Don't know whether it's the stink from arcp that's rubbed off on nrf this morning or the stigma of mortgage reit in a rising rate environment
Things are really bad at arcp when they have to check to make sure they really own the real estate their financials say they own.
The annualized dividend will be 1.68 after May is announced. Capitalized at 6% = 28, 6.5% = 25.85, and 7% = 24. I expect the dividend yield will fall to between 6 and 7% once the market recognizes nrf as an equity reit with a mortgage kicker. That may take spinning out the mortgage business, in which case I am referring to a combined price.
Annualized post spin cad for 2014 may be 1.76. I do not remember making a 2015 cad per share prediction for nrf yet. Perhaps you can identify the post which caused you to say that.
I also have no problem with your opinion that my opinion is too high.
Thanks for my growing belly, lunco. A prediction is merely stating a belief that an opinion will happen. The only way to expect someone else to also believe it will happen is to state the basis for the opinion. Then the reader can evaluate the sufficiency of facts and the validity of the reasoning. Sharing the facts, which are sometimes tea leaves and inference therefrom, teaches others how to do it. That's my ultimate goal. A retail investor with a reasonable amount of intelligence and a willingness to work hard CAN be ahead of the market with the right type of company.
My mantra: Learn how to learn and you can learn anything.
I don't do year end predictions. If nsam touches 30 on any day between now and 12/31/15 I win regardless of the price at the close on any day. Same applies to 22 and 26.
For dividend capture flip. Ex div 65 cents on 12/29. Hold for div & a little pop on top. Good for a safe 2%, IMO.
If wrong, hold for earnings which includes an estimate of 2015, which will be a very nice growth year in cad per share. They may also announce May dividend increase with 4Q earnings.
Decent flip or safe hold. A winner either way, imo.
Just saw 17.77 + 22.23 as last price at the same time. There's 40 before the end of the year as I predicted last spring, just as I predicted 17 before the split spin and 6/30 as the spin date, not to mention I predicted 50 cents in May and August last March after first presentation and also predicted a combined 50 cents in November before the 40-10 was announced.
I predicted 40 to 50 combined by 12/31/14 with the spread being mostly determined by the nsam multiple which has been disappointing (to me). I attribute it to a slow, lazy market which has failed to see (so far) nsam's 2015 cad of 1.23. That will change with the first presentation (aka spoonfeeding) in early March. NSAM will be at least 25 within 10 days of its release.
I also predict 28 for nsam after May presentation release and at least 30 before 12/31/15.....all barring some macro disaster like all-out war in Ukraine or middle east. Also, NRF at 22 by 12/31/15, not so much from cad per share growth, but from the market finally treating nrf as an equity reit. Spin off the mortgage business and 22 becomes 26.
Those who have been reading me long enough can vouch for the track record of predictions. Remember this a year from now. I will.
The dividend was raised to 63 cents in April, 2005, then to 65 cents in April, 2014.......9 long years between raises while the insiders, including directors, have raised their pay by an obscene percentage.
BTW, mission accomplished Friday night.....rare prime rib for me ( so big I took some home) and baked stuffed shrimp for wifey. Thank you. We toasted to Northstar (for my dinner trade and another flip) and to kenpalley for treating us to dinner. Merry Christmas!!
Hey, bogus, if yahoo deletes the below copy 7 paste, read my 12/11 post, "one year from spin announcement" (or something like that).
The spinoff of nsam was announced on 12/10/13, after the close. Pre-split nrf closed 12/10 before announcement at 9.94. It closed on 12/11 at 11.95, up 20.22% on the announcement.
In a small IRA where I have held nrf since July, 2012 with no activity other than dripping at Fidelity, the value of the nrf position at the close on 12/10 before the announcement was 19,923. Since then, the only activity in this position has been the split/spin and dripping, so this is a theoretically perfect total return calculation dripping the Fidelity way.
Yesterday, nrf in this account closed at 19,030 and nsam closed at 21,864, a total of 40,894 from 19,923 one year earlier, a total return of 105.26%. I'd say the spinoff was a big success.
As to your broker, I'm up a little better than 40% this year, due, in large part, to nrf.
Another all time high today. My core is so big (third to nsam & nrf) I just flip now. Bought 1,000 yesterday at 60.728 and sold 'em today for 62.248. Overnight 2.5% is fine with me.
No all time high is made without prior all time highs. 4Q earnings will beat (Shiffman a sandbagger). Real pop will come from first est of 2015 affo. Dividend will be increased in April. Based on cad, I would expect 4 cents. BUT, shiffman will go cheap (2 cents) because he can get away with it. The 2 cents not added to div will buy more properties.
NSAM ripe today for a trade (not necessarily a flip). Will be 25 within 10 days of Mar presentation, 28 after 2Q report and 30 before 12/31/15. All absent some macro disaster.
"yes I sold my GA shares. Broker advised it is going nowhere."
And I suppose the broker recommended you put the proceeds into something that pays the broker a fat commission.
You had time for sucker commissions and fees in GA2. How many years did you hold for your 15% profit on top of your 6.65% dividend? Then make believe you put the same dollars into nrf on the same day you put your dollars into GA2. If you are unable to do the hypothetical nrf investment calculation, tell me the date you put your money into GA2 and I will tell you what your nrf would be worth on 12/3, the day you cashed out.
If you do, Ken, just tell them to hold it at the cash register and I will pick it up. Thank you.
Nice day for nsam. I suspect we will see many more as the realization of 2015 cad per share sinks in to slow, thick skulls. Yesterday I attribute to Auntie Janet as no morning pop on 1 billion announcement. Today, the macro winds were blowing hard, but it did not do much for nrf. I sensed on nsam early in the day more a lack of sellers than a crush of buyers. But, the momentum carried right into the close. I hope we see more tomorrow.
Thank you. Next time I go in I will ask for it.
IMO, AI has little price upside. Nice div, but that's about it. ARP is way oversold, imo, but is blowing in the oil winds. Big upside when (not if) oil is back over 80 eventually to over 100. May take a while. Currently pumping wells will keep on pumping, but new fracking wells will not be drilled with 58 oil. Soon, old wells decline in production with not enough new wells, so supply goes down and price goes up. The market will reach equilibrium but it will take time.
Today's press release says 2.3 billion raised. I get 2.284, which rounds to 2.3 and estimate they will be about 2.347 billion by 12/31 . They get a full year's worth of fees on the 12/31 cumulative x 3.5% = 82.1 million. At 5 million per day on existing products, they raise 1.8 billion in 2015. If evenly, they only get a half a year's fees, so 900 x 3.5 = 31.5 million = 113.6 million of fees from existing products. Don't know what RXR will contribute, but it's only half a fee. I don't expect anything from Ziff because nsam is so slow getting registration statements declared effective.
Net commissions on existing products, 1.8 billion x .5% = 9 million. Nothing from rxr or ziff here.
Nrf baseline at 182 million. Add 8 million for 2015 equity issued and 10 million in incentive fees = 200 million from nrf. This includes nothing from rxr and aerium exceeding 10 million. 3Q incentive fees = 1.3 million on 43 cents on 200 million shares. Add cad neutral on griffin and remainder of forward sales = 300 million shares. Thus, no increase in per share 1.3 / 200 x 300 = 1.95 x 4 Q = 7.8 million. Add a couple of pennies per share = 10 million easy.
So, 113.6 + 200 + 9 = 322.6 revenue the way I define revenue using net commissions instead of gross. CAD = 70% (I'll be more sure when 4Q is published) = 225.8 / 200 million weighted average shares = 1.13. Add 10 cents from unconsolidated ventures = 1.23 x 25 pe once the growth realization sets in = 30.75 for the stock.
Slow, lazy market doesn't have a clue. No pop today on raising 1 billion so far this year because the general market cannot correlate nontraded fundraising to daily rate to next year to cad per share. Too slow. Too lazy. Gotta be spoonfed a few times before it sinks in.