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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

dar200 412 posts  |  Last Activity: 55 minutes ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Reply to

    Reverse flipping for offering discount

    by dar200 Aug 8, 2014 2:54 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 11, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    Griffin has nothing to do with it. Try some forward thinking from the earnings press release. They had 282 million of unrestricted cash at 8/5. We do not know how much principal is to be collected or how much in securities they will sell.

    They need about 120 million for the August dividends, 167 million to close on the industrial deal, 100 million to close on the London deal.....387 of disclosed near term needs with 182 million of free cash (Hamo likes to keep at least 100 million of cash).

    So, 387 - 182 = 205 deficit. Yup, they can use their lines of credit. That buys time for Hamo to get the price up some more, but he needs new news to do that. I conclude that Hamo will wait if he can produce new news. If not, the offering comes now, imo.

  • Reply to

    mine in cananea

    by jonathonwithano Aug 9, 2014 12:21 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 11, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Just found a report:

    RENO (Mineweb) -

    A second chemical spill has taken place at a North American mine, withMexico’s Procuraduría Federal de Protección al Ambiente (PROFEPA, attorney general for environmental protection) ordering Grupo Mexico subsidiary Southern Copper to make “full remediation” for a 1.4 million cubic feet spill of sulfuric acid into the Bacanuchi River.

    Authorities imposed restrictions on the water supply to several towns and cities in northwest Mexico after the spill allegedly turned the water orange. The National Water Commission said it was monitoring chemicals in the Bacanuchi and Sonora Rivers following the spill at the Buenavista copper mine in Cananea, south of the U.S. border in Arizona.

  • Reply to

    mine in cananea

    by jonathonwithano Aug 9, 2014 12:21 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 11, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    The fact that chemicals are in a river in Sonora does not, in itself, establish that they came from SCCO's mine. Can you cite any reports on where the chemicals came from?

  • Reply to

    Reverse flipping for offering discount

    by dar200 Aug 8, 2014 2:54 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 11, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Well, they released their new presentation this morning. To me, that makes a tonight offering less likely. Hamo can buy time to get the price up before he offers by using his lines of credit. We'll soon find out. He has today and tomorrow to announce and still have the trade date before the ex date.

  • Reply to

    KMP

    by armando_mountlongo Aug 11, 2014 9:08 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 11, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    It is better to make money and pay the taxes than not make the money. I have 5,800 units of KMP. I'm pleased with the gain, but a 2014 closing just kills my tax plan for the year, including converting 48,000 worth of nrf pre spin from a regular IRA to a Roth IRA. The gain on KMP may cause the tax cost of the conversion to be too high.
    If so, I will elect in 2015 to "undo" the Roth conversion. BUT, if the value in the Roth is much higher than 48,000 (it is 56,000 now), I will pay the tax on 48,000 in order to have, say 70,000 (I hope) never taxed again. The nice thing about the Roth conversion is you can wait until you know your actual incremental tax before you decide whether to undo it.

  • Midpoint annualized cad still 1.64.

  • Reply to

    Told ya 50 cents

    by dar200 Aug 6, 2014 4:27 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 10, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    Just like the political snakes: "Mistakes were made"....never "I made a mistake". Shift to the impersonal.
    Never, "I was confused." Always, "there would be no confusion".

    I don't know how old you are or what you do for a living. Remember this: I'm not the only boss who would fire you in a second for trying to weasel out of your own screw up by trying to shift responsibility to someone else.

    I hope you learn this the hard way. Maybe then it will stick in your coward's brain.

  • Reply to

    Told ya 50 cents

    by dar200 Aug 6, 2014 4:27 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 10, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    Is your reading comprehension level below that of kindergarten?

    Still trying to pass responsibility for your own failure on someone else. The "part" about NSAM was they completed the spinoff.

    The fact of your dismal reading comprehension does not bother me nearly as much as your lack of backbone to just admit you screwed up and the responsibility for YOUR screw up is ALL YOURS. Grow some balls. Man-up. It's ALL on you

  • Hey, Hamo. Pay attention. You are losing the price of NSAM for lack of information. NRF closed at 16.80 on 7/1. NSAM closed at 19.20. Last Fri NRF closed at 18.08, up 7.62% after you told us the Griffin deal would not initially be accretive to cad. Nothing has been said about NSAM's cad with the griffin issuance and NSAM closed Fri at 18.33, down 4.53% from 19.20.

    You know the market is lazy and slow, including the analysts. They need some spoonfeeding. Here's how to do it.
    Monday after the close, announce NRF's new offering of between 30 and 40 million shares. You should net about 16.85 per share after the dividend and discounts. So, 35 million x 16.85 = another 590 million of equity which means another 8.85 million of annualized cad to nsam, about 3.5 cents per nsam share. Add this to the 6.6 cents from the Griffin deal means over 10 cents added to the 66 cent midpoint which was estimated in May. This on an annualized basis.

    So after the new offering, NRF posts its new presentation. At the same time, NSAM should issue a press release announcing:
    1. It's own presentation has been posted to its website, showing growth in annualized cad per share.
    2. Nsam intends to pay a 10 cent dividend with respect to 3Q and 4Q. (This closes the "no decrease" question).
    3. The NSAM board approved a 150 million stock buyback program.
    4. The 2014 budget for fundraising in Healthcare and Income 2 has increased from 800 to 900 million.
    5. Maybe say something good about progress with the RXR offering and Aerium, if you have any.

    Hamo, you know the market hates uncertainty. It ain't smart enough or fast enough to figure it out themselves. Yeah, yeah, I know forward estimates ain't certainty. But estimates are a helluva lot better than the void of info which exists now. SPOONFEED THEM!!!!.

  • Reply to

    mine in cananea

    by jonathonwithano Aug 9, 2014 12:21 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 10, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Google translation:

    Confirm spill of toxic chemicals in Sonora River
    Authorities confirm that the collapse of a mining Represo used sulfuric acid caused that reached the stream that crosses several municipalities.

    Does not mean it came from Burnevista.

  • Reply to

    Million dollar trailers

    by dar200 Aug 8, 2014 12:02 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 8, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    Do not be too surprised if NRF offers 60 for SUI, 70% stock and 30% cash. If Hamo can do 4 billion for griffin, he can do 3 billion for SUI. Get rid of the outrageous compensation paid Shiffman et al and such a deal might be accretive to nrf.

  • In an IRA where income taxes do not muddy up the economics, I just sold nrf at 18.09, netting 18.0883.
    I'm hoping an offering comes before ex-dividend so I can buy them back after the market discount hits the price.
    If no offering comes I will buy them back anyway before ex div as long as the price is below 18.28, the price at which the go forward yield is 9%.

    I see it as a 1% downside with a 3.5% upside. In any event, this experiment is only 7% of my nrf shares, so it will not kill me to be wrong. It's just another flip try only this time backwards.

  • Reply to

    Interesting tidbit on NSAM liquidity

    by newguy7001 Aug 8, 2014 2:36 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 8, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    That's the opposite of my very limited selling experience with nsam. I may have only 3 closed flips of 5,000 shares each. I found the buys took many executions to fill....from a memory which doesn't care about the fact except at the moment....I think one buy took over 30 executions to fill. On the sell side, I've had 5,000 shares go off with 3 or 4 executions.

  • WSJ has lead article in Mansions section of today's print edition about manufactured housing going upscale and up-price in manufactured housing communities. WSJ insists on calling them trailers in trailer parks. Part of the push was baby boomers selling expensive houses and buying manufactured houses with all the goodies.

    I think Shiffman had some comments at last CC about people buying more expensive new manufactured homes. This is good. The more one can pay for a house, the more they can pay for land rent

  • WSJ has lead article in Mansions section of today's print edition about manufactured housing going upscale and up-price in manufactured housing communities. WSJ insists on calling them trailers in trailer parks. Part of the push was baby boomers selling expensive houses and buying manufactured houses with all the goodies.

    I think Shiffman of SUI had some comments at last CC about people buying more expensive new manufactured homes. This is good. The more one can pay for a house, the more they can pay for land rent.

  • Reply to

    Cost basis after spin

    by extra_e_mail Aug 7, 2014 9:40 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 8, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Holding period of nsam is exactly the same as holding period for nrf on a lot by lot basis. If you bought a lot of nrf on 11/12/08, you bought an identical lot of nsam on the same date, adjusted for the reverse split, of course.

  • Reply to

    mlv

    by octopusink Aug 7, 2014 10:26 AM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 8, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    Of course there will be a follow-on offering soon. The question is before or after the ex dividend date.
    They only have 242 million of unrestricted cash and need nearly 120 million for the dividends. Before they announced their new line of credit, I was 95% for an offering announcement so the trade date would be before 8/14, the ex date.

    Now I'm not so sure. Hamo doesn't like the current price of 17.50 plus 50 cent dividend. The new line of credit gives him time to move the price higher if he has some good news soon. Otherwise, we get the announcement no later than next Tuesday after the close....25 to 35 million shares.

  • Reply to

    Told ya 50 cents

    by dar200 Aug 6, 2014 4:27 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 8, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    They worded it just fine. You could have comprehended what you say you read. Geeze, can't anybody accept responsibility for their own screw-ups without trying to shift responsibility to somebody else? Been taking lessons from the socialist pig?

  • Reply to

    Cost basis after spin

    by extra_e_mail Aug 7, 2014 9:40 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 8, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    The basis of nsam is determined with respect to the basis in nrf. Same with holding period. The date acquired of nrf attaches to nsam.

  • Reply to

    Cost basis after spin

    by extra_e_mail Aug 7, 2014 9:40 PM
    dar200 dar200 Aug 8, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    Fidelity also dis 53.33333% to nsam. They used the ratio of the closing prices on 7/1......19.20 + 16.80 = 36.00. 19.20 / 36.00 = 53.3333%.

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