Many retail investors watch media to buy/sell but institutions won't. If iPhone5S and 5C really sell well, we should see APC.F (Apple trading in German) rise up big. Institutions have their channel to get real sale figure for them to operate. For big institution like GS, JPM, they can act on German and enjoy push up in today's US market. Up to now, Apple in German has dropped more than 1%.
It is normal for a company to hint (cannot announce for legal reason) crowd on shortage to push the to buy quickly. I have checked some shop around me. What I found is that no shortage on iPhone5S. As I read this board, I am not unique.
SSNFL.PK (Samsung) is doomed to margin squeeze, so does AAPL. Thanks to GOOG and Linux that we can purchase smartphones cheaper and cheaper. In Android world, there are few differentiation. Any new software feature faces a 3rd party equivalent in Google Play. For hardware, other than full HD display, others can match all Galaxy S4 feature (perhaps non touch slide not yet). SONY, Huawei, LG, ... all come with 13M camera. Now, SSNFL.PK understands that unless they can open up new ways of revenue, all hardware makers will become PC makers. SSNFL.PK is now challenging some areas such as online store and advertisements.
So, bad news for Android hardware maker a good news for AAPL? NO! GOOG's business model has put an army of hardware makers to fight AAPL. Other than new CPU, iPhone5S is no where near Galaxy S4 on hardware functions. GOOG doesn't care income from Android but just needs to lock in its Internet monopoly. GOOG's business model is called - less than free - pay you to use its software.
Unsecure bondholders not just get 0.04. They also get new Kodak stocks. They will enjoy another journey of what current share holders (soon will be wiped out) suffered. There is no future of new Kodak as current management is still there.
As posted before, in my humble view, DDD rises on SHORT SQUEEZE. Just check statistics from Yahoo here, average daily volume is about 6% of floating shares. In some days, ~20% floating share changed hand. It is a sign of lacking long term bullish big money buys but many retail investors and short term money play. SHORT interest is very high. It is not right time to SHORT until many are SHORT squeezed out. For LONG, I would only play base on short term SHORT squeeze.
As you said, it is not new technology. Yes, there are some niche markets but not for all like Internet. Furthermore, barrier of entrance is very low as there are many Chinese machines already.
It is not just ARMH vs INTC; it's a group of companies vs INTC. INTC builds on a business model of heavy gross margin to pay for its huge overhead. The ARMH group is much efficient. INTC has to make sure every nodes are in best condition which is almost mission impossible. For the ARMH group, they can pick the better one among TSM, Global foundry, UMC, ... on wafer fab and ASX, SPIL, ... on chip packaging. Also, these companies have far less incentive as INTC to be top heavy on management actually slow down development.
No, as I stated, unless SHORT squeeze is over, I won't. NYSE will release July SHORT interest soon. Let's then check if SHORT squeeze is completed. Data shown in mid June, there were 25.14 million share SHORT interests (total floating share only 82.69 million).
From data, to me, it is horrible that a stock's average daily volume ~5% of floating share and some days, ~20% share changed hand. To me, it is a sign that not enough long term bullish big money commitment. There are way too many retail investors involvement - both LONG and SHORT. If I am correct, this stock moves as first squeeze out SHORT then remaining LONG (who failed to pullout at top) will be slaughtered.
Unfortunately, those who thinks 3D printing is more hype than real industrial revolution may be correct on this front. However, too many SHORT actually helps LONG. My view on 3D printing is that it is for niche markets only plus barriers of entrance is low (already ways too many Chinese 3D printers now).
I am interesting to stocks like DDD with such a high level of retail investors and short term money involvement.
Just check Yahoo finance,
1. Share outstanding: 92.91 million (82.69 million floating)
2. Average daily trading: ~4.66 million (many days above 5 million shares, some day even exceed 15 million share)
3. From June 14 data, SHORT interest: 25.14 million
From my humble opinion, most recent upward momentum is from SHORT squeeze. Average daily volume close to 6% of floating shares. Some day, just in one day, 20% of floated shares change hand. This is not a sign of shares been sucked by big money. This stock's rise is not due to long term big money buys.
For coming SHORT interest data release is important. If retail investors continue to SHORT base on its poor fundamentals, there is room to rise. If we see clear signs of retail investors are squeezed out, the bull run is likely over. Then, it is best time to SHORT.
It is great to see so many negative opinions around ARMH and bullish on INTC, all base on speculation rather than truth. ARMH's risk is not from INTC but US stock crash, I mean overall market crash. However, with its sound fundamentals, it should bounce stronger than others in every major bounces.
ARMH wins on business model. Under ARMH ecosystem, device makers get 1. Low cost CPU 2. Multiple suppliers of CPU. Now, INTC wants to fight this trend. I saw most INTC bulls focus on INTC's new product and technology. At the same time, never mentioned ARMH's new products (IP). They also tend to dismiss as hocks every time a breakthrough announced on wafer manufacturing from foundries like TSM.
ARMH's 64 bits A53 and A57, especially A57 poses strong threats even in INTC's high end server market.
SSNFL.PK(Samsung) has two lines of tablet - Note line (high end) and Tab line (mid end). Its flagship Note 10.1 tablet uses Samsung's 1.4GHz quad-core Exynos 4410 CPU. For its tab line (A9 based processor), current Tab 2 10.1 use NVDA CPU. It uses CPU from different vendors. Even if the rumor approves true that Samsung use INTC CPU in tab 3, my answer is "so what"?
For SSNFL.PK(Samsung), from my humble opinions, first, it has to hedge on different technologies in case it becomes mainstream. Last year, it came up with a MSFT Window phone(A TVIS), so? I haven't seen Samsung heavily promote A TVIS at all. Second, SSNFL.PK knows far too well that AAPL is about to move its CPU production out. It is not right time for SSNFL.PK to boost wafer productions now. It is better to purchase CPU from others, then, boost its own CPU productions in the pace of AAPL pull out.
I really love to hear INTC's mobile move will eat into ARMH market share. It creates another buy opportunity. As long as ARMH holds its trendline, it is all right. Unless you just purchased after recent 10% jump after earning report, I don't see a problem. Many ARMH owners have decent gain now thus it is normal for them to pull out to lock in profit.
Fundamentally, in my humble opinion, INTC has lost the war from strategic point. It is not technology but ARMH falls into right business model at right time. Most market analysts talk about technology. Forget not, in past MOT's 68030 was much better CPU than INTC's 486 at that time but MOT linked to AAPL then while INTC linked to MSFT. Although AAPL's Macintosh was the first computer comes with icons interface and mouse, as John Scully (he fired Jobs) refused to license its Finder OS out and insist to sell both hardware and software, AAPL was cornered. CPU war between then MOT and INTC was done by AAPL's decision, not which CPU is more powerful.
I am a technical person, not a MBA. It is against conventional wisdom in my circle to criticize INTC's movement now. INTC's typical technical world responses - R&D, R&D, R&D, .... to more powerful CPU is praised by analysts and technical plus academics.
Under current ARMH model, CPU licensee can only create limited differentiation thus CPU price is checked. Does smartphone maker like to appease a CPU supplier like INTC (write standard and no viable alternate) or like many CPU makers with limited differentiation to appease them? If QCOM doesn't behave, they can easily switch to NVDA, ... even Media Tek. INTC's manufacturing and process R&D are not as efficient as TSM. Furthermore, R&D cost of TSM is shared by many. Now, INTC's big overheads actually works against it.
What I expect (might be wrong) is that analysts keep praise INTC's new CEO (insider) on new technology to beat ARMH. This makes some people hesitate. Eventually, sale data will prove otherwise. Bingo!
ARMH wins on business model. It is not technology. INTC focuses on R&D to make new chips would go nowhere other than burns out cash.
Different CPU makers license ARM core to design their own CPU. With the same core, differentiation is limited thus mobile device makers enjoy multiple suppliers and price war of suppliers. Can INTC sell CPU at these prices while maintain its traditional margin - I see the chance near ZERO. If INTC cuts margin, it earns less thus still no good for stocks.
In my humble view, INTC's huge overhead actually works against it in mobile CPU war. Furthermore, Android basically targets ARM chip. Some software needs to "Port" to run on devices with INTC CPU. ARM core CPU makers use TSM, etc. foundries thus R&D cost on manufacturing are shared. As we know that traditionally, TSM is far more efficient than bureaucracy laden INTC.
As current share will be cancelled, even for speculative trades, what point to LONG? If someone SHORT but have enough to maintain margin to the day of cancellation, doesn't mean he/she cannot lose? So why people still place bet? any faint hope current share will not be cancelled?
Second question, as share cancellation announced but new share have not been issued yet. By what point to discuss Kodak's business outlook? If they are good, benefits go to current bond holders who will receive new share. Bottom line - there is nothing to do with current share holders.
Of course, some Kodak employee will be able to keep their jobs just don't know how long as there are not much left.
As I read from media, current EKDKQ shares will be cancelled, why people still trade. Yes, it is day traders' game but if this stock is definitely zero, why should anyone pay 0.15 to buy? On what hope regardless how slim, current share will not go to zero?
For new share holders (current creditors), they have higher priority than current share holders plus their bonds are not honored, why do they want to give anything to current share holders?
For bond holders who bought at face value, the best case for chapter 7 is that they get what they originally promised. If there is not enough assets, they get less but still get some thing. However, for a few speculative buyers (such as some hedge funds), who bought Kodak bonds at deep discount, even a partial payment might give them a decent return.
Bond holders are ahead of share holders, even ahead of Kodak's unsecured suppliers who in turn ahead of all shareholders.
It is different - for speculator, it is EKDKQ - buy/sell/short/cover for short term gain. This penny stock can bring them fortune or disaster. Discipline is very important(especially stop loss) or lose shirt is very likely.
For gambler - name is not important, buy at this price, expect the stock to worth 100 some day. Well, how many people hit jackpot?
For trapped share holders - it is Kodak. Wake up!
Google+ poses biggest threat to Facebook, in my view.
The war - most familiar with Facebook and not all friends want to move v.s. Google+ has far more function than Facebook.
Fujifilm is successful in production printing and other digital devices. Thanks to management, EKDKQ has no match to Fujifilm anymore.
INTC enjoys writing standard for PC hardware. Competitors like AMD has to follow with limited room of creativity. Therefore, even occassionaly, AMD came up with better CPU, INTC could easily overun it.
Now, ARM is new hardware standard writer(replacing TXN/QCOM) in smartphone/tablet market. Making it even more sweet for consumers:
1. ARM only provides core design
2. NVDA, QCOM, AAPL, TXN, Samsung (pleaset tell me tick), ... design chips based on the core design thus there are limited differenciation thus chip price war among QCOM, NVDA, ..(AAPL?Samsung for internal consumption)
What to do with INTC --- A LOT because tablets replacing desktop/notebook. GOOG does far more damage on INTC than AAPL. Android is open while iOS not, even though according to a Bloomberg report that AAPL is considering to use ARM based CPU in iMAC.
I see INTC get into the foundry market as a desperate move. If INTC also design/mfg/sell an AMR based chip, it it not writing standard but one among QCOM, NVDA, ....
Sentiment: Strong Sell
In my humble view, now Apple management are "top Everleague graduate". They are doing everything correctly in market of 10-20 years ago. They want to:
1. Protect products ever sold in market -- afraid of let iPad kill iMac
2. Learn too much from "experts"
3. Increase market share at all price
4. "Manage" customer expectation and demand.
While Jobs developed iPhone and iPad, he kept asking people around "what to make you like a product" -- from a user point while ignore supply chain, engineering, business, ... input. I saw no impressive new function coming out recent versions of iPad and iPhone. I don't see any reason that I need to have a new iPad to replace my iPad2.
I use iPad and still love it. At the same time, I have an Android phone (not from Samsung). I really disappointed that:
1. AAPL refuse to implement DLNA and force people to buy an iTV (most highend Android phones support DLNA)
2. Create special charging/connecting (most Android phone simply use USB)
3. Not finding a way for corporation to implement local setup for companywide use without leave source in Apple sever
4. Not support a docking statiuon to allow users to "dock" and then use mouse/keyboard/screen --- 3/4 allow iPad to replace notebook/desktop in office environment
5. Android device makers are working toward 3/4, althought MSFT might be a bigger loser but AAPL will miss lots of opportunity
According to a Bloomberg report, AAPL is considerring use ARM Cortex based chip in iMac. Graduately, chips based on ARM design. I think that it is GOOG, AAPL, and phone makers' interest to see ARM based chip grow:
1. Everyone lisence from ARM thus differences between different chips suppliers are limited thus chip makers (QCOM, NVDA, etc.) are forced to price war. If they use INTC chip, this benefit is not there.
2. Now ARM Cortex A50 design is good enough to be used in PC, not just tablet
3. Little barrier of entrace for new players to supply ARM based chips - ARM is happy to lisence. Of coure, GOOG is happy on more competition
4. For PC makers, those chip makers have no leverage
Not just INTC, MSFT is also threated as Android has high probability to replace Windows.
If US goes so called fiscal cliff, for stock onwer, those who owner a stock more than 1 year will be impact most. Now, for those who own EKDKQ more than 1 year, there is NO capital gain. For short term traders who made money from EKDKQ, tax increase is moderate.
Sentiment: Strong Sell