Read more carefully. I said 2Q will be a handy beat. 1Q will only be fair as the increase from the griffin shares will be partially offset by a decrease in nontraded revenue. Lieberman blew getting the Healthcare follow-on declared effective in time. Thus there were no Healthcare sales for almost 2 months. Lots of griffin proceeds went elsewhere because Lieberman didn't get the sec work done on time.
S&P is going to split reits out of the financial sector beginning in August, 2016 (I think from dimming memory).
There will be 11 sectors instead of today's 10. However, I think the new reit sector will be mostly a carve out from the financial sector where current members will mostly fill the new reit sector. If they rebalance the entire index, reits may get a slightly larger share than today, but it will be nowhere near big enough to allow nrf in, imo.
I sold some etp to harvest a tax loss and bought rgp with the proceeds after the merger was announced but before the vote. Thus no wash sale. They traded like Siamese twins since the merger ratio was fixed. Merger vote was 28th. I sold all rgp on the 27th and bought 6300 etp units with the proceeds. Glad I did.
Addition to RMZ will be effective for 6/1 trading. The pop may begin after the announcement on 5/12 and get bigger toward the end of May. I think you have a very safe short term profit.
This clipped from a post on IV. One of them is wrong.
"Deutsche Bank have included Northstar Realty Finance NRF and Northstar Asset Management NSAM onto their short term buy list. This type of call is made by the trading desk.
The analyst, Stephen Laws, has both as his Best Ideas."
I don't want to get bought out. I want to be holding this stock when the big production increases turn into bigger dividends.....much bigger dividends, even at current copper prices.
If and when the endgame comes (the forced buyout), it will be at a 15% to 18% premium over then current market. Somebody will sue Grupo for breach of duty by paying too low a price (a la Minera Mexico). Grupo already controls so they don't have to pay a control premium. They just have to pay enough to win the inevitable lawsuit.
Copper still has a diversification place in my portfolio, scco is still a very low cost producer and capex will decrease when production increases unless they keep going big time on increasing production, like developing El Arco.
I intend to hold.
NO, they said 2H. BUT, they have not even FILED the registration statement. Lieberman's record of getting registration statements declared effective in a reasonable time is DISMAL. IF they get it done this year, it will be as of the close of business on 12/31, imo.
This posted this morning by Zacks, that brilliant, insightful stock research company:
" By Zacks Equity Research
1 hour ago
Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO) may be one such company. The firm has earnings coming up pretty soon, and events are shaping up quite nicely for their report."
I'm sure the geniuses at Zacks are keeping their eyes wide open for the earnings report which was released on April 24. DUH!!!
It goes ex dividend on 5/14. Cad per share will only be fair. Nontraded sales will be way down from 4Q.
Big acquisition fees from Healthcare 4Q and early Jan cash will be in 2Q, not 1Q.
Current 21.50 is 21.40 ex div. Your break even is 22.75 = a 6.3% rise from 21.40. I would not do it.
That's not the way ordinary income is calculated. A distribution reduces your tax basis in the partnership which increases the gain you will recognize upon sale. It also increases your cash and lowers the market price of the units, all other market forces being equal. However a distribution, per se, does not come back at you as ordinary income.
The ordinary income portion of your gain is determined using the look-through method. Your sales price of your unit is grossed-up to a hypothetical sale price of all the units (market cap of units). Total liabilities are added to the market cap of partners's equity to arrive at a hypothetical sales price of all the assets. The partnership then determines the amount of partnership gain which would be ordinary income in such a hypothetical sale of all the assets and then divides it by the units outstanding. That is your ordinary income per unit sold. The same is done with "unrecaptured section 1250 gain" (so-called 25% gain). The balance of YOUR gain, if any, is a long term capital gain if your units were held more than one year.
All gain attributable to "section 1245 property" (of which the partnership has a lot) is ordinary. That's why such a big portion of a recognized gain is ordinary. The depreciation on this property reduces ordinary income (and your basis) and thus comes back at you as ordinary income. The distribution by itself is not the trigger. The big trigger is section 1245 recapture.
Price is too low for both. Not even considering selling any flippers at today's prices, including the 5,000 nsam I bought for under 20 a few weeks ago. The likelihood of my selling any of the core positions is even more remote.
I will not repeat some posts I made on the IV board.
NRF had a lousy quarter with hotels. Read the CLDT earnings press release for their comments on joint venture hotels. This can only improve, imo.
My big relief is that Griffin was not dilutive. When they announced the acquisition, nrf predicted cad neutral, but there were skeptical questions from analysts on the acquisition CC.
NSAM had a dismal quarter sequentially, all caused by a huge drop in fees from the nontradeds. Thankfully, the CC revealed that 2Q nontraded fees will be 30 million higher than 1Q. NSAM not worried about dol proposed regulations, a relief.
NRF has huge pipeline which means more equity issued which means more fees for nsam. NRF not having a good price increase so far today relative to other equity reits, so it may be a bargain for yield investors. I expect NRF will be added to RMZ with announcement May 12 and effective for trading on 6/1. DB estimates joining RMZ will require a net buy of 23 million shares between 5/13 and 6/1.
IMO, all one needs with nrf/nsam is patience. 2Q will be better than 1Q, especially for nsam.
The discount drip price is 95% of the average of the daily highs and lows for the 5 trading days ending the day before the pay date. Since the pay date is 5/15, the calculation period begins today, 5/8, and ends with 5/14.
I will report the discount price here after the close on 5/14.
I agree. I would never buy one because the fees are way too high.
Nevertheless, the lack of daily trading (gyrations) is an attraction to a lot of people who can't stomach the volatility. They put their money in for a monthly check (or drip) and something happens in 5 to 10 years. Lack of daily valuations is a blessing for them.
Ya gotta read The Street's insightful comments on NRF today, posted at 5:17 pm.
Do they really expect people to pay for this kind of research when they can't even get the company right?
Just keep going up the ladder until you get into the discount program or talk to Chuck, whichever comes first.
All they have to do is register your shares with the drip administrator. Others at Schwab got into the discount program after they made "the call".
First learn the definition of "pipeline" in a reit or acquisition context. Then read the transcript on seeking alpo.
Then illuminati's knowledge will be illuminated.