You made my day, Ken. Teaching retails how to do it is my primary goal. The little guy CAN be ahead of the market on fundamentals by working hard and fast. I've proved that right here over and over for the past 2 1/2 years.
My mantra: "Learn how to learn and you can learn anything."
Agreed on shorts capping the pain at 18 or 19 plus premium. Today about 20,000 contracts on top of 39,000 open interest. Assuming all of today's are opening, close to 6 million shares are covered.
Since the this contract expires 11/21, I expect the writers are going to be called away. I hope a bunch of them are naked. Naked call writers buying to deliver on an assignment has the same effect as shorts buying to cover. Their choice is buy to deliver which drives price up or borrow which makes them short into a rising price.
Could be a nice squeeze on Fri, 11/21. I'm thinking about keeping yesterday's "mistake" flip lot until then. Depends on what happens to price when presentation is released.
Here's most of the blurb:
Eckert commented, “Q314 was nothing less than transformative for NRF. Not only did the company spin off its internal asset manager, but it inked deals that would make it what we deem to be a leading player in some of the most lucrative niches of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. These would include select service hotels and healthcare facilities. Yet NRF shares languished for a good part of September and then almost all of October, They have, however, rebounded in recent weeks. Although the early part of their demise may have rate-related, we believe it may have been attributable to the perception that an early September equity capital raise was dilutive.”
Well, Ken. Ya got another 2% in 2 days for waiting. Much more to come, imo. Just sit tight on the flippers as I am doing. Slow, lazy lemmings haven't had their realization moment yet.
The cited blurb continues,
"The $23.50 valuation - implying 36% return potential when including the dividend - is a conservative one, says MLV, noting the use of the lower of two property portfolio valuation metrics, and the further discounting of that by 15%. Also, MLV has only given credit for NRF's ownership stake in current portfolios, and nothing for the likely ability to boost the size of these."
Different methodology. Looks like they read my posts last week. But, they are faster than the other analysts who have not yet spoken about last week's info. Lazy. Waiting for the spoon in presentation slides.
10-Q has been filed.
3Q buyback was 10.149 million shares costing 323.4 million, a weighted average cost per share of 31.87.
Combine this with Larrea's purchase and something is highly likely:
They know something is coming which makes these big purchases now very profitable in the not too distant future. Grupo is known for its over-reaching greed (in my opinion). It's on display now.
S&P announced yesterday it is creating Real Estate as a new sector in its indexes effective around Aug 2016.
The S&P 500 now has 10 sectors. Real Estate makes 11.
Within the sector, there are industry groups.....Equity Real Estate and Real Estate Management & Development.
Members of this new sector and industry will be announced later, but well before Aug 2016.
It would be a helluva boost to be added to this new sector. Size matters here, an argument against splitting up the equity assets. Adds an argument for spinning off mortgage business. Gives both time to bulk up.
While I doubt this is a near term market mover, I would bet this becomes a subject of discussion at a board meeting pretty soon. Can and should NRF and NSAM configure themselves to get in this index sector by its inception?
It's all right here, with specifics, facts and calculations. All you have to do is read my posts beginning with early December, 2013. Actually, you should first read NRF's last 10-K and then the NSAM prospectus. THEN read my posts and it will all be clear as a bell.
Thank you. All shareholders who have the opportunity should evaluate a sun community with an owner's eye and report the results to this board.
Ken, did you stay there? If yes, how was the reservation process? Did you tell manager you were a shareholder? If yes, I hope it was toward the end of your visit.
Owners or renters of manufactured houses should also report their impressions.....you can put your customer hat on then put your part owner hat on.....opine on the place from two perspectives.
Occupants can also report news events here.....like notice of rent increase. What was the percentage increase? Report policy changes here also. It's nice to know operational tidbits before they show up in quarterly reports.
Nice details in both. First for nsam so I suggest all read
NRF got 268.6 million for the 15 million shares issued directly, an average of 17.9067 from 17.95 price to underwriters. Subsequent to 9/30 but before the ex date they closed 5.3 million of the short sale for 93.8 million of proceeds, an average of 17.6981.
Did not take 18.37 when I had chance because I believe when the short term profit-taking is done I'll get a fast grand out of both buys.
The good news is nsam recovered early to all time intraday and closing highs.
Yup. Fidelity has no skin in the game. They just buy until the drip dollars are gone. Then they charge the client the weighted average cost per share acquired. It makes no difference to them how high or low the average cost is. To them, it's an in and out of the drip dollars on the pay date.
They do not buy on the settlement date. The appropriate day to measure whether Fidelity's price to client is closer to the hod or lod is the trade date, which is today. As of now, hod = 18.80 and lod = 18.26. Today has been a steady drop in price. So when we see our drip price we will know whether Fidelity bought in morning or afternoon, assuming no big increase going into the close.
Not the first time I have guessed wrong and won't be the last. My in was just a head fake by sellers. Stop for a while, let the price go up a little, then step on the gas getting out.
Nevertheless, I have sold 258,815 shares of NRF so far this year and have not lost a penny on any of them. I just have to wait.
As soon as traders saw no strong push up at the open the profit-taking selling started. Looks to me like sellers finished in nsam. Have not seen a stop yet in NRF at 18.44.
If you want a dinner trade in NRF wait to see a turn up in price, like 18.49 from 18.44 if that is the low. 18.44 may not be the low, so watch level 2 for the upturn from whatever the low may be. I see now it is 18.43 so sellers are not done.
The pros who want to buy are waiting for sellers to exhaust themselves chasing a falling bid. Then the buying starts. Wait for price to turn up a few cents. Then buy for a dinner trade (or a small flip).
NRF will effectively control the to be formed joint venture with AHI via Flaherty.
" Following the acquisition by NSAM, NSAM's investment will be structured as a joint venture ("AHI Ventures"), with the principals of AHI (owning approximately 49%) and Mr. James F. Flaherty III, one of NSAM's partners (owning approximately 5%). The transaction is anticipated to close shortly following the closing of NorthStar's merger with Griffin-American (the "merger") pursuant to the merger agreement. AHI Ventures will also issue a warrant to Mr. Flaherty that will permit him at any time during the five year period after the closing to invest up to an additional $5 million in AHI Ventures at a valuation 27% higher than the initial valuation. Mr. Flaherty will also be granted a 5% profits interest that would entitle him to receive 5% of capital proceeds of AHI Ventures after a return of capital to the initial investors (NSAM and the principals of AHI) and current cash flow distributions. At the closing of the transaction, the parties will enter into an amended and restated limited liability company agreement of AHI Ventures (the "LLC Agreement") which will provide for the organizational, economic and governance arrangements of the joint venture and the rights and obligations of each of the joint venture members."
Like Hamo, Flaherty takes care of Flaherty.
No. NSAM does not have enough people to manage griffin properties effectively.
Eventually, imo, there will be a merger of AHI into NSAM. At the same time, other griffin healthcare properties will merge with a spun-off NRF Healthcare, but I don't see this happening soon for income tax reasons.
BTW, a publicly traded NRF Healthcare then becomes the liquidity event for nontraded healthcare reits via merger for publicly traded stock.
Hamo is building a healthcare property empire and a much bigger nsam will be the manager.