Looks like the market is not interested in a bottom yet. Still above average volume as investors simply want out . Vonage management has not made the case that Nexmo is a good acquisition. In fact their total silence is deafening.
My new book is entitled "Vonage for Dummies" Here's a quick peek at Chapter 1: "Acquisitions are Good for You." It is a well known fact that investors love acquisitions so at Vonage they are making sure everyone gets a double helping. It is not wise to digest the 2014 plate of acquisitions to show investors that management knows what it is doing and it's acquisitions are in fact accretive to earnings. No that's the old fashioned way. At Vonage it's best to throw a "Hail Mary" to see if No. 11 (remember 1 + 1= 11) can catch the ball for a touchdown! Don't ever forget these are smart folks and what's a 40% drop in shareholder value when you can "go for the fences" just like old Babe Ruth. The old Babe used to say "Never let the fear of striking out get in your way". stay tuned for Chapter 2.
Management has been poorly advised. At the time of the announcement financials on Nexmo should have been made available. It doesn't matter if it was a private company they should have been generated as if Nexmo was doing an IPO. As I have said before the analyst community is skeptical of VG management and will need proof of value before they will give their stamp of approval on the deal. VG needs to quickly set up an analyst day and lay out the Nexmo financials, the basis for synergy savings and the marketing case why 1 plus 1 = 11 as management so famously said. Investors in public companies always have the right to sue the Board of Directors and the Company if they believe the Board has violated it's fiduciary responsibility. Is a 20% drop in value enough to trigger lawsuits? Maybe not but I would think if VG loses more than 30% of it's pre announcement value the lawyers will begin to circle.
Agree. But it may take a quarter or 2 to convince analyst community that this was a smart play. Remember management raised guidance AND held EBITDA. Sorry but the analysts don't like/trust management. Not one positive note or comment that I can find on the acquisition. Maybe someone will get on board and tell their clients VG is a screaming buy at this level and we will see a pop above $4.50. But a breakout to the upside doesn't seem to be in the cards now.
simple. A) Analysts think they overpaid for $125 mil in revenue and don't like the cash drain from the credit facility plus paying partially in stock. B. Worried about how long it will it take management to leverage the new asset to be accretive to earnings. Conclusion: sell and reinvest proceeds in a less risky play. You may agree or disagree but the hot money is moving on.