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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

dar200 285 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    2015 Preliminary Predictions

    by rogluther Dec 26, 2014 1:19 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 27, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    That wasn't a political rant. It was merely a statement of facts.

  • Reply to

    NRF or NSAM?

    by danarmstrong71 Dec 26, 2014 4:21 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 27, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    You go first. Don't forget the "and why"s.

  • Reply to

    Griffin

    by rdf780300 Dec 29, 2014 11:23 AM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 29, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    I posted that on the IV board a day or so after 12/3.

  • Reply to

    Secondary ?

    by paintedblk Dec 29, 2014 12:42 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 29, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    By definition, a company cannot do a secondary offering in its own stock. Look it up and you will learn something today.

  • Reply to

    Secondary ?

    by paintedblk Dec 29, 2014 12:42 PM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 29, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    If you want to learn from my post, then follow my suggestion......look it up.

  • Reply to

    DAR NSAM question

    by ruswise Dec 30, 2014 11:56 AM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 30, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    It's not assets, it's equity raised by nrf. Each billion of new equity issued = 15 million of base management fees to nsam. IF after tax cad is 70% of incremental revenue (will report on this after 4Q released), then 15 million of gross = 10.5 million of cad. I expect weighted average shares of, say, 210 million. Thus, 10.5 / 210 = 5 cents incremental cad per share on an incremental 15 million of revenue.

    Then are the incentive fees. If nrf cad per share in a quarter exceeds 39 cents, nsam gets 15% of the excess until it gets to the higher level of incentive fees, 45 cents. NSAM gets 25% of the excess over 45 cents. That's just some frosting on the cake.

  • Reply to

    DAR NSAM question

    by ruswise Dec 30, 2014 11:56 AM
    dar200 dar200 Dec 30, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    Isn't more than 9% tax deferred yield enough? And yes, Hamo will do something big to get the yield down, including spinning off the mortgage business.

    Also, consider the tax cost of selling in a taxable account. For the shares I have held over 1 year, the smallest gain I have is 106% and the largest is 348%. I can't think of an equity reit where I could match or beat nrf's yield on after tax proceeds. As to the short term gains, I ain't gunna giv the feds & RI 49.8% of the gain.

  • Given the price action so far today it is unlikely that I will sell any nrf or nsam today. Thus, Fidelity's summary this morning will stand for the year. The following report is from all accounts in which I have traded nrf/nsam.

    This year I sold 199,841 shares of pre-split/spin nrf, 84,974 shares of post-spin nrf and 54,541 shares of nsam, a total of 339,356 shares, all of them flippers. I now own more shares than I did at the beginning of the year (split adjusted) so that means I bought more than I sold. Several flip lots of both in the taxable account morphed into core holdings because I do not want any more short term gains this year.

    None of the sold lots were sold at a loss. Excluding captured dividends, the gain on these sales totaled 194,135, an average of 57.2 cents per share. Best year flipping nrf I've ever had. It's no wonder why I love this stock.

  • Assuming the closing prices Fidelity is reporting stand, 17.58 + 22.57 = 40.15 closing price combined.

    Total return for nrf combined for 2014 dripping with Fidelity = 57.79%.

    From July 1 closing prices, nrf= 9.85% total return vs 18.13% for nsam. Combined = 14.26%.

    Details on IV board.

  • Reply to

    NSAM

    by ruswise Jan 6, 2015 9:55 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 6, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    If you are wondering why, go read the Forms 4 which were filed last Friday night at 9 pm when they hoped nobody would notice. Obviously, more than a few noticed the obscene pillaging of giveaway shares.

  • Reply to

    NSAM

    by ruswise Jan 6, 2015 9:55 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 6, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    Because nsam got raped and nrf didn't. Remember the lessons I posted here last year about percentage ownership of insiders tilting toward nsam. It's happening, big time. Insiders are not buying nrf share issuances (thus pct goes down) and the obscene giveaway shares come from nsam.

    They should get options, not shares, and the strike price should increase 1% per quarter, compounded. Then the insiders get big bucks only if the shareholders get 4% per year on the price, and only in proportion to shareholders' gain.

  • From today's press release:

    "Immediately after the closing, the Company refinanced approximately $120.9 million of the mortgage debt on 13 of the communities, generating excess proceeds of $126.0 million, at a weighted average interest rate of 3.87% per annum and a weighted average term of 14.1 years."

    120.9 + 126.0 = 246.9 /742.9 = 33.2% of purchase price at 3.87% for 14 years. That goes a long way in making the predicted accretion from this deal. Balance of assumed debt must be that with most favorable terms. Details will be in 10-K.

    Sold the common at 50 and preferred kinda expensive vs common yield. BUT dividend on preferred will not increase whereas dividend on common will.

    This is just a super buy for SUI. Geographic diversification, 73% age restricted (for baby boomers), concentration in Florida. Just a super duper deal.

  • Reply to

    OT--buy SUI under 62.75--OT

    by dar200 Dec 23, 2014 12:04 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 7, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Told ya. 9 trading days for over 3% including the dividend.

    Those not at position limit may want to wait for 4Q earnings and first est of 2015.....I suspect another 5% in a month or so.

  • Reply to

    NSAM

    by ruswise Jan 6, 2015 9:55 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 7, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    NO

    Hamo = 1,940,671
    Tylis & Gilbert = 1,390,932 EACH
    Hess = 383,049
    Lieberman = 245,193

    TOTAL = 5,350,777 x 22 = 117.7 million.

    Of course they cover up and spread out the real cost with GAAP rules, restrictions and deferred vesting, all of which are economic fictions.

  • Reply to

    NSAM

    by ruswise Jan 6, 2015 9:55 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 7, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Just some of them. Only those with footnote (1).

  • Reply to

    Fantastic financing

    by dar200 Jan 6, 2015 5:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 7, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    If in a taxable account, you must consider the tax consequences of a sale. To illustrate, if 100,000 of sui proceeds will cause 20,000 of incremental taxes to be paid, you only have 80,000 to reinvest elsewhere.

    No investment is without risk or potential reward. The only thing certain about such a move is handing 20 grand to the governments.

    Another consideration is whether you need more income (yield). I don't which is why I am not converting nsam (with huge tax gains) into something with a much higher yield. There is a place in my current portfolio for high price growth potential instead of current yield. Ten years ago that would not have been the case.

  • While NRF looks good compared to dismal (and deserved) NSAM performance ytd, for an equity reit NRF ain't doin well. YTD price change with no intervening ex dividend days:

    VNQ ( equity reit index etf) + 4.67%
    SUI (mfg housing) +7.26%
    HCN (healthcare) +5.33%
    NRF.....................+2.10%

    I suspect some of the stink from the nsam robber rape rubbed off onto nrf.

  • Reply to

    NRF underperforming YTD

    by dar200 Jan 7, 2015 4:13 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 7, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    If you mean by "we" me, hell yes.

    NRF has a fantastic, tax deferred (imo) yield for anybody who buys before Hamo gets the yield down, probably by spinning off the mortgage business. So I see a pop to 22 when that happens. After that, imo, it's a slow growth yield hold, just like most equity reits.....get rich slowly.

    I still believe NSAM will hit 30 before year end on a great growth rate which a slow, lazy market has yet to see or believe.

    While I'm very p'od over the excessive compensation just paid, the thought of selling (other than flippers) has not even entered my mind.

  • Reply to

    Fantastic financing

    by dar200 Jan 6, 2015 5:08 PM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 8, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    I did not assume anything about a tax rate. It was an illustration and it was identified as such. What do you not understand about, "To illustrate.." ?

  • Reply to

    NSAM earnings

    by ruswise Jan 8, 2015 7:48 AM
    dar200 dar200 Jan 8, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    I had 1.23 on 12/17 and showed the calculation and reasoning on IV board.

    The new robber shares make my 1.23 now 1.20, which assumes Healthcare registration of additional 700 million of stock is effective before they sell out current authorization of 1.1 billion which was expected to be on or around 1/16.

    Yahoo shows 20 cents for 4Q. It will be 23-24 due principally to higher than expected nontraded fundraising plus a little bit from Griffin shares issued on 12/3.

ETP
55.94-0.35(-0.62%)Mar 26 4:04 PMEDT