Looks like the market is not interested in a bottom yet. Still above average volume as investors simply want out . Vonage management has not made the case that Nexmo is a good acquisition. In fact their total silence is deafening.
My new book is entitled "Vonage for Dummies" Here's a quick peek at Chapter 1: "Acquisitions are Good for You." It is a well known fact that investors love acquisitions so at Vonage they are making sure everyone gets a double helping. It is not wise to digest the 2014 plate of acquisitions to show investors that management knows what it is doing and it's acquisitions are in fact accretive to earnings. No that's the old fashioned way. At Vonage it's best to throw a "Hail Mary" to see if No. 11 (remember 1 + 1= 11) can catch the ball for a touchdown! Don't ever forget these are smart folks and what's a 40% drop in shareholder value when you can "go for the fences" just like old Babe Ruth. The old Babe used to say "Never let the fear of striking out get in your way". stay tuned for Chapter 2.
Management has been poorly advised. At the time of the announcement financials on Nexmo should have been made available. It doesn't matter if it was a private company they should have been generated as if Nexmo was doing an IPO. As I have said before the analyst community is skeptical of VG management and will need proof of value before they will give their stamp of approval on the deal. VG needs to quickly set up an analyst day and lay out the Nexmo financials, the basis for synergy savings and the marketing case why 1 plus 1 = 11 as management so famously said. Investors in public companies always have the right to sue the Board of Directors and the Company if they believe the Board has violated it's fiduciary responsibility. Is a 20% drop in value enough to trigger lawsuits? Maybe not but I would think if VG loses more than 30% of it's pre announcement value the lawyers will begin to circle.
Agree. But it may take a quarter or 2 to convince analyst community that this was a smart play. Remember management raised guidance AND held EBITDA. Sorry but the analysts don't like/trust management. Not one positive note or comment that I can find on the acquisition. Maybe someone will get on board and tell their clients VG is a screaming buy at this level and we will see a pop above $4.50. But a breakout to the upside doesn't seem to be in the cards now.
simple. A) Analysts think they overpaid for $125 mil in revenue and don't like the cash drain from the credit facility plus paying partially in stock. B. Worried about how long it will it take management to leverage the new asset to be accretive to earnings. Conclusion: sell and reinvest proceeds in a less risky play. You may agree or disagree but the hot money is moving on.
"Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned, Nor hell a fury like a woman scorned" William Congreve in The Mourning Bride. 1697
With no buyers momentum building to find a stategic partner and take the company private. Small premium to current price to ward off law suits .
On quartery conference call management said May was looking like 0.039 per share. No reason to believe things got worse. In fact, suprise maybe 0.05 per month by 4th quarter.
It's because Chinese imports are not declining as fast as projected. June AKS guidance critical to next AKS share price rally. Merrill won't stick with $9 price target much longer if they don't see AKS improving . GL
Adjusted earnings excluding non-recurring gains were 27 cents per share. Source: earnings release and AP. Nobody is "dumb" when it comes to MREITS they are governed by complex rules. GL
Just remember neither analysts or economists have a clue as to the direction of the economy. It was predicted over and over again in 2014 that interest rates would go up, instead they went down. Also, name one analyst, or economist who predicted that oil would lose 50% of it's value. Zero, nada, zip. Best bet is to look at the customers of AKS. Auto sales are booming, and home construction and remodling are gaining traction. So will AKS. $8.00 to $9.00 is likely this year. Just sayin.
Just enjoy the money you have made. If you read the press release written by the lawyers (Skadden Arps) you will find all of the correct due diligence verbage. The target price is more than 20% higher than the day earlier closing price, and more than 35% higher than the past 90 day average price. I'm sure all the avidavits are in place which shows a range in value for SIMG from the investment banking community with $7.30 on the high side. These legal reviews seldom result in lawsuits and if suits it's even more rare that they result in eventual success. We are dealing with a small value take over of hardly more than 1/2 billion dollars being represented by one of the best and oldest M & A law firms in the U. S. (Skadden Arps) . So either sell your shares now to the arbs or wait for your check. Either way you win.
let's do the CPR math. I am going to use averages for the sake of illustration, in real life CPR's are built from the pool level up. Having said that the averages can provide valuable insight into any portfolio. So the annualized CPR was 8.7% times the portfolio balance of $15,421.9 billion equals( rounded) to $1,342 billion in payoffs over the next 12 months. The weighted average purchase price is 105.5% (5.5% over par) times $1,342 billion equals $73.81 million divided by 12 equals a projected $6.15 million premium write off per month. In addition, the $1,342 billion run down in portfolio means gross income is reduced by $1.342 billion times weighted average net coupon of 3.47& or $46.57 million (gross) or $3.88 million per month. . So the total effect of the CPR is about $10.0 million per month or less than 2%of total gross income. .Very manageable. So after expensing repo interest and monthly hedge cost (based on past experience) should lead to the strong possibility of returning to a 15 cents quarterly dividend in the coming quarters. See you next month.
Excellent update. they have expanded the portfolio and if you do the math with around a 1.40 spread they can easily support a return to a 15 cent quarterly dividend. CPR rates behaved better than expected and with the Daragi QE program boosting interest rates (our 10 yr treasury at 1.94% vs 1.70% last week) refinance pressures may begin to ebb. I'm adding to my position starting today. GLTA
Wow at 8.7% for the portfolio much lower than one would expect. The last time rates were this low the CPR was 13% to 16%. the 15 year portfolio is showing it's true colors and will help protect Book Value. GL.
Don't worry Barclays is doing the thinking for you. Most likely already had a buyer when they approached SIMG, Now it's just a matter of price so the SIMG Board doesn't get sued for selling too cheaply. Gotta love the nactivist investors they undoubtedly were behind putting SIMG in play. $8 to $9 a share not impossible because no debt and an easy all cash deal for $700 million or less. Should be cashing our checks soon!!