The analysts have a dismal track record no better than flipping a coin. AKS is a solid company producing excellent steel products. No worries mates!!
pocilujko- I am a private investor who was on the long side of AXAS and rode up to the $2.50 level and cashed in my profits. Once AXAS got to $3.00 I got back in to ride AXAS back to $2.50 level based on over supply of oil driving prices down and negatively affecting producers such as AXAS. If I'm right I double my profit if I'm wrong I will cover before cobined trades brekeven. That's it. No great mystery.
If it is a buy out it would be a rumor that has been around a long time and should have happened at $2.00 not $3.00. News of a gusher? There are also rumors that the Bakken play is having faster well depletion than originally forecast. This is what makes a market.
Even low $90's will hurt AXAS because of shipping costs out of North Dakota. Until pipelines can replace trains Baaken producers will suffer. I won't be greedy and will cover my short position around $2.50. If AXAS continues to fall I would be back in on the long side at around $2.20 based on economic conditions at that time. Stay tuned.
Once again the pros get it wrong. Deutsche Bank and its analyst Jorge Beristan continue to look foolish with a sell rating and $5.50 target price. AA has rallied 15% since the sell announcent. I hope very few pepole shorted AA based on their advice.
Sorry guys I'm back in on the short side. My bet is new production won't keep up with falling oil prices. Next support level for crude is $85
Thanks monkeywrenches. I'm not saying Cooperman has any inside information BUT as a major shareholder they pick up the phone when he calls. CIM was one of his top 10 picks in 2013 and now also in 2014. As I said before "follow the money"....
We need the accounting types to weigh in. BUT because time has shown the portfolio for delinquencies and voluntary playoffs is performing as well or better than when purchased their accounting treatment which caused the restatement fiasco may have been just fine. CIM may have been forced to change their accounting methodology for no good reason based on actual portfolio performance. This explains the filing delays for financials. If FASB agrees a new dawn has arrived for CIM and paves the way for the purchase of the remaining portfolio by Anally. WOW!!
Two main takeaways: 1) The portfolio is being allowed to run off. One reason may be because they are delinquent on filing financials so they can not acquire loans in many states. They did 3 whole loan securitizations in 2012. None in 2013. 2) the portfolio that is remaining is performing at the same level or better than when it was purchased especially when it comes to voluntary repayments. (Not foreclosures). So what does this mean? They owned and own a deeply discounted portfolio so voluntary repayments are coming in at 100 cents on the dollar so they are experiencing gains thus the cash on hand. The dividend seems to be protected. When they emerge from bringing all their financials up to date we will most likely be in an interest rate environment the same or highr than our current environment. CIM will be well positioned to expand the portfolio through leverage at higher spreads than their contemporaries will be experiencing. The filing fiasco has occurred in a rising interest rate environment creating an opportunity for CIM not to be burdened with legacy loans from an ultra low interest rate environment. If CIM becomes current on filings sometime in 2014 they will be one of the best positioned MREITs for the future. This is probably what Cooperman sees. With a slowly recovering economy over the next 5 years CIM could quite easily double or triple in value. If you follow Cooperman you will be following the money.
thank you cheetah for selling . I was one of your buyers. Great dividend with a bright future as the portfolio is hedged and future spreads will widen with mortgages having higher interest rates while the Fed keeps short term rates low. I hope you didn't take a loss. LOL
Here's why: residential revenue will show continued improvement with business not far behind. Let's say residential down 0.1 q/q and business 0.3 q/q. Cost cutting after 3 quarters stays on track to be more yr/ yr than drop in revenue increasing margins. If shorts start to panic we will rally close to $5 again. If not $4.50 IMHO
The day after Cramer says "I wouldn't touch it" FTR is up in a down market. Cramer continues his magic touch. 100% of the time that Cramer has said something / anything negative about FTR it ralies. This is uncanny. At least he is not financially hurting his follwers lately quite so much as when he said SELL- SELL-SELL. last year. BUT it must really irk him that he has never been correct on FTR.
Finally! Cramer said something negative about FTR. We should rally within the next week. His track record is 100% for the past 1 1/2 yrs. FTR has always rallied after Cramer's negative comments. Regretably, he only said "I wouldn't touch it!" Rather than "SELL SELL SELL" because we have always had the biggest rallies after his buzzer punching sell rants.
Good for you. the five year time frame argument considering depreciation makes a lot of sense. It always amazes me that people think FTR is "different" than other companies. That in a few years they will hit a wall of debt and bingo it's all over. These folks have never paid attention to the real world. Long before the debt is due FTR will be deluged by Wall Street firms to roll over their debt and companies will plead with them to "let me run the book". I have been there and done that. So debt is not the problem. Focus on the metrics. Is line loss revenue being offset by internet revenue. Are margins increasing as the business is right sized by cost controls. If you see these trends emerging you could have a $8 stock. Maybe not next year but in 5 years? Absolutely.
We will see. Interesting FTR presenting at another conference on Oct 5th. I think they are trying to telegraph flat residential revenue on Q/Q basis. OR surprise residential revenue increase. Still uncomfortable to be a short with all the metrics improving and a secure 10 cent dividend. With the Vz acquisition Maggie dealt herself a tough hand but is starting to play it better IMHO.