This posted this morning by Zacks, that brilliant, insightful stock research company:
" By Zacks Equity Research
1 hour ago
Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO) may be one such company. The firm has earnings coming up pretty soon, and events are shaping up quite nicely for their report."
I'm sure the geniuses at Zacks are keeping their eyes wide open for the earnings report which was released on April 24. DUH!!!
NO, they said 2H. BUT, they have not even FILED the registration statement. Lieberman's record of getting registration statements declared effective in a reasonable time is DISMAL. IF they get it done this year, it will be as of the close of business on 12/31, imo.
I don't want to get bought out. I want to be holding this stock when the big production increases turn into bigger dividends.....much bigger dividends, even at current copper prices.
If and when the endgame comes (the forced buyout), it will be at a 15% to 18% premium over then current market. Somebody will sue Grupo for breach of duty by paying too low a price (a la Minera Mexico). Grupo already controls so they don't have to pay a control premium. They just have to pay enough to win the inevitable lawsuit.
Copper still has a diversification place in my portfolio, scco is still a very low cost producer and capex will decrease when production increases unless they keep going big time on increasing production, like developing El Arco.
I intend to hold.
This clipped from a post on IV. One of them is wrong.
"Deutsche Bank have included Northstar Realty Finance NRF and Northstar Asset Management NSAM onto their short term buy list. This type of call is made by the trading desk.
The analyst, Stephen Laws, has both as his Best Ideas."
Addition to RMZ will be effective for 6/1 trading. The pop may begin after the announcement on 5/12 and get bigger toward the end of May. I think you have a very safe short term profit.
I sold some etp to harvest a tax loss and bought rgp with the proceeds after the merger was announced but before the vote. Thus no wash sale. They traded like Siamese twins since the merger ratio was fixed. Merger vote was 28th. I sold all rgp on the 27th and bought 6300 etp units with the proceeds. Glad I did.
S&P is going to split reits out of the financial sector beginning in August, 2016 (I think from dimming memory).
There will be 11 sectors instead of today's 10. However, I think the new reit sector will be mostly a carve out from the financial sector where current members will mostly fill the new reit sector. If they rebalance the entire index, reits may get a slightly larger share than today, but it will be nowhere near big enough to allow nrf in, imo.
Read more carefully. I said 2Q will be a handy beat. 1Q will only be fair as the increase from the griffin shares will be partially offset by a decrease in nontraded revenue. Lieberman blew getting the Healthcare follow-on declared effective in time. Thus there were no Healthcare sales for almost 2 months. Lots of griffin proceeds went elsewhere because Lieberman didn't get the sec work done on time.
Well, since you subtracted the last dividend, you should subtract about 37 cents worth of the next dividend from today's price.
Worry not, though. The first step to adding nrf to MSCI's equity reit index is done. Next on 5/12 is the announcement, effective for 6/1 trading. DB estimates this will require a net buy of 23 million shares by funds and etfs which track the index.
Earnings on 5/8. Maybe a little dividend increase (not more than 2 cents) announced after close on 5/7. Then the index announcement on 5/12. Price could easily be over 20 on 5/13, imo. I ain't even thinkin about selling one share. At 20 with the current dividend, the yield is exactly 8%, still much too high. Maybe when the market starts recognizing nrf as an equity reit the yield will come down via price going up. Addition to equity reit indexes should speed the education process.
Not only can you vote your shares, you can email the two big proxy advisory services that the tutes have to pay attention to. Here's a clip from an article I linked on the IV board.
"Meanwhile, legislation including "say on pay" has increased the power of proxy advisory firms, especially the two biggest, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis and Co. Like the bond rating agencies of the last decade, these firms have been granted significant influence by the SEC in the shaping of corporate governance policies for all U.S. public companies."
Just google the two firms, go to their websites, use the "contact" function, and ask them to look hard at the compensation which you feel is excessive and to recommending tutes vote against it.
We retails are a pi$$hole in the snow to be ignored by management. But if the big proxy advisory house advise the tutes to vote negative, THAT's clout.
Hamo got 60.3 million from nrf (after undisclosed discounts applied to the stock) and 14.3 million from nsam.
Plus, he had 46.2 million dollars in unvested nsam shares all of which were awarded in 2014.
They did stock for stock in the completion of Minera Mexico and it cost them 2 billion. Somehow the Ireland office will fit in but I don't know how. In fact I would rather take Grupo shares than cash if it were a tax deferred merger.
I don't blame them for doing so, but they are going to cause scco to buy back as many shares as they can at the market before they have to offer a premium in the endgame.
Forgot to add: This Q dividend = 80.5 million vs 100.0 million same Q last year.
Look at the ratio...1Q 2014....100.0 + 52.5 = 152.5 total payout. Dividend = 65.6% of total.
This year 1Q 2015................. 80.5 + 370.1 = 450.6 total. Dividend = 17.9% of total.
Notice a little acceleration and shift in mix?
The forceout is coming.
In 1Q scco spent 370.1 million buying back 13.1 million shares (average = 28.25). These are approximations due to rounding. Actual will be in 10-Q.
BTW, in money....370.1 million this Q vs 52.5 million same Q last year. Up over 7 times. I'd call that an acceleration. Less than 800 million outstanding at 3/31/15.
From scco earnings release: " Operating cash costii per pound of copper before by-product credits was $1.66 in 1Q15, a 9.3% improvement,
compared to 1Q14. Operating cash cost per pound of copper net of by-product credits was $0.98 in 1Q15"
SCCO's GROSS cost is only 2 cents higher than the bloated pig's NET cost per pound. On net, it's 1.64 vs .98.
Yeah, yeah, I know they calculate differently. FCX leaves out administrative cost, among others.
They both produce all they can and sell all they produce at a price set by the world market. The only thing left to profit is cost to produce. 66 cents per pound in scco's pocket is HUGE.
Of course, the stronger the balance sheet, the cheaper the borrowing (within market limits). Plus the market has liked the deleveraging as the yield has dropped dramatically despite one paltry dividend increase in 10 years. I don't have a problem with it because the price has increased so much.
For the past 10 years I've built a yield portfolio because we live on dividends. But now our dividends exceed our normal spending by so much I've been moving toward growth stock. All of my sui is in the taxable account with huge gains so it ain't goin anywhere unless something really bad happens to sui. To me, the holding is a slow gro annuity. I have no problem with cash flow reducing debt instead of increasing dividends.