We know: 1) palladium is in deficit with price forecast of steady to rising. 2) palladium exists in the current mine at commercially recoverable levels. 3) the new shaft and lifting system works, whatever delays occur during start up are fixable as it relies on existing proven technology. 4) the shaft will reduce costs substantially and increase margins. 5) the Capital required to make the final push to profitability is not that great vs return on investment . Your thoughts?
I think PAL management and BAM are counting on producing enough Palladium to boost there receivables to a level to unlock the remaining $20 million in there existing credit facility. Watch the price of Palladium. If it stays above $700 IMHO they have a good chance because the new shaft greatly reduces the cost of lifting the ore out of the mine improving margins, cash flow etc.
Not quite sure how they do things in Canada. However, they may be talking to their attorneys about issuing a statement after the market closes to make certain they are in compliance with U.S. security laws.. A 30% one day loss in shareholder value is noteworthy if there is no news. This statement could simply say that there have been no unusual events to cause the loss in value. If there is something adverse brewing and they don't issue an 8K disclosure they will violate security laws. Not good.
BK will be resisted as long as possible IMHO. Remember they just had an Investor Day touting what a great investment NAP is. Well if they go BK now the attorneys will have a hay day and everbody gets sued so they can conduct discovery. The Board, the Company and yes BAM as well. In the earnings conference call they said they were activly looking at financing options, I think this is the route they are exploring not an additional broad share offering. If the Company issues a press release saying they are looking at all options then I think they are putting themselves up for sale. BK is the last desperate option and one that will be costly to them as well as the shareholders.
I think analysts upset because management was so upbeat on investor day and then bam a few days later a liquidity squeeze. Didn't management see this coming? Of course they did but we're not being transparent on investor day. Now they won't disclose planned production guidance because they don't know how much money they have for capex next year. They are badly in need of a "white knight".
Based upon 3rd quarter results and the conference call it looks like FTR expects to have a strong 4th quarter. Once investors see that free cash flow will easily cover the dividend for the next 3 yrs. look for a break out to $5.50. CTL would love to own FTR sometime in the future IMHO but Maggie will want at least $8.00 a share because that was the level of the stock when she made her promises the 18 cent quarterly dividend was safe. So it will will a while before the take let's say 3 to 5 yrs. A good return while we wait and a double in share price from here. A lot of investors will get rich by owning FTR.
Shorts will have a hard time covering at current price levels simply because so many speculators got on the wrong side of this trade based upon commentators such as Cramer and analysts at Bank of America and other Wall Street firms. Their clients are facing a disaster because FT R is finally executing it's plan
One of the most encouraging take always to me was the dividend dropped to 43% of free cash flow for the 3rd quarter. The ship is turning into the wind and we may have some smoother sailing ahead.
I will keep beating the drum that lower oil prices in the near term will hurt small producers such as AXAS. I continue to recommend taking some profits here, the only difference now is the stock is now 5% below when I went short and started posting.
Good idea! Large volume today on a down day so quite a few investors taking my advice to lock in profits on
at least some of their position. AXAS has been very good to me this year on the long side ( I bought a used jeep with 29000 miles with my profits). So now I'm trying the short side. I really don't like playing the short side that much unlike the short sider guru Jim Chanos .....but so far so good. The U. S. Oil inventories continue to build so for now that's not a good sign for AXAS. GLTA
Boone Pickens may be right 12 months from now and then I will be long AXAS. Right now I'm short and already in the money with the recent sell off. I plan to ride it down awhile longer before I cover.
The analysts have a dismal track record no better than flipping a coin. AKS is a solid company producing excellent steel products. No worries mates!!