was not all bad weather.......read CLDT 4Q '14 earnings press release with estimate of joint venture performance. Then read the same in 1Q '15 earnings press release. It's a fact we get more info on NRF's hotels from CLDT than we get from NRF. Nevertheless, 2Q hotels should be substantially better than 1Q. In addition, Tylis said at a presentation (after he finished his comedy routine) that mfg housing was looking at a 7% increase in NOI.

    However, I expect the per share boost from hotels and mfg housing will be largely or fully offset by the dilutive effect of the 1.1 billion European buy which was April. If that yields 8% on leveraged equity, it's 6.5% after nsam fee which is significantly dilutive on a per share basis.

    They said they were in a hurry to complete NRE spin and the reason is the portfolio is dilutive to cad per share.
    They announced the spin in Feb. They closed the big deal in early April. They should have filed the registration statement at the end of April as they had all the info that's in it. But no, stumblebum Lieberman didn't get it filed until July 2. He should be fired, not lavished with robber shares.

  • Just bought 5,000 @ 15.3415 including commission. Hoping for a dinner trade. If not, we are less than 3 weeks away from ex 40 cent div....thus about 31 cents of dividend is already accreted. I bought 31 cents worth of dividend and paid a little better than 15.01 for the stock. 1.60 / 15.0115 = 10.658% yield.

    I believe Hamo will react to the well-deserved beating this stock has taken since they filed the proxy statements revealing obscenely excessive compensation. I can wait while collecting 10.658%.

  • Reply to

    Dar 54, where are you?

    by mattmateuchi Jul 22, 2015 3:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 22, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    No, but ONLY because I am loaded to the gills with both. NSAM is a tough wait because the yield is so low.
    Just sitting on NRF is no problem at all with its yield. I have the ability and will to just wait it out.

    Perhaps if the big shots stopped wholesale stealing of robber shares, the market would pay more for the stock.
    I agree with the poster who pointed out the disproportionate drop in nrf/nsam price started with the filing of the proxy statements. And it accelerated with the disclosure of the shareholder votes (including notice in NYT and WSJ on top of online notice). If they gave back half the shares they took they would STILL be grossly overpaid for 2014.

  • dar200 dar200 Jul 16, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    Agree. The silence is deafening. Also, nothing from management and no management buying. At 4.55, 1.30 distribution is 28.57%.

  • dar200 dar200 Jul 13, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    75% of your retirement in one company?

    If yes, you're too stupid to be in stocks.

  • Reply to

    NRF stock price performance comparison

    by cdouprey Jul 10, 2015 12:34 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 10, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    Why assume a European percentage of cad when a company estimate has been out since February?

    Why use IYR which does not track the RMZ (which includes nrf) when VNQ does track the index that NRF is in as of 5/29/15?

    Such sloppy work trashes the credibility of the post.

  • dar200 dar200 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    Yup, it was an embarrassment. It was like Ted Bundy saying Charles Manson was a really, really bad man.

    BUT, nobody in the audience had the guts to ask whether they thought their obscenely excessive compensation via robber shares was "self-interest" at the expense of cash shareholders.

  • dar200 dar200 Jul 6, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    You will soon have about 1.3 billion less common equity in front of your preferred to absorb losses. In addition, you will have about 20 cents per common share less of cad to be subordinate to preferred dividends.

    Common shareholders get all of the NRE equity and earnings freed from superior claims of preferred holders.

    In other words, preferred holders will have a riskier position post NRE spin, as with nsam, but nsam was and is asset light. It only took about 170 million of equity out of NRF. NRE will take about 7.6 times more. You will have the same superior claim against a smaller, weaker (earnings-wise) NRF.

    You're welcome very much.

  • Reply to

    Lack of Guidance from Company

    by hsterniac Jul 3, 2015 10:23 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 6, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    From 7/3 post: "As yesterday shows, the selling ain't done.....nrf down while vnq up...again, and again and again."

    And again today. NRF down over 1% while VNQ up over .5%.....that's a telling spread. The selling ain't done.
    NSAM getting creamed. Hedgies voting with their feet.

  • Reply to

    bye bye greece

    by ruswise Jul 6, 2015 8:24 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 6, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    A guy owes a bank 100 dollars which he is unable to pay. He says to the banker, you loan me 120 and I'll pay you back 100. The banker requires essentially control over the guy's future spending such that a 120 loan can be repaid over time. Hell no, says the guy. I'm gunna have my family vote on whether we turn over spending controls to you. The family votes to reject the bank's conditions for a new loan.

    The guy goes back to the bank and says my family rejected your conditions. Now I want you to reduce my delinquent loan to 80 and loan me 130 so I can pay back your 80 with no new conditions.

    And he expects the banker to do this? If yes, Darwin should take over so this guy cannot reproduce.

  • Reply to

    Lack of Guidance from Company

    by hsterniac Jul 3, 2015 10:23 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jul 3, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    Nope. Management screwed the cash shareholders with their obscenely excessive compensation. Only 112.4 million out of 346.8 million shares (32.4%) voted for the compensation package. That leaves a population of 234.4 million share owners who could be angry enough to sell. As yesterday shows, the selling ain't done.....nrf down while vnq up...again, and again and again.

    The pending dol regulations remain a pending negative cloud over nsam. Even though nsam said retirement plans are only 40% of their sales, they are restructuring new deals into exempt form and implementation is probably more than a year away, it's a big negative on future growth. Plus, this year's fundraising has been dismal compared to what it could have been had Lieberman got the Healthcare follow-on declared effective before the initial offering sold out.

    Lots of other negatives including macro forces. IMO, it's gunna take actual positives, not talk, to turn the tide.

    Despite all the current negatives, I'm holding nrf for yield and nsam for growth.

ETP
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