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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

dar200 353 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 54 minutes ago Member since: Nov 16, 1998
  • Reply to

    Amazed how they

    by lipkalr Oct 23, 2014 2:31 PM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 23, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    That's ok. Post all you want. I thought you had seen something I had not. I ain't perfect and am eager to learn from others.

    Yahoo estimate for 2015 of 1.91 is average of two guesses....1.51 and 2.30. Wow, that's useful.

    2 cents next May unless Hamo can already see slam dunk accretion for the year out of griffin instead of neutral. There will be an increase in 2015 as Hamo wants to keep a streak going. Don't have a feel yet of whether it will be quarterly or annually, but I'm leaning toward annual beginning in May.

  • Reply to

    Amazed how they

    by lipkalr Oct 23, 2014 2:31 PM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 23, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    Where did you get forward pe under 10? Last I saw was 2H 2014 x 2 (to annualize) which had a midpoint of 1.64, which x 10 = 16.40.

  • Short smackdowns are alive and well. NSAM......18 cents in 20 minutes. IMO, gotta be a short attack because profit-taking numbers are not around.

    Don't get scared and sell nsam. Don't sell out of frustration. IMO, the market has not seen nsam 2015 because the market is too lazy and slow to do the work. Hamo hasn't spoonfed on 2015 yet.

    Look forward on nontraded reit fundraining. Income 2 will soon be into its stride as it has passed critical mass.
    Healthcare would have sold out in 2015 but for the pending follow on offering of another 500 million primary and 200 million for dripping. As the prospectus states and as they did with Income 1, drip authorization can be switched to primary. I can imagine 800 million from Healthcare alone in 2015 plus 600 million from Income 2.
    They only get half a fee from rxr deal and I have no feeling how fast that will sell. But, selling 1 billion (out of 2) in 2015 is the equivalent of 500 million full-fee nsam sales. So, 1.9 billion (800+600+500) raised in 2015 for nsam would not surprise me. At 3% of equity, that's 57 million of annualized revenue. IMO, market doesn't have a clue about this.

    I know Hamo is grinding his teeth over the current prices of both. I suspect he will pull as many rabbits out of the hat as he can for upcoming earnings and CCs.

    Just be patient.

    PS; Cudda taken a less-than 3 hours 1.5% this morning on yesterday's flip buy. Not enough relative to what I think we'll get on 11/6. Plus I expect ex date will be 11/12 or thereabouts with 11/21 as the pay date.

  • Filed about 15 minutes ago.

    Collected 602.4 million through 10/21 vs 561.4 thru 10/3 in supplement 11....41.4 in 18 days for 2.300 per day.

    The S-11 disclosed 552.2 thru 9/30, so 21 days in Oct = 50.2 million in 21 days for 2.390 per day.

    In 95 days from 6/28 thru 9/30, 209.9 was collected for an average of 2.209 per day. Thus, so far in Oct is running 8.2% higher per day than 2Q. IMO, no sweat for 900 million in 2014 without rxr deal.

    Also, after nrf completes the griffin merger Healthcare is buying 100 million worth of the equity for cash, about 8.3% (100 million / 1.2 billion = 8.3333%) thru the formation of a new partnership. Sale is at nrf's cost, including acquisition expenses. This takes a little cash pressure off nrf in exchange for at cost ownership. Since nrf is no longer Healthcare's sponsor, I think nrf should have charged a 3% to 5% acquisition fee.

  • Reply to

    Thank you

    by lipkalr Oct 21, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 22, 2014 6:49 PM Flag

    Readers who want to trade with me.

  • Bought a flip lot just before the close at 17.7015. I consider this buying 30.15 cents worth of accreted dividend (if I hold for 3 weeks) and 17.40 for the stock. So, if I hold, yield is over 9% either way it's calculated. 1.60/17.30 = 9.25% or 1.60/17.7015 = 9.04%.

    IMO, stock rollover was caused by shooting in Canada, a terrible event, but not one which should tank the stock market. Naturally, nrf was one of the hardest hit despite equity reit indexes ending approximately flat.
    IMO, a typical lemming knee-jerk, the kind I buy.

    I'm likely to take 2 to 3% if I get it this week. If I guessed wrong and have to hold, for a whole year I pay Fidelity 1,522 of interest on this lot while I collect 8,000. It's easy to risk a flip with odds like these.

  • Reply to

    Thank you

    by lipkalr Oct 21, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 22, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Not knowing what I mean means you need to retake "REITS 101" as many times as you have to until you do know what I mean. That will prepare you to be a more knowledgeable reit investor. It also means you would not have asked the question if you did know what I meant.

  • Reply to

    NRF/NSAM press release

    by jab2212 Oct 22, 2014 10:07 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 22, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Your source has been asleep for a while. It wasn't a press release. It was an 8-K filed with the sec on 10/6.

    "On September 30, 2014, NorthStar Real Estate Income II, Inc. (“NorthStar Income II”), through a subsidiary of its operating partnership, originated a $144.0 million senior loan (the “Senior Loan”) secured by a portfolio of 28 commercial properties located in Woodbury, New York (the “Portfolio”). "

    Gotta watch out for those third party reporting services. IMO, it's best to go straight to the source document as it is faster and more accurate. Nevertheless, thanks for the effort. Multiple posters bringing facts to the board makes it a better board.

  • Reply to

    40 cent beatback on nsam

    by dar200 Oct 21, 2014 2:29 PM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    Yup, 64.4% of reported volume sold short today. 571k out of 886k sold short. No surprise to me. Today's pushback just reeked of short attack since the probability of a profit-taking wave seemed low to me.

    Confirmation of the shorts did it is actually good news. It looks like the momo has turned and shorts worked like hellbent to keep a lid on it. If correct, there should be much more money on the buy side than the shorts can muster to counterattack.

    We'll see how this plays out. I'm in no hurry.

  • Reply to

    Thank you

    by lipkalr Oct 21, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    I pressed the iggy button on cr@p gaap a long time ago. Cash is king.

  • Reply to

    hello.....

    by cjgrz Oct 21, 2014 12:47 PM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Thank you for this insightful, thought-provoking post.

    Don't worry. Soon you will be in third grade.

  • Looks like shorts are leaning hard on today's rise. 18.15 to 17.75 as I type. This is where a buyback authorization would make them look over their shoulder to see if the hammer is coming at their heads.

  • I could be taking flip gains today in both nrf and nsam, but I'm not taking in either.

    With respect to nrf, we'll be ex dividend in about 3 weeks. First, I want the dividend. Second, the ex dividend drop will be quickly forgotten. Third, maybe a little pop because Hamo has every incentive to do what he can to get the price up.....yield (cost of common capital) much too high PLUS number of shares to be issued in the griffin merger...the higher the price (until the cap), the fewer the shares.

    With respect to nsam, I suspect Hamo is grinding his teeth over the multiple, BUT, part of it is his fault for not increasing estimated annualized cad in the August presentation slides. I have the feeling the next one will include higher fees from nontraded reits, estimated fees from griffin equity and estimated fees from closing the forward sales contract.....and maybe some estimated fees from the rxr deal. Plus, the market will finally be able to see in black and white that nsam has real (not pro forma) cad earning capacity. Plus, they have no downside in announcing authorization to do a buyback. Authorized to buy is not the same as buying, but with the authorization, the shorts never know when actual buying will begin or end.

    In short, we are only 3 weeks or so from quarterly reports and ex dividend, with nrf getting the bigger dividend boost and nsam getting the bigger multiple boost.

    Thus, ain't selling the flippers because I think I will do substantially better by holding for another month or so.
    If I change my mind I will post that here after I sell the flip lots.

  • Reply to

    Thank you

    by lipkalr Oct 21, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    Can we be married to the same woman and not know it?

    More than 40 years ago I put wife in charge of household checking account and household bills. She resisted electronic payment until I made her do it. Now she pays everything she can electronically and loves it.

    First I showed her how to transfer money from Fidelity to the checking account. I sat next to her and walked her through each step. Then one day I asked her to transfer 3,000 from the taxable account at Fidelity to the checking account. Then I walked away from her . She protested my walkaway and I told her to make believe I was dead. She did it. Soon, she must take her first MRD from her IRA. I intend to walk her through how to do it and I'll tell her she must do the next one by herself. I know she will take notes.

    It took me a few years to get wife to understand market fluctuations are not profits or losses. They are just changes in value. The profit or loss is not real until the position is closed. She also understands that we will be in the stock market for the rest of our lives, so we hope our time horizon will be very long. She no longer freaks out with fear on bad market days like last week.

    I sit with her to go over a monthly report of portfolio performance, income and expenses so she understands just how much excess income we have. She is involved with the estate plan---especially to understand it.

    Even though I run the investment show, I might die first, so I constantly try to keep her abreast of our finances which I have greatly simplified during my gradual retirement. Ya just have to keep at it, a little at a time, but frequently.

  • Reply to

    Thank you

    by lipkalr Oct 21, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    ROC is not taxable until cumulative exceeds your cost of a lot of stock. Then the excess is long term capital gain.

  • Reply to

    Thank you

    by lipkalr Oct 21, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    There are two ways of doing that....pro forma (before you borrow) and after the fact (the debt is there). I suggest you NOT approach her on a pro forma basis.

    I am as positive as positive can be.....99.999999% probability that if I proposed a plan to borrow to buy dividend stocks (and flip), wife would be against it. A pro forma profit is not real in the debt-timid mind, no matter how probable it is, but the proposed debt is real and scary. The downside dominates the brain cavity, so much so the upside cannot enter the thought process.

    After the fact, it's real. She wasn't thrilled about a much bigger tax bill to pay off the debt, but that would not have dissuaded her from paying it off. It was the dividend list that did it. OK, honey, we sell these stocks to pay off the debt and we give up 100,000 of dividends so we can save 30,000 of interest. We give up 70,000 per year of dividend profit so you can feel safe and secure. THAT's what bought reluctant consent.

  • Reply to

    added more this morning

    by ruswise Oct 15, 2014 10:12 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    When you really know your company and its industry, it's easy to be confident that a given selloff on no company or industry specific bad news is an irrational selloff. THAT'S when buying on the volatility is the easiest.

  • Reply to

    Thank you

    by lipkalr Oct 21, 2014 9:28 AM
    dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    Collect 9% while paying 4.5% = 4.5% profit on the broker's money. Pay 40% in income taxes = 2.7% profit after tax. Do this on 100,000 = 2,700 annually to blow on dinners out. At 100 per pop, that's 27 dinners out, more than 2 per month. Tell your spouse NRF is paying for dinner. It changes their attitude about using debt.

    Once upon a time my risk-timid wife noticed the margin debt and went into a tizzy of fear over being in debt.
    So, I told her I could repay all the margin debt in 10 minutes at the keyboard by selling the following list of securities. I showed her the list with proceeds well exceeding the margin debt. She said, "You sold way too much to pay off the debt." Then I told her about the income taxes we would pay in order to repay the margin debt. "Oh, darn", she said. Then I showed her a list of dividends we would not receive minus the interest we would not pay. The net was a decrease in our pre-tax income of 70,000 per year.

    "Want me to pay off the debt right now?", I asked her. "NO" was the answer.

  • dar200 dar200 Oct 21, 2014 8:42 AM Flag

    The spread between 40 and 50 is 2 on nrf and 8 on nsam. It all depends upon nsam's multiple.

  • dar200 dar200 Oct 20, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    If you were as perceptive as you pretend to be, you would not have asked the question that way. I still believe a combined price of between 40 and 50 by year end with nsam accounting for most of the range.

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